The Brexit Thread

[wee-toon-red]

An interesting piece from Common Space on Boris' deal's potential impact on the union:

On examination, it's clear that, in all the important ways, NI will be closer economically to the EU than the UK under Johnson's deal. 

While NI will be officially part of the UK Customs area, it will in all practicality  be within the EU Customs Union, with goods checked at points of entry between NI and mainland UK and paper work required on movement of said goods; regulation of goods in NI based on EU rules; taxes collected on goods imported from the UK to NI which are "at risk" of going onto EU territory (and later re-funded by the UK Government if they don't leave NI for the EU); and alignment between NI and EU farmers based on the Common Agricultural Policy.

While the NI Parliament will get a vote four years into the new arrangements, if it voted to end them, the EU would have equal weight to the UK in working out what happens next. So Stormont's power is only unilateral in the sense that it can re-open a new negotiated process, one which the UK is not in full control of. 

Johnson has also argued that NI will also "benefit" from any trade deals the UK strikes with other countries, such as the US. But again that's not quite true, as any deals which contravene the EU-UK deal will not apply to NI. So if chlorinated chicken turns up in Glasgow supermarkets, it doesn't mean it will also be in Belfast ones. 
 

Analysis: If this deal goes through, Northern Ireland will now occupy a between space, economically integrated into the EU while politically tied into the UK. Inevitably, this fosters an environment in which fissures and tensions become a permanent feature of the constitutional settlement. 

There's an obvious democratic deficit - NI will be governed by economic rules it largely has no say in. And as the UK and EU regulatory and trading models drift apart, there will be a political pressure in both directions, with republicans arguing the logic of a united Ireland is clearer than ever, while unionists push for a reform or break with Johnson's deal to align NI and the UK again. 

What does it mean for Scotland? The knock-on effect on Scottish politics of the NI arrangements is likely to be hugely significant for a long time to come. 

First, it busts some unionist attack lines on Scottish independence. If no customs checks are needed on the border between NI and the Republic of Ireland, then it's self-evident that this would also hold true for a Scottish and English land border as well. If it's possible for NI, which is still within the UK, to have different arrangements with the EU than the rest of the UK, then why wouldn't this be possible for an independent Scotland? 

The argument can also now be made that Northern Ireland is put at a competitive advantage over Scotland by these arrangements. NI could potentially become a hub for EU-UK trade, especially in the EU to UK direction. 

Finally, there is a deeper, more philosophical point to be made. It could be argued that Johnson's deal is a constitutional starting gun on the UK state's break-up, since never before has there been such de-alignment between one part of the UK and another. When Johnson argues that he will oppose any attempt to break up the UK from the Scottish Government, the retort could be: 'you have already broken it, we're just finishing the job.'

[Orraloon]

I would say that Ireland's relative prosperity has more to do with the fact that they are independent from England. Beng in the EU has helped as well. They are Independent in Europe. Now, where have I heard that before?

[ParisInAKilt]

In terms of ordinary people’s lives, in what way is Ireland more prosperous than Scotland? 

[Caledonian Craig]

Well one thing that blows this theory of non-independence out of the window if you are in the EU is how this deal progressed. First BJ had to have talks with Irish PM Leo Varradkaar to thrash out a provisional agreement with him. If Ireland had no independence then the Irish government would have been an irrelevance much like the Scottish government is in this union over Brexit.

[Orraloon]

53 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

In terms of ordinary people’s lives, in what way is Ireland more prosperous than Scotland? 

I didn't mention "ordinary people". I'm just talking about GDP per Capita which one measure of the relative prosperity of different countries.

 

[ParisInAKilt]

13 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I didn't mention "ordinary people". I'm just talking about GDP per Capita which one measure of the relative prosperity of different countries.

 

It wasn’t a direct reply to your post 

[Orraloon]

30 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

It wasn’t a direct reply to your post 

Sorry. I just assumed it was, as I thought I was the only person who mentioned "prosperity". Could be wrong though?

Not sure anybody else mentioned ordinary people either, though?

 

Edited October 24, 2019 by Orraloon

[ParisInAKilt]

17 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Sorry. I just assumed it was, as I thought I was the only person who mentioned "prosperity". Could be wrong though?

Not sure anybody else mentioned ordinary people either, though?

 

I must have subconsciously used it after reading your post but came up with ordinary people myself

[Eisegerwind]

1 hour ago, ParisInAKilt said:

In terms of ordinary people’s lives, in what way is Ireland more prosperous than Scotland? 

State pension.

[ParisInAKilt]

47 minutes ago, Eisegerwind said:

State pension.

Almost double from what I could see 

[aaid]

3 hours ago, Orraloon said:

I would say that Ireland's relative prosperity has more to do with the fact that they are independent from England. Beng in the EU has helped as well. They are Independent in Europe. Now, where have I heard that before?

That's only partially true.  Despite being independent for over fifty years, Ireland's economy was still very much tied and dependent upon the economy of the UK.

In 1973, 55% of Irish exports were to the UK, in 2003, that was down to 80%.   

In same period the value of Ireland's exports grew by almost 80 times.  Even accounting for inflation, that is stellar.   As a comparison, UK exports - albeit much larger in total - grew by less than 20 times in the same period.





 

 

[Dave78]

13 hours ago, phart said:

But Scotland has been a part of the same EU for the same length of time. So why would being in the EU be a variable when it's a constant?

Yes, Scotland has been in the EU for the same length of time as part of the UK.

The context of my post to PIAK was in relation to Scottish independence, and an indy Scotland in the EU.

 

The EU has allowed Ireland to prosper, which is why the EU is seen so favourably by the people here. It's done this by undercutting other EU states on corporation tax, allowing trillions in foreign direct investment to flow in over the years. This was only made possible by being a eurozone EU member.

318k people were directly employed by foreign multinationals in 2017, earning on average 50k euros per year. Not numbers to be sniffed at for a small country.

 

3 hours ago, ParisInAKilt said:

In terms of ordinary people’s lives, in what way is Ireland more prosperous than Scotland? 

Choose any metric, i'd be willing to bet Ireland comes out on top.

The only area i feel Scotland does better in is healthcare.

[TDYER63]

12 minutes ago, aaid said:

That's only partially true.  Despite being independent for over fifty years, Ireland's economy was still very much tied and dependent upon the economy of the UK.

In 1973, 55% of Irish exports were to the UK, in 2003, that was down to 80%.   

In same period the value of Ireland's exports grew by almost 80 times.  Even accounting for inflation, that is stellar.   As a comparison, UK exports - albeit much larger in total - grew by less than 20 times in the same period.





 

 

Is this bit correct Aaid ? 

[aaid]

1 minute ago, TDYER63 said:

Is this bit correct Aaid ? 

Good spot, getting 18 and 80 mixed up.

Source is here (table 8).  https://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/statisticalyearbook/2004/ireland&theeu.pdf

In 1973 - Ireland's total exports were worth €1,104 million.  In 2003, that had grown to €82,176.
GB&NI share of that was €603 million in 1973, representing 55%, in 2003, GB&NI share was €15072 so 18%.

 

[TDYER63]

13 minutes ago, aaid said:

Good spot, getting 18 and 80 mixed up.

Source is here (table 8).  https://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/statisticalyearbook/2004/ireland&theeu.pdf

In 1973 - Ireland's total exports were worth €1,104 million.  In 2003, that had grown to €82,176.
GB&NI share of that was €603 million in 1973, representing 55%, in 2003, GB&NI share was €15072 so 18%.

 

👍 thanks, that is interesting. 

[Orraloon]

46 minutes ago, aaid said:

That's only partially true.  Despite being independent for over fifty years, Ireland's economy was still very much tied and dependent upon the economy of the UK.

In 1973, 55% of Irish exports were to the UK, in 2003, that was down to 80%.   

In same period the value of Ireland's exports grew by almost 80 times.  Even accounting for inflation, that is stellar.   As a comparison, UK exports - albeit much larger in total - grew by less than 20 times in the same period.





 

 

I'm not going to argue about the numbers, especially if you think 80% is less than 55%. 

But my point was that being independent allowed Ireland to take full advantage of being in the Common Market. Whereas Scotland didn't have that option. As you say, although Ireland was politically independent from England for decades their economy was very closely tied to that of England (As was their currency). Their economy didn't start to take off until they took full advantage of having access to a much bigger market. But they could only make the most of that because they were independent. 

 

[aaid]

2 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I'm not going to argue about the numbers, especially if you think 80% is less than 55%. 

But my point was that being independent allowed Ireland to take full advantage of being in the Common Market. Whereas Scotland didn't have that option. As you say, although Ireland was politically independent from England for decades their economy was very closely tied to that of England (As was their currency). Their economy didn't start to take off until they took full advantage of having access to a much bigger market. But they could only make the most of that because they were independent. 

 

See my later post on the numbers after being picked up by @TDYER63

Essentially I agree with you, to go back to phart's point about the EU being a constant wrt to Ireland and the UK.   Relatively speaking, Ireland has taken advantage of the EU - in its various forms - a lot more than the UK has, that's my point.

[thplinth]

Be interesting to know the respective GDP's of Ireland and Scotland at the time they joined the COMMON MARKET and see what the growth has been. Ireland now nearly twice (or is it more) Scotland...FFS and with a smaller population as well. And I see their population growth is also good. Whereas we are flat lining. Yeah so glad we were in the UK and not independent country like Ireland were. Another ace move from Team Scotland.

[Dave78]

1 hour ago, thplinth said:

Be interesting to know the respective GDP's of Ireland and Scotland at the time they joined the COMMON MARKET and see what the growth has been. Ireland now nearly twice (or is it more) Scotland...FFS and with a smaller population as well. And I see their population growth is also good. Whereas we are flat lining. Yeah so glad we were in the UK and not independent country like Ireland were. Another ace move from Team Scotland.

Chalk it up as yet another national missed opportunity.

Have a look at this interview with Ireland's most celebrated economist, David McWilliams... Specifically the economic strategy stuff vis a vis Ireland:

 

 

 

[weekevie04]

Ireland on the whole is basically Scotland, look what you could have won.

 

[Ally Bongo]

Queens Speech vote coming up shortly

I doubt the No's will have it but if it does .....................

[wee-toon-red]

Boris to table a motion on Monday calling for a General Election on December 21st. Must be expecting the EU to grant a Brexit delay until Jan 31st. You'd imagine the SNP will back an election but will Labour? Because it's a change to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act it needs a two-thirds majority to happen.

[Caledonian Craig]

1 minute ago, wee-toon-red said:

Boris to table a motion on Monday calling for a General Election on December 21st. Must be expecting the EU to grant a Brexit delay until Jan 31st. You'd imagine the SNP will back an election but will Labour? Because it's a change to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act it needs a two-thirds majority to happen.

I don't see Labour backing it myself.

It seems the logical way forward and in itself it will be a referendum on the Brexit deal. If the Tories end up increasing their vote share then I'd say it is proof people back Brexit and his deal. A Labour increase in seats will see them gain power and allows them to do Brexit their way. Seems a possible solution to this almighty mess.

[ParisInAKilt]

Another election? 😂😂😂 farcical 

Maybe they’ll lose the next one and can scrap leaving the EU.

[Orraloon]

1 minute ago, ParisInAKilt said:

 

Maybe they’ll lose the next one and can scrap leaving the EU.

I think that is starting to look much more likely.