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It'll pass

Is there any part of you wondering how we got to 192k votes from victory ? Wondering how with the might of the press , the state , the establishment you almost failed ?

Surely you must realise this is a shallow and temporary victory ?

Edited by UPROAR
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Is there any part of you wondering how we got to 192k votes from victory ? Wondering how with the might of the press , the state , the establishment you almost failed ?

Surely you must realise this is a shallow and temporary victory ?

In hindsight it was mighty close.. Its up to the SNP to assess the key areas where the failed to convince to electorate and build on this. The first priority for Sturgeon is to secure another majority in the 2016 elections. It would be a mistake to have this classed as a vote for independence. It would result in them losing votes in my opinion

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The SNP have some big decisions to make. They are being discussed right now. We will have a better idea of what the plan is after the party conference.

One idea would be to stand at the general election saying that a good performance means that they will put another referendum into the manifesto for 2016. They will stick to the "decision on whether we have another referendum will be made by the people of Scotland". They wont announce this bit until the 2015 manifesto is published. That will give the Tories plenty time to show us all that they have no intention of giving us DevoMax as promised.

We also have local elections again in 2017 so 2018 could be another referendum year. Of course if they di give us DevoMax then independence could well be off the table for a generation.

Interesting times politically no matter which way it goes.

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If anyone is still feeling crap about the result just step back and think for a moment.The yes vote was 45% that has doubled in about 10 years.Back when the SNP first won power in Holyrood independence was only supported by around 22% of the population.Onward and upward went the 45.

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If anyone is still feeling crap about the result just step back and think for a moment.The yes vote was 45% that has doubled in about 10 years.Back when the SNP first won power in Holyrood independence was only supported by around 22% of the population.Onward and upward went the 45.

Ipsos MORI (formerly MORI) poll data between 1978 and 2012.

scotland_independence_35_year_trend-lrg.

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Interesting. Never realised support for independence was so high circa 1998 (World Cup fever? There seems to be a peak every time we qualified).

Curious to note also that it was falling to a 30 year low for the first few years of SNP government...

Edited by Toepoke
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Alan Rodent has been tweeting some graphs about IndyRef. No idea how right they are or where they are from although Edinburgh Uni is mentioned, but fairly interesting.

I can't seem to post the images, but

https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/519182216409399298/photo/1

And few others on his page

Nae idea why the last one is so small, but from what I can make out

16-29 = 47 no 53 yes
30-39 = 47 no 53 yes
40-49 = 48 no 52 yes
50-59 = 52 no 48 yes
60-69 = 56 no 44 yes
70+ = 69 no 31 yes

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Ipsos MORI (formerly MORI) poll data between 1978 and 2012.

scotland_independence_35_year_trend-lrg.

That big spike in the middle. Purely down to Braveheart of course...

I recall there was a poll in 1992 that had support over 50% - maybe not a Mori poll?

Going to be interesting seeing the next few polls on the subject, if they bother still polling on it.

Edited by Armchair Bob
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Alan Rodent has been tweeting some graphs about IndyRef. No idea how right they are or where they are from although Edinburgh Uni is mentioned, but fairly interesting.

I can't seem to post the images, but

https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/519182216409399298/photo/1

And few others on his page

Nae idea why the last one is so small, but from what I can make out

16-29 = 47 no 53 yes

30-39 = 47 no 53 yes

40-49 = 48 no 52 yes

50-59 = 52 no 48 yes

60-69 = 56 no 44 yes

70+ = 69 no 31 yes

BzSBeUkIEAAbeAj.jpg

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BzSBeUkIEAAbeAj.jpg

So the people who went to those evil Catholic schools were one of the strongest Yes demographics?

Whereas the CoS types at their doctrine free comprehensives voted overwhelmingly No?

What an ar$ehole.

edit: not you Tom, just thinking out loud.

Edited by thplinth
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:)

I freely admit I can be an ar$ehole at times ....but I bend to no-one.

Are these stats solid?

Because if they are it puts to bed the whole plastic paddy shit once and for all.

The reality is the folk (generally) calling the catholics plastic paddies (generally) voted No making them the true plastic jocks and the plastic paddies voted (generally) Yes making them fully authentic jocks. It is funny as fukk.

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is rUk folk from rUk eligible to voye in the referendum? What is oUk?

Outside uk, surely? It's where folk were born. Folk born in England,Wales or NI voted 72% No.
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Alan Rodent has been tweeting some graphs about IndyRef. No idea how right they are or where they are from although Edinburgh Uni is mentioned, but fairly interesting.

I can't seem to post the images, but

https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/519182216409399298/photo/1

And few others on his page

Nae idea why the last one is so small, but from what I can make out

16-29 = 47 no 53 yes

30-39 = 47 no 53 yes

40-49 = 48 no 52 yes

50-59 = 52 no 48 yes

60-69 = 56 no 44 yes

70+ = 69 no 31 yes

BzSBeUkIEAAbeAj.jpg

I blame the Protestants... :-))

Seriously though, that's very interesting - I didn't realise that the religion gap would be so large...

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400k english voted while 800,000+ scottish expats were not allowed a vote.

If voting rights had been based on your birthplace and not current residency that would eliminate a big No chunk and introduce a large Yes chunk (IMHO). Crazy that Czechs etc and English got a vote while born and bred Scots were denied. Most forced abroad by the very issue independence would have addressed.

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Even said in jest it seems a bit divisive to be pointing the finger at various religions and nationalities, no?

There is simply not enough info on the background to the charts to work out what they mean?

For all we know any one of those minority religions could be staunch yes or no, but the figures masked by other others. Maybe 'other religion' includes non CoS 'prods' which could include Anglican and others from rUK?

Even the lowest yes group - the good old rUK - is quite healthy if you think about it - a 29% vote for independence is not a bad shout from people prepared to cut themselves off from their homeland, and side with saltire waving rallies singing about sending Edward home; and not bad given historic general apathy for independence, where 29% would be not untypical (across all voters in Scotland).

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Criticisms and qualifications of demographic profiling[edit]


Demographic profiling is essentially an exercise in making generalizations about groups of people. As with all such generalizations many individuals within these groups will not conform to the profile - demographic information is aggregate and probabilistic information about groups, not about specific individuals. Critics of demographic profiling argue that such broad-brush generalizations can only offer such limited insight and that their practical usefulness is debatable.


Most demographic information is also culturally based. The generational cohort information above, for example, applies primarily to North America (and to a lesser extent to Western Europe) and it may be unfruitful to generalize conclusions more widely as different nations face different situations and potential challenges.[5]



Edited by thplinth
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