aaid Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 This pretty much sums the current position up. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/newspapers-talking-tory-surge-scotland-are-missing-point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, aaid said: This pretty much sums the current position up. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/newspapers-talking-tory-surge-scotland-are-missing-point Pretty close to the mark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave78 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 29 minutes ago, aaid said: This pretty much sums the current position up. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/newspapers-talking-tory-surge-scotland-are-missing-point Great article. His Daily Record comments are interesting. He sounds like a journo in the know. What does he mean by a "concerted effort" though? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Dave78 said: What does he mean by a "concerted effort" though? "Planned" probably I think today, and most definitely after the GE, everybody is going to be acutely aware of the choices - well maybe not Kezia and Scottish Labour and Willie Rennie etc And if they are not aware Nicola has to have clandestine off the record meetings with certain editors and spell her plans out to them and ask if they are willing to help. (The likes of Mike Dailly could be a real asset - ex hard line Labour) Hard right Tory brexit and the consequences that will have or a parachute If not then she has tried Edited May 5, 2017 by Ally Bongo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 46 minutes ago, aaid said: This pretty much sums the current position up. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/newspapers-talking-tory-surge-scotland-are-missing-point ...except it still doesn't satisfactorily explain why the media is so anti-indy is he really saying that the newspapers were balanced and everything rosy until 2014 poisoned the well? surely in 2014 the Yes campaign deliberately (and to some eyes regrettably) didn't attack the media for its bias? what about is it to do with ownership, most of which is outside scotland? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 Tories win banff and buchan first vote preference by 4000 votes,, if tepeated at the GE it will be a monumental swing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 18 hours ago, aaid said: In reality, I think what's happening is right wing Brexit Kippers going to the Tories and "wet" Remain Tories going to the Lib Dems. 18 hours ago, Toepoke said: I think so too. Labour analysts made a similar mistake after the 2011 Holyrood election. Because the Lib Dem vote dropped by the same % as the SNP's rose they assumed those voters had moved straight over, when in fact Labour were haemorrhaging votes to the SNP and it was dissatisfied Libs who were propping up Labour. You guys do know I was only joking, aye? I might need to be less subtle in future? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said: Tories win banff and buchan first vote preference by 4000 votes,, if tepeated at the GE it will be a monumental swing If this is to do with Brexit, then there could be parallels with the post indy swing from Labour to SNP...? Although Brexit hasn't happened yet, there's a 2 year fight ahead that Brexiteers may still think worth voting Tory for. So far May seems untouchable, however unpopular her policies, no matter how weak and incompetent she is in the face of the EU, the British media will ensure she is seen as battling for britain, and confuse victory and defeat. it's gonna be a long 2 years... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irnbruman Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 Just now, hampden_loon2878 said: Tories win banff and buchan first vote preference by 4000 votes,, if tepeated at the GE it will be a monumental swing Ffs ..you are like the bloke in dads army "we're doomed " except private laurie didnae bang on about fishing all the time. Away and gie's peace man wi yer shyte. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 I feel the SNP need to change tack a little and hammer home the likely implications of brexit in the run up to the GE. At the moment it's "having a strong voice and being an opposition to the Tories" That is not going to wash with a lot of people. Less money in their pocket, more austerity, more public sell offs and cuts, businesses closing et al All it needs is continual simple short sentences that lay the seeds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
euan2020 Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 45 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said: Tories win banff and buchan first vote preference by 4000 votes,, if tepeated at the GE it will be a monumental swing for council elections lot of people vote for individual my mother is always complaining on SNP to me, but voted SNP in Council election, cos of the individual performance of the Coincillor who has been insitu around 20-25 years (although he used to be an independent) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 1 hour ago, exile said: If this is to do with Brexit, then there could be parallels with the post indy swing from Labour to SNP...? Although Brexit hasn't happened yet, there's a 2 year fight ahead that Brexiteers may still think worth voting Tory for. So far May seems untouchable, however unpopular her policies, no matter how weak and incompetent she is in the face of the EU, the British media will ensure she is seen as battling for britain, and confuse victory and defeat. it's gonna be a long 2 years... Everyone is down playing the brexit vote and saying its running down the constitutional issue,, to an extent i disagree,, in the north east it is all about the brexit vote and the way they have been isolated from the SG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, irnbruman said: Ffs ..you are like the bloke in dads army "we're doomed " except private laurie didnae bang on about fishing all the time. Away and gie's peace man wi yer shyte. No i am just gutted that alec salmonds back yard will turn blue due to the total disregard shown by sturgeon,someone accused me of having the blinkers on earlier,, i had to laugh at that as some on here actually think that was a positive result for the snp/independence. Some of the most patriotic hardened SNP supporters i know either abstained or voted for other parties,, that takes some doing Edited May 6, 2017 by hampden_loon2878 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said: Some of the most patriotic hardened SNP supporters i know either abstained or voted for other parties,, that takes some doing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 hampden_loon you should apply for a job with The Herald newspaper - they'd recognize your creative thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_fadiator Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 The local elections might be 'peak Tory' as the turnout's going to be 10%-20% down on a General Election. The SNP will be working hard to get their voters to turn up in June. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said: hampden_loon you should apply for a job with The Herald newspaper - they'd recognize your creative thinking. This board needs balance to it,, hopefully i add a bit to it...TM will be probably now grant scotland a referendum at the next possible stage as its now apparent that she likes to strike while the iron is hot....when the next referendum is signed it will have a clause of some type in it like no referendum within 15 years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, the_fadiator said: The local elections might be 'peak Tory' as the turnout's going to be 10%-20% down on a General Election. The SNP will be working hard to get their voters to turn up in June. Thats what i am hoping for,, all those angry/brexit/old/unionist voters will have no doubt made an effort to get to the ballot box,, maybe give the casual snp voters that extra push to make an effort Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said: This board needs balance to it,, hopefully i add a bit to it...TM will be probably now grant scotland a referendum at the next possible stage as its now apparent that she likes to strike while the iron is hot....when the next referendum is signed it will have a clause of some type in it like no referendum within 15 years Fine. As for clauses if such a clause was added in it would be out of order. Well perhaps a bit strong but I'd accept a clause in there if it were something like 'if polls show a discernible fall in support for independence' then I'd say by all means add it. As long as we have upwards of a million people (in the meantime) backing a cause it should always be an issue on the table. Even I'd accept no referendum if the support for it was shown to have falled markedly but that is not going to happen in my honest opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said: Fine. As for clauses if such a clause was added in it would be out of order. Well perhaps a bit strong but I'd accept a clause in there if it were something like 'if polls show a discernible fall in support for independence' then I'd say by all means add it. As long as we have upwards of a million people (in the meantime) backing a cause it should always be an issue on the table. Even I'd accept no referendum if the support for it was shown to have falled markedly but that is not going to happen in my honest opinion. Sorry was maybe a bit unclear with my post above,, i think TM will allow a indy ref as she will be confident in winning but before its agreed there will be a clause in The Edinburgh Agreement which holds off any future referendums if yes loses again ,, maybe im wrong but that would not surprise me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alibi Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said: Sorry was maybe a bit unclear with my post above,, i think TM will allow a indy ref as she will be confident in winning but before its agreed there will be a clause in The Edinburgh Agreement which holds off any future referendums if yes loses again ,, maybe im wrong but that would not surprise me You cannot bind future governments in that way. It would be deeply undemocratic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said: Sorry was maybe a bit unclear with my post above,, i think TM will allow a indy ref as she will be confident in winning but before its agreed there will be a clause in The Edinburgh Agreement which holds off any future referendums if yes loses again ,, maybe im wrong but that would not surprise me And I'd hope then that such a clause (I take it you mean one regardless of what a set amount of time would bring for Scotland) is not agreed to then. It would be a blatant gagging of the public and not just a small pocket of people either but well over a million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Alibi said: You cannot bind future governments in that way. It would be deeply undemocratic. Totally agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said: And I'd hope then that such a clause (I take it you mean one regardless of what a set amount of time would bring for Scotland) is not agreed to then. It would be a blatant gagging of the public and not just a small pocket of people either but well over a million. I'm not saying it will happen but i could see the uk government trying such a move,, i totally agree it would be gagging of the public but do you think they would really care? Would also be very dangerous for Scotland as that threat of independence would then be gone for WM to do as they please.Hopefully im wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 51 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said: .when the next referendum is signed it will have a clause of some type in it like no referendum within 15 years That's impossible and even if it were inserted it would be easily overturned in the courts if required. It's a well-established principle in the UK constitution that no government can tie the hands of a future government. Such a clause would be unconstitutional. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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