The Brexit Thread

[Caledonian Craig]

3 minutes ago, exile said:

I agree the May deal looks weak and am not trying to defend it as a policy gong forward but just answering the original question. (I need to read up more about what's in it, as on Thursday May seemed to be claiming it would stop free movement but that doesn't square with the claim it won't stop immigration.)

I think your take on the three options is quite possible or even most likely, but it hinges on exactly what's in option 1: if you mean a no deal Brexit, or some (other) deal, in which case that deal would need to be specific. It's probably impossible to say what another 'possible' deal would be that would be acceptable to May and the cabinet and the EU, so that's a bit hypothetical. 

If, for the sake of argument, Option 1 means "no deal" (since that is definitely 'available') then things would shift a bit from Option 1 to 2 or 3 but whether that would be enough to keep May's deal at the bottom, I couldn't say.  

Well Option 1 would be to left to sign their own trade deals around the globe exiting all current deals with the EU. Now in doing that I do not pretend to know how that would impact on other issues such as security and co-operation on crime investigations across Europe etc.

[exile]

27 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Is there any data to back this up?

Well that's a fair question, which could be looked into, but it's all bit hypothetical, and some may never be convinced by the 'data'.    

But the point is really about the more specific the scenario, the less likely in general people would agree to all of it. Like saying, do you want Scotland to be an independent republic? - that is likely to get less votes than independent country, just because it would likely put off some royalists who otherwise would have voted yes (and assuming there are not too many mildly unionist republicans who would go the other way).

The same logic would apply if the Leave question had had a May-type deal as the 'more specific' option on the ballot. In that case, again I think fewer would have voted for it, and that also could have been enough to swing back to Remain.

Of course this is not about who won or should have won, or whether the deal is good or not, it's about whether the deal is mandated by the ballot result. Leave won and the deal is what the British government and EU have agreed as the outcome. if that deal is a fiasco that's the Tory Govt to blame, that's independent of the referendum.   

Didn't some people (including many Leavers) want to stop there even being a parliamentary vote on this? If May had got her way then, her deal would already be 'on' and there would be nothing any of us could do about it.    

                         

[exile]

27 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Well Option 1 would be to left to sign their own trade deals around the globe exiting all current deals with the EU. Now in doing that I do not pretend to know how that would impact on other issues such as security and co-operation on crime investigations across Europe etc.

OK, I'm ready to accept Option 1 would beat 2,  even in the spirit of no one knowing exactly what was in option 1 or its consequences ☺️

[ParisInAKilt]

9 minutes ago, exile said:

Well that's a fair question, which could be looked into, but it's all bit hypothetical, and some may never be convinced by the 'data'.    

But the point is really about the more specific the scenario, the less likely in general people would agree to all of it. Like saying, do you want Scotland to be an independent republic? - that is likely to get less votes than independent country, just because it would likely put off some royalists who otherwise would have voted yes (and assuming there are not too many mildly unionist republicans who would go the other way).

The same logic would apply if the Leave question had had a May-type deal as the 'more specific' option on the ballot. In that case, again I think fewer would have voted for it, and that also could have been enough to swing back to Remain.

Of course this is not about who won or should have won, or whether the deal is good or not, it's about whether the deal is mandated by the ballot result. Leave won and the deal is what the British government and EU have agreed as the outcome. if that deal is a fiasco that's the Tory Govt to blame, that's independent of the referendum.   

Didn't some people (including many Leavers) want to stop there even being a parliamentary vote on this? If May had got her way then, her deal would already be 'on' and there would be nothing any of us could do about it.    

                         

For me the question was fairly black and white 

“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

Granted I didn’t follow the mainstream coverage closely but I can’t recall much debate around customs unions etc until after the vote. 

I don’t think it would be unreasonable to suggest a leave vote meant just that, leaving the EU, no customs union etc etc. 

More so that ever the mask of the EU has slipped, an authoritarian state, one that sadly the UK political parties overwhelmingly want to be a part of. 

[aaid]

3 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

For me the question was fairly black and white 

“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

Granted I didn’t follow the mainstream coverage closely but I can’t recall much debate around customs unions etc until after the vote. 

I don’t think it would be unreasonable to suggest a leave vote meant just that, leaving the EU, no customs union etc etc. 

More so that ever the mask of the EU has slipped, an authoritarian state, one that sadly the UK political parties overwhelmingly want to be a part of. 

From what I recall any mention of the SM/CU during the referendum campaign was Project Fear Remainers like George Osbourne saying we'd be forced to leave them and Leavers like Farage and Dan Hannan saying "no-ones talking about leaving the SM/CU". 

TBH, I don't think there's any point in going back to what either side said during the referendum as both sides told a load of porkies.  Much better to focus on what we know now.

Its worth pointing out that if we crash out on March 29th, not only do we not have a deal with the EU, we don't have trade deals with anyone, anywhere.  We only have trade deals with other countries as an EU member.

[Clyde1998]

4 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

For me the question was fairly black and white 

“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

Granted I didn’t follow the mainstream coverage closely but I can’t recall much debate around customs unions etc until after the vote. 

I don’t think it would be unreasonable to suggest a leave vote meant just that, leaving the EU, no customs union etc etc. 

More so that ever the mask of the EU has slipped, an authoritarian state, one that sadly the UK political parties overwhelmingly want to be a part of. 

I also don't think anyone mentioned the customs union at all prior to the vote - although, I also didn't pay much attention to the mainstream coverage as it was effectively a Conservative civil war that I couldn't give a fuck about. The only real thing that I remember being mentioned was not paying EU membership fees and the automatic right for EU citizens to live and work in the UK - both of which appear to continue in the deal.

The EU were always going to have the upper hand in negotiations, particularly given the narrowness of the result and the division between what different parts of the UK wanted. The big issue is that the deal that is before us appears to be considerably worse than what we have now and even a large amount of leave voters appear to think that.

I feel that a consensus could've been achieved by attempting to keep the UK in the Single Market and Customs Union, while leaving the EU institutions - but the UK Government didn't want to go down that route 'as it's not in the spirit of Brexit'.

[ParisInAKilt]

19 minutes ago, aaid said:

From what I recall any mention of the SM/CU during the referendum campaign was Project Fear Remainers like George Osbourne saying we'd be forced to leave them and Leavers like Farage and Dan Hannan saying "no-ones talking about leaving the SM/CU". 

TBH, I don't think there's any point in going back to what either side said during the referendum as both sides told a load of porkies.  Much better to focus on what we know now.

Its worth pointing out that if we crash out on March 29th, not only do we not have a deal with the EU, we don't have trade deals with anyone, anywhere.  We only have trade deals with other countries as an EU member.

Agreed. 

From the other side of the world it was a nasty poorly debated referendum. 

[ParisInAKilt]

15 minutes ago, Clyde1998 said:

I also don't think anyone mentioned the customs union at all prior to the vote - although, I also didn't pay much attention to the mainstream coverage as it was effectively a Conservative civil war that I couldn't give a fuck about. The only real thing that I remember being mentioned was not paying EU membership fees and the automatic right for EU citizens to live and work in the UK - both of which appear to continue in the deal.

The EU were always going to have the upper hand in negotiations, particularly given the narrowness of the result and the division between what different parts of the UK wanted. The big issue is that the deal that is before us appears to be considerably worse than what we have now and even a large amount of leave voters appear to think that.

I feel that a consensus could've been achieved by attempting to keep the UK in the Single Market and Customs Union, while leaving the EU institutions - but the UK Government didn't want to go down that route 'as it's not in the spirit of Brexit'.

It’s also not in the EU’s best interests to make this process straight forward. 

I agree about the current deal, from what I’ve read it’s put the UK in a worst position prior to the vote and not what anyone actually voted for. 

The cynic in me suspects this has been planned since the vote went the wrong way. 

[Caledonian Craig]

1 minute ago, ParisInAKilt said:

It’s also not in the EU’s best interests to make this process straight forward. 

I agree about the current deal, from what I’ve read it’s put the UK in a worst position prior to the vote and not what anyone actually voted for. 

The cynic in me suspects this has been planned since the vote went the wrong way. 

I don't think I'd ever hear myself saying this but here goes.....

Nigel Farage was on BBC News the other day and he hit the nail on the head about the deal May has proposed. She was a Remainer and never wanted to leave the EU and this deal bears that out, It is not an exit from the EU that is clear cut and leaves the UK still connected in many ways to the EU. In short she cut a deal that best suits what she wanted from the deal from her point of view.

[ParisInAKilt]

1 minute ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I don't think I'd ever hear myself saying this but here goes.....

Nigel Farage was on BBC News the other day and he hit the nail on the head about the deal May has proposed. She was a Remainer and never wanted to leave the EU and this deal bears that out, It is not an exit from the EU that is clear cut and leaves the UK still connected in many ways to the EU. In short she cut a deal that best suits what she wanted from the deal from her point of view.

Agreed.

Possibly why she got the job in the first place. 

However I do find the idea that this is May’s “plan” as the media etc frame it to be incredibly naive. This is a major decision and financially will affect a lot of wealthy and important people, no way is this something any politician or even political party could be deciding without external inflence. 

[Eisegerwind]

"Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald has ruled out any possibility of her party's seven MPs taking their seats in the House of Commons to vote for Theresa May's Brexit withdrawal deal.

However, Ms McDonald says her party will not "ride in on a white charger" to save the day. "

 

Made me laugh.

[Ally Bongo]

Nadine Dorres is the epitome of thick as shit

 

[Orraloon]

1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said:

Nadine Dorres is the epitome of thick as shit

 

 brilliant. 

[exile]

Spain demands Gibraltar veto in Brexit deal

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46267684

[Ally Bongo]

 

 

Laura Kuenssberg‏Verified account @bbclaurak

 

Boris Johnson is going to speak at the DUP conference this weekend - wonder why...

[mariokempes56]

Boris and Ruth are from the same school of "class".

[exile]

As seen by the Express

Brexit blow: Court hands Remainers 11th hour lifeline to scupper Brexit and stay in EU

REMAINERS were handed an 11th hour lifeline today as the Supreme Court dismissed a bid by the Brexit secretary to derail a European court hearing into whether article 50 – which triggered the UK’s departure from the EU – could be reversed.

 

Or if you prefer the National

UK Government fail to block Scots’ court case on revoking Brexit

THERESA May’s Government has suffered a humiliating defeat in their attempts to derail a Scottish court case seeking to determine whether the UK can unilaterally reverse Brexit.

In a development that will infuriate Brexiteers, the European Court of Justice (ECJ), which they detest, could now find against the UK Government which would mean that Scotland’s top court could ultimately decide whether or not Article 50, the process for leaving the EU, could be reversed.

 

Edited November 21, 2018 by exile

[Ally Bongo]

Peston

[Orraloon]

I think it will get voted through based on Labour abstentions. Some Labour MPs might even vote with the Government. 

This is a very tricky situation for the SNP but I think they have to stand firm and vote against it. I hope Salmond is heavily involved in the SNP decision making process.

 

[mariokempes56]

26 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I think it will get voted through based on Labour abstentions. Some Labour MPs might even vote with the Government. 

This is a very tricky situation for the SNP but I think they have to stand firm and vote against it. I hope Salmond is heavily involved in the SNP decision making process.

 

I said elsewhere a week ago that May could well see this through (against all the odds at that time). She is just so bloody-minded and the opposition so utterly fragmented that you never know.

 

Agreed the SNP are in an impossible position.

[Alibi]

Essential that the SNP do not vote for the brexit proposal.  It is a bad deal, and the fact that turning it down might lead to a no deal brexit is irrelevant.  There are other potions, the sensible one of which is to cancel brexit altogether.  Ironically that could impede indy, but accepting a clearly bad deal is just plain daft.

[aaid]

16 minutes ago, mariokempes56 said:

I said elsewhere a week ago that May could well see this through (against all the odds at that time). She is just so bloody-minded and the opposition so utterly fragmented that you never know.

 

Agreed the SNP are in an impossible position.

A lot of brinksmanship going on here on all sides - with the exception of Labour who still can't seem to work out what they want to do.

[kumnio]

Looks like the fisherman have been screwed over. Absolutely fantastic in my opinion. 

[Ally Bongo]

1 hour ago, kumnio said:

Looks like the fisherman have been screwed over. Absolutely fantastic in my opinion. 

Agreed 

Bertie Armstrong lying his tits off to save face though  

[aaid]

Two of his red lines crossed and Fluffy still won't resign.