Independence Referendum: Take Ii

[UPROAR]

Here's another thing ahead of #indyref2 - the GERS figures released today are pretty brutal. We need a decent spin on why the economy is failing. Is it good enough to continually blame Westminster for the Scottish deficit as outlined by GERS? Unionists and journalists weighing in on social media now. The public narrative is going to continue to be that Scotland is a basket case.

there is a complete opportunism about the numbers. £4Bn every year is interest on debt taken out in our name by the UK government but not spent/invested in Scotland - yet we still are allocated a population share. This needs to be addressed.

our economy under performs and that is the point of independence - it has to be dealt with. In the last 50 years we have had an average annual growth of 1.8% compared to the UK average of 2.3%. That may not sounds like much but if we had performed at the average our economy would be 25% BIGGER than now!!

Oil will remain important and there will be opportunistic focus on the numbers - however oil is low just now because OPEC want to grind shale production into dust. They will do that and then they will take the profits they are currently foregoing back with a vengeance. Oil will be driven back up to correct for the loss. We'll see how much opportunism there is then.

Scotland has still given £150Bn more in the last 30 years than it got back, this will continue apace since year to year is not the story - it is the revenue over time which matters. (this is the cause of the -0.5% lack of growth - we invested our wealth in London)

The mismanagement of our core economy (low growth) and of our oil asset (no fund) is on an epic scale for incompetence and yet they have the deliberate illiteracy of the media behind them.

[AlfieMoon]

Here's another thing ahead of #indyref2 - the GERS figures released today are pretty brutal. We need a decent spin on why the economy is failing. Is it good enough to continually blame Westminster for the Scottish deficit as outlined by GERS? Unionists and journalists weighing in on social media now. The public narrative is going to continue to be that Scotland is a basket case.

I can only see the GERS figures getting worse to be honest unless there is another massive oil boom fuelled by particularly high prices. From that perspective - we may well have missed the boat with the economic argument. We've received a higher %age of public spending as a whole (for the 2nd year running I think?), our deficit / fiscal balance is worse, As much as the Scottish economy grows and recovers - I simply can't see how it can match the growth of London/England when we are operating with one hand tied behind our backs and all the focus on London centralisation of our UK economy. It's like having a house of an equivalent value in an exclusive area of Glasgow/Edinburgh vs London. The value of the London asset is going to grow at a higher rate over the same period of time and that is the same with the economy. Especially with oil prices down and then things like the potential for Longannet to be closed which will further reduce Scottish GDP, and look likely to increase energy dependence on England - all in an energy system which is distinctly disadvantageous to Scotland (or any location for that matter, the further away from London you get) while the national grid remains as a private interest organisation.

I could never see any positive impact of a No vote back in September as I feared that we'd continue to be asset stripped until there is nothing less. Then you find yourself in a situation where the strong economic performance of Scotland in the last 30 years seems like ancient history to London and Middle England and with them already grudging higher public spending levels in Scotland then where does that leave the family of nations when we genuinely don't contribute our share? That's the point at which the Empire grants/pushes their colonies to independence - when there's nothing left.

Edited March 11, 2015 by AlfieMoon

[Armchair Bob]

You're probably right AlfieMoon.

A question that we won't know the answer for sure about until it has happened is, will the economic gravitational pull of London still affect us as much after independence? If yes then there *is* an economic case for the union, if we're going to get sucked dry anyway we might as well get something back. I suppose the example of Ireland and the historic figures from that last 40 years refutes that though.

[Auld_Reekie]

I can only see the GERS figures getting worse to be honest unless there is another massive oil boom fuelled by particularly high prices. From that perspective - we may well have missed the boat with the economic argument. We've received a higher %age of public spending as a whole (for the 2nd year running I think?), our deficit / fiscal balance is worse, As much as the Scottish economy grows and recovers - I simply can't see how it can match the growth of London/England when we are operating with one hand tied behind our backs and all the focus on London centralisation of our UK economy. It's like having a house of an equivalent value in an exclusive area of Glasgow/Edinburgh vs London. The value of the London asset is going to grow at a higher rate over the same period of time and that is the same with the economy. Especially with oil prices down and then things like the potential for Longannet to be closed which will further reduce Scottish GDP, and look likely to increase energy dependence on England - all in an energy system which is distinctly disadvantageous to Scotland (or any location for that matter, the further away from London you get) while the national grid remains as a private interest organisation.

I could never see any positive impact of a No vote back in September as I feared that we'd continue to be asset stripped until there is nothing less. Then you find yourself in a situation where the strong economic performance of Scotland in the last 30 years seems like ancient history to London and Middle England and with them already grudging higher public spending levels in Scotland then where does that leave the family of nations when we genuinely don't contribute our share? That's the point at which the Empire grants/pushes their colonies to independence - when there's nothing left.

Good post. If we're going to lose the economic argument, we're going to need refine a compelling and convincing argument about why it's a burden, not a benefit, being in Union.

[McDange]

1. Get more MSM on the YES side

Convince "Scottish Labour" to support YES if they dare become a separate party following their gubbing in May.

[Big Dod]

1. Get more MSM on the YES side
2. Convince "Scottish Labour" to support YES if they dare become a separate party following their gubbing in May.

I can't see "Scottish Labour" being separate in any meaningful way as long as they are populated by the same people. Just a wee lap dog for the main UK party pretending to be a westie. Since the MSM is a branch of the Labour party in Scotland I don't think we could count on either of their support for a very long time, if ever. There would need to be a cull of MSP's and councillors as well as MP's. And papers dying on their feet. Here's hoping.

[perthTam]

If only an oil fund had been built up while the oil price was high we could have ridden out the current low oil price ....... why have we not got an oil fund and where did the money that should have gone in it actually go?

Lets hope we are separate and set up this type of fund with the money from oil off the west coast, in the Clyde estuary and from any fracking of oil shales. The oil in the North Sea might being produced in lower quantities now but that doesn't mean Scotland has is running out of oil.

[Auchinyell Sox Change]

One doesn't have to support either of the Old Firm or even be into football to be a bigot.

Having an unhealthy obsession about the existence of RC schools is usually a giveaway sign though.

Sectarianism highly commented on ? You don't say.

The Scotsman is a right wing rag and many of the intolerant nutters who post in it's "comment is free" section will be voting for UKIP Scotland in several weeks time.

Cheers for feedback

Am glad there's nothing to worry about then

[Toepoke]

Further revelations today...

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/revealed-civil-servant-who-issued-rbs-leak-email-links-with-better-together-leader.120666908

[thewelk]

All the no side of the referendum debate were doing was giving some meek self-serving, self-loathing Scots a list of convenient excuses to vote against their country. It couldn't have been easy for them but by clinging to the "currency" or "the eu" they could convince themselves that they were doing the best thing for Scotland and reduce that guilty feeling that they probably all still carry with them deep down.

Edited March 15, 2015 by thewelk

[hampden_loon2878]

Had an interesting talk with an ex navy lad on the rig today, he was telling me his brother inlaw who works from faslane says that trident was all ready to go to a base in florida in the event of a yes vote until a suitable place in the ruk was made,,,he also said that all of the top guys at the base thought a yes vote was going to happen

[brant grebner]

790,000 postal votes moved from Scotland to England for "verification"

Dundee count interrupted by 2 fire alarms to clear the building.

Party leaders openly admitting they knew the postal votes outcome before polls had closed.

The "exit polls" predicting the exact outcome from 10pm when there were no exit polls.

The international observers declaring that the counting process was like Swiss cheese when it came to security protocols.

Unaccompanied ballot boxes turning up at counts

The proven footage showing vote switching at the count - not the Russian footage, or the table with the ballots that were "just resting there".

The social media analytics showing 60/40 Yes.

70 per cent of bets placed in Scotland were on Yes.

shut yer pus

sour grapes

[Auchinyell Sox Change]

Had an interesting talk with an ex navy lad on the rig today, he was telling me his brother inlaw who works from faslane says that trident was all ready to go to a base in florida in the event of a yes vote until a suitable place in the ruk was made,,,he also said that all of the top guys at the base thought a yes vote was going to happen

I'd read barrow in furness

[Bristolhibby]

I'd read barrow in furness

Barrow builds them, it's not a naval base.

J

[Auchinyell Sox Change]

Barrow builds them, it's not a naval base.

J

Yeah fully aware of that

But do recall it being mentioned moving down there as Ruk base

Thought it bizzare as for a nuclear concern was not that far away from an independent Scotland

[AlfieMoon]

I can only see the GERS figures getting worse to be honest unless there is another massive oil boom fuelled by particularly high prices. From that perspective - we may well have missed the boat with the economic argument. We've received a higher %age of public spending as a whole (for the 2nd year running I think?), our deficit / fiscal balance is worse, As much as the Scottish economy grows and recovers - I simply can't see how it can match the growth of London/England when we are operating with one hand tied behind our backs and all the focus on London centralisation of our UK economy. It's like having a house of an equivalent value in an exclusive area of Glasgow/Edinburgh vs London. The value of the London asset is going to grow at a higher rate over the same period of time and that is the same with the economy. Especially with oil prices down and then things like the potential for Longannet to be closed which will further reduce Scottish GDP, and look likely to increase energy dependence on England - all in an energy system which is distinctly disadvantageous to Scotland (or any location for that matter, the further away from London you get) while the national grid remains as a private interest organisation.

I could never see any positive impact of a No vote back in September as I feared that we'd continue to be asset stripped until there is nothing less. Then you find yourself in a situation where the strong economic performance of Scotland in the last 30 years seems like ancient history to London and Middle England and with them already grudging higher public spending levels in Scotland then where does that leave the family of nations when we genuinely don't contribute our share? That's the point at which the Empire grants/pushes their colonies to independence - when there's nothing left.

I notice that today's employment figures show an improvement for the rUK while Scotland has rising unemployment for the 2nd consecutive quarter which now stands at 6% vs the UK average of 5.6%

It looks to be a continued weakening of Scotland's position in comparison to the wider UK which can surely only get worse while we don't have control of our entire economy and affairs. The pull and force of London and the South East will continue to surely increasingly leave Scotland behind.

This needs to be a wake-up call for the country as this evolves and gets worse. The fact that we've had a stronger employment position for a long time as we've went through and emerged from the recession has actually muddied the waters as the SNP has used that for good short-term publicity but doing that detracts from the bigger picture which they need to focus on and it makes them look hypocritical if they now try to blame the UK for us now falling behind.

[Clyde1998]

I notice that today's employment figures show an improvement for the rUK while Scotland has rising unemployment for the 2nd consecutive quarter which now stands at 6% vs the UK average of 5.6%

It looks to be a continued weakening of Scotland's position in comparison to the wider UK which can surely only get worse while we don't have control of our entire economy and affairs. The pull and force of London and the South East will continue to surely increasingly leave Scotland behind.

This needs to be a wake-up call for the country as this evolves and gets worse. The fact that we've had a stronger employment position for a long time as we've went through and emerged from the recession has actually muddied the waters as the SNP has used that for good short-term publicity but doing that detracts from the bigger picture which they need to focus on and it makes them look hypocritical if they now try to blame the UK for us now falling behind.

How much of the reducing UK figure is due to zero hours contracts?

[Argentina78]

The Media especially the BBC, there is no doubt in my mind that the mainstream media terrified many from voting YES with their scaremongering.

Whilst I realise that their scare tactics may not have the same result in a 2nd Indy Referendum I personally feel that to succeed in YES then control of Scottish broadcasting needs devolved to the Scottish Government.

[Scunnered]

then control of Scottish broadcasting needs devolved to the Scottish Government.

That sounds sinister

[Armchair Bob]

That sounds sinister

There's no way it will happen - the UK government will never relinquish their most powerful propaganda tool.

[Scunnered]

There's no way it will happen - the UK government will never relinquish their most powerful propaganda tool.

I, in no way, shape or form want an SNP government with control over broadcasting. And that's from someone who cancelled their TV license over the BBC's behaviour in the Indyref.

[Flora MaDonald]

Stephen Purcell has come out (pardon the pun) for independence.

[Scunnered]

Stephen Purcell has come out (pardon the pun) for independence.

Magic! More corruption to join Sheridan and the likes.

[Bzzzz]

Had an interesting talk with an ex navy lad on the rig today, he was telling me his brother inlaw who works from faslane says that trident was all ready to go to a base in florida in the event of a yes vote until a suitable place in the ruk was made,,,he also said that all of the top guys at the base thought a yes vote was going to happen

It was until their fix worked.

[Toepoke]

Stephen Purcell has come out (pardon the pun) for independence.

Bit late isn't he?