kumnio Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Humza Yousaf retweeted Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK 6h6 hours ago Latest forecast update: Con 285, Lab 280, LD 27, SNP 32, UKIP 4. More details at http://electionforecast.co.uk UKIP possibly only getting 4 despite the BBCs best efforts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Chances of a hung parliament at 92% now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_individual_constituencies#Eastleigh Eastleigh had a by-election last year. By-Election Results (compared to 2010): LIB - 32.1% (-14.4%) UKIP - 27.8% (+24.2%) CON - 25.4% (-13.9%) LAB - 9.8% (+0.2%) OTH - 4.9% (+3.9%) August Polling (compared to by-election): LIB - 40% (+8%) CON - 25% (N/C) UKIP - 21% (-7%) LAB - 12% (+2%) OTH - 3% (-2%) Hopefully, the UKIP factor is only a by-election thing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mariokempes56 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Lib/lab? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AberdeenAngus Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Lib/lab? Lib Dems policy is to go for coalition with party with most seats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northernscum Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Humza Yousaf retweeted Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK 6h6 hours ago Latest forecast update: Con 285, Lab 280, LD 27, SNP 32, UKIP 4. More details at http://electionforecast.co.uk UKIP possibly only getting 4 despite the BBCs best efforts. Some horrific figures for the LibDems in those forecast figures! Could well be wiped out completely in Scotland next year with Danny Alexander and Charlie Kennedy top of the "hit list". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Lib/lab? We'll see how Labour fair after people have seen Ed in the leader debates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kumnio Posted November 27, 2014 Author Share Posted November 27, 2014 We'll see how Labour fair after people have seen Ed in the leader debates Im amazed Labour are still doing so well. The thought of Ed in charge of the UK is scary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mariokempes56 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Lib/lab? Sorry I was questioning the table presentation. My error. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Of Paisley Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 So how could the Cyril Smith/Hands Up Little Boys Bottoms Party on 27 seats hold the balance of power in contrast to SNP potentially on 32 seats? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 So how could the Cyril Smith/Hands Up Little Boys Bottoms Party on 27 seats hold the balance of power in contrast to SNP potentially on 32 seats? Tory/Lib/UKIP coalition? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FuNsTeR Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 So how could the Cyril Smith/Hands Up Little Boys Bottoms Party on 27 seats hold the balance of power in contrast to SNP potentially on 32 seats? Labour Party will never go into coalition with the Snp as they despise the Snp and they had the opportunity to do just that the last time round ... they believe Scotland is their play thing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armchair Bob Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 I will be amazed if the SNP make more than 20 seats at Westminster once the UK media goes into full ignore mode in the run up to the election. It is possible though if the current polls keep up. Think around about 35% is the golden level of support beyond which the unfair FPTP system stops working to your disadvantage and starts working in your favour. Currently SNP is polling around 42% which gives it the lions share of Scottish seats... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewelk Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 I will be amazed if the SNP make more than 20 seats at Westminster once the UK media goes into full ignore mode in the run up to the election. It is possible though if the current polls keep up. Think around about 35% is the golden level of support beyond which the unfair FPTP system stops working to your disadvantage and starts working in your favour. Currently SNP is polling around 42% which gives it the lions share of Scottish seats... After all the hype recently, 20 seats for the SNP will be reported as another 'crushing failure' for the nationalists. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacobite Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 While not a huge victory the SNP have just taken a council seat from the Tories in Aberdeenshire. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bzzzz Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 I want the lot, I want every single "Scottish" unionist shitebag MP out of Westminster and a Yes representative in place. You look at some of the K**TS and you really have to wonder what the fk is going on in some peoples heads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stapes Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 While not a huge victory the SNP have just taken a council seat from the Tories in Aberdeenshire. Lost in Midlothian though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotlad Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 We'll see how Labour fair after people have seen Ed in the leader debates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 We'll see how Labour fair after people have seen Ed in the leader debates absolutely spot on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stapes Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Just looked at the stats for the Midlothian by-election and it appears that Labour went ahead when the Tory second preference votes were handed out. Not really surprising. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midlothian_Council_election,_2012 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Just looked at the stats for the Midlothian by-election and it appears that Labour went ahead when the Tory second preference votes were handed out. Not really surprising. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midlothian_Council_election,_2012 I wonder what would happen in the General Election though, due to FPTP. Could there be a tactical vote towards Labour (from the Tories, etc)? This could hurt the SNP's chances of winning Scotland if it does happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 I wonder what would happen in the General Election though, due to FPTP. Could there be a tactical vote towards Labour (from the Tories, etc)? This could hurt the SNP's chances of winning Scotland if it does happen. There could be some tactical voting, but it's difficult to orchestrate en masse. Plus the emergence of UKIP will be splitting the unionist vote 4 ways. I'd say it'd be important for the SNP & Greens to stand together to maximise the nationalist vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacobite Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 I wonder what would happen in the General Election though, due to FPTP. Could there be a tactical vote towards Labour (from the Tories, etc)? This could hurt the SNP's chances of winning Scotland if it does happen. I think there is going to be some of that.When do you ever hear a Labour politican in Scotland attack the Tory govt in London ?? They no longer see the Tories as their enemy. However don't think that will be enough to stem those who have switched to the SNP. Its a lot easier now with Labour's lurch to the right and the SNP being seen as a common enemy for Tories to vote Labour. Although it won't happen the most obvious coalition is Labour/Tory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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