Plane Crash In French Alps

[Orraloon]

No he is saying if you've already thrown 99 heads in a row, the next throw still has a 50/50 chance of being heads.

That is what he said to start ff with, and is obviously correct, but he then went on to say this

there is as much chance of 100 heads coming up as any other combination.

Which is very different, IMO.

[Holty]

BBC now reporting the leak that one of the pilots was locked out of the cockpit. I know nothing about planes, if the pilot had collapsed at the 'wheel' wouldn't the plane simply continue to cruise at 38,000 feet? Does a manual act have to be performed to decrease the height to 8000 feet?

[Rossy]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/mar/26/germanwings-plane-crash-investigation-press-conference-live-updates-4u9525

The suggestion from the French prosecutor is now that it was suicide by the co-pilot. Apparently all the evidence they have points towards that (see story).

Edit : Sorry, they haven't said 'suicide'. Only that all the evidence points towards it being a 'deliberate act'.

Edited March 26, 2015 by Rossy

[Orraloon]

The probability of 100 heads in a row is the same as 50 heads then 50 tails in a row.

It's not the same as having 100 heads as opposed to 50 heads and 50 tails in any sequence.

Two completely different things.

Any sequence of 100 coin tosses has the same probability as any other sequence. However a random distribution of 50 heads and 50 tails has a much lower probability as there are more sequences that will give that result.

Ok , I think we are on the same wavelength as far as the numbers are concerned. It's just the way you worded it that threw me. You initially said "any other combination" which isn't he same as "50 heads then 50 tails in a row." IMO. That is a very specific combination. But I now see what you meant.

I am not convinced that plane crashes are independent events though.

[johnnie x]

The comments from the French prosecutor are absolutely terryfing.

Families and friends must be in some state.

[Rossy]

The comments from the French prosecutor are absolutely terryfing.

Families and friends must be in some state.

Horrendous for the families to be faced with what their loved-ones must have went through in their last minutes.

Selfishly...and I'm probably speaking for a lot of people here....there's a strange relief in knowing that this Airbus (apparently) didn't just fall out of the air due to mechanical failure.

Edited March 26, 2015 by Rossy

[phart]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/mar/26/germanwings-plane-crash-investigation-press-conference-live-updates-4u9525

The suggestion from the French prosecutor is now that it was suicide by the co-pilot. Apparently all the evidence they have points towards that (see story).

Edit : Sorry, they haven't said 'suicide'. Only that all the evidence points towards it being a 'deliberate act'.

it's not really suicide when you take 160 other folk with you, it's mass murder. With the caveat of course being if this is the actual situation. I'm speculating on reports rather than facts here.

[McTeeko]

Horrendous for the families to be faced with what their loved-ones must have went through in their last minutes.

Selfishly...and I'm probably speaking for a lot of people here....there's a strange relief in knowing that this Airbus (apparently) didn't just fall out of the air due to mechanical failure.

I don't feel relief at all. These days there's probably more of a chance of anyone of us boarding a plane piloted by a complete lunatic as there is of a plane just falling out of the sky.

I'd actually rather take my chances with engine failure - at least then there's a hope of a hefty 'safe' landing in a field somewhere.

[Squirrelhumper]

I don't feel relief at all. These days there's probably more of a chance of anyone of us boarding a plane piloted by a complete lunatic as there is of a plane just falling out of the sky.

I'd actually rather take my chances with engine failure - at least then there's a hope of a hefty 'safe' landing in a field somewhere.

Agreed.

[Toepoke]

Selfishly...and I'm probably speaking for a lot of people here....there's a strange relief in knowing that this Airbus (apparently) didn't just fall out of the air due to mechanical failure.

I imagine many Airbus employees will be relieved anyway.

Surely now there will be regulations brought in to ensure no one is left alone in the cockpit?

Edited March 26, 2015 by Toepoke

[deecie]

I don't feel relief at all. These days there's probably more of a chance of anyone of us boarding a plane piloted by a complete lunatic as there is of a plane just falling out of the sky.

What a load of nonsense.

[McTeeko]

What a load of nonsense.

How is it nonsense? WTC, Pentagon, Pennsylvania, this one in the Alps, the Malaysian one (although no-one knows actual details)...

What is the ratio of these against planes just falling out of the sky? Genuine question.

[aaid]

it's not really suicide when you take 160 other folk with you, it's mass murder. With the caveat of course being if this is the actual situation. I'm speculating on reports rather than facts here.

In a lot of ways it's no different from these mass shootings you see in the US where the perpetrator either shoots themselves or commits suicide by police. People who are seriously screwed up and really hate the world.

[phart]

Not really. Have a rule that there must always be two individuals in the cockpit. If one of the pilots has to nip out for a couple of minutes, he or she is replaced by another member of the cabin crew. If the other pilot is medically incapacitated, the second pilot won't be locked out (and it would make it tougher in cases of suicide / mass murder by plane).

That's Lufthansa policy anyway, so something else has also happened here.

What a load of nonsense.

[UPROAR]

I don't feel relief at all. These days there's probably more of a chance of anyone of us boarding a plane piloted by a complete lunatic as there is of a plane just falling out of the sky.

I'd actually rather take my chances with engine failure - at least then there's a hope of a hefty 'safe' landing in a field somewhere.

what about getting on a train, bus, friends car ? Sharing the road with other drivers who might feel the same way...

[deecie]

How is it nonsense?

Seriously?

Read what you've written then go have a word with yourself.

[Scouse Eddie]

what about getting on a train, bus, friends car ? Sharing the road with other drivers who might feel the same way...

Regarding trains there are safety systems built in to stop a train for example travelling to fast towards a buffer a red signal or a junction/ curve, however these systems can be isolated by the train driver so wouldn't work.

The only safeguard and quite a rare one is if you had a runaway train then the signaller and depending what route the train is travelling on could divert the train by operating a set of points

So to all you lovely fare paying customers who travel by train you can all sleep well, if you are a fare dodger then you are not insured so tough. .

[neilser]

WTC, Pentagon, Pennsylvania

I've never heard anyone seriously suggest that the original pilots of those planes (as opposed to the hijackers who subsequently took over the controls) deliberately took them down...

Edited March 26, 2015 by neilser

[Toepoke]

To be fair McTeeko is just comparing planes downed intentionally versus unintentionally and the relative chances of being the victim of either event...

[McTeeko]

To be fair McTeeko is just comparing planes downed intentionally versus unintentionally and the relative chances of being the victim of either event...

Yeah that's what I meant. A lunatic taking over the controls rather than the assigned pilot.

[Bristolhibby]

Yeah that's what I meant. A lunatic taking over the controls rather than the assigned pilot.

IMO this incident is indirectly related and as a consequence of 9/11.

9/11 meant Fort Knox like doors to the cockpits became industry standard. The only people getting in were the pilots, from the flight deck.

The other day we are seeing the unintended consequence of this policy. Now when one pilot decides to top himself, there is literally nothing that can be done from outside the flight deck.

IMO world wide standard operating procedures now need to include a flight attendant "tagging in" with any pilot going to take a leak/dump. That way, if the pilot goes rogue, the attendant can always open the flight deck up to the other pilot.

J

[Rossy]

Tbh, as someone who flies at least once a month with Easyjet...and therefore on a A320....I'd rather take my chances on the mental capacity of the pilots rather than a possible fleet-wide fault in the structure/engine/wiring of the aircraft.

Not much relief for the poor families of the victims in that, but this is starting to look like a bizarre, extreme and unfortunately unstopabble incident...

[DonnyTJS]

That's Lufthansa policy anyway, so something else has also happened here.

Really?

[neilser]

I think I'd feel safer if the likelihood of a plane coming down due to deliberate pilot action (whether the original pilot or a hijacker) is higher than the likelihood of it being due to mechanical error. There's always going to be a theoretical risk of the former due to the complexities of human nature whereas improvements in mechanical engineering are something that is going to be (and should be) striven for on a continual basis.

If we get as near as we possibly can get to ensuring that a plane will never suffer a catastrophic failure then it goes without saying that the likelihood of deliberate pilot action being the cause of a crash will be greater. 40 or 50 odd years ago I'm sure that mechanical failure was a far more likely cause but I wouldn't want us to go back to the stats that we had then...

[johnnie x]

Really?

Spohr is asked whether Germanwings or Lufthansa protocols provide for a second member of the flight crew to be in the cockpit if one of the pilots leaves. He says that the company does not have such a protocol, that European regulations do not require it, and that he is not aware of any of the company’s competitors that have such a procedure.