Euro 2024 - group discussion

[Texas Pete]

Just now, Caledonian Craig said:

Yes that is right we won our first three matches in that campaign - Faroe Islands (H) 6-0, Lithuania (A) 2-1 and France (H) 1-0.

I don’t want to appear greedy but 4 wins out of 4 in this campaign and we could almost start to get ready to think about contemplating looking out the passports. 

Even 4 points from the next 2 games would be lovely. 

[Caledonian Craig]

Just now, Texas Pete said:

I don’t want to appear greedy but 4 wins out of 4 in this campaign and we could almost start to get ready to think about contemplating looking out the passports. 

Even 4 points from the next 2 games would be lovely. 

Indeed. Four points from the next two games would put us in a very strong position.

[thesaint]

32 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Indeed. Four points from the next two games would put us in a very strong position.

Yes. Would be in a strong position. Will be interesting to see how Norway respond after their first two games. To be honest when you look at it clearly, they lost in Spain and drew in Georgia. Would anybody have expected them to get anything in Spain and a draw in Georgia isn't terrible. So got a feeling they will come out at home to us well fired up as they know a defeat to us will put them under real pressure. Could be an interesting night in Oslo. 

[Caledonian Craig]

2 minutes ago, thesaint said:

Yes. Would be in a strong position. Will be interesting to see how Norway respond after their first two games. To be honest when you look at it clearly, they lost in Spain and drew in Georgia. Would anybody have expected them to get anything in Spain and a draw in Georgia isn't terrible. So got a feeling they will come out at home to us well fired up as they know a defeat to us will put them under real pressure. Could be an interesting night in Oslo. 

One thing clear is Norway's defence is by no means a solid unit. They have conceded four goals and even Georgia had plenty of shots on goal against them.

[Texas Pete]

35 minutes ago, thesaint said:

Yes. Would be in a strong position. Will be interesting to see how Norway respond after their first two games. To be honest when you look at it clearly, they lost in Spain and drew in Georgia. Would anybody have expected them to get anything in Spain and a draw in Georgia isn't terrible. So got a feeling they will come out at home to us well fired up as they know a defeat to us will put them under real pressure. Could be an interesting night in Oslo. 

Aye Norway are far from out of it. They have played 2 out of their 3 most difficult away games and we haven’t played any away games yet. 

If we can get more than 1 point from our games in Spain and Georgia we’ll be doing well. 

Getting off to a good start is very important though as we know to our cost so I’d much rather be in our position than Norway’s at the moment. 

[thesaint]

knowing if they lose to us they are in big trouble.

2 hours ago, Texas Pete said:

Aye Norway are far from out of it. They have played 2 out of their 3 most difficult away games and we haven’t played any away games yet. 

If we can get more than 1 point from our games in Spain and Georgia we’ll be doing well. 

Getting off to a good start is very important though as we know to our cost so I’d much rather be in our position than Norway’s at the moment. 

Definately getting six points out of six is greatI .As you say they have played two away games and we know only too well winning away from home is difficult. So i'm sure they will be super fired up to win their first game and put themselves back into contention knowing a defeat against us puts them in real trouble.Certainly pretty hopefull we can get something from the game but we will have to match their desire which i certainly think we can do.

[Texas Pete]

11 minutes ago, thesaint said:

knowing if they lose to us they are in big trouble.

Definately getting six points out of six is greatI .As you say they have played two away games and we know only too well winning away from home is difficult. So i'm sure they will be super fired up to win their first game and put themselves back into contention knowing a defeat against us puts them in real trouble.Certainly pretty hopefull we can get something from the game but we will have to match their desire which i certainly think we can do.

Aye if they don’t beat us in June they will be under all sorts of pressure so that will bring pressure in itself. 

A point in Norway followed up by a win at Hampden against Georgia would almost certainly mean Norway would need to come to Hampden to win at the end of the campaign to stand a chance. 

What could possibly go wrong? 

[thesaint]

2 minutes ago, Texas Pete said:

Aye if they don’t beat us in June they will be under all sorts of pressure so that will bring pressure in itself. 

A point in Norway followed up by a win at Hampden against Georgia would almost certainly mean Norway would need to come to Hampden to win at the end of the campaign to stand a chance. 

What could possibly go wrong? 

🥴😃

[thesaint]

I know it's early in the group but can't help feeling this Norway match will be really pivotal in it. We have followed up a real good result with a mare of a performance in the next game before. It is such a fine margin sometimes. A point and a follow up win against Georgia would be great. If we were to lose in Norway and say draw with Georgia then we would sort of be  back to square one. I am hoping that we have reached a point in the way we play where we can produce a good level of consistency in most games. Certainly think we can win in Norway but we will need to produce a good performance to do so. 

[Orraloon]

1 hour ago, thesaint said:

I know it's early in the group but can't help feeling this Norway match will be really pivotal in it. We have followed up a real good result with a mare of a performance in the next game before. It is such a fine margin sometimes. A point and a follow up win against Georgia would be great. If we were to lose in Norway and say draw with Georgia then we would sort of be  back to square one. I am hoping that we have reached a point in the way we play where we can produce a good level of consistency in most games. Certainly think we can win in Norway but we will need to produce a good performance to do so. 

We are 5 points ahead of Norway, which looks good, but we also have to take into account which games both of us have played so far. Based on rankings, we have played our hardest home game and our easiest home game. Norway still have all their home games to come. Norway have played their hardest away game and their 3rd hardest away game. Will Norway manage to beat Spain in Oslo? Who knows, but I think that's the only advantage we have achieved so far -beating Spain at Hampden. This result could prove to be the crucial difference in the end?

None of us would be surprised if we lose the away game in Spain, and none of us would be surprised if we were to drop points in Georgia. Just like Norway have done. So I'm with you in that our two games against Norway will probably still be what decides the outcome of the group. If we get 2 or 3 points from our next two games then I think we would be in a strong position. If we can get more than 3 points then we are cruising. I still have a feeling that it will come down to that last home game against Norway though.

[Orraloon]

1 minute ago, Orraloon said:

We are 5 points ahead of Norway, which looks good, but we also have to take into account which games both of us have played so far. Based on rankings, we have played our hardest home game and our easiest home game. Norway still have all their home games to come. Norway have played their hardest away game and their 3rd hardest away game. Will Norway manage to beat Spain in Oslo? Who knows, but I think that's the only advantage we have achieved so far -beating Spain at Hampden. This result could prove to be the crucial difference in the end?

None of us would be surprised if we lose the away game in Spain, and none of us would be surprised if we were to drop points in Georgia. Just like Norway have done. So I'm with you in that our two games against Norway will probably still be what decides the outcome of the group. If we get 2 or 3 points from our next two games then I think we would be in a strong position. If we can get more than 3 points then we are cruising. I still have a feeling that it will come down to that last home game against Norway though.

Ignore all that pish. For some reason I got it into my head that we were away to Georgia in June. The home game against Georgia is a must win game. So we need 4 points in June then I would probably settle for a point away to Georgia. 😂

[thesaint]

3 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

We are 5 points ahead of Norway, which looks good, but we also have to take into account which games both of us have played so far. Based on rankings, we have played our hardest home game and our easiest home game. Norway still have all their home games to come. Norway have played their hardest away game and their 3rd hardest away game. Will Norway manage to beat Spain in Oslo? Who knows, but I think that's the only advantage we have achieved so far -beating Spain at Hampden. This result could prove to be the crucial difference in the end?

None of us would be surprised if we lose the away game in Spain, and none of us would be surprised if we were to drop points in Georgia. Just like Norway have done. So I'm with you in that our two games against Norway will probably still be what decides the outcome of the group. If we get 2 or 3 points from our next two games then I think we would be in a strong position. If we can get more than 3 points then we are cruising. I still have a feeling that it will come down to that last home game against Norway though.

Yup. Although don't think 2 or 3 points from the next two games would put us in a strong position. Think we would need to take 4 for that to be the case. 

[Orraloon]

Just now, thesaint said:

Yup. Although don't think 2 or 3 points from the next two games would put us in a strong position. Think we would need to take 4 for that to be the case. 

Aye, you're right. See my post above. Got myself all confused.😂

Four points required in June. 👍

[Scots_Wha_Hae]

20 hours ago, Orraloon said:

We are 5 points ahead of Norway, which looks good, but we also have to take into account which games both of us have played so far. Based on rankings, we have played our hardest home game and our easiest home game. Norway still have all their home games to come. Norway have played their hardest away game and their 3rd hardest away game. Will Norway manage to beat Spain in Oslo? Who knows, but I think that's the only advantage we have achieved so far -beating Spain at Hampden. This result could prove to be the crucial difference in the end?

None of us would be surprised if we lose the away game in Spain, and none of us would be surprised if we were to drop points in Georgia. Just like Norway have done. So I'm with you in that our two games against Norway will probably still be what decides the outcome of the group. If we get 2 or 3 points from our next two games then I think we would be in a strong position. If we can get more than 3 points then we are cruising. I still have a feeling that it will come down to that last home game against Norway though.

That's fair enough on a home and away basis, but it does make it seem like our win at home was in some way an 'easier' match than Georgia away. If you rank all games I would say it is something like (from hardest to easiest):

1. Spain away

2. Spain home

3. Norway (Scotland) away

4. Georgia away

5. Norway (Scotland) home

6. Georgia home

7 Cyprus away

8 Cyprus home

We've played match 2 and 8. Norway have played match 1 and 4. Yes, theirs are obviously both tough but we have achieved a result in match 2 which nobody expected. You would usually assume you have to win matches 6-8 and win one and draw one of 3-5 to secure second place. I think Norway away is massive for us - it's a match you wouldn't expect to get a result out of being the hardest of those you might. Georgia home though, we have to win that.

All that bollocks to say, we are 3 points ahead of where we would expect to be and that is obviously good!

[Orraloon]

2 hours ago, Scots_Wha_Hae said:

That's fair enough on a home and away basis, but it does make it seem like our win at home was in some way an 'easier' match than Georgia away. If you rank all games I would say it is something like (from hardest to easiest):

1. Spain away

2. Spain home

3. Norway (Scotland) away

4. Georgia away

5. Norway (Scotland) home

6. Georgia home

7 Cyprus away

8 Cyprus home

We've played match 2 and 8. Norway have played match 1 and 4. Yes, theirs are obviously both tough but we have achieved a result in match 2 which nobody expected. You would usually assume you have to win matches 6-8 and win one and draw one of 3-5 to secure second place. I think Norway away is massive for us - it's a match you wouldn't expect to get a result out of being the hardest of those you might. Georgia home though, we have to win that.

All that bollocks to say, we are 3 points ahead of where we would expect to be and that is obviously good!

Agree with all of that except I would probably put Cyprus away above Georgia home. Not much in it though. 

The 3 points we got against Spain might mean that we will go into the last game needing a draw to qualify instead of a win? Then again, if we could win in Norway we should be thinking about qualifying with a game to spare, and maybe even winning the group. 

[Caledonian Craig]

End of the day if we can beat Spain then we should not be crapping ourselves about any of our other matches in this group. Stay focussed and maintain our high level and we will qualify by right and have no need for the play-offs.

Now I know us supporters have many mental scars where we have seen Scotland drop points against the group's lesser sides but it is how the players feel that matters. And this crop of players in recent times have been pretty damn efficient winning the old banana skin matches. Matches like:-

Faroe Islands (A) 1-0 win (WC Qualifiers)

Moldova (A) 2-0 win (WC Qualfiiers)

Cyprus (A) 2-1 win (Euro Qualifiers)

San Marino (A) 2-0 win (Euro Qualifiers)

The last slip up was over four years ago V Kazakhstan in Euro Qualifiers - a 3-0 loss. Lts remember though that was under Gordon Strachan not Steve Clarke.

 

[Miike]

7 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

End of the day if we can beat Spain then we should not be crapping ourselves about any of our other matches in this group. Stay focussed and maintain our high level and we will qualify by right and have no need for the play-offs.

Now I know us supporters have many mental scars where we have seen Scotland drop points against the group's lesser sides but it is how the players feel that matters. And this crop of players in recent times have been pretty damn efficient winning the old banana skin matches. Matches like:-

Faroe Islands (A) 1-0 win (WC Qualifiers)

Moldova (A) 2-0 win (WC Qualfiiers)

Cyprus (A) 2-1 win (Euro Qualifiers)

San Marino (A) 2-0 win (Euro Qualifiers)

The last slip up was over four years ago V Kazakhstan in Euro Qualifiers - a 3-0 loss. Lts remember though that was under Gordon Strachan not Steve Clarke.

 

It was Alex McLeish's awful second spell in charge, when we got thrashed by Kazakhstan. They beat Denmark 3-2 in the last round of qualifiers, so they're not as bad as the media like to make it out as. Right enough, 3-0 is pretty bad!

[Caledonian Craig]

1 minute ago, Miike said:

It was Alex McLeish's awful second spell in charge, when we got thrashed by Kazakhstan. They beat Denmark 3-2 in the last round of qualifiers, so they're not as bad as the media like to make it out as. Right enough, 3-0 is pretty bad!

Shows how much I have tried to erase that match from my memory. Of course it was McLeish in charge.

[Toepoke]

On 3/31/2023 at 5:02 PM, Texas Pete said:

I don’t want to appear greedy but 4 wins out of 4 in this campaign and we could almost start to get ready to think about contemplating looking out the passports. 

If (in the unlikely but possible event that) Cyprus lose every game, the group effectively becomes a Champions League table. Two wins in June would have us on 9 points in the mini league, often enough for teams to qualify from the CL with.

 

[Judith]

Beating Spain at home was huge.

If we win our remaining home games and beat Cyprus away we qualify as the other 3 have to cut their own throats regardless of what way those games go.

Of course its always nice to have a wee insurance policy just in case, so a draw in Oslo or Georgia would really take the pressure off.

[thesaint]

3 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

End of the day if we can beat Spain then we should not be crapping ourselves about any of our other matches in this group. Stay focussed and maintain our high level and we will qualify by right and have no need for the play-offs.

Now I know us supporters have many mental scars where we have seen Scotland drop points against the group's lesser sides but it is how the players feel that matters. And this crop of players in recent times have been pretty damn efficient winning the old banana skin matches. Matches like:-

Faroe Islands (A) 1-0 win (WC Qualifiers)

Moldova (A) 2-0 win (WC Qualfiiers)

Cyprus (A) 2-1 win (Euro Qualifiers)

San Marino (A) 2-0 win (Euro Qualifiers)

The last slip up was over four years ago V Kazakhstan in Euro Qualifiers - a 3-0 loss. Lts remember though that was under Gordon Strachan not Steve Clarke.

 

That certainly is my hope.Although at least two of those games..Cyprus and Faroe Islands we were lucky to win.Here's hoping we can continue the progress we have made.

[mccaughey85]

Looking through the potential results we could qualify with 14 points especially if norway dont beat us in the next game in oslo.

Norway draw v us in the next game and win their remaining games v georgia and cyprus. That leaves them with 11 points and needing to beat us in the final game.

We take 4 points from the georgia games and beat cyprus away then avoid defeat in our last game against norway and we qualify with 14 points. 

Even if they get a draw against spain they still would need to beat us in the final match.

Beating spain has probably changed our chances of qualifying from about 40% to at least 70%

[marinello]

If we agree that Georgia away is the big banana skin for us and Norway then we are favoured over Norway by playing Georgia later in the group.

More specifically Norway got Georgia when the latter had everything to play for. Whereas when we go to Georgia they might more or less be out of the running.

And yes I do remember the last time in Tbilisi as I was there to witness a gutless performance by us. This Scotland though is very different.

 

 

[er yir macaroon]

The old adage is to take it one game at a time. No ifs and buts. We need to focus on beating Norway in the next game. If we do it, we’re almost there. 

[Caledonian Craig]

I can't remember which poster it was (apologies) enquiring how seeding will be worked out for teams that qualify. I replied thinking they'd go with their long favoured method of ranking and recent qualification/tournament record. Well having a dug around I find I was wrong.

The seeding pots for the qualifiers will be worked out purely on their qualifying record for this tournament. At present Scotland would comfortably we top seeds as we are ranked second at present behind only France (results against pot six teams to be disregarded).