General election speculation - Politics - Tartan Army Message Board Jump to content

General election speculation


exile
 Share

Recommended Posts

You'd think they would have learnt their lesson from last year.

I don't think there's much in this other than Brexiteer Tory MPs looking to exert some influence on May, highly likely to backfire on them if the did go through with it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I doubt an election will happen. Even if the Brexiteers are unhappy about a soft Brexit - which looks increasingly so. The DUP probably won't pull the plug and we'll most likely end up with a similar scenario of a slight Tory lead or say a Lab minority - backed up by Plaid, SNP, Libs.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I cant see it either but nothing would surprise me

I cant also see what good it would do.

Would it be "We'll give you a better Brexit than the other lot without stipulating what that would be" ?

Would the Unionist parties in Scotland campaign on No second referendum again ?

What would the SNP strategy be ?

The Unionists are deeply worried

DdqngZSU0AACKCn.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Arlene and the DUP lot always make me laugh, just like wee man syndrome they are constantly banging about being British - yet everyone on 'the mainland' is like eh, OK!

Hilarious when they come here and open their mouth, folk just see them as Irish! 😀

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

I cant see it either but nothing would surprise me

I cant also see what good it would do.

Would it be "We'll give you a better Brexit than the other lot without stipulating what that would be" ?

Would the Unionist parties in Scotland campaign on No second referendum again ?

What would the SNP strategy be ?

The Unionists are deeply worried

DdqngZSU0AACKCn.jpg

Whatever happened to federalism? Where is Kezia Dugdale and the Lib Dems? Is federalism always just a red herring only to be wheeled out as a diversionary tactic or last ditch way of preserving the union? Whatever happened to Devo Max?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I suppose the idea of the election could be part of a threat to the govt that it could be derailed if people don't get what they want. But they can't all get what they want and an election wouldn't fix that. But it could flush out which lot are going to hold the keys to the kingdom and who gets sold down the river.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In the original article that started off this thread, the piece from the unnamed Tory Brexiteers MP is completely mad when you think about it.

He's basically saying he's going to go to his local constituency party and tell them that they need to re-adopt him as a candidate because he's going to bring down the government and force a general election.   I'd love to be a fly on the wall at that meeting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Russian pranksters discuss Putin and Skripal in call with Boris Johnson

One of the duo pretended to be the Armenian PM in 18-minute phone conversation

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/24/russian-pranksters-discuss-putin-and-skripal-in-call-with-boris-johnson?CMP=share_btn_tw

Not listened to the Phone call yet but might have info in it, 18 minutes what a Dunce Boris is.

Also first line of the article is a belter.

" A duo of Russian pranksters with suspected links to the country’s security services managed to get through to the British foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, and held an 18-minute phone conversation with him by pretending to be the Armenian prime minister. "

emphasis mine.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 7 months later...

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/01/three-cabinet-ministers-have-told-their-local-parties-prepare-general

Feb 28th

Three cabinet ministers have told their local parties: prepare for a general election

A further six junior ministers have also asked their local parties to be ready for a contest. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 5 months later...

The polling in England has completely gone insane. I think YouGov had a poll out within the last few days that showed the gap between first and fourth at 3% (22% to 19%), the Greens were fifth on 10%. That YG poll, based on Electoral Calculus figures, would give: Lab 196 seats, Brx 164 seats, Con 149 seats, Lib 67 seats, SNP 53 seats.

Try forming a government out of that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Clyde1998 said:

The polling in England has completely gone insane. I think YouGov had a poll out within the last few days that showed the gap between first and fourth at 3% (22% to 19%), the Greens were fifth on 10%. That YG poll, based on Electoral Calculus figures, would give: Lab 196 seats, Brx 164 seats, Con 149 seats, Lib 67 seats, SNP 53 seats.

Try forming a government out of that.

Yes that looks very tight, bearing in mind a few DUPs to be thrown into the mix.

I read somewhere there was a poll where for the first time in polling history, neither of the top two polling parties was Tories or Labour.  

I see Farage is lining up candidates to fight every seat (not sure if GB or UK). If the election is before Brexit you'd imagine them dong well. but what if after Brexit, what is the party for, then?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The UK graph is amazing.   I wonder how reliable the seat predictions are for a first-past-the-post election.

In Scotland only Con & Lab appear to have lost out to BP despite a number of SNP voters having voted leave.   I still wonder how many of those are genuine Yes+Leave people and how many just voted leave to precipitate something like this.

As James Kelly points out, the UK graph excludes SNP even though they have the 3rd largest number of seats.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Grim Jim said:

The UK graph is amazing.   I wonder how reliable the seat predictions are for a first-past-the-post election.

In Scotland only Con & Lab appear to have lost out to BP despite a number of SNP voters having voted leave.   I still wonder how many of those are genuine Yes+Leave people and how many just voted leave to precipitate something like this.

As James Kelly points out, the UK graph excludes SNP even though they have the 3rd largest number of seats.

 

I think sites like Electoral Calculus are probably pretty good for predictions but people need to remember that they are only predictions.   Their methodology takes the poll data and then translates that to relative swings between parties and then applies that on a constituency by constituency basis.  No doubt they make lots of other assumptions as well around things like turnout and the like.  Of course the thing that can throw them off in FPTP is where you end up having lots of seats with very small majorities.

I'd be very interested in how they are threading the Brexit Party, I can only assume they're considering them as AFC UKIP rather than as a genuinely new party with no track record.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
  • 3 months later...
17 hours ago, Rich NATA said:

Call an election to bring about some clarity?

 

It's got hung parliament written all over it, hasn't it?

 

 

7 hours ago, Orraloon said:

YIp. 

The patience of European politicians must be getting severely tested.

 

No IMO

Despite the protestations just now the Tories will do a deal with Farage 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share



×
×
  • Create New...