AlfieMoon Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Survation Sub-Sample (8-9 May): Yes - 52.6% No - 47.4% YouGov Sub-Sample (8-9 May): Yes - 54.7% No - 45.3% We'll need to see a full-scale Scotland poll to confirm this, but could this be the start of the shift towards clear support for independence? Probably just a reaction to a Tory government. I would expect that to calm down slightly. Good review of where we stand now by Brian Taylor: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-32688009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doakes Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 The tories removing the human rights act could be justification enough in my books - but to increase the chances of a Yes vote - allow the Tories to dig their own grave. If you force the issue, people will be put off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 We shouldn't rule out a referendum, It's the biggest stick that Nicola has got to wave at the Westminster ruling elite. Yes, we now have 56 MPs but they will have virtually no power. A wee bit of influence maybe? The only thing at even slightly worries the Tories is the threat of another referendum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jailender Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Not 100% sure of this, but does the Westminster government not have to give permission for a referendum to take place ? Seem to recall that from somewhere. In that case, it wont be straightforward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlfieMoon Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Not 100% sure of this, but does the Westminster government not have to give permission for a referendum to take place ? Seem to recall that from somewhere. In that case, it wont be straightforward. Yes. But the precedent has been set that they allowed this when the Scottish electorate democratically voted the SNP into Holyrood on a majority on the manifesto of holding a referendum. It would be a brave move to reject such a referendum if the same circumstances were to be replicated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Not 100% sure of this, but does the Westminster government not have to give permission for a referendum to take place ? Seem to recall that from somewhere. In that case, it wont be straightforward. Yes, technically it does but because they have already agreed to one the principle has been set. I could see them being awkward about it but ultimately they would probably have to allow it. Unless they want to withdraw from the UN Charter as well as the EU Human Rights Act. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derekfaejapan Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 I think it's too soon to mention another Indy Ref and Nicola probably knows that too. If she does then I think she should insist that it's 'internationally monitored'...Just those two words will certainly get a lot of folks attention, not just in Scotland, the rUK but the rest of the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Tough call The general consensus is to leave it till 2020 Manifesto However Tory cuts could make a Scottish Government look bad so it could be a case of go while the iron is hot Then again Tory cuts could make Independence more popular so leaving it till 2020 might make it a shoe in Glad im not making that call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FuNsTeR Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Agree with this. The snp should put everything into having as good a term as possible without Indy in the manifesto. Represent the people properly at both parliaments, work hard. Then, once everybody has cooled off a bit, stick it in for the next one. I think it would be a big mistake to take it on so soon when people are probably a bit jaded after a fairly recent 3 year campaign. Also, in the intervening time I am confident that the unionist parties, and particularly the Tories, will do their damnedest to alienate us (and anybody of the left leaning persuasion). They can't help themselves. Hopefully most of the groundwork will be done. And focus should be given to developing the economic argument. the next referendum campaign will be lucky if it's for 3 months and I think the YES campaign will not be so naive as the last time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thorbotnic Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 I think that's what'll happen. Can't see another referendum any time soon, despite the Unionist parties' pre-election claims. I doubt a huge number of the electorate would be keen on another two years of continual debate in the run up to it. Heard some politicos discussing the prospect of another referendum last week. The consensus was that you probably only get two shots at it, giving the example of Quebec where the appetite for another seems to have gone after the second failure (took them 15 years to get another vote too). The new dimension to our debate is clearly the election result however. I don't know too much about Canadian politics but I doubt the Quebecois sent a nationalist group comprising 95% of the province's elected members to the central parliament just a few months after losing a referendum... Not quite - the BQ won 44 out of 75 seats in the next federal election. But that was 2 years later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kumnio Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 It has to be in the manifesto. Its the number 1 aim of the party, to not have it in the manifesto would just be insincere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDange Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 For me the main thing is to focus on where it was lost last time and directly target NO voters. Some will never turn but those caught up in the Project Fear hysteria could be impressionable. A 6% swing is definitely achieveable after some of last week's results. Keep regular polling so it remains in people's thoughts and wait until it's returning at least 60% YES regularly. However it might not be a bad idea to get it in early whilst Labour is in a complete shambles throughout the UK. For the SNP at Westmibster, the only way is down and any loss in that momentum will damage the Indy cause. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robroysboy Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 For me the main thing is to focus on where it was lost last time and directly target NO voters. Some will never turn but those caught up in the Project Fear hysteria could be impressionable. A 6% swing is definitely achieveable after some of last week's results. Keep regular polling so it remains in people's thoughts and wait until it's returning at least 60% YES regularly. However it might not be a bad idea to get it in early whilst Labour is in a complete shambles throughout the UK. For the SNP at Westmibster, the only way is down and any loss in that momentum will damage the Indy cause. i think we need 10 years before going for referendum 2. The older generation that were predominantly voted no, will either be pushing up daisies. Soar Alba, our day will come Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mariokempes56 Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Not 100% sure of this, but does the Westminster government not have to give permission for a referendum to take place ? Seem to recall that from somewhere. In that case, it wont be straightforward. I'll put this politely . Funk Westminster.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Something else to add into the mix is that this may only be a 3 year parliament. With the next UK General Election in 2020, the Scottish election will have to take place in 2019 or 2021. A shorter term may result in a reduction of manifesto pledges and put second referendum talk on hold?... http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/voting-row-could-leave-scots-facing-two-holyrood-elections-in-the-next-fo.125735558 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Something else to add into the mix is that this may only be a 3 year parliament. With the next UK General Election in 2020, the Scottish election will have to take place in 2019 or 2021. A shorter term may result in a reduction of manifesto pledges and put second referendum talk on hold?... http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/voting-row-could-leave-scots-facing-two-holyrood-elections-in-the-next-fo.125735558 The simple answer would be to change the term of Scottish parliaments to 5 years from now on. But we are talking about politicians so they probably won't go for the obvious solution. It is a sign of the level of contempt with which the UK Westminster elite views Scotland when they didn't even bother to consider this when they brought in the fixed term parliaments for Westminster. What happens if we change the date of the Scottish elections to 2019 and then find that the UK Tories have to go to the country a year early because they can't control a majority in the HoC around about that time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Something else to add into the mix is that this may only be a 3 year parliament. With the next UK General Election in 2020, the Scottish election will have to take place in 2019 or 2021. A shorter term may result in a reduction of manifesto pledges and put second referendum talk on hold?... http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/voting-row-could-leave-scots-facing-two-holyrood-elections-in-the-next-fo.125735558 It has to be 2021, as it can't clash with UK (obviously), local council or European elections. Election Timetable: 2015 - UK Election 2016 - Scottish Election 2017 - Local Council Election 2019 - European Election 2020 - UK Election 2021 - Scottish Election* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Get on to the Herald man! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Get on to the Herald man! Done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biffer Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Unless they want to withdraw from the UN Charter as well as the EU Human Rights Act. welllllllllll.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 welllllllllll.... Well what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biffer Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 (edited) Well what? They already want to withdraw from the EU Human Rights charter, so I wouldn't put it past them. Edited May 13, 2015 by biffer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jockodile Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 SNP always need to leave open the option of a ref, but there are plenty lessons from last yr that need understood, and some tough realities faced be it currency or whatever. next time is our last chance for a long time, need to be pretty sure before it is seriously considered. 2020 earliest I'd guess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Nicola will have it in her manifesto next year , due to EU ref ' could change things' .etc It will be in next manifesto as well and Nicola will win in 20/21 and Boris will be UK PM,,, Next indy ref will be 22/23 What needs to be done for next year is a strong second vote for the Greens, from SNP supporters, kick Labour and the unionist vote when its down return 55 + SNP and 15-20 green... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Nicola will have it in her manifesto next year , due to EU ref ' could change things' .etc It will be in next manifesto as well and Nicola will win in 20/21 and Boris will be UK PM,,, Next indy ref will be 22/23 What needs to be done for next year is a strong second vote for the Greens, from SNP supporters, kick Labour and the unionist vote when its down return 55 + SNP and 15-20 green... There are 73 constituancies in the Scottish Parliament so the SNP will have way more than 55. The second vote Green could make a major difference though. Based on poll predictions the SNP will take most of their share through the constituency vote, winning 70 of 73 seats which is an outright majority already. Voting SNP in 2nd vote would only increase the SNP seats 2 to a total of 72. This would see Labour in 2nd place on 28 seats with the Greens on 10. The big difference is if you get about 25% of SNP voters giving thier 2nd vote to the Greens increasing their vote by 14%. This sees the SNP drop a meesly 2 seats, retaining a majority but would see Labour drop to 21 seats and the Greens rising to 26 becoming the 2nd largest party! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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