Holyrood predictions

[hampden_loon2878]

whats everyone predictions for the up coming elections? I dont think anyone will argue thats its almost certain to be a snp government elected but will it be with a majority ? Do you think that the torys may sneak into opposition?

personally i dont think the snp will win a out right majority,, i also think the torys will do better than expected.I get the impression that Banff and buchan (my constituency )will be a lot closer that expected as there seems to a bit of dissolution being expressed  amongst typical snp supporters,,, banff and buchan will remain snp but with a lower vote   

[Stapes]

With about a month to go in Dalkeith (ex-miner central) the SNP were out as usual. No Labour. Most interesting of all though was the appearance of a Tory stall, complete with butcher's apron. In all my years campaigning this is the first time I've seen them out in Dalkeith. They clearly think they are in with a chance.

Think the SNP will win an increased majority. Don't think the Tories will overtake Labour, but will close the gap. Think the Libs will gain unfortunately. The Greens might gain a couple at most.

Edited April 4, 2016 by Stapes

[Orraloon]

I think the SNP will increase the number of constituency seats. But the way the electoral system works, probably means that for almost every extra constituency seat they pick up, they will lose one of their regional list seats. So, I think it will be difficult for the SNP to repeat their outright majority of 2011. The system was specifically designed so that it wouldn't happen. 

For the SNP it's all about persuading as many of their voters as possible to give them their regional vote as well as their constituency vote. Whether the SNP get an overall majority or not will depend on whether they can get enough of the 2nd regional list votes. If too many SNP voters give their 2nd vote to the Greens, that will most likely result in more Labour and Tories winning list seats.

If the SNP repeat their general election 50% share of the vote, in both constituency and regional list, then they will probably just about do it. But, I'm not sure that will happen.

[adamntg]

Nah, that's baws.  The SNP's constituency vote will be so high that it will very difficult for them to win many seats from the regional list.  I'll be using my second vote for the Green Party (and they'd get my first as well if they stood FPTP candidates) and hopefully we'll see a progressive Scotland with a wide pro-Independence majority.  

[Orraloon]

16 minutes ago, adamntg said:

Nah, that's baws.  The SNP's constituency vote will be so high that it will very difficult for them to win many seats from the regional list.  I'll be using my second vote for the Green Party (and they'd get my first as well if they stood FPTP candidates) and hopefully we'll see a progressive Scotland with a wide pro-Independence majority.  

It depends where you are. In most regions there is more chance of the SNP getting a list seat than the Greens.

But if you agree with the Green's policies then vote Green. 

[Toepoke]

What's the story with RISE?  I'd thought they were going to be a genuine alternative for the list vote but I've heard virtually nothing from them...

 

[realfifer]

SNP both votes for me. Almost impossible for a tactical second vote to be effective. If you want an SNP government, then vote for it, simple as....

[Parklife]

8 hours ago, adamntg said:

Nah, that's baws.  The SNP's constituency vote will be so high that it will very difficult for them to win many seats from the regional list.  I'll be using my second vote for the Green Party (and they'd get my first as well if they stood FPTP candidates) and hopefully we'll see a progressive Scotland with a wide pro-Independence majority.  

Yup, that's what i'll be doing too if i don't have a green candidate to vote for. 

[iainmac1]

SNP will win it's the majority that is the only uncertain thing. Labour will also be 2nd comfortably I reckon.

I had been thinking. What if there was a separate independence party who only stood on the list vote. One that was very closely aligned to the SNP and 'shared' many if not all policies. One where the SNP could recommend that their voters vote for with the SNP only standing in constituencies. Would this be possible. To split the party in 2 for the purposes of wining a majority.

[Orraloon]

8 hours ago, Toepoke said:

What's the story with RISE?  I'd thought they were going to be a genuine alternative for the list vote but I've heard virtually nothing from them...

 

The system we use doesn't help the small parties to get a foot on the ladder. They need to get about 5-6% of the regional vote to have a chance of getting one seat. Jean Urquhart is probably the only one with a slight chance due to her SNP history.

[Scunnered]

9 hours ago, Toepoke said:

What's the story with RISE?  I'd thought they were going to be a genuine alternative for the list vote but I've heard virtually nothing from them...

 

They're doing their bits and pieces but like most small parties they don't get media attention, which is probably for the best to be honest .  The SNP got them a bit of attention at the weekend by mocking them for campaigning for a living wage rather than chapping doors. 

[Auld_Reekie]

Expect the SNP to return roughly the same number of MSPs as they have currently. I think there's an outside chance they'll lose their majority which would be no bad thing IMO. My constituency vote is definitely SNP but I'll be voting Green on the list.

[aaid]

27 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

The system we use doesn't help the small parties to get a foot on the ladder. They need to get about 5-6% of the regional vote to have a chance of getting one seat. J

 

I don't think that's really true.  In 2003 the Greens had 7 seats and SSP 6 alongside Margo and John Swinburne for the Coffin Dodgers Party.

The system hasn't changed since then, what has changed - in 2007 and 2011 - is that list vote of the smaller parties fell.  In 2003 the Greens polled 6.9% nationally.  This fell to 4% in 2007 and grew only slightly to 4.9% in 2011.  SSP obviously imploded post Cupidsgate.

TBH, you have to draw the line somewhere and 5% is just about right.  In Germany you have to get a minimum of 5% to get a seat - even if the calculations worked out that on 4.99% you would be due a seat you wouldn't get one.

Cat Boyd might have an outside chance in Glasgow of getting in as she is relatively high profile, a lot will depend on whether Sheridan carries much of a personal vote.

[Orraloon]

51 minutes ago, aaid said:

 

I don't think that's really true.  In 2003 the Greens had 7 seats and SSP 6 alongside Margo and John Swinburne for the Coffin Dodgers Party.

The system hasn't changed since then, what has changed - in 2007 and 2011 - is that list vote of the smaller parties fell.  In 2003 the Greens polled 6.9% nationally.  This fell to 4% in 2007 and grew only slightly to 4.9% in 2011.  SSP obviously imploded post Cupidsgate.

TBH, you have to draw the line somewhere and 5% is just about right.  In Germany you have to get a minimum of 5% to get a seat - even if the calculations worked out that on 4.99% you would be due a seat you wouldn't get one.

Cat Boyd might have an outside chance in Glasgow of getting in as she is relatively high profile, a lot will depend on whether Sheridan carries much of a personal vote.

Aye, that's true but I think the bigger parties, especially labour, have learnt how important the list vote is. So, they are campaigning harder for the list votes making it tougher for the smaller parties.

 

[littleboyblue]

1 hour ago, iainmac1 said:

SNP will win it's the majority that is the only uncertain thing. Labour will also be 2nd comfortably I reckon.

I had been thinking. What if there was a separate independence party who only stood on the list vote. One that was very closely aligned to the SNP and 'shared' many if not all policies. One where the SNP could recommend that their voters vote for with the SNP only standing in constituencies. Would this be possible. To split the party in 2 for the purposes of wining a majority.

Yip, thought the same in the past too.  Just make it blatant, a single policy of supporting the SNP in Parliament.

Said party could take circa half the 56 list MSPs due to it having no constituency MSPs and probably be the opposition!

If the SNP took 90% of the constituencies there would be near on 90 pro indy MSPs excluding Greens, Independents, RISE etc. in a parliament of 129.  Maybe over 100 in total.

It might seem a bit grubby but politics is never fair as we know.

[jailender]

Just what we need- a one party state. I thought the whole idea of PR was that this couldn't happen.

[littleboyblue]

I very much support PR, jailender and I should have perhaps said I don't particularly want to see that scenario I described come about.  I suppose I was just highlighting what is possible, although as I hinted at it wouldn't feel right.

I do want a pro-indy majority though and if that comes exclusively with SNP MSPs so be it.  I'm happy for other voices to make up that majority too.

[hampden_loon2878]

One thing is for sure the SNP have reached the high water mark and will slowly lose a bit of support,,, they will still be the biggest party in scotland but after this election i see theur vote slipping,,, personally it will be nice when the holyrood and eu referendum to pass,, Its been nonstop politics for a while 

Edited April 5, 2016 by hampden_loon2878

[Toepoke]

2 hours ago, iainmac1 said:

What if there was a separate independence party who only stood on the list vote. One that was very closely aligned to the SNP and 'shared' many if not all policies.

Is that not the Greens?

 

[aaid]

4 hours ago, iainmac1 said:

SNP will win it's the majority that is the only uncertain thing. Labour will also be 2nd comfortably I reckon.

I had been thinking. What if there was a separate independence party who only stood on the list vote. One that was very closely aligned to the SNP and 'shared' many if not all policies. One where the SNP could recommend that their voters vote for with the SNP only standing in constituencies. Would this be possible. To split the party in 2 for the purposes of wining a majority.

That would be illegal.  "Labour" are actually two parties, the larger Labour Party and the smaller Co-operative party but are considered as a single party under electoral law to avoid abuses such as you are suggesting.  

Kezia Dugdale and Johann Lamont are both members of the Co-operative party.  You can be a member of both so they may also be members of the Labour Party.  

Edited April 5, 2016 by aaid

[Auld_Reekie]

1 hour ago, Toepoke said:

Is that not the Greens?

 

I dont think theres that much overlap to be honest and to be honest, the Green movement suffers generally from a lack of credibility (fairly or unfairly) which means they're constantly struggling to win real power. And Harvie should be achieving more than he has (and I say that as a big fan of his). I hope they'll make some progress in this election and wield more influence in the next parliament but Im not convinced they will.

If the Greens fall short this election, I would prefer to see a new party position itself between the SNP and the Greens. Somewhere for the Andy Wightman's and Lesley Riddoch's of the world. A pro-independence party to work with the SNP toward independence but act as a counter to their record and lack of ambition. Try and attract a big Labour name as well.

My support of the SNP is waning and Im tempted by the Greens, but Im concerned the Greens will be toothless. I want the SNP to deliver independence but I feel they need a strong challenge to help continue to push boundaries.

[aaid]

15 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

I dont think theres that much overlap to be honest and to be honest, the Green movement suffers generally from a lack of credibility (fairly or unfairly) which means they're constantly struggling to win real power. And Harvie should be achieving more than he has (and I say that as a big fan of his). I hope they'll make some progress in this election and wield more influence in the next parliament but Im not convinced they will.

If the Greens fall short this election, I would prefer to see a new party position itself between the SNP and the Greens. Somewhere for the Andy Wightman's and Lesley Riddoch's of the world. A pro-independence party to work with the SNP toward independence but act as a counter to their record and lack of ambition. Try and attract a big Labour name as well.

My support of the SNP is waning and Im tempted by the Greens, but Im concerned the Greens will be toothless. I want the SNP to deliver independence but I feel they need a strong challenge to help continue to push boundaries.

Based on your user name I take it you are in the Lothians region?

if you agree with the Greens policies or at least think they are the closest fit to what you believe then vote Green.  With respect it doesn't sound like you are entirely convinced.

Dont vote Green though based on trying to game the system and hope to get an alternative Indy MSP elected as there is at least as much, if not more, chance of allowing an additional Tory, Labour, Lib Dem or even UKIP MSP in the back door.

Lothians is particularly interesting as you have the 20000 or so list votes that Margo got in 2011 "up for grabs". Intuitively you would see those split across the Pro Indy parties; SNP, Greens and RISE. 

If you split Margo's 2011 votes 50/50 between the Greens and SNP then the Lib Dems would have picked up the last list seat.  If all those votes had gone to the SNP they would have got the last list seat. 

[Orraloon]

20 minutes ago, aaid said:

Based on your user name I take it you are in the Lothians region?

 

I don't think he is in Lothians. I think we might have been through this before?

Sounds like he wants to vote Green but doesn't want to "waste his vote"? It's a problem for all small parties but some folk need to "waste there votes" for a while before they eventually start to count. The SNP were in the same position not that long ago. 

[phart]

I'm voting Green List and i'll have a look at the candidates for the Constituency to see if i'll vote.

[Orraloon]

I am guessing 65 SNP, 32 Lab, 25 Tory 4 Lib Dem, 3 Green,