Seedings for Euro Finals

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

I only just realised this. But, seedings for the Finals are based solely on the Teams Qualification record in the current Groips! Excluding results versus tge bottom team in 6 team groups.

So, that means 5x Pot 1 spots still up for Grabs (Germany is automatically a 1st Pot Team). And 6 Pot 2 Spots.

Currently, Scotland are a Pot 1 Team, absolutely amazing!

Personally I'm now hoping we qualify with a minimum Pot 2 Starting Spot! Amazing to be talking like this!

For all the current Pot Placings, go here:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024_qualifying#Overall_ranking

 

[Grim Jim]

Looks great, but ca' canny, as my mother and your granny might say.

Sorry, looks braw

[GLOSTA]

Lots like 20 teams have only played 3 games and the 4 nations league finalist ls just 2.

 

That said, we are in a strong position with 4 wins in the bag... but it is Scotland. No slip up in Cyprus please.

[Texas Pete]

4 hours ago, GLOSTA said:

Lots like 20 teams have only played 3 games and the 4 nations league finalist ls just 2.

 

That said, we are in a strong position with 4 wins in the bag... but it is Scotland. No slip up in Cyprus please.

True but only one team who has played 3 games has a 100% record (Portugal) and no teams who have played 2 games have won both. 

We should be aiming to get to the end of the campaign undefeated and that should really be enough for at least a pot 2 position. 

Spain away will be very tough obviously but our other 3 games are realistically winnable even when you consider our history with Georgia. 

Even if we lose in Spain we would still be in pot 1 if we win our other 3 games. 

[ceudmilefailte]

7 minutes ago, Texas Pete said:

True but only one team who has played 3 games has a 100% record (Portugal) and no teams who have played 2 games have won both. 

We should be aiming to get to the end of the campaign undefeated and that should really be enough for at least a pot 2 position. 

Spain away will be very tough obviously but our other 3 games are realistically winnable even when you consider our history with Georgia. 

Even if we lose in Spain we would still be in pot 1 if we win our other 3 games. 

Can you get into pot 1 if you only finish second in your group?

 

[GLOSTA]

21 minutes ago, Texas Pete said:

True but only one team who has played 3 games has a 100% record (Portugal) and no teams who have played 2 games have won both. 

We should be aiming to get to the end of the campaign undefeated and that should really be enough for at least a pot 2 position. 

Spain away will be very tough obviously but our other 3 games are realistically winnable even when you consider our history with Georgia. 

Even if we lose in Spain we would still be in pot 1 if we win our other 3 games. 

TBH I will be happy to qualify and if we do, deal with whatever comes our way

[Texas Pete]

40 minutes ago, GLOSTA said:

TBH I will be happy to qualify and if we do, deal with whatever comes our way

Absolutely but the team should be trying as hard as they can to get as many points as they can.

 

[Texas Pete]

54 minutes ago, ceudmilefailte said:

Can you get into pot 1 if you only finish second in your group?

 

No the best 5 group winners plus Germany would be in pot 1 but Spain would need to beat us by 3 clear goals and win the rest of their games to win the group if we win our other 3 games. Very possible but they will be under all sorts of pressure if we beat Cyprus. 

In all honesty pot 2 would do us nicely. Would give us a guaranteed glamour game and a great chance of getting out the group. Even pot 3 would be an improvement on Euro 2020. 

[DesiScotsman]

19 hours ago, Texas Pete said:

No the best 5 group winners plus Germany would be in pot 1 but Spain would need to beat us by 3 clear goals and win the rest of their games to win the group if we win our other 3 games. Very possible but they will be under all sorts of pressure if we beat Cyprus. 

In all honesty pot 2 would do us nicely. Would give us a guaranteed glamour game and a great chance of getting out the group. Even pot 3 would be an improvement on Euro 2020. 

From what I remember, we were only a pot 4 team for the Euro 2020 draw as the playoff teams were to be automatically placed in that pot.

Agree that even as a pot 2 team, it will be a great opportunity to at least get a glamour game in but also a great chance to qualify past the group stages for the very first time.

I’d imagine the process will be very similar to Euro 16 & Euro 20 in that the top 2 teams from each group qualify but also the 4 best 3rd placed teams too?

Edited July 28, 2023 by DesiScotsman

[Caledonian Craig]

On 7/27/2023 at 7:37 PM, Texas Pete said:

No the best 5 group winners plus Germany would be in pot 1 but Spain would need to beat us by 3 clear goals and win the rest of their games to win the group if we win our other 3 games. Very possible but they will be under all sorts of pressure if we beat Cyprus. 

In all honesty pot 2 would do us nicely. Would give us a guaranteed glamour game and a great chance of getting out the group. Even pot 3 would be an improvement on Euro 2020. 

Actually, the seedings will be worked out by the teams with the best qualifying record so if Scotland were to finish second on say 18 points and that was better than a group winner with 17 points then they would be seeded above them. That is as I understand it.

[todd]

4 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Actually, the seedings will be worked out by the teams with the best qualifying record so if Scotland were to finish second on say 18 points and that was better than a group winner with 17 points then they would be seeded above them. That is as I understand it.

That would be the logical way to do it I'd say but this is UEFA we're talking about.  Sure they'll decide nearer the time dependant on which of the 'big' teams need an extra helping hand 

[Caledonian Craig]

11 hours ago, todd said:

That would be the logical way to do it I'd say but this is UEFA we're talking about.  Sure they'll decide nearer the time dependant on which of the 'big' teams need an extra helping hand 

Looking at this section (Overall Ranking) does seem to, sadly, suggest that seedings will work on best qualifying record of group winners so I was wrong. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024_qualifying#Overall_ranking

[todd]

14 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Looking at this section (Overall Ranking) does seem to, sadly, suggest that seedings will work on best qualifying record of group winners so I was wrong. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024_qualifying#Overall_ranking

You were incorrect about how they'd go about it but you weren't wrong

[Texas Pete]

On 7/29/2023 at 6:21 PM, todd said:

That would be the logical way to do it I'd say but this is UEFA we're talking about.  Sure they'll decide nearer the time dependant on which of the 'big' teams need an extra helping hand 

I don’t agree that it would be the logical way to do it. Group winners should never finish behind second placed teams if overall ranking is used. 

[Texas Pete]

On 7/30/2023 at 6:21 AM, Caledonian Craig said:

Looking at this section (Overall Ranking) does seem to, sadly, suggest that seedings will work on best qualifying record of group winners so I was wrong. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024_qualifying#Overall_ranking

Yeah this is where I got my information from. I would have been very surprised if they had done it the way you had suggested given the way they work out the overall ranking of the Nations League. 

[Caledonian Craig]

One good thing about this new system for seedings is that teams already through playing their last games sill have their seedings to play for so less likely to 'wing it' or field a weakened side in it encouraging each team to earn their results.

[Ak91]

I think the top seeds are Germany + 5 best top spot qualifiers. 
 

2nd seeds are remaining 5 top spot qualifiers, + best 2nd placed qualifier. 
 

Therefore, if we don’t win the group we need to hope we are best 2nd place. At this point I think 18 points probably gets you close to that. 
 

We are hoping Holland, and Italy lose at least 1 game between now and the end as I think the rest (Austria/Belgium, Slovakia, Finland, and Croatia) will take care of itself as there will be points dropped throughout the course of qualification by these countries. 

[Texas Pete]

4 hours ago, Ak91 said:

I think the top seeds are Germany + 5 best top spot qualifiers. 
 

2nd seeds are remaining 5 top spot qualifiers, + best 2nd placed qualifier. 
 

Therefore, if we don’t win the group we need to hope we are best 2nd place. At this point I think 18 points probably gets you close to that. 
 

We are hoping Holland, and Italy lose at least 1 game between now and the end as I think the rest (Austria/Belgium, Slovakia, Finland, and Croatia) will take care of itself as there will be points dropped throughout the course of qualification by these countries. 

I’m not overly bothered about what happens in other groups. The main objective for us is to qualify and try to accumulate as many points as possible on the way. If that’s good enough for pot 1 or pot 2 then great. If we end up in pot 3 or 4 then so be it. 

If we keep going the way we are going we should really end up with around 18 or 19 points which should hopefully be enough for pot 1 or 2. 

If we start to falter a bit and fall over the line then we can have no complaints about being in pot 3 or 4. I’d rather be in pot 4 than sitting at home next June. 

[JandC]

If we do qualify then it would be fantastic to get at least 2nd pot seeding as so many good teams in there. 
 

Remember that the 3 play-off qualifiers go into Pot 4 and I'd fancy out chances against any of them.

I know qualifying is the main aim but it would be a nice bonus to know that we're not going to get a group of death as well!

[Toepoke]

3 hours ago, Texas Pete said:

I’m not overly bothered about what happens in other groups. The main objective for us is to qualify and try to accumulate as many points as possible on the way. If that’s good enough for pot 1 or pot 2 then great. If we end up in pot 3 or 4 then so be it. 

If we keep going the way we are going we should really end up with around 18 or 19 points which should hopefully be enough for pot 1 or 2. 

If we start to falter a bit and fall over the line then we can have no complaints about being in pot 3 or 4. I’d rather be in pot 4 than sitting at home next June. 

Agreed, it would be a fantastic achievement to be top seeds, but the caveat there is that teams like us being in Pot 1 would mean some very strong nations would be seeded lower down. Nice to go into the draw knowing it would be impossible to draw the likes of Germany, England, France etc. however.

But let's get there first 🤐

 

Edited September 8, 2023 by Toepoke

[Texas Pete]

After England’s draw last night we still have the best record in qualifying and are one of only three teams with a 100% record. 

I think the only way we can guarantee being a top seed is to take something in Spain and win our last 2 games. A tough ask. 

A defeat by one goal in Spain and winning out last 2 matches should really be enough as well but a good few teams have only dropped a couple of points and could very well win the rest of their games.

I suppose we can only do our best and see what happens when all games have been played but I just hope the players don’t take their foot off the gas in our remaining games should we qualify on Tuesday or at least with a game or 2 to spare. 

[Caledonian Craig]

Just looking at the other groups and the runners-up and if they look well-placed to surpass our record if we do not win the group.

Group B - Netherlands look a fair bet to finish second and they have already lost a match so may have to go on a winning streak to finish with a record similar to ours.

Group C - Probably between Ukraine and Italy for runner-up but both have already dropped a number of points so I don't see either in the running for best runners-up spot.

Group D - Although trailing in the group I am pretty sure Croatia will win it with Turkey runners-up and although they have won all of their matches and drawn one I'd be surprised if they do not drop more points.

Group E - Tight group with Czechs, Albania and Poland vying for qualification and all have taken points of each other so very unlikely they will finish with a stellar runners-up record.

Group F - Looks to be between Belgium and Austria to who wins the group. Both have drawn one of their games so may need to go on an unbeaten run to pip us.

Group G - Hungary look a good bet to win the group with Serbia favourites to be runners-up but they have already lost one and drawn another game.

Group H - Probably between Denmark, Slovenia and Finland for the qualifying spots but each have dropped points already.

Group I - Between Switzerland, Romania and Israel with all three already having dropped points and am sure they will all drop more.

Group J - Portugal are going to coast to the group win. Runners-up spot is between Slovakia and Luxembourg (yes thats right) and both have dropped points already.

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

A Great STATS Thread this! To clarify the Tie Breakers for the SEEDING POTS for the Finals:

1. Position in the group; (i.e A 2nd Placed Team will always be Ranked LOWER than a Group WINNER, Regardless of Points)
2. Higher number of points;
3. Superior goal difference;
4. Higher number of goals scored;
5. Higher number of goals scored away from home;
6. Higher number of wins;
7. Higher number of wins away from home;
8. Fair play conduct (1 point for a single yellow card, 3 points for a red card as a consequence of two yellow cards, 3 points for a direct red card, 4 points for a yellow card followed by a direct red card);
9. Position in the UEFA Nations League overall ranking.

 

Note:

- Germany are Automatically a POT 1 Team, So there are 5 More Top Seeds (6 Groups)

- Winners from PLAY-OFFS are automatically POT 4 TEAMS

 

Current Standings (MINUS the results against the bottom placed team for Groups of 6):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sPAM6KBimzCIqsRICuLOUT0R_UQsWzcWiv1rEnHS4DE/edit?usp=sharing

 

 

Prediction:

As a MINIMUM, Scotland will QUALIFY as a POT 2 Team.....WOW, just WOW.

Chances of being a POT 1 Team, I'd estimate 50/50......TRIPLE WOW!

 

[Texas Pete]

33 minutes ago, Craig Fae Hamilton said:

A Great STATS Thread this! To clarify the Tie Breakers for the SEEDING POTS for the Finals:

1. Position in the group; (i.e A 2nd Placed Team will always be Ranked LOWER than a Group WINNER, Regardless of Points)
2. Higher number of points;
3. Superior goal difference;
4. Higher number of goals scored;
5. Higher number of goals scored away from home;
6. Higher number of wins;
7. Higher number of wins away from home;
8. Fair play conduct (1 point for a single yellow card, 3 points for a red card as a consequence of two yellow cards, 3 points for a direct red card, 4 points for a yellow card followed by a direct red card);
9. Position in the UEFA Nations League overall ranking.

 

Note:

- Germany are Automatically a POT 1 Team, So there are 5 More Top Seeds (6 Groups)

- Winners from PLAY-OFFS are automatically POT 4 TEAMS

 

Current Standings (MINUS the results against the bottom placed team for Groups of 6):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sPAM6KBimzCIqsRICuLOUT0R_UQsWzcWiv1rEnHS4DE/edit?usp=sharing

 

 

Prediction:

As a MINIMUM, Scotland will QUALIFY as a POT 2 Team.....WOW, just WOW.

Chances of being a POT 1 Team, I'd estimate 50/50......TRIPLE WOW!

 

I like your enthusiasm but I’d say there’s a fair chance we could end up in pot 3 if we don’t win our group. We’d probably need to beat Georgia and Norway (although 4 points or possibly even 3 might be enough if other results go our way) to get the last pot 2 place if ee lose in Spain. Possible but not as guaranteed as you appear to think. 

If we go on to win our group then I’d say pot 1 was a real possibility as it probably means we have taken something in Spain or at least lost by 1 goal and win our last 2 games. 

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

Hey Pete

Yeah, it's complicated. But, anything equal to or better than a 1 Goal defeat in Spain would put us above Spain in the Group if we end up level on Points. That would give us a MINIMUM of POT 2 SEEDING! Like I said, WOW! We DRAW in Spain and win our last 2, 75% we would be a SEED 1?

For Clarification, the Group Tie-Breakers are:

1. Higher number of points obtained in the matches played among the teams in question;
2. Superior goal difference in matches played among the teams in question;
3. Higher number of goals scored in the matches played among the teams in question;
4. If, after having applied criteria 1 to 3, teams still have an equal ranking, criteria 1 to 3 are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the teams in question to determine their final rankings.^[a] If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria 5 to 11 apply;
5. Superior goal difference in all group matches;
6. Higher number of goals scored in all group matches;
7. Higher number of away goals scored in all group matches;
8. Higher number of wins in all group matches;
9. Higher number of away wins in all group matches;
10. Fair play conduct in all group matches (1 point for a single yellow card, 3 points for a red card as a consequence of two yellow cards, 3 points for a direct red card, 4 points for a yellow card followed by a direct red card);
11. Position in the UEFA Nations League overall ranking.

 

I updated the Table to include last nights games. If we lose in Spain by more than 2 Goals, currently we'd be in a shoot out with Austria for the last POT 2 Position. Lose in Spain by 2 Goals exactly and I reckon we will win our last 2 and end up with a POT 2 SEED.

I stand by my prediction, POT 2 as a MINIMUM, although, it is on a KNIFE EDGE!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sPAM6KBimzCIqsRICuLOUT0R_UQsWzcWiv1rEnHS4DE/edit?usp=sharing