phart Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Grim Jim said: @phart just looks like concentration on 2nd doses. travellingtabby.com today... Aye the twitter thread goes into a bit more detail, seems capacity to deliver hasn't increased in the 11 weeks since those jags went out. Or that's the speculation of the thread. Obviously got to concentrate on the 2nd does. However it's meant the roll out to new people has stalled considerably. Edited April 24, 2021 by phart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grim Jim Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 Tabby's UK page shows our vaccination rate is very similar to England's and a bit behind Wales. (Does Wales have an older population?) The 11 weeks ago dip looks where brakes were put on 1st doses to start 2nd. I don't see anything wrong, other than caution that supplies will continue to be adequate for "giving all those people 2nd doses soon". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 again all the info is in the twitter thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 4 hours ago, phart said: again all the info is in the twitter thread Does this guy provide a link to where the dose deliveries are published? Is he taking this into account? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56442322 Once again my apologies for being illiterate in twitterspeak in case that info is all in there, already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 16 minutes ago, Orraloon said: Does this guy provide a link to where the dose deliveries are published? Is he taking this into account? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56442322 Once again my apologies for being illiterate in twitterspeak in case that info is all in there, already. He infers it from multiple sources here is the methodology. It's twitter unfortunately, but working the twitter thread is considerably easier than following the deduction process so it will gatekeep if you can judge the deduction Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 i suspect it does though as he takes it from the Scottish government sources Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 Sounds like this "stockpile" he talks about is about 400,000 doses. Those could be used up in about a week. I suppose we could administer those a wee bit faster but I don't see any problems running with a buffer stock of about a week's supply. Some folk would argue that's too much buffer stock and I'm sure others think it's not enough. It's a tricky balancing act, what with the mixing of vaccines types not being approved yet, and the need to hold back enough for 2nd doses in order to ensure that they don't go over the 12 weeks dosing interval. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 Over a million doses in the rough ratio of 44-55-1 AZ-pfizier-moderna rounding up. If we assume 10% of the UK supply from the 22nd April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 Anyway just putting info out there. I'll put as much effort into discussing it as folk to do reading and understanding it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 57 minutes ago, phart said: Over a million doses in the rough ratio of 44-55-1 AZ-pfizier-moderna rounding up. If we assume 10% of the UK supply from the 22nd April. Why would we get 10% of the supply when we only have 8%of the population? So, between Apr 12 and Apr 22 our buffer stock went up from about 400,000 to about 900,000. About two and a half weeks supply, which might partially explain why we have got back up to 50,000 injections per day again in the past week. Sounds like the supply chains are getting a bit more robust again after a wee blip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 24 minutes ago, Orraloon said: Why would we get 10% of the supply when we only have 8%of the population? So, between Apr 12 and Apr 22 our buffer stock went up from about 400,000 to about 900,000. About two and a half weeks supply, which might partially explain why we have got back up to 50,000 injections per day again in the past week. Sounds like the supply chains are getting a bit more robust again after a wee blip. Rounded up cause I coudn't do 8.2% of 1,100,000 in my head Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 For some reason I can link to the twitter threads. From looking simply at the numbers I thought the dropping off of first doses was simply because we lack the capacity to deliver any more. It simply looked like swapping one for the other. We were continuing to deliver a higher proportion of first doses than England into April because we were slower with first doses in Jan so didn't need to ramp these up as soon and England did. I hope I am wrong because we need to be able to deliver both now so really need to have double the capacity to deliver vaccine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, Lamia said: For some reason I can link to the twitter threads. From looking simply at the numbers I thought the dropping off of first doses was simply because we lack the capacity to deliver any more. It simply looked like swapping one for the other. We were continuing to deliver a higher proportion of first doses than England into April because we were slower with first doses in Jan so didn't need to ramp these up as soon and England did. I hope I am wrong because we need to be able to deliver both now so really need to have double the capacity to deliver vaccine. That was the reasoning behind the tweets , the ability to deliver vaccines ceiling hadn't changed in 11 weeks and it wasn't supply that was the limiting factor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 1 minute ago, phart said: That was the reasoning behind the tweets , the ability to deliver vaccines ceiling hadn't changed in 11 weeks and it wasn't supply that was the limiting factor. It seems that way to me which is worrying. NS has been adamant supply is the only limiting factor and we have had months to ramp up delivery capacity. On the basis of % population it doesn't look to bad still but that will only last so long. Wales have done a much better job of balancing one against the other on face value anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 4 hours ago, phart said: Rounded up cause I coudn't do 8.2% of 1,100,000 in my head 11 X 8 = 88. Did you not do your eleven times table at school? Sometimes I despair at the modern education system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 27 minutes ago, Orraloon said: 11 X 8 = 88. Did you not do your eleven times table at school? Sometimes I despair at the modern education system. I did it in the 80's if that's modern to you ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slasher Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 34 minutes ago, phart said: I did it in the 80's if that's modern to you ... Kid in homebase today had to literally finger count the 8 pots of paint I had in my trolley. 🙈 She then took about 3 minutes to count the £6.84 I handed her in smash for a tub of caustic soda. Conclusion.... young ones can only do arithmetic in the context of a fuckin tiktok video these days 🙄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 For anyone thinking the vaccine was going to put an end to the restrictions think again it seems. 60% of the new cases (in Israel I think it is) apparently are from folk who have been vaccinated. https://rumble.com/vftpdz-dr.-harvey-risch-60-of-new-covid-patients-have-been-vaccinated.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, thplinth said: For anyone thinking the vaccine was going to put an end to the restrictions think again it seems. 60% of the new cases (in Israel I think it is) apparently are from folk who have been vaccinated. https://rumble.com/vftpdz-dr.-harvey-risch-60-of-new-covid-patients-have-been-vaccinated.html I would like to see the actual data that believe someone who is clearly in a camp if you do a quick google search and appearing on a Steve Bannon show. He first said that it looked like vaccines cut infection by 50-60% which are figures I have seen and then went on to say 60% of cases had been vaccinated - call me suspicious...... No data is provided in this interview and so I will wait for the actual evidence. Edited April 25, 2021 by Lamia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n567 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 3 hours ago, thplinth said: For anyone thinking the vaccine was going to put an end to the restrictions think again it seems. 60% of the new cases (in Israel I think it is) apparently are from folk who have been vaccinated. https://rumble.com/vftpdz-dr.-harvey-risch-60-of-new-covid-patients-have-been-vaccinated.html The other thing being if for example 80% of the population have been vaccinated then the majority of infections will be in vaccinated people because the vaccine doesn't't completely stop transmission whatever the rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 What will end restrictions is hospital ICU patient levels returning to normal manageable numbers. Having a large percentage of the population vaccinated should achieve that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Toepoke said: What will end restrictions is hospital ICU patient levels returning to normal manageable numbers. Having a large percentage of the population vaccinated should achieve that. We just better hope that the vaccine's also reduce Long Covid because we could be looking at significant issues related to that long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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