What Year Will Scotland Be Independent?

[giblet]

Totally agree. I don't know a single No voter who was influenced by 'the vow'. The SNP are playing up the treachery and betrayal angle - before it has even happened - to push for another referendum and keep their bandwagon rolling. Yes did well, but lost. That should be accepted, No voters respected, and another go, if that's what people want, in a generation.

So are you stating that No voters voted no for the Status Quo with no further powers devolved?

[Clyde1998]

I can't possibly see UKIP getting enough seats to prop up a Tory government. They're getting publicity well beyond their influence at this moment....I reckon they'll get no more than 4 or 5 seats tops, and that will be considerably less than the SNP or even the Lib Dems.

The influence they do have is in driving the Tories (and even Labour) ever more to the right. That in itself could well be enough to guarantee a referendum on EU membership within the next 2 years.....and if the next leader of the Tories happens to be Boris Johnson...who has nothing but disdain for Scotland, then I'll be interested to see how that impacts on politics in Scotland.

As has been proven though, there are those in Scotland who are happy to accept any degradation that Westminster loads on us, and are happy to get shagged up the arse regularly, because they're either ; rabid BritNats/rabid haters of the SNP/people who don't give a shit and just want to stick their fingers in their ears (delete as appropriate).

Any movement towards 'home rule' or even independence will have to deal with at least 30% of the population who are absolutely intransigent.

I reckon that they could get up to 15 in the East/South East England - from what I'm seeing down here - and up to 5 others elsewhere. 20 would've been enough to prop up the last government...

I'm just looking at the most recent constituency opinion polls - 16 have been completed, with 8 where UKIP are polling ahead of the others or are within 3% of the lead party. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_individual_constituencies#Constituency_Polls):

• Boston and Skegness (East Midlands) - 20% UKIP lead over CON
• Clacton (East England) - 21% UKIP lead over CON (for General Election)
• Eastleigh (South East England) - 4% UKIP lead over CON
• Folkestone and Hythe (East England) - 3% CON lead over UKIP
• Great Yarmouth (East England) - 1% CON lead over UKIP
• Rochester and Strood (South East England) - 9% UKIP lead over CON
• South Thanet (South East England) - 4% UKIP lead over CON & LAB
• Thurrock (East England) - 6% UKIP lead over LAB

Although. I really hope they don't do well...

[Clyde1998]

I think this has to be 'if the vote is to leave the EU, but the majority in Scotland is to stay'

Edit: I also think that, if there is a referendum, the vote will be to stay.

That's what I meant, but I think it will be to stay too.

[Rossy]

Although. I really hope they don't do well...

I hope they do brilliantly....can you imagine a Tory/UKIP coalition with Boris Johnson as PM ?

Anything that hastens independence is fine in my book.

[Mitre]

A generation in Dundee is 14 years so I will say 2028...

[hampden_loon2878]

2019

[brant grebner]

1706

[thplinth]

1065

[andreimack]

Never.

[phil]

Seems to be the Cringers tactic of choice these days....'no-one was influenced by the vow'.

Of course, that's rubbish...but anyway, it's neither here nor there.

The 'vow' was made, and home rule/federal UK/devo max was promised to the people of Scotland. Unequivocably.

Just because you and a couple of your mates aren't interested in any more powers for Scotland doesn't mean that there aren't millions of people out there who expect the Scottish government to get the 'extensive new powers' as promised.

It's the duty of the Scottish government (which in this case has a SNP administration) to hold Westminster to account for this, and to puch for the maximum powers possible. I suspect that many....and polls seem to back this up.....see 'home rule' (Brown's words) as all powers devolved aside from defence and foreign affairs.

You might not like this, but well, tough.

Anyway, I think a problem here is that people are just believing whatever they want to believe, whatever feels good. It suits the purposes of the pro-independence lobby to believe that the 'vow' - or was it the 'pledge'? - made all the difference because it fits the narrative they want to pursue - we wuz robbed, cheated, tricked etc. And it keeps the pot boiling. In fact, it's just about impossible to identify exactly why people voted as they did with any degree of accuracy. When asked by pollsters, many people are likely to give the answer that casts them in the best light possible - i.e, 'I'm not a nationalist. I just want a fairer society.', or, to be fair, on the NO side, 'I think we're better together', not I'm worried about my pension. So, I'm pretty skeptical about polls. All I can say is I don't know anyone who shifted from Yes to. No as a result of the, frankly pathetic, last minute promises of the party leaders. Indeed, I know many No voters who are fairly peeved that they are being told they were duped, when they were solid No from the get go, and don't even want these extra powers.

Edited October 17, 2014 by phil

[Haggis_trap]

^ agree : though further powers wasn't on the ballot.
there should have been a second question....

arguably what we are getting no one voted for ?

[Rossy]

Anyway, I think a problem here is that people are just believing whatever they want to believe, whatever feels good. It suits the purposes of the pro-independence lobby to believe that the 'vow' - or was it the 'pledge'? - made all the difference because it fits the narrative they want to pursue - we wuz robbed, cheated, tricked etc. And it keeps the pot boiling. In fact, it's just about impossible to identify exactly why people voted as they did with any degree of accuracy. When asked by pollsters, many people are likely to give the answer that casts them in the best light possible - i.e, 'I'm not a nationalist. I just want a fairer society.', or, to be fair, on the NO side, 'I think we're better together', not I'm worried about my pension. So, I'm pretty skeptical about polls. All I can say is I don't know anyone who shifted from Yes to. No as a result of the, frankly pathetic, last minute promises of the party leaders. Indeed, I know many No voters who are fairly peeved that they are being told they were duped, when they were solid No from the get go, and don't even want these extra powers.

Regardless, the 'vow' was made....you can't just pretend it wasn't just because you were a solid no voter from the beginning.

In the last week of the campaign the 'vow' played a front and centre role. It was trumpeted at every turn and opportunity by the No campaign and their friends in the media.

The SNP are the only party who are going to hold Westminster to account and demand that the 'vow' is honoured.

That's not believing what we want to believe, that's simply asking for all promises to be kept.

[Duncan Blackheart]

It kind of was for a day a few weeks back.

[TheReid]

I don't think it will be long after 2020.

I don't think a majority of no voters were swayed by the "vow" but l do think if Westminster fail to deliver the vow that will resonate throughout the general elections in the future and will most definitely sub consciously effect the mindset of people in Scotland leading to a yes vote.

Here's hoping.

[Armchair Bob]

If English votes for English laws gets passed, leading to a major propaganda outlet (looking at you daily record and bbc) realising 'Scotland pays more than it gets back to no benefit to Labour' then we might see it earlier than I think.

[Bino's]

I don't think it will be long after 2020.

I don't think a majority of no voters were swayed by the "vow" but l do think if Westminster fail to deliver the vow that will resonate throughout the general elections in the future and will most definitely sub consciously effect the mindset of people in Scotland leading to a yes vote.

Here's hoping.

they can 'deliver' almost anything and have kept 'the vow' as it was never specified

won't impact upon anything

[Bino's]

If English votes for English laws gets passed, leading to a major propaganda outlet (looking at you daily record and bbc) realising 'Scotland pays more than it gets back to no benefit to Labour' then we might see it earlier than I think.

this is already happening and dominated the debate on devolution the other day

i don't see any great fall out up here, in our media or generally

apart from on this board to its credit

[TheReid]

they can 'deliver' almost anything and have kept 'the vow' as it was never specified

won't impact upon anything

You're right in the technical sense that no vow was outlined therefore they don't really need to deliver anything specific.

Although I do think the people of Scotland were under the illusion that the vow would ensure SIGNIFICANT powers were granted to the Scottish Parliament; a failure to do so could be catastrophic for Westminster parties imo.

[phil]

Regardless, the 'vow' was made....you can't just pretend it wasn't just because you were a solid no voter from the beginning.

In the last week of the campaign the 'vow' played a front and centre role. It was trumpeted at every turn and opportunity by the No campaign and their friends in the media.

The SNP are the only party who are going to hold Westminster to account and demand that the 'vow' is honoured.

That's not believing what we want to believe, that's simply asking for all promises to be kept.

You are absolutely right, and I am not pretending for a minute that the vow wasn't made. It was and should be honoured. My beef is with the SNP leadership putting it about that the vow was the only reason they lost, and since the vow is bound to be reneged on, the nation had been conned, the result was invalid, and we need a rerun. It's pretty obvious what they're doing. On the referendum night itself Sturgeon, with an eye on the future, was spouting her 'Scotland has voted for change', nonsense, when the only thing we knew for certain was that Scotland had done precisely the opposite, albeit by a fairly narrow margin. I have no problem with Yes voters, and no problem with people continuing to campaign for independence, but it should be done on the merits of the case, not based on Salmond and Sturgeon's mischief/myth making. Don't get taken for a ride on the betrayal bandwagon.

[mariokempes56]

Phil, well let's wait and see the vow being delivered. And wait, and see.

[Ally Bongo]

You are absolutely right, and I am not pretending for a minute that the vow wasn't made. It was and should be honoured. My beef is with the SNP leadership putting it about that the vow was the only reason they lost, and since the vow is bound to be reneged on, the nation had been conned, the result was invalid, and we need a rerun. It's pretty obvious what they're doing. On the referendum night itself Sturgeon, with an eye on the future, was spouting her 'Scotland has voted for change', nonsense, when the only thing we knew for certain was that Scotland had done precisely the opposite, albeit by a fairly narrow margin. I have no problem with Yes voters, and no problem with people continuing to campaign for independence, but it should be done on the merits of the case, not based on Salmond and Sturgeon's mischief/myth making. Don't get taken for a ride on the betrayal bandwagon.

Phil - there were many avenues of betrayal and not just "the vow" which the SNP is not stating was the only reason they lost

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4nRk_kb39Y

[scotlad]

Phil - there were many avenues of betrayal and not just "the vow" which the SNP is not stating was the only reason they lost

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4nRk_kb39Y

One of the single biggest failings of the Yes campaign was not addressing the 'grey vote' adequately enough. It did well in getting women and youngsters on board but despite everyone and their granny knowing that their granny is more likely to vote than they are this group was largely ignored.

Ironically, the SNP had pledged to raise the basic state pension - which is due to be frozen by the Tories - and, as Christine Grahame points out, it looks highly likely that free personal care, the Winter Fuel Allowance and the bus pass will have to be means tested.

[Ally Bongo]

This is a good take on it that Phil might like

http://www.newsnetscotland.scot/index.php/scottish-opinion/9817-why-did-nobody-question-brown-when-he-made-his-worthless-pledge