phart Posted September 19, 2020 Share Posted September 19, 2020 Spaina and France both upwards of 13k last 24 hours. Obviously it's not like for like when looking back to March as a lot more testing now than then. Best practices in treating it are coming on too so death rate is still low thankfully. Lag time between infection to hospitalisation and then unforunately death is weeks though so hard to tell how much best practices mitigates this. Also tens of thousands of people have developed long term health complications off the back of it as well. Divergent theories on what the best way to move forward is too. An epidemiologist i follow has been saying since we're in it for the long haul outside meetings (like beaches etc) shouldn't be a major problem relatively as can't have folk cooped up with no social contact for what essentially is going to be 18 months or so. Focus should be on mitigating indoor transmission as that's where most of it seems to be coming from. Again totally different events but the timeline is following Spanish flu if you map their rise and offset the curves by a month. I'm hoping the magnitude of the curves doesn't follow the same course though as the 2nd "wave" was a lot bigger than first, coronavirus seems to be lethal to a lot less people thankfully though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 I see #saynotolockdown is trending this morning. I hope the "it's false positives" and "herd immunity" folk are right and it's nowhere as bad as "we need to lockdown now, an extra week waiting means 7 week longer lockdown" are making it out to be. The experiment is happening in real time. If a lockdown is announced though would be good to have, but obviously impossible, a counterfactual reality where it didn't happen. Folk point ot Sweden but been looking at the data they had loads of restrictions too, London travel shutdown by 60% Stockholm was 50%, Sweden also has the 13th worst death by capita rate with about 6000 total deaths and 88,237 total cases. Their neighbours, Norway is 90th with 267 total deaths and 12,858 total cases. Finland is 82nd with 339 total deaths and 8,980 total cases, both have half the population. Both have clearly protected the vulnerable much better. However the virus isn't finished yet so Sweden by the end might still have had the best strategy. Been interesting reading articles referencing old newspapers from 1918, you forget how often history repeats itself. Same sort of arguments about masks, government control, in America police chiefs refusing to comply with governor mandates etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 I'm not sure we need stricter regulations. I think we need tougher enforcement of the existing regulations. If folk would follow the current guidelines, I think it would be possible to open up the economy even more. But too many folk are ignoring them. I don't know how they would go about stronger enforcement but it's starting to look like the "trust the people to do the right thing" approach is starting to wear off. We are about 4 weeks behind Spain and France AGAIN. I hope we don't make the same mistakes as last time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Orraloon said: I'm not sure we need stricter regulations. I think we need tougher enforcement of the existing regulations. If folk would follow the current guidelines, I think it would be possible to open up the economy even more. But too many folk are ignoring them. I don't know how they would go about stronger enforcement but it's starting to look like the "trust the people to do the right thing" approach is starting to wear off. We are about 4 weeks behind Spain and France AGAIN. I hope we don't make the same mistakes as last time. Test and trace has been privatised to Serco and other mobs, instead of using the NHS. It's a shambles. Whole point of lockdown was to "flatten curve" then could use testa nd trace to isolate like South Korea. Had loads of time to get it up and running properly, but Tories profiteering by using private companies rather than enabling the NHS to do it. Folk having to lose jobs and lockdown cause the government couldn't sort out the testing is crazy as fuck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mariokempes56 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Had a friend just recovered from covid19, finished his isolation couple of days ago. He's feeling fine but stinks, I mean he smelled of stale vomit.. anyone come across this side effect of recovery? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
er yir macaroon Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 (edited) On 9/14/2020 at 11:36 AM, mccaughey85 said: Well I knew there would be one ignorant person who ironically calls me ignorant meanwhile doesn't explain why. Its not a case of letting 10s of thousands die to get the economy going again. Its a harsh fact that the world must go on and vulnerable ppl should be self isolating or take the risks like everyone else. I have said that I believe that vulnerable ppl should be given financial support to self isolate until we get a vaccine. The idea that society has to social distance and wear masks is not universally agreed on by the medical and scientific community. The whole situation has brought out ppl like yourself who think they are better than other ppl because they don't agree with social distancing and mask wearing. You need to step back and not be so arrogant and accept other ppls opinions on the subject. I would rather see us go the way of China and have the police beat the shit out of people who refuse to wear masks. I’d apply that to those who discard drinks bottles and other soiled litter that threatens the life of those expected to pick it up. Edited September 20, 2020 by er yir macaroon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccaughey85 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, er yir macaroon said: I would rather see us go the way of China and have the police beat the shit out of people who refuse to wear masks. I’d apply that to those who discard drinks bottles and other soiled litter that threatens the life of those expected to pick it up. Lol sounds like you should go live in China. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vanderark14 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Theres been Some instances of panic buyinh again in the uk. I really hope supermarketsngetna hold on it this time. Get the queuing systems in place again and limit purchases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 There's still a huge disagreement on how serious it is. We're going to find out one way or another over the next 6 months. Interesting take on what is happening behind the scenes as well, (long read) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Some advice https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/21/local-lockdowns-begin-no-normal-advice-live-with-covid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 6.3% positive rating last 24 hours. Hard to attribute that to false positives since that should be a linear amount (within a margin of error). Instead it's increaing despite less tests. That can only be attributed to actual more positive tests. Was up at 26% in April 18th this year (highest single day amount fo infections though so still thankfully low. Looking at March 19th though was also 6.3%. I was going to use March 18th but was a really low level of tests and new positives that day so went one after and randomly turned out to be the same as last 24 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 It all very well imposing more restrictions, and I would support that, but the the folk ignoring the current restrictions aren't going to be any more likely to follow the new ones. It might be time to start thinking about getting the squaddies out and about with big sticks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErsatzThistle Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Orraloon said: It all very well imposing more restrictions, and I would support that, but the the folk ignoring the current restrictions aren't going to be any more likely to follow the new ones. It might be time to start thinking about getting the squaddies out and about with big sticks? Getting the cannon fodder to do a police officers work has always been a recipe for disaster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 37 minutes ago, Orraloon said: It all very well imposing more restrictions, and I would support that, but the the folk ignoring the current restrictions aren't going to be any more likely to follow the new ones. It might be time to start thinking about getting the squaddies out and about with big sticks? Need to get the testing out of for profit hands into the local NHS that actually allows us to solve the problem rather than enforcing symptoms of the problem. The government promoted one of the highest risk scenarios with the eat out thing. It's been a shambles the response. Going all totalitarian will just create more problems down the road. The solution is the same get testing done, provide isolation (hotels etc) to quarantine and remove lines of infection. This was known back in March and we're all talking about back on page 30 odd on here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 I'll be interested to hear the logic behind the 2200 pub closing time. That is bound to lead to more house parties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirrelhumper Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 Logic will be the hope theres more house parties and then they can blame an upsurge in that instead of their incompetence the past 6 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 14 hours ago, ErsatzThistle said: Getting the cannon fodder to do a police officers work has always been a recipe for disaster. Aye, my squaddies comment wasn't entirely serious. I do think that both Scottish and Uk governments are running out of ideas about what to do. They have let it get out of control again and I don't think they have much idea about how to stop it. We are only at about 4000 cases per day and the testing system has all but collapsed. The only chance the Scottish government have is if they can get total control over the testing system. The UK gov isn't going to let them do that and it's probably too late now anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaundy Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 Someone mentioned those who aren’t following restrictions. Seems to me that some places have long given up on any attempt to restrict social closeness. Here in Anglia most folk are out and about as normal . Thousands in Jesus Green yesterday enjoying the live music being played , zero plod . Punting packing the river . This is , as it all is , a case of who you are perceived to be by the state . Do as you’re telt ya fek in plebs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vanderark14 Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Shaundy said: Someone mentioned those who aren’t following restrictions. Seems to me that some places have long given up on any attempt to restrict social closeness. Here in Anglia most folk are out and about as normal . Thousands in Jesus Green yesterday enjoying the live music being played , zero plod . Punting packing the river . This is , as it all is , a case of who you are perceived to be by the state . Do as you’re telt ya fek in plebs. Its the same in hampshire. The majority going about as if its business as usual. This is what happens when the message sent out by the government is as clear as mud Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 The message has been by committee, the "scientists" saying one thing and the "economists" the other. The government then "compromises" and you get the shit show that no one advised. Testing is a shambles. Put out to cronies. I don't watch the news but the epidemiologists/virologists and front line doctors i've been following have been complaining of the absolute charlatans and ultracrepidarians who've been given platforms on the news to spout all sorts of "nonsense". Government have totally failed to create the cirumstances where we don't even need any lockdowns. If we had a functioning testing system, facilities for quarantine and a coherent economic package then we could probably even avoid local "lockdowns". Rushing people back to work, creating systems that actually incentivised high-risk behaviours, truncated furlough schemes, mixed messaging, not adhereing to own rules and profiteering have all brought us here. Of course the Tories will blame the citizens for this and not themselves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 383 new cases of COVID-19 reported; this is 7.6% of newly tested individuals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThistleWhistle Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 I was in Co-Op this morning and the beer, pasta, fish finger and toilet roll sections have already taken a hammering. We were out of toilet roll so was left with the dichotomy of: 9 rolls of quadruple quilted fragrance moisturises your arse Andrex best emblazend with puppies for £8 or; 2x four back or Co-op value rip your sphincter tracing paper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 (edited) good thread imo Miguel Hernán is a Spanish-American epidemiologist, currently the Kolokotrones Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and Member of the Faculty at the Harvard–MIT Program in Health Sciences and Technology Edited September 22, 2020 by phart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 the two main slides Our government fucked up contact tracing and implemented economic incentives to dine inside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said: I was in Co-Op this morning and the beer, pasta, fish finger and toilet roll sections have already taken a hammering. We were out of toilet roll so was left with the dichotomy of: 9 rolls of quadruple quilted fragrance moisturises your arse Andrex best emblazend with puppies for £8 or; 2x four back or Co-op value rip your sphincter tracing paper. fuck my gran was on the phone saying she needed toilet roll as well. If i trundle in with 4 ply she'll complain it blocks the toilet, if i come in with tracing paper i'll be sent back out to rake the shops for "normal" shit tickets. She wants 12 packets of skips as well. Edited September 22, 2020 by phart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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