Voting

[Stu101]

Delighted that Andy Wightman made it.

Not a green voter, and we disagree much stuff, but his knowledge (especially on property) is great and if he puts half the effort into the Scottish parliament that he does on his research, and books, then he'll be a fine servant.

[aaid]

There could be an extreme amount of karma in play regarding the Edinburgh Central and Lothians List results.

There's been a lot of handbags over the Edinburgh Central result, with the Greens being accused of splitting the Indy vote and letting the Tories get in.   However if you look at what would have happened to the list had the SNP won that seat, there's two very interesting outcomes.

Firstly the additional seat wouldn't have been enough to give the SNP an overall majority, they would still have been one short but that would put you into that interesting area where they didn't have a majority but when you took out the PO, couldn't be outvoted.   As it stands, it makes it a lot more likely that the SNP will have to come to some form of loose arrangement with the Greens.  One of the outcomes of this could be a program of more radical land reform - I think that the Greens could push the SNP on that - and of course the final list MSP elected in Lothian was Mr Land Reform himself, Andy Wightman.

However, the SNP didn't win, Ruth Davidson got her big victory - which in the grand scheme of things didn't matter as she would still have come through on the list - but if you look at what the impact would have been if the SNP had won Edinburgh Central then the Tories would have picked up the last list seat in Lothian and so no Andy Wightman.

So from the Green's point of view, standing Alison Johnstone in Edinburgh Central may well have meant that they got an extra MSP - I suspect that's more luck than judgement.

From the Tories point of view, the likely outcome of Ruth's big moment may well be a more radical land reform program being led by the country's leading land reform advocate.

That's something that I'm sure will go down well with the big Tory landowning grandees.

Caveat - I hope my arithmetic is correct on this, but by my reckoning, in this situation it would mean the Tories would have 18743 votes compared to the Green's 17276.

[biffer]

1 hour ago, Scunnered said:

Young Kirsty is either being Naive there, or deliberitely stirring up shite, Cove tells me she's alright so I'll give her the benefit of the doubt.  Every single count I've ever been at there has always been an applause for the winner.  Allan Wilson (Lab) applauded Kenny Gibson (SNP), Patrcia Gibson (SNP) applauded Katy Clark (LAB), Katy Clark (LAB) applauded Patricia Gibson (SNP).

Although...

 

 

[Stu101]

2 minutes ago, aaid said:

There could be an extreme amount of karma in play regarding the Edinburgh Central and Lothians List results.

There's been a lot of handbags over the Edinburgh Central result, with the Greens being accused of splitting the Indy vote and letting the Tories get in.   However if you look at what would have happened to the list had the SNP won that seat, there's two very interesting outcomes.

Firstly the additional seat wouldn't have been enough to give the SNP an overall majority, they would still have been one short but that would put you into that interesting area where they didn't have a majority but when you took out the PO, couldn't be outvoted.   As it stands, it makes it a lot more likely that the SNP will have to come to some form of loose arrangement with the Greens.  One of the outcomes of this could be a program of more radical land reform - I think that the Greens could push the SNP on that - and of course the final list MSP elected in Lothian was Mr Land Reform himself, Andy Wightman.

However, the SNP didn't win, Ruth Davidson got her big victory - which in the grand scheme of things didn't matter as she would still have come through on the list - but if you look at what the impact would have been if the SNP had won Edinburgh Central then the Tories would have picked up the last list seat in Lothian and so no Andy Wightman.

So from the Green's point of view, standing Alison Johnstone in Edinburgh Central may well have meant that they got an extra MSP - I suspect that's more luck than judgement.

From the Tories point of view, the likely outcome of Ruth's big moment may well be a more radical land reform program being led by the country's leading land reform advocate.

That's something that I'm sure will go down well with the big Tory landowning grandees.

Caveat - I hope my arithmetic is correct on this, but by my reckoning, in this situation it would mean the Tories would have 18743 votes compared to the Green's 17276.

That's a really good summary. Interestingly I think the main reason that the Land Reform stuff was scaled back last time, was what was proposed simply wasn't practical in terms of the resources at the disposal of SG (who at the outset seemed not to fully understand its results- especially in terms of Human Rights law and foreign investment).  

[biffer]

56 minutes ago, adamntg said:

You think Greens took votes from Tories and Labour?

I don't dispute their right to run.  I voted for them.  I'm only saying that the way Scotland is at the moment, you won't get much fence-jumping. You're SNP/Green or you're Unionist, broadly speaking. 

Given the way the SNP swept most of the FPTP seats I think BothVotes was a mistake. They needed regional votes in the south, highlands and Edinburgh.  You'd have been as well putting a second SNP vote straight in the bin in Glasgow and Central. 

Greens have taken a lot of votes from the LibDems.

[littleboyblue]

3 hours ago, the_burger said:

The worst thing for me is that having moved flats 2 days ago I am now represented by Ruth Davidson 

 

I had similar five years ago when I moved house on 5/5/11.  Followed the removal van out the street after voting for Bill Kidd, helping him to a majority of 7 and woke up to James Kelly as my MSP the next day.

Glad to say Kelly was removed yesterday, albeit he is back in as fourth on the Glasgow list.

[Ally Bongo]

And yet all i see on the telly is grinning fvckwit Rennie and Grotbags Davidson

[McDange]

Pretty pleased with the overall result if I'm honest. I'm more pro-indy than SNP and if we get an SNP / Green coalition this might help drop the one party state / dictatorship pish we get in the media. 

Labour though, wow. I honestly thought they'd hang onto second place but as already mentioned looks like they lost out to their arch rivals, the Tories. Guess the Red Tory mantra isn't as far fetched as some would believe! Surely the only way back is to form an actual Scottish Labour Party and ditch the Branch Office status.  

[Alibi]

My take on the results is that the unionist vote has moved from Labour to Tory - not as the BBC were trying to spin it, from SNP to Tory.  The SNP vote seems to be pretty much the same as in 2011, possibly up a wee bit, so you would expect them to have more MSPs, but with 47% of the constituency vote they have slightly less than half the MSPs, which suggests that on this occasion the PR system has worked fairly accurately as far as the SNP are concerned.  I think the Tories have more seats than their vote share deserves and Labour maybe a wee bit less.  I assume that the PR system works in your favour if you don't win too many seats and once you get above the sweet spot (whatever the SNP got last time in the first vote), it falls back to become more in line with proportionality.

There is still a Yes majority at Holyrood, so given appropriate conditions another referendum is on.

As far as forming a working majority, is there a possibility of a coalition with the Greens (I would suggest maybe they could be offered the post of environment minister)?  Or is a minority issue by issue deal more likely?  whatever happens, the SNP should not touch any deal with the Tories or Labour of the LibDems.  They don't need to and any attempt to do so on anything other than an issue by issue approach would alienate a lot of people.

[ErsatzThistle]

Lib Dems lost £23,500 in deposits. And yet they and their mates in the media are portraying this as some sort of big comeback ? 

[PapofGlencoe]

I'm absolutely knackered after staying up but I can't help but feel independence is off for the foreseeable.

Huge swathes of Scotland only SNP 35-39% only without Green candidate to split.  Of course, still good enough to win in most areas but SNP has a second target of 50% (plus half to two thirds the green vote) as an extra measure to check.

The Unionists haven't gone away and in some specific areas (where their leaders are/rammed with posho No voters) they are using their majority to defeat us.

Clear West v East/South divide in our country now.  Strange dynamic as the most industrial, heavily (dare I say most important) populated going strong SNP.  Other areas weakening slightly.  Difficult strategy going forward to appeal to Maryhill and Perthshire.  May need a new story.  Perhaps this is the peak, SNP done so well that anything below expectations is a disappointment. 

 

[ErsatzThistle]

 

[Auld_Reekie]

5 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

I'm absolutely knackered after staying up but I can't help but feel independence is off for the foreseeable.

Huge swathes of Scotland only SNP 35-39% only without Green candidate to split.  Of course, still good enough to win in most areas but SNP has a second target of 50% (plus half to two thirds the green vote) as an extra measure to check.

The Unionists haven't gone away and in some specific areas (where their leaders are/rammed with posho No voters) they are using their majority to defeat us.

Clear West v East/South divide in our country now.  Strange dynamic as the most industrial, heavily (dare I say most important) populated going strong SNP.  Other areas weakening slightly.  Difficult strategy going forward to appeal to Maryhill and Perthshire.  May need a new story.  Perhaps this is the peak, SNP done so well that anything below expectations is a disappointment. 

 

Independence was off for the foreseeable future even before this election. Unfortunately, some Yes types have been over excitable and see the referendum and Westminster results as some pre-cursor to imminent independence. It clearly wasnt and hopefully it will now sink in how much work still has to do be done.

We've got a tonne of votes still to win over to independence and sneering about Red Tories, Paco McSheepie, baying for blood in Orkney and Shetland, mocking No voters, Unionists, etc, etc, etc all results in what we've seen last night and actually makes it more difficult to win people over to independence. Far, far too many people thought independence was a formality and was just around the corner. Well, it clear isn't and it's clearly not. The Unionist vote is entrenching which means we've got to work even harder to win them over.

For me, I'd be starting with the Liberal Democrats - try and tease them on board to push for federalism. Let them influence policy and show Scotland the positive effects of liberalism disconnected from the Westminster orthodoxy. Start with the Offensive Behaviour at Football Act. Let remaining Labour members and voters see what can happen if they loosen their attachment to the Union.

Let's be honest about one thing - it is far better this happened now than in 2020/2021. Another five years of SNP/Yes complacency would have been an utter disaster. I hope this is a reminder of what still needs to be done.

[aaid]

Nicola has just said she'll be looking to lead a minority government, no formal arrangements with any other parties. 

[ErsatzThistle]

Remember folks, we still have George Galloway's impending humiliation in the London Mayoral election to come later on. 

[Redz]

2 hours ago, neilser said:

Same in NE Scotland - the fibbers get a list MSP with 18,000 votes, the Greens get no list MSPs with their 15,000 votes (Tories get 4 MSPs with their 85K list votes , Lab 2 with 38K) and 137,000 SNP list votes count for nothing.

I sat watching that unfold on the iplayer and couldn't understand it. 

Now I'll happily admit to my ignorance if someone with a bit of know how and patience could take the time to explain it please.

[phart]

Voting green worked out perfectly for me, Wrightman in as second Green List.

[Auld_Reekie]

1 minute ago, phart said:

Voting green worked out perfectly for me, Wrightman in as second Green List.

Top work. Managed to persaude a couple of people in Lothians to give Greens vote on list and great Andy Wightman is elected. Major coup for Greens and I expect Andy will be central player in extracting concessions from SNP on Land Reform - could be one of the most influential MSPs this session IMO. 

Disappointed Kirsten Robb didnt get elected in Central Scotland though.

[neilser]

4 minutes ago, Redz said:

I sat watching that unfold on the iplayer and couldn't understand it. 

Now I'll happily admit to my ignorance if someone with a bit of know how and patience could take the time to explain it please.

This is a decent enough summary:

 

http://wingsoverscotland.com/ams-for-lazy-people/

[phart]

3 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

Top work. Managed to persaude a couple of people in Lothians to give Greens vote on list and great Andy Wightman is elected. Major coup for Greens and I expect Andy will be central player in extracting concessions from SNP on Land Reform - could be one of the most influential MSPs this session IMO. 

Disappointed Kirsten Robb didnt get elected in Central Scotland though.

Yeah i spent a lot of time with friends telling them how good Wightman is on Land reform etc. Got just about everyone i know and votes to consider Green as list vote. I was thinking the same depending on what issue dominate this Parliament he could be a valuable asset for the people.

[Redz]

6 minutes ago, neilser said:

This is a decent enough summary:

 

http://wingsoverscotland.com/ams-for-lazy-people/

Thanks neilser!

I'm pleased you sent me the simplified link........

[aaid]

5 minutes ago, Redz said:

I sat watching that unfold on the iplayer and couldn't understand it. 

Now I'll happily admit to my ignorance if someone with a bit of know how and patience could take the time to explain it please.

Well you asked for it - each party's list vote is divided by the number of seats they have +1, 7 rounds.

Overall List Votes

SNP 137086; LAB 38791; CON 85848; LIB 18444; GREEN 15123

Constituency seats: SNP 9, CON 1.

Round 1 SNP 137086/10 = 13709; LAB 38791/1= 38791; CON 85848/2 = 42924; LIB 18444/1=18444; GREEN 15123/1=15123  CON WIN
Round 2 SNP 137086/10 = 13709; LAB 38791/1= 38791; CON 85848/3 = 28616; LIB 18444/1=18444; GREEN 15123/1=15123  LAB WIN
Round 3 SNP 137086/10 = 13709; LAB 38791/2= 19396; CON 85848/3 = 28616; LIB 18444/1=18444; GREEN 15123/1=15123  CON WIN
Round 4 SNP 137086/10 = 13709; LAB 38791/2= 19396; CON 85848/4 = 21462; LIB 18444/1=18444; GREEN 15123/1=15123  CON WIN
Round 5 SNP 137086/10 = 13709; LAB 38791/2= 19396; CON 85848/5 = 17170; LIB 18444/1=18444; GREEN 15123/1=15123  LAB WIN
Round 6 SNP 137086/10 = 13709; LAB 38791/2= 19396; CON 85848/5 = 17170; LIB 18444/1=18444; GREEN 15123/1=15123  LIB WIN
Round 6 SNP 137086/10 = 13709; LAB 38791/2= 19396; CON 85848/5 = 17170; LIB 18444/2=9222; GREEN 15123/1=15123  CON WIN

 

[Orraloon]

5 hours ago, Scunnered said:

 

Biggest plus for me may surprise you   Jeane Freeman being elected to the SNP.  I have a lot of time for her and she told me that she will not be held as easily to party whip as her colleagues...  And I believe her.  I actually have high hopes that she will stick the nut on Swinney during the course of this parliament.

At last you have found a burd to support who is capable of getting elected. I thought Katy was getting parachuted into Ogmore? What happened there?

[neilser]

11 minutes ago, Redz said:

Thanks neilser!

I'm pleased you sent me the simplified link........

  Nae bother...

[Ally Bongo]

How depressing

http://wingsoverscotland.com/dont-say-we-didnt-tell-you/