The World Cup Qualifying 2026

[Caledonian Craig]

I see that the World Cup Qualifiers have been revamped somewhat. The European section will see mainly groups of five teams with the winners qualifying and runners-up going into play-offs so it is like taking us back to the 1980s in a way with smaller groups.

It is not documented anywhere how the seedings will be worked out and it could be very important to Scotland. If (as is usually the case) it goes by FIFA rankings then Scotland will be in Pot 2 as things stand but with a very good Euro 24 we could force our way into Pot 1 and really enhance our chances of direct qualification. Of course there is the chance that the Nations League (2025-25) will decide seedings in which case us avoiding relegation could see us in Pot 1. Either way the new format does seem to enhance our chances as even in Pot 2 we'll only face one really top team and could avoid them too.

As far as I can make out the draw for the qualifiers will take place next December.

[N4Footsoldier]

The smaller group format really does make it more of a luck of the draw type scenario. Despite the WC being expanded to 48 teams this time, it doesn't materially increase the ease of qualification imo. Looks like 20 UEFA teams qualify from 12 group winners and 8 play off winners.

12 group of 4 or 5 teams, meaning pots will be bigger, so there should in theory be a bigger gap between the quality of the teams within the groups. But also leaves the door open for a group of death scenario if we are near the bottom of pot 1 and get a top Pot 2, pot 3 and underrated pot 4 team for example.

Also worth noting as with the last world cup, we can only get a play off via Nations League by winning our group, regardless of our higher "seeding" than other group winners from league B for example. So we can possibly more or less rule that qualification path out unless we really exceed ourselves or land our feet with a relatively easy draw.

[Orraloon]

13 minutes ago, N4Footsoldier said:

The smaller group format really does make it more of a luck of the draw type scenario. Despite the WC being expanded to 48 teams this time, it doesn't materially increase the ease of qualification imo. Looks like 20 UEFA teams qualify from 12 group winners and 8 play off winners.

12 group of 4 or 5 teams, meaning pots will be bigger, so there should in theory be a bigger gap between the quality of the teams within the groups. But also leaves the door open for a group of death scenario if we are near the bottom of pot 1 and get a top Pot 2, pot 3 and underrated pot 4 team for example.

Also worth noting as with the last world cup, we can only get a play off via Nations League by winning our group, regardless of our higher "seeding" than other group winners from league B for example. So we can possibly more or less rule that qualification path out unless we really exceed ourselves or land our feet with a relatively easy draw.

I'm pretty sure the UEFA allocation goes up from 13 to 16 teams.

[N4Footsoldier]

2 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I'm pretty sure the UEFA allocation goes up from 13 to 16 teams.

Actually that's right, the playoffs continue with this nonsense 1 legged semi final and final format. So only 4 playoff spaces

[Caledonian Craig]

16 minutes ago, N4Footsoldier said:

The smaller group format really does make it more of a luck of the draw type scenario. Despite the WC being expanded to 48 teams this time, it doesn't materially increase the ease of qualification imo. Looks like 20 UEFA teams qualify from 12 group winners and 8 play off winners.

12 group of 4 or 5 teams, meaning pots will be bigger, so there should in theory be a bigger gap between the quality of the teams within the groups. But also leaves the door open for a group of death scenario if we are near the bottom of pot 1 and get a top Pot 2, pot 3 and underrated pot 4 team for example.

Also worth noting as with the last world cup, we can only get a play off via Nations League by winning our group, regardless of our higher "seeding" than other group winners from league B for example. So we can possibly more or less rule that qualification path out unless we really exceed ourselves or land our feet with a relatively easy draw.

Yes but with 12 groups it means 12 top seeds and that means a 16% chance of drawing a team that may have (in the old format) only have been a Pot 2 team so that has to improve our chances. On top of that say we draw Croatia out of top seeds then it is us then the next team thereafter will be a team ranked 36th upwards in Europe so at present that would be Israel and then it would be a team ranked 48th or upwards....at present that would be Latvia. So potentially could be a group of Croatia, Scotland, Israel and Latvia. Sure as hell take that over groups of the past. 

The runners-up from each group goes into play-offs along with teams from the Nations League as I understand it and there will be four paths each path having a semi and final.

 

[Orraloon]

3 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

 

The runners-up from each group goes into play-offs along with teams from the Nations League as I understand it and there will be four paths each path having a semi and final.

 

That is correct. 

[Caledonian Craig]

16 minutes ago, N4Footsoldier said:

Actually that's right, the playoffs continue with this nonsense 1 legged semi final and final format. So only 4 playoff spaces

Yes the play-offs will consist of the twelve group runners-up in qualifying and four from the 2024-25 Nations League - four paths containing four teams playing a semi and a final.

[Big Ramy 1314]

On 12/31/2023 at 11:31 AM, N4Footsoldier said:

The smaller group format really does make it more of a luck of the draw type scenario. Despite the WC being expanded to 48 teams this time, it doesn't materially increase the ease of qualification imo. Looks like 20 UEFA teams qualify from 12 group winners and 8 play off winners.

12 group of 4 or 5 teams, meaning pots will be bigger, so there should in theory be a bigger gap between the quality of the teams within the groups. But also leaves the door open for a group of death scenario if we are near the bottom of pot 1 and get a top Pot 2, pot 3 and underrated pot 4 team for example.

Also worth noting as with the last world cup, we can only get a play off via Nations League by winning our group, regardless of our higher "seeding" than other group winners from league B for example. So we can possibly more or less rule that qualification path out unless we really exceed ourselves or land our feet with a relatively easy draw.

48 teams? Does that mean there will 10 teams qualifying from that stupid ConcaCaf group so countries like Panama, Nicaragua, El Salvador will qualify while we have to beat the likes of France, Germany and Belgium to even get a playoff spot. I have never agreed with that stupid ConcaCaf qualifying format..... It's a joke....

[Grim Jim]

Might have a point if we could beat Costa Rica.

[todd]

3 hours ago, Big Ramy 1314 said:

48 teams? Does that mean there will 10 teams qualifying from that stupid ConcaCaf group so countries like Panama, Nicaragua, El Salvador will qualify while we have to beat the likes of France, Germany and Belgium to even get a playoff spot. I have never agreed with that stupid ConcaCaf qualifying format..... It's a joke....

Totally agree, the non 'elite' European teams definitely get the shitty end of the stick imo.  I think there is a case for global qualification groups

[ceudmilefailte]

25 minutes ago, todd said:

Totally agree, the non 'elite' European teams definitely get the shitty end of the stick imo.  I think there is a case for global qualification groups

Totally agree with the idea of global qualification.

Always fancied a world knock out cup too

Guess  clubs would never approve because of the travel involved 

[Caledonian Craig]

12 hours ago, ceudmilefailte said:

Totally agree with the idea of global qualification.

Always fancied a world knock out cup too

Guess  clubs would never approve because of the travel involved 

Yes global qualification would be great with a country from each region but knowing Scotland's luck we'd end up drawing Argentina, Cameroon, South Korea, Australia and Mexico.

I cannot see FIFA wanting such a format though as it runs the risk of becoming a European and South American club only. At least in the current format you get a wide mix of countries from all over the globe.

[Toepoke]

16 hours ago, Big Ramy 1314 said:

48 teams? Does that mean there will 10 teams qualifying from that stupid ConcaCaf group so countries like Panama, Nicaragua, El Salvador will qualify while we have to beat the likes of France, Germany and Belgium to even get a playoff spot. I have never agreed with that stupid ConcaCaf qualifying format..... It's a joke....

There are going to be six CONCACAF teams guaranteed at 2026.

Canada, Mexico & USA qualify automatically as hosts.

Three more teams make it through via the groups.

Two CONCACAF teams will also enter the inter confederation tournament for the final two spots (all continents outside of Europe participate).

 

[Miike]

17 hours ago, Big Ramy 1314 said:

48 teams? Does that mean there will 10 teams qualifying from that stupid ConcaCaf group so countries like Panama, Nicaragua, El Salvador will qualify while we have to beat the likes of France, Germany and Belgium to even get a playoff spot. I have never agreed with that stupid ConcaCaf qualifying format..... It's a joke....

Isn't it funny how it's just taken for granted that Belgium are one of the elite teams which it isn't fair we have to qualify against. Not so long ago they were just an average team, no better than Scotland. It's crazy how poor player development is in Scotland, considering the amount of engagement with football here and the numbers of youngsters that play the game. It can't be a numbers thing, because Belgium only have 11 million population or something (plus the obvious examples of Croatia, Uruguay etc), and it can't be cultural because England are producing fantastic players up and down the country, right up til the border.

[Diamond Scot]

As much as its frustrating that we have to qualify through the strongest section, I view it like I do the champions league. The competition shouldnt be about having the best X number of teams in Europe / the world.

Its meant to represent World football. Part of the reason why the Champions League has lost alot of appeal to me is that it now largely serves 4 leagues.

[Toepoke]

19 minutes ago, Diamond Scot said:

As much as its frustrating that we have to qualify through the strongest section, I view it like I do the champions league. The competition shouldnt be about having the best X number of teams in Europe / the world.

Its meant to represent World football. Part of the reason why the Champions League has lost alot of appeal to me is that it now largely serves 4 leagues.

I do agree with this, although IMO there should a couple of additional slots for European teams, even if it's into the inter confederation playoffs.

[Caledonian Craig]

According to an article in an unmentionable newspaper I read earlier today the seedings will go by UEFA Nations League standings which is good news for Scotland. If we can avoid relegation then we are virtually guaranteed to be among the top seeds. That will be a great fillup as it means we avoid the majority of the very best sides in the draw. This has to improve our chances of getting a favourable draw for the 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign.

[bdgsct]

1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

According to an article in an unmentionable newspaper I read earlier today the seedings will go by UEFA Nations League standings which is good news for Scotland. If we can avoid relegation then we are virtually guaranteed to be among the top seeds. That will be a great fillup as it means we avoid the majority of the very best sides in the draw. This has to improve our chances of getting a favourable draw for the 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign.

I was under the impression it was FIFA rankings. Agreed that would be a boost if true as we'd need to have an outstanding euros to get in the top 12. When is the draw? 

[bdgsct]

6 minutes ago, bdgsct said:

I was under the impression it was FIFA rankings. Agreed that would be a boost if true as we'd need to have an outstanding euros to get in the top 12. When is the draw? 

That article actually suggests current uefa nations league rankings would be used which as we are 16th would leave us in pot 2. I'd be surprised if the chose the basis for the seedings knowing which teams would benefit as it would be carnage. It sounds like there is at least one element of the article which is wide of the mark.

[Caledonian Craig]

This is the article I refer to:-

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/25486627/england-2026-world-cup-nightmare-nations-league/

[saintydave]

They could be getting their wires crossed as some of the WC qualifying playoff spots will go to teams based on nations league rankings. 

If they are to use the nations league rankings for all seedings, surely it would be the seedings after the nations league finishes in November? Which would mean 3rd place on pot A guarantees top seed.

[Caledonian Craig]

3 minutes ago, saintydave said:

They could be getting their wires crossed as some of the WC qualifying playoff spots will go to teams based on nations league rankings. 

If they are to use the nations league rankings for all seedings, surely it would be the seedings after the nations league finishes in November? Which would mean 3rd place on pot A guarantees top seed.

Yescit would be after this iteration of the Nations League is over.

[bdgsct]

I understand now. It does seem odd that you'd benefit twice from NL performance,ie seeded in the WC draw and virtually guaranteed a play-off if you finish 3rd in WC qualifying. Would make the NL very interesting.

[Orraloon]

7 minutes ago, bdgsct said:

I understand now. It does seem odd that you'd benefit twice from NL performance,ie seeded in the WC draw and virtually guaranteed a play-off if you finish 3rd in WC qualifying. Would make the NL very interesting.

I think that would be the point of going down this route. It would be to try to build up the importance of the Nations League. I'll wait until I see it on the UEFA or FIFA website before I believe it, though. It is the sun after all. 

[romanticscot]

I have chewing over the implications of the Nations League and might have the wrong understanding. If there are 10 UEFA qualification groups for the World Cup again, and the Nations League determines seeding for the draw, we are at worst guaranteed to be seeded 2nd (1-10 are seeded first, and then 11-20 are seeded 2nd).  This would mean all those who finish 1st and 2nd and the top 2 3rd places teams are seeded in pot 1.  

If World Cup qualification groups were to be drawn today, we would have one of the following in our group as the top seeds.  

Spain, Croatia, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, Portugal, Belgium, Hungary, Switzerland and Germany. 

We would avoid France, Poland, Israel, Bosnia & H, Austria, Serbia, England, Wales and Czech Republic as they would be in pot 2 with us.

So much to change, but the point is we must treat the Nations League seriously as finishing a strong 3rd could mean we are seeded in Pot 1, and 2nd guarantee's that we are.