Postal Ballots At The Referendum

[littleboyblue]

I guess postal vote 'turnout' is already higher than polling station turnout for other elections and whilst the referendum was not 'any other election' on the basis turnout overall was significantly up, you would expect postal votes to be up too. I guess if you go to the bother of registering for a postal vote you are highly likely to use it, especially this time round.

Did the increase in postal votes significantly exceed the increase in polling station votes from their respective base levels though? That would be interesting to know.

Certainly 96.4% is very high, but I found some of the rationale in 'proving' that more than 3.6% absolutely did not vote a bit desperate.

Saying all that, I would not be a bit surprised if there was foul play due to what was at stake.

[aaid]

Surely if MI5 were nobbling the postal vote the they would also have nobbled the exit poll as well.

All sounds like bollocks to me.

[Bzzzz]

This report basically backs up my feelings particularly on the postal votes. There was a TON of canvassing carried out and not one return even hinted this level of figures yet our other canvas reports were broadly right.

I'm absolutely convinced as I was when I stood watching the pb's being counted that there was foul play afoot.

100% convinced.

[Flure]

This report basically backs up my feelings particularly on the postal votes. There was a TON of canvassing carried out and not one return even hinted this level of figures yet our other canvas reports were broadly right.

I'm absolutely convinced as I was when I stood watching the pb's being counted that there was foul play afoot.

100% convinced.

Not much one for conspiracy theories, but it would certainly explain why our canvass returns were so far out.

[Clyde1998]

Council Area - Yes% - Postal%

Argyll & Bute - 41.5% - 96.4%

East Renfrewshire - 36.8% - 96.2%

Stirling - 40.2% - 96.2%

East Lothian - 38.3% - 96.1%

Clackmannanshire - 46.2% - 96.0%

Dumfries & Galloway - 34.3% - 95.9%

Falkirk - 46.5% - 95.8%

Highland - 47.1% - 95.7%

Aberdeenshire - 39.6% - 95.6%

East Dunbartonshire - 38.8% - 95.6%

West Dunbartonshire - 54.0% - 95.6%

Scottish Borders - 33.4% - 95.3%

South Ayrshire - 42.1% - 95.3%

East Ayrshire - 47.2% - 95.2%

Orkney - 32.8% - 95.2%

Perth & Kinross - 39.8% - 95.1%

Eilean Siar - 46.6% - 94.9%

Renfrewshire - 47.2% - 94.6%

Inverclyde - 49.9% - 94.5%

Moray - 42.4% - 94.4%

Angus - 43.7% - 94.2%

Midlothian - 43.7% - 94.1%

West Lothian - 44.8% - 94.1%

South Lanarkshire - 45.3% - 94.0%

Shetland - 36.3% - 93.9%

North Ayrshire - 48.9% - 93.5%

Edinburgh - 38.9% - 93.2%

Aberdeen - 41.4% - 93.1%

Fife - 45.0% - 93.0%

Dundee - 57.3% - 92.1%

Glasgow - 53.5% - 88.7%

North Lanarkshire - 51.1% - 88.3%

Yes >50% - Green

Yes <45% - Orange

Yes <40% - Red

Draw what you want from this...

[Orraloon]

96% return for postal votes doesn't surprise me. If the postals were really 70% NO then that does sound a wee bit strange.

Does anybody know off the top of their head what proportion of the total vote the postal votes were?

I mean, if they managed to change the postal votes from say 55:45 to 70:30 would it have been enough to swing the overall vote?

[Clyde1998]

96% return for postal votes doesn't surprise me. If the postals were really 70% NO then that does sound a wee bit strange.

Does anybody know off the top of their head what proportion of the total vote the postal votes were?

I mean, if they managed to change the postal votes from say 55:45 to 70:30 would it have been enough to swing the overall vote?

789,024 postal ballots

738,526 returned

Using 70% No - 221,558 Yes; 516,969 No - which would be the modified number

Taking away the postal votes - 1,396,431 Yes; 1,484,957 No - on the day.

Using 55% No - 332,337 Yes; 406,190 No - which would be the accurate number.

On the day + accurate - 1,728,768 Yes; 1,891,147 No (47.8% Yes; 52.2% No)

Wouldn't have changed the outcome, but the vote would've been much closer.

Edited March 26, 2015 by Clyde1998

[aaid]

Not much one for conspiracy theories, but it would certainly explain why our canvass returns were so far out.

People telling lies on the doorstep is a much likelier explanation.

Edited March 26, 2015 by aaid

[Flure]

People telling lies on the doorstep is a much likelier explanation.

That's a possibility that cannot be entirely ruled out.

[Scunnered]

People telling lies on the doorstep is a much likelier explanation.

And that's just the canvassers! *badum tish*

[Orraloon]

And that's just the canvassers! *badum tish*

You speak for yerself sunshine. .

[ParisInAKilt]

And that's just the canvassers! *badum tish*

[hunchy]

It would not surprise me in the slightest if there was foul play with the postal votes.

[littleboyblue]

I didn't know the eventual result for Argyll and Bute until reading this thread and it does seem a bit odd that polling station ballot sampling from the biggest population centres such as Dunoon, Oban and Campbeltown indicated a Yes majority but it was ultimately 41%.

Ok so rural areas may have tended more to No but at 1 in 5 of all votes cast, the PB must have been very heavily No.

If the result was never in doubt though, why did we get the widespread panic in the last week or so. Would it have been possible for foul play to be active so late on as it seemed we were heading for a Yes?

[Deeklipse]

789,024 postal ballots

738,526 returned

Using 70% No - 221,558 Yes; 516,969 No - which would be the modified number

Taking away the postal votes - 1,396,431 Yes; 1,484,957 No - on the day.

Using 55% No - 332,337 Yes; 406,190 No - which would be the accurate number.

On the day + accurate - 1,728,768 Yes; 1,891,147 No (47.8% Yes; 52.2% No)

Wouldn't have changed the outcome, but the vote would've been much closer.

We are the 48

[DaveyDenoon]

It would not surprise me in the slightest if there was foul play with the postal votes.

I'd be staggered if there wasn't.

[iainmac1]

And that's just the canvassers! *badum tish*

My gran who is over 80 was.called and told she would lose her pension. Luckily she had a good gran child. When better together came to her door she told them to do one.

Not all pensioners were lucky enough to have smart grand children.

[thewelk]

My gran who is over 80 was.called and told she would lose her pension. Luckily she had a good gran child. When better together came to her door she told them to do one.

Not all pensioners were lucky enough to have smart grand children.

Yeah, this really saddened me. Not only is their pension one of the worst in Europe, they're made to feel so lucky to have it. Those are the last generation of the easily manipulated.

[Scunnered]

My gran who is over 80 was.called and told she would lose her pension. Luckily she had a good gran child. When better together came to her door she told them to do one.

Not all pensioners were lucky enough to have smart grand children.

Yep, I had my elderly neighbour converted to Yes. Then one of his pals came to visit, a Labour man and told him much the same. He's since admitted he got it wrong.

Edited March 28, 2015 by Scunnered

[Flora MaDonald]

My auld dear's secretary of her former work's pensioner association. Up to the referendum it was like working in a call centre - the phone went constantly with pensioners telling her that they'd been told they'd lose it all. Thankfully, the auld dear's a mental 'Yesser', and put them right, but I have no doubt at the end of the day, they all voted No.

[DaveyDenoon]

My gran who is over 80 was.called and told she would lose her pension. Luckily she had a good gran child. When better together came to her door she told them to do one.

Not all pensioners were lucky enough to have smart grand children.

This was widespread. I know of quite a few pensioners who, on the Friday after the vote, were sitting with friends talking about how relieved they were that they'd not be losing their pensions. They were genuinely shitting themselves about how they'd survive if the vote went Yes.

Also thousands of Poles in Inverness were called up and told they'd be kicked out if we voted Yes.

I always say if you have to resort to lies and scaremongering to win the day then you've lost the argument. For this reason it will soon become clear to everyone that there is no substance whatsoever to the No argument and this will lead to the inevitable.

It's just a matter of time before the best efforts of all in the "Establishment" will no longer be enough to stop independence becoming a reality.

Edited March 28, 2015 by DaveyDenoon

[Stapes]

My gran who is over 80 was.called and told she would lose her pension. Luckily she had a good gran child. When better together came to her door she told them to do one.

Not all pensioners were lucky enough to have smart grand children.

The Labour guys were even trying to convince me they were worried about their pensions. The lie was so deeply embedded in the campaign that in many cases they came to believe it themselves.