Polls

[scotlad]

It's a bit unsettling how the labour people are ignoring the polls and still 'fighting for all their seats' and never failing to mention the '30 percent undecideds'. It's like they already know that 30 percent has been earmarked for them.

There's surely no way they could pockle the vote to that extent without it being glaringly obvious.

I find the figures being bandied about hard to swallow too but the polls have been steady for months now; and polling companies have nothing to gain and everything to lose by producing deliberately misleading results.

I think a fair few Labour MPs will hang on by the skin of their teeth and others will lose narrowly.

[giblet]

A huge percentage of over 50s tend to always vote though..

only for another 15 to 20 years though.

[Ally Bongo]

I think the bookies will give the most likely scenario

William Hill

Labour to win a seat in Scotland 1/20

Not to win a seat 8/1

SNP to win every seat 5/1 (That is short)

Tories to win a seat 2/5

Not to win a seat 7/4

Edited April 29, 2015 by Ally Bongo

[UPROAR]

feckin hell...... I mean feckin hell

[Tartan Eagle]

only for another 15 to 20 years though.

FFS - I better get on with that bucket list then. Just when things were looking up too ?

[Parklife]

the big story in the polls is that the under 50's are favouring snp in their droves. This is a generational change happening right now.

Hardly a surprise when a majority of under 50s voted Yes.

[UPROAR]

I keep saying it - mortality rate 55k/yr, mostly old. We were 192k short of the finish line. A few years of the Tories stirring up English nationalism plus this....

unstoppable demographics and politics.

Edited April 30, 2015 by UPROAR

[Glasgowmancity]

I keep saying it - mortality rate 55k/yr, mostly old. We were 192k short of the finish line. A few years of the Tories stirring up English nationalism plus this....

unstoppable demographics and politics.

The one worry for the SNP (admittedly looking at it from the outside in) could be that they end up in the situation that the Lib Dems are in now. They could end up with enough power that people think they should be making sweeping changes but don't actually have enough power to do so.

[neilly71]

Correct ManCity, its been commented on before. Its a banana skin, but lets face it, no matter what happens SNP wont be officialy "part" of any government at WM. but aye, its something im sure they will be aware of.

[Auld_Reekie]

IMO, there's limited impact SNP can have at Westminster so they should go to Westminster and make a steady nuisance of themselves from the opposition benches.

When the SNP need to do serious work is at Holyrood. Last couple of years have been pretty poor IMO and it's here that people will eventually start to question the motives and ability of an SNP government. Loose that trust and power, and SNP will struggle to get it back - if they can't do it with Sturgeon, Im not sure who could do it.

Next 6 years at Holyrood need to be more ambitious and impressive than the last 4.

[MacWalka]

IMO, there's limited impact SNP can have at Westminster so they should go to Westminster and make a steady nuisance of themselves from the opposition benches.

When the SNP need to do serious work is at Holyrood. Last couple of years have been pretty poor IMO and it's here that people will eventually start to question the motives and ability of an SNP government. Loose that trust and power, and SNP will struggle to get it back - if they can't do it with Sturgeon, Im not sure who could do it.

Next 6 years at Holyrood need to be more ambitious and impressive than the last 4.

Agreed and they need to avoid steaming through with legislation if they have a majority like they started with Corroboration or Named Person.

[hampden_loon2878]

Bang on that is my worry also, thats why i am secretly wanting a concervitives landslide ?

The one worry for the SNP (admittedly looking at it from the outside in) could be that they end up in the situation that the Lib Dems are in now. They could end up with enough power that people think they should be making sweeping changes but don't actually have enough power to do so.

[Toepoke]

thats why i am secretly wanting a concervitives landslide

You're not very good at keeping secrets

(I think you could be right btw)...

[Dillinger]

I keep saying it - mortality rate 55k/yr, mostly old. We were 192k short of the finish line. A few years of the Tories stirring up English nationalism plus this....

unstoppable demographics and politics.

I'd rather win the argument better next time than wait for the old codgers to die off! We need a better way of reaching these old duffers whose idea of news is being lied to by the Daily Mail each morning.

[tartandon]

I keep saying it - mortality rate 55k/yr, mostly old. We were 192k short of the finish line. A few years of the Tories stirring up English nationalism plus this....

unstoppable demographics and politics.

don't forget to factor in the youth who would now have a vote.

We need 100K swing. I reckon we could have that by the end of 2016.

The real question is when would we have Referendum Mark 2?

[tartandon]

I'm also hoping for a Conservative landslide down south. Labour would be in meltdown both north and south of the border, leaving people up here with no choice but to keep voting SNP.

The ideal scenario would be a conservative majority with an EU referendum that sees England vote to exit the EU while we vote overwhelmingly to stay in.

Another referendum would surely follow on the back of this? or am I getting carried away again?

[AlfieMoon]

don't forget to factor in the youth who would now have a vote.

We need 100K swing. I reckon we could have that by the end of 2016.

The real question is when would we have Referendum Mark 2?

SNP need to get a majority at Holyrood firstly and then go for it 2019 in my opinion.

The tidal wave of support can't last forever so it's important to take the opportunity while they have it but equally there's no point in going for it unless things shift to the extent of having 60%+ support for independence to ensure a clear and decisive result.

[UPROAR]

I think one of the most important outcomes of the election could be the setting up of distinct Scottish parties in Scotland. If Labour get 15 or less then its all over and they would go down this road, the Tories might too but I suspect they have a chance if getting 2 maybe even 3 seats this time..

As soon as the parties split then really the whole scenario will be at FFA very quickly. After that we will be independent as soon as the deficit is gone - the deficit is really the engine of fear. Once its gone its all over bar the shouting - Scots want to be independent anyway, a few were just cautious and/or scared. No shame in that.

[AlfieMoon]

As soon as the parties split then really the whole scenario will be at FFA very quickly. After that we will be independent as soon as the deficit is gone - the deficit is really the engine of fear. Once its gone its all over bar the shouting - Scots want to be independent anyway, a few were just cautious and/or scared. No shame in that.

My fear with that is that with each passing year, we will actually be seen to be more and more dependent on rUK as the economy of London/England will continue to grow at a faster rate than Scotland so it may be the case that in winning one battle (against the deficit) then we have another obstacle of the Scottish economy performing below the level of the rUK. Of course - that should raise the question of why that is being allowed to happen but we know the reality of how it will be raised.

[UPROAR]

its a problem, it is actually the problem indy is designed to solve - look at the energy market - designed to export jobs to England. Our GDP is an average of 0.5% per year lower than the UK. This has gone on for half a century. Primarily it is because we invest our money in London. One of the consequences of FFA will be an enormous bounce in our economy. If you think about shared services and things the UK spends on our behalf, all of the jobs and benefits accrue in London.

Look at just the BBC, it currently raises £300m+/yr in license fees but less than £110M is spent in Scotland. Although we would continue to buy services and network programming, the rise in money spent Scotland would be vast - more than £100M/yr new spent on broadcasting and creative industries alone...

This is replicated many times over in different areas. This is when we should go for it, when the middle class is seeing the benefit.. and hopefully oil back at $120/barrel +

[aaid]

I'm also hoping for a Conservative landslide down south. Labour would be in meltdown both north and south of the border, leaving people up here with no choice but to keep voting SNP.

The ideal scenario would be a conservative majority with an EU referendum that sees England vote to exit the EU while we vote overwhelmingly to stay in.

Another referendum would surely follow on the back of this? or am I getting carried away again?

Genuinely interested in why you think that that this scenario would convince enough No voters to vote Yes so that the next referendum would be won.

[adamntg]

I'm also hoping for a Conservative landslide down south.

I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemy, let alone my neighbour and myself.

[Toepoke]

I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemy, let alone my neighbour and myself.

100% agreed, any joy at seeing big SNP gains would be severely tempered by the Tories winning a big majority...

[Auld_Reekie]

If people really want to take a sadomasochistic view of this election and are hoping for a Tory majority to push us over the line, there's a better option: a Labour majority! I honestly think Ed Miliband and Ed Balls would crash and burn in a very serious way. Miliband isn't even close to being leader material and the right wing press will absolutely savage the Labour Party over the next five years. There's a good chance a failed Labour government would debilitate the party for years. The best thing the Tories can do for the Labour Party is to beat them and let them pick a half-decent leadership team - power will expose them. And the only thing that's been keeping Scotland in the Union is the notion that we'll periodically get a competent Labour government to make everything alright. Take that away, and the Union will collapse like a deck of cards.

While I don't think we should be wishing the Tories on anyone (and why I support a Labour led government on principle), I don't think it really matters what happens in this election - regardless of who wins, we're about to see just how marginal Scotland is within the Union.

The case for the independence went through a pretty hostile, but largely reasonable, stress test during the referendum while the Union got to sit there untouched. Those tables have turned and this election and the years that follow are quite rightly going to ask some pretty serious questions of the Union - and I think a large number of Unionists are going to be disappointed in the results.

[Rossy]

I would like Jim Sillars to shut the f*ck up.