Indyref 2 (2)

[PapofGlencoe]

It's now upto the people to support the cause in sufficient numbers.  No splits, no name calling.  A new, energised campaign of party and non-party.

That Channel 4 poll is incredible.  50% Yes, 34% No, 16% undecided.  Assuming it's an outlier (although it is a full scale poll, if it's real and sustainable new ball game entirely)...

The uncomfortable truth is the last Scottish election showed our country is split.  While that is the case, Unionists can arguably claim authority to block a vote.  However, the moment clear majorities emerge for independence this intransigence loses all democratic legitimacy.  This appears to be the trajectory.

The elephant in the room is independence support is on the rise.  Unionism is falling.  It's been slow but we've gone from 45% to 50% in 8 years.  Unionists can no longer claim with certainty there is a majority for their position.  That wasn't the case before.  There has been a shift.

I think it's obvious to any fair minded person... younger, educated people support independence in larger numbers than their predecessors.   And I don't mean 16 year olds.  I mean 30-45 year olds...the middle managers, the graduates, the firemen and the nurses... It's not an issue that's going away.  The UK will hope to wait it out and support to fade but I just don't see it reversing with this legal ruling and the powerful demographic shift that is underway.    I think unionists are now worried as by 2024, there is a good possibility of 50+1% being not only achievable but more likely than not. 

Whether that is enough is another question.  If you're a democrat, it should be.  However, we live in post 2014, post Brexit world.  I think the result does need to be stronger than that to carry acceptance amongst the defeated as well as the victor.

We'll see what happens in 2024 but if it ever becomes clear that an obvious majority of Scottish citizens desire independence and it is denied, I don't like where that can lead.  Democratic paths for legitimate opinions must be available.  It's not perfect but it's the best model we have. 

The problem for Yes is short term.  The problem for Unionism is long term. 

 

[PapofGlencoe]

duplicate

Edited November 24, 2022 by PapofGlencoe
duplicate

[Clyde1998]

43 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

That Channel 4 poll is incredible.  50% Yes, 34% No, 16% undecided.  Assuming it's an outlier (although it is a full scale poll, if it's real and sustainable new ball game entirely)...

The question was: "Would you vote SNP at the next general election if a victory for them could lead to Scotland leaving the UK?" - so not a standard independence question.

Similarly on the question "Would you vote SNP at the next general election if your vote would be used as a mandate to negotiate independence with the UK Government?", it was Yes 51%; No 33%.

The fact as many as 16% are undecided, suggests they could be persuaded to vote SNP in a 'de-facto referendum' - with a potential 66% to be won; support is highly unlikely to get to that level mind.

A standard independence question, and election poll, right now would be very interesting.

[mccaughey85]

1 hour ago, PapofGlencoe said:

It's now upto the people to support the cause in sufficient numbers.  No splits, no name calling.  A new, energised campaign of party and non-party.

That Channel 4 poll is incredible.  50% Yes, 34% No, 16% undecided.  Assuming it's an outlier (although it is a full scale poll, if it's real and sustainable new ball game entirely)...

The uncomfortable truth is the last Scottish election showed our country is split.  While that is the case, Unionists can arguably claim authority to block a vote.  However, the moment clear majorities emerge for independence this intransigence loses all democratic legitimacy.  This appears to be the trajectory.

The elephant in the room is independence support is on the rise.  Unionism is falling.  It's been slow but we've gone from 45% to 50% in 8 years.  Unionists can no longer claim with certainty there is a majority for their position.  That wasn't the case before.  There has been a shift.

I think it's obvious to any fair minded person... younger, educated people support independence in larger numbers than their predecessors.   And I don't mean 16 year olds.  I mean 30-45 year olds...the middle managers, the graduates, the firemen and the nurses... It's not an issue that's going away.  The UK will hope to wait it out and support to fade but I just don't see it reversing with this legal ruling and the powerful demographic shift that is underway.    I think unionists are now worried as by 2024, there is a good possibility of 50+1% being not only achievable but more likely than not. 

Whether that is enough is another question.  If you're a democrat, it should be.  However, we live in post 2014, post Brexit world.  I think the result does need to be stronger than that to carry acceptance amongst the defeated as well as the victor.

We'll see what happens in 2024 but if it ever becomes clear that an obvious majority of Scottish citizens desire independence and it is denied, I don't like where that can lead.  Democratic paths for legitimate opinions must be available.  It's not perfect but it's the best model we have. 

The problem for Yes is short term.  The problem for Unionism is long term. 

 

I think this cost of living crisis is really starting to hit home with ppl. Winters pretty much here and scots(and english) cant pay their bills or heat their homes and its finally starting to dawn on everyone that maybe independence would be a better option than getting royally shafted by the tories. 

I was kind of expecting or hoping that their would be a shift in the polls due to this and maybe this is the start of it. Obviously have to see what future polls say as this might be an outlier or a one off. 

Its a case of being forced into indy rather than choosing it if the union continues to run for tory elites.

[hampden_loon2878]

1 hour ago, Clyde1998 said:

The question was: "Would you vote SNP at the next general election if a victory for them could lead to Scotland leaving the UK?" - so not a standard independence question.

Similarly on the question "Would you vote SNP at the next general election if your vote would be used as a mandate to negotiate independence with the UK Government?", it was Yes 51%; No 33%.

The fact as many as 16% are undecided, suggests they could be persuaded to vote SNP in a 'de-facto referendum' - with a potential 66% to be won; support is highly unlikely to get to that level mind.

A standard independence question, and election poll, right now would be very interesting.

i am a snp member and i would struggle to vote for the current snp as it stands, i simply do not trust them. i want independence more than anything but some of the actions and behaviors of folk in the party has been shady to say the least 

[hampden_loon2878]

i engaged in some of the social media politics on facebook tonight the first in a long time , it actually took over my life for a while, what is very apparent is the fake accounts that are on there compared to what there used to be. its a different ball game al together 

[Malcolm]

5 hours ago, exile said:

But, but... aren't the younger demographic more likely to be more green and lefty and anti growth and woke and all the things that would push you away? 😉

 

5 hours ago, exile said:

But, but... aren't the younger demographic more likely to be more green and lefty and anti growth and woke and all the things that would push you away? 😉

im talking about what I would do if I wanted to achieve the objective of independence from a strategic perspective.  If you want to win a vote.

Events such as covid, the war and forthcoming economic depression have conspired against the snp inn5hat objective.  The mistake they have made is assuming that the relative prosperity of the last couple of decades would continue.

they need to be doing some serious scenario planning and assessing strategic options against a variety of political, economic, and social dimensions to determine which strategy will most likely achieve their objective. That’s what you would do if you were running a bid company or if they brought in a management consultant to advise them.

generally speaking youngsters tend to vote for change and are more left wing and idealistic.  As people get older and accumulate wealth they tend to vote more safely and protect their wealth.  Massive generalisation, but think there is some truth in that.

 

 

 

 

 

[Malcolm]

1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

i am a snp member and i would struggle to vote for the current snp as it stands, i simply do not trust them. i want independence more than anything but some of the actions and behaviors of folk in the party has been shady to say the least 

agreed, I don’t think there can be any attempt to try and conflate the idea that voting snp and supporting independence are the same thing.

Half the people on this board who are pro independence have been pointing that out to me for months so I think it’s a bit rich to then suggest there could be any concept of a defacto referendum.

 

[hampden_loon2878]

18 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

agreed, I don’t think there can be any attempt to try and conflate the idea that voting snp and supporting independence are the same thing.

Half the people on this board who are pro independence have been pointing that out to me for months so I think it’s a bit rich to then suggest there could be any concept of a defacto referendum.

 

The only way I can see a defacto working is if another election is called once the dust has settled in a iscotland,, it really  does muddie the waters 

[vanderark14]

42 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

agreed, I don’t think there can be any attempt to try and conflate the idea that voting snp and supporting independence are the same thing.

Half the people on this board who are pro independence have been pointing that out to me for months so I think it’s a bit rich to then suggest there could be any concept of a defacto referendum.

 

Thats not quite true tho is it. What half the people have said is they don't support the SNP but they support independence and they see the SNP as a means to an end. If I were still in Scotland I'd vote SNP everyday of the week because at this time there no other party  can deliver independence 

Edited November 24, 2022 by vanderark14

[aaid]

7 hours ago, Dave78 said:

 

You know fine well that as people get older, they get more (small C) conservative, and less willing to take what they perceive are risks to their wealth.

 

In this respect at least that doesn’t appear to be happening.

When you look at polling data by age groups you see that slowly the older age groups are becoming more pro - or less anti - indy.  For example, I don’t think that’s about people changing their minds, rather it’s as people get older and move up the brackets, they’re not changing their minds  

[aaid]

3 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

i am a snp member and i would struggle to vote for the current snp as it stands, 

No you aren’t.  You’re someone who is in breach of his membership. 

[exile]

7 hours ago, Dave78 said:

Saw that. (I think his name was Tierney btw).

I couldn't disagree with anything he said. As difficult and inconvenient as it was to hear, he gave the cold hard legal reality.

 

At least Newsnight covered it. Switched over to Peston who devoted about 5 minutes, and he was just a nodding dog to Ruth Davidson before i switched off.

Yes that's what I meant. Must have been thinking of K Tierney 😅.

From what he said, it was as if we had become like Catalonia trapped within Spain - remember how before we always used to reckon we were better off than Catalonia because we were in a "Union of nations". Apparently not so now. 

Edited November 24, 2022 by exile

[aaid]

7 hours ago, Dave78 said:

Isn't it interesting that (in convenient hindsight) Malcolm says the SNP should have pushed for indy sooner, yet now advocates waiting 10 years (one might say 'a generation')?

In the same way he voted Yes in 2014.   At least Alan was honest in his views and I respected him for that. 

[vanderark14]

36 minutes ago, aaid said:

No you aren’t.  You’re someone who is in breach of his membership. 

Give it a fucking rest.. you already played a huge part in fucking the other thread but some how you survived it. You are already doing the same on here by taking aim at HL at every opportunity.

 

[hampden_loon2878]

48 minutes ago, aaid said:

No you aren’t.  You’re someone who is in breach of his membership. 

I am a member and have been for 10 years, you wouldn’t even manage to vote to help the cause in a referendum yet you somehow think you are better than everyone else and somehow your opinion matters more than anyone else’s, 

 

[hampden_loon2878]

1 hour ago, vanderark14 said:

Thats not quite true tho is it. What half the people have said is they don't support the SNP but they support independence and they see the SNP as a means to an end. If I were still in Scotland I'd vote SNP everyday of the week because at this time there no other party  can deliver independence 

You ever see yourself coming back up the road? The loon and yer wife’s nephew play in the same team, it’s really shaping up to be a cracking team. 

[aaid]

18 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

Give it a fucking rest.. you already played a huge part in fucking the other thread but some how you survived it. You are already doing the same on here by taking aim at HL at every opportunity.

 

I wasn’t the one who was throwing out accusations of paedophilia, just to be clear.

if HL stops misrepresenting himself, I won’t need to point out his duplicity.  

 

[vanderark14]

1 minute ago, aaid said:

I wasn’t the one who was throwing out accusations of paedophilia, just to be clear.

if HL stops misrepresenting himself, I won’t need to point out his duplicity.  

 

no you just threw out accusations of taking class A drugs, not the same as paedophilia granted but still no need. 

[aaid]

6 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I am a member and have been for 10 years, you wouldn’t even manage to vote to help the cause in a referendum yet you somehow think you are better than everyone else and somehow your opinion matters more than anyone else’s, 

 

I don’t think I’m better than anyone else.  I think the rules of membership apply to everyone. You’re the one who thinks they don’t apply to you. 

[vanderark14]

13 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

You ever see yourself coming back up the road? The loon and yer wife’s nephew play in the same team, it’s really shaping up to be a cracking team. 

Which Nephew - Under 13s or the younger one? They both love their fitba, I have see the older one play a few times but not the younger one yet but I hear he can really play.

we talk about moving back now and again. I fancy the Central belt near Edinburgh in the future but I would never rule out a permanent move back to the North east

[Orraloon]

9 hours ago, Dave78 said:

 

You know fine well that as people get older, they get more (small C) conservative, and less willing to take what they perceive are risks to their wealth.

 

The other side of that is that as people get older they tend to get more stubborn and set in their ways. At least some of them are less likely to change their views as they get more cantankerous with age. It's one of the reasons that I never try to persuade older people to change their minds. It's counterproductive. It tends to make them dig their heels in more.  

Edited November 24, 2022 by Orraloon

[Orraloon]

1 hour ago, aaid said:

No you aren’t.  You’re someone who is in breach of his membership. 

How can he be in breach of his membership if he isn't a member?

[daviebee]

I don't get the talk about how they can't deny democracy if the polls start to show a clear majority for indy.  When have they ever given a flying fck about that?  Did having ZERO MPs up here stop the Tories wrecking our industrial base?  Did it fck.  The more likely independence becomes the settled will of the Scottish people, the more they'll desperately cling on to their cash cow as they are royally fked without us.

So how do we escape?  No idea.  We won't be getting a referendum that's in the gift of our lords and masters that's for sure.

[PapofGlencoe]

22 minutes ago, daviebee said:

I don't get the talk about how they can't deny democracy if the polls start to show a clear majority for indy.  When have they ever given a flying fck about that?  Did having ZERO MPs up here stop the Tories wrecking our industrial base?  Did it fck.  The more likely independence becomes the settled will of the Scottish people, the more they'll desperately cling on to their cash cow as they are royally fked without us.

So how do we escape?  No idea.  We won't be getting a referendum that's in the gift of our lords and masters that's for sure.

That may in fact be true but it's never been tested by consistent majorities so I'm damned if I'm giving up before it has.