Clyde1998 Posted September 13, 2014 Author Share Posted September 13, 2014 Margin of error with 700 people is about 3.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Opinium Research ?@OpiniumResearch ยท 19 secsOpinium/Observer #indyref poll: YES 47%, NO 53% http://bit.ly/1m2eCx3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Just to beat Clyde to it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 13, 2014 Author Share Posted September 13, 2014 Just to beat Clyde to it Interestingly, there link doesn't work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donaldo87 Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 I wonder if ICM stopped at 700 responses so they could dismiss the results Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Think their website has crashed! Any idea what (and when!) the last poll from Opinium was? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ex-Whitfield Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 I'm all polled out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 13, 2014 Author Share Posted September 13, 2014 Think their website has crashed! Any idea what (and when!) the last poll from Opinium was? Never. This is their first one, oddly... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 13, 2014 Author Share Posted September 13, 2014 I'm all polled out Panelbase one to come tonight... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddardStark Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Lets just accept its 50/50. Too close to call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damo Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Thinks it's safe to say that in previous elections and in this referndum polling companies really struggle with Scotland. The amount of newly registered voters must throw their numbers haywire Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kumnio Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Lets just accept its 50/50. Too close to call. Genuine question, are you nervous yet? I recall you predicting a landslide No victory sometime back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewelk Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 The amount of newly registered voters must throw their numbers haywire It doesn't. It makes their numbers irrelevant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddardStark Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Genuine question, are you nervous yet? I recall you predicting a landslide No victory sometime back eh most where predicting a significant margin. I am very nervous . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 13, 2014 Author Share Posted September 13, 2014 My poll of polls (awaiting ICM conduction dates and Panelbase poll): Yes - 48.7% No - 52.3% "Too Close To Call". Opinium data: http://news.opinium.co.uk/sites/news.opinium.co.uk/files/observer_scotland_final.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mariokempes56 Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 These polls have usually been a sample of 1000, but still big enough to be of relevance. Wonder how this will be reported on the State organs. Well my organ has just exploded.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tartandon Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 (edited) My poll of polls (awaiting ICM conduction dates and Panelbase poll): Yes - 48.7% No - 52.3% "Too Close To Call". Opinium data: http://news.opinium.co.uk/sites/news.opinium.co.uk/files/observer_scotland_final.pdf that's 101%. Is it 48.7 - 51.3 or 47.7 - 52.3 ? When we see the raw data in the polls, why do they place such significance on the prior elections? Surely they should realise that the referendum is completely different. It's not about the next 5 years, but rather about the future of the country as an independent nation. Also, what about the people who are only registering for the first time? The more I look at these, the only consistent thing is 65+ and females voting for No. The rest has massive variances between polls, making me think that apart from females and 65+, the rest is a complete and utter nonsense (especially 16-24). Edited September 13, 2014 by tartandon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Scottish Labour are now lying about canvassing results It's like Hitler in the bunker in 1945 Area where i stay was 66% Yes 3 weeks ago yet Monica Lennon has tweeted that fud Greatrex saying it was a No area lol There has been zero No canvassers in the last 3 weeks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stapes Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Scottish Labour are now lying about canvassing results It's like Hitler in the bunker in 1945 Area where i stay was 66% Yes 3 weeks ago yet Monica Lennon has tweeted that fud Greatrex saying it was a No area lol There has been zero No canvassers in the last 3 weeks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 13, 2014 Author Share Posted September 13, 2014 that's 101%. Is it 48.7 - 51.3 or 47.7 - 52.3 ? When we see the raw data in the polls, why do they place such significance on the prior elections? Surely they should realise that the referendum is completely different. It's not about the next 5 years, but rather about the future of the country as an independent nation. Also, what about the people who are only registering for the first time? The more I look at these, the only consistent thing is 65+ and females voting for No. The rest has massive variances between polls, making me think that apart from females and 65+, the rest is a complete and utter nonsense (especially 16-24). Sorry. It was 48.7% yes; 51.3% no. I'll update it after I see the Panelbase data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Icm Internet poll with smaller sample puts yes on 54%, no 46% exc dn http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/icm-put-yes-ahead-perhaps/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 13, 2014 Author Share Posted September 13, 2014 Opinium poll doesn't include 16-18 year olds... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broath Boy Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 We know it is all lies, c'mon lads/lasses stay focused. They threw some shit at us this week, NEXT WEEK ITS WORSE, stay strong we can seriously do this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Not sure how many times I keep reading it as "Opium" FFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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