How The Referendum Was Won

[kumnio]

The day after the vote, I was distraught. I was going to give up, but now I'm certain that we will get it next time. It's def coming,I'm sure if that.

[FuNsTeR]

The day after the vote, I was distraught. I was going to give up, but now I'm certain that we will get it next time. It's def coming,I'm sure if that.

I reckon 2017/18 the next referendum ... and I am like deecie my entire close family all voted no except ... 4 out of the 9 no voters in my work say they would vote Yes now reality has dawned on them

[daviebee]

My understanding of this conspiracy is that it predicated on the following facts.

1. There were an unusually large number of postal vote applications.

2. The Postal vote turnout out was unusually high.

3. The final result didn't tally with what Yes activists were seeing from canvass returns.

This has then been cooked up to suggest that MI5 were going around stuffing post boxes around Scotland with fake postal votes in the final few days of the campaign having worked out who had already voted.

This falls down on so many levels but the most obvious one is this. There were 800,000 postal votes sent out, of these 737,000 were returned and of those 15,000 were spoiled. Given that No polled around 400,000 more votes than Yes.

To affect the result, this would have meant that the *real* postal vote turnout would have to have been around 50% which doesn't bear comparison to the overall turnout and engagement.

The - impressively high - postal vote turnout of 92% doesn't look so unbelievable when compared to the overall turnout of 85%.

I don't think that a breakdown of postal votes by Yes/No has been provided, however, everyone at the counts has said that they were in favour of No by a large margin. A much more realistic explanation of this is that there is a definite correlation of general demographic of people who would use a postal vote and those who voted No - the elderly, non-urban, wealthier.

This is just a big exercise in cognitive dissonance and ignores the simple truth that Yes lost because the arguments were not strong enough in key areas, most importantly currency and economy.

Much more productive to focus on coming up with stronger arguments on these than on conspiracy theories.

Thing is, the final result didn't tie in with what the No side were seeing either.

I'm not a great one for conspiracy theories and maybe it just hurts too much to think we were too scared to stand on our own feet, but I reckon we were royally fked over. Why no exit polls? If currency was the major issue as others are saying then how come Yes were ahead on their own polling, BTs polling and Labour's polling and yet there was this drastic turnaround that they seemed to know about even by the time the polls closed?

I heard AS had to change his speech at the last minute as he'd been so confident of victory. I said "heard" as my telly wasn't on for at least 3 weeks after the 18th and I've still never visited an MSM site since.

In my own circle I saw so many folk make the transition from venomous Salmond-haters to confirmed Yes voters that I find it hard to believe that most would prefer to be ruled by some public school Tory wnkers.

[tartandon]

I'll never forget that night. I flew out on holiday the following day, a pre planned celebration or get the feck out of the country and calling my old man before leaving, who was in tears saying he'll never see independence was the most emotional i think I've ever been.

Woosh. You just transported me back to the day after the vote. And now I'm sitting greeting again.

[perthTam]

Out of my close circle of pals, it was something like 9-2 to Yes. One of those No voters is now a "Yes in the next one". So although there isn't a referendum soon, it's encouraging to know.

I'm realy encouraged by the engagement still with many friends who had no interest up to the referendum. I don't know if it's where they live, but hearing/seeing lots of things for us to be encouraged about regards another ref. Still lots of Yes stickers up, and see a few "I'm still Yes" things going.

Now will be interesting to see what the SNP do for May. I think even with the promise of another referendum, the SNP would win enough votes.

I like Rossy's post. I was in that part of Fife yesterday and the contrast from Aberdour, Inverkeithing, Dalgety Bay to Glenrothes and Kirkcaldy is quite something!

This is how the next referendum will be won. By talking to folks now and for however long it takes till the next referendum. The next referendum should already be won before it is officially called. Hopefully. C'mon Scotland!

[Dave78]

I agree with others, this was lost purely because of the yes campaign's handling of the currency issue. It was completely half arsed and allowed the already biased media and opponents of the yes vote, mostly self serving politicians or self loathing unionists to jump all over it. We should've had the courage of our convictions and muted a Scottish currency. It made financial sense.

I don't see how the currency issue could have been handled better. Yes, i favour a separate Scottish pound, but how were the Yes campaign supposed to sell that to the electorate? That option has even more uncertainty about it than a currency union.

And look at how the Greeks have backed away from a return to the drachma.

Getting across the winning line is all about reducing the fear factor IMO.

how come Yes were ahead on their own polling, BTs polling and Labour's polling

Was that the week Yougov released their poll with Yes in front? We all know what happened after that.

[aaid]

If currency was the major issue as others are saying then how come Yes were ahead on their own polling, BTs polling and Labour's polling.

Do you have a source for that?

I don't see how the currency issue could have been handled better. Yes, i favour a separate Scottish pound, but how were the Yes campaign supposed to sell that to the electorate? That option has even more uncertainty about it than a currency union.

And look at how the Greeks have backed away from a return to the drachma.

Getting across the winning line is all about reducing the fear factor IMO.

Was that the week Yougov released their poll with Yes in front? We all know what happened after that.

This, except that Scotland and rUK is nowhere near the same as Greece and the Eurozone.

If there is one thing that convinces me that a fix was in it was the reaction to that poll that caused the Unionist parties to move into a position that less than a year later is unravelling before our eyes.

The whole issue over currency was, is - for me - the only weakness of Independence. Given the bulk of Scotland's trade is with rUK then anything other than a single currency within a single market cannot be of a benefit for numerous reasons. It's therefore no surprise that BT chose this as their battleground.

Now there are negatives to a single currency, most notably that you give up sovereignty over monetary policy.

My personal view was that a currency union would only be a medium term arrangement until such time as the two economies diverged to an extent it no longer made sense, and that could be in the tens of years. I also believe that in the event of a Yes vote, George Osborne would have announced on 19 September that there would be a currency arrangement as it is the position that makes most sense for all parties.

Personally, I don't think that Currency is an argument that can be won, however as I said at the time,if having your own currency is such a big problem then there would only be one currency in the world.

IMHO, Yes tried to dance around this too much and maybe should have been a bit more honest, conceded the point and looked to accentuate the other positive arguments and try and move the question on to other arguments.

[flynnyboy]

I don't see how the currency issue could have been handled better. Yes, i favour a separate Scottish pound, but how were the Yes campaign supposed to sell that to the electorate? That option has even more uncertainty about it than a currency union.

And look at how the Greeks have backed away from a return to the drachma.

Getting across the winning line is all about reducing the fear factor IMO.

Was that the week Yougov released their poll with Yes in front? We all know what happened after that.

I agree mate, totally. But it was a strategic decision, due to the fear factor, to go with keeping the pound. We had several years to show the benefit of a strong independent currency like some other similar sized nations. We could've broken that fear factor down over that time. The fact was we were left looking like we were scrambling about after the rUK "dismissed" the currency sharing. It vastly diminished our argument and by that point it was too late to ease the fears.

A strategic error. A major strategic error that cost us. But despite that we were still very close. Another few years of Scotland having absolutely no say in her destiny and being ruled by a majority Tory government backed up by a complicit by inactivity labour opposition and we will be within touching distance.

Tartandon, sorry man. Didn't mean to evoke bad memories. Had a wee tear in my eye when I posted that. Hopefully the next time we have tears in our eyes whilst thinking of that occasion will be through elation of witnessing our independence with our loved ones

[ParisInAKilt]

2019 referendum will have excellent circumstances to win. A Tory majority B potentially weak Labour Party in Scotland and UK C SNP popular.

Currency. Plan B needs to be made perfectly clear and spoke about because the UK government will adopt the same stance to a currency union, whatever might be in everyone's best interests.

EU. Promise a referendum in first term of government.

Target NO voters, whatever their income and social class. Make the case that everyone in Scotland can have a better life with independence.

[Dave78]

We had several years to show the benefit of a strong independent currency like some other similar sized nations. We could've broken that fear factor down over that time.

Maybe, aye. With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, i'd like to have seen us try.

2019 referendum will have excellent circumstances to win. A Tory majority B potentially weak Labour Party in Scotland and UK C SNP popular.

Currency. Plan B needs to be made perfectly clear and spoke about because the UK government will adopt the same stance to a currency union, whatever might be in everyone's best interests.

EU. Promise a referendum in first term of government.

Target NO voters, whatever their income and social class. Make the case that everyone in Scotland can have a better life with independence.

Yep... we know the weapons that the No side will use to fight the next one. We'll be better prepared surely.

The pro-indy side in Quebec increased their vote by 9% in their second referendum. I'd take that

[Toepoke]

The pro-indy side in Quebec increased their vote by 9% in their second referendum. I'd take that

Took them 15 years though....

[Dave78]

Took them 15 years though....

Aye. I don't see indyref2 happening for another couple of parliaments yet though. The polls (and demographics) have to be right first.

[Toepoke]

Yes, the Quebecois made the mistake of calling the second referendum from a losing position...

[Toepoke]

Salmond's comments today seem to have given BBC News a stauner...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33668002

[Ally Bongo]

GAPonsonby ‏@GAPonsonby 27m27 minutes ago

Watch as Salmond's "I think" becomes "will" on #indyref2 inevitability. Media is already manipulating his words to make his views sound new.

[scotlad]

I agree mate, totally. But it was a strategic decision, due to the fear factor, to go with keeping the pound. We had several years to show the benefit of a strong independent currency like some other similar sized nations. We could've broken that fear factor down over that time. The fact was we were left looking like we were scrambling about after the rUK "dismissed" the currency sharing. It vastly diminished our argument and by that point it was too late to ease the fears.

A strategic error. A major strategic error that cost us. But despite that we were still very close. Another few years of Scotland having absolutely no say in her destiny and being ruled by a majority Tory government backed up by a complicit by inactivity labour opposition and we will be within touching distance.

Tartandon, sorry man. Didn't mean to evoke bad memories. Had a wee tear in my eye when I posted that. Hopefully the next time we have tears in our eyes whilst thinking of that occasion will be through elation of witnessing our independence with our loved ones

I can see where Dave is coming from. There was a big enough fear factor over independence to begin with without people contemplating the thought that their savings and their pensions that they have grafted all their lives for might suddenly be worth less than they expected. Being a public sector worker, having my pension f*cked around with is pretty much par for the course these days, so it would have been nothing new to me!

What I don't understand, is when Osborne vetoed a currency union, someone from the SG didn't come out and say "well, we're certain he's bluffing and if its a Yes we'll go into negotiations looking to remain in a currency union. However, if they won't play ball, here's what we think is the next best option ...".

I too favour an independent Scottish currency; in fact, I think a Scottish pound was SNP policy for a long time. A petrochemicals backed currency could potentially be very strong too, although given the way the oil price has nosedived since the referendum it would be a harder sell now.

[aaid]

Pear Worrier gets it spot on.

http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/be-critical-have-patience.html

[Rossy]

Pear Worrier gets it spot on.

http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/be-critical-have-patience.html

Absolutely, 200% right on the button.

The biggest mistake independence supporters could make would be to rush into a 2nd referendum.

There can only be one once there's clear and consistent, majority support for independence in Scotland. There can only be one when we know with absolute certainty that we'll win.

[Flora MaDonald]

Absolutely, 200% right on the button.

The biggest mistake independence supporters could make would be to rush into a 2nd referendum.

There can only be one once there's clear and consistent, majority support for independence in Scotland. There can only be one when we know with absolute certainty that we'll win.

....and it will still require the consent of London.

[adamntg]

My entire family also voted incorrectly.

people.

Guid Aberdeen loons. ?

[adamntg]

My entire family also voted incorrectly.

people.

Guid Aberdeen loons. ?

[weekevie04]

That article from Peatwarrior is pretty spot on.

I also enjoy reading/hearing comments from Doug Daniel too. He's been on a few Indy podcasts,(although I dinnae ken the boy if he's interested or not) he probably would be a very good candidate for a councillor or MSP.

It's a double-edged sword. The SNP are popular. Massively popular. Where in the western world can a government of 8 years be polling 40% ahead of the opposition? Not even the ANC have this much support. Some may think, strike whilst the iron is hot as when will we get the chance again? I think we have to bide our time a bity for now, and let's see what happens within these next few years of a Tory UK government, an EU referendum, and the effects of austerity begin to kick in.

We have to learn from the mistakes before we go again. We have to find out why people voted No, and if they are ever to be swung? The currency was not strong, and we were constantly on the back foot. It would have helped having at least a merely wee bity bias media rather than full on propoganda we seen the 10 days before the vote, or the subtle 'Yes, No, final wee dig at Yes' on Reporting Scotland as such.

I know of two people who were No - one didn't vote, but both are now Yes and whilst I don't think 'The Vow' had much of a swing factor, he says he regrets his vote.

It'll be interesting to see what the party will do. Put an Indyref option in there under certain circumstances? I believe they'll go for a Home Rule one rather, and that's when it'll get interesting, especially if we vote Yes to that.

[Marky]

George Osborne would have announced on 19 September that there would be a currency arrangement as it is the position that makes most sense for all parties.

That was the most galling part of the currency argument.

The problem is that all existing Yes voters would have been convinced of that fact. The bottom line is that not enough was done to convince swithering No voters that would be the case.

[scotlad]

It was a good article from Peat Worrier, one of the more intellectual pro-indy bloggers on the scene at the moment.

I'd love nothing more than to wake up tomorrow in an independent Scotland but I'm quite sure if he held another referendum any time soon the outcome would be more or less the same. I'd sooner wait another 20 years and get it right than go again in 2 only to fail once more. I also know one or two people who voted No and are now feeling a bit disillusioned but I am not sensing a groundswell of support towards indy. Some may point to the SNP's current success but that is largely because they appear to be the only vaguely competent mainstream party standing for election in Scotland at the moment, rather than a growing trend towards independence.

We can't even rely on the Tories being c**ts either - people may not like what they are doing but without a viable alternative put before them a lot or people are likely to side with the devil they know. At the moment the reduced price in oil and the "£7bn black hole" that unionist politicians have been w*nking themselves into a frenzy over lately are unlikely to win over many soft Nos unless a convincing economic plan which addresses both can be put together.

[hunchy]

Part of me thinks there are enough people who voted no and have now regretted that choice for us to win a second ref just now and strike while the iron is hot but as someone said take a bit of time and let Westminster do its worst to us and that could push more folk to the yes side