hampden_loon2878 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 (edited) Looks good but i ain't buyin it http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/exclusive-bombshell-daily-record-poll-5366657 Edited March 20, 2015 by hampden_loon2878 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewelk Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 (edited) http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/election-2015-your-complete-guide-predictions-about-scotland-and-snp The place that does the figures... if you area a poll junkie this is a good read for thise that are not around 40 seats for snp is the most popular outcome Disappointment for Sturgeon as Nats struggle to break 40 seat barrier. Exclusive interview with Jim Murphy MP inside... Edited March 20, 2015 by thewelk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamntg Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Daily Record poll: Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes - 51% No - 49% A bit disappointing to be honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 It's not disappointing at all. The main challenge for now is to stabilise public opinion at these kind of levels and not see it regress back to the 30s where historical polling was. The question of independence will start taking a back seat to other issues and it's then that we might see a regression in public support. Hugely important we try and limit that regression not worry about boosting support for independence. Instead of worrying about winning independence in the here and now, we need to address the major failings of last years campaign. Economy and currency the two main issues that need answering before we can go again. Keeping Yes support above 45% would be my target - if it starts dropping below this level, then Ill start to worry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
perthTam Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I am currently having a discussion with a freind who works for the conservatives and he say party polling has cameron winning by a fraction, the lib dems completely finished(as we all know) and the snp hovering around 20 seats.. Has there been any polling done by the snp and if so is there any indiaction what their seat count may be I find that more believable than the 50+ seats you see mentioned in some places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Noticed the Record are headlining with the "Nats oil lies" story however... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShedTA Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Latest poll by Survation: SNP - 47 (+2) Lab - 28 (-) Con - 15 (-) Lib - 4 (-1) UKIP - 3 (-) Grn - 2 (-1) this is too good to believe IMO. would be great but I am not buiying it yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FuNsTeR Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Wrong constituency I think? nah she is listed as a MP for North Ayrshire and Arran Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 nah she is listed as a MP for North Ayrshire and Arran Oh aye, right enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Wrong constituency I think? It's the right constituency. Labour are canvassing results of 50-50, with small leads for either party. SNP are claiming canvassing as 60-40 in their favour, but I was told 2 of their groups both returned results of 53-47 in Labours favour last weekend... The jovial mood within the Labour camp lasted 3 or 4 hours when later that day both groups canvassed similar leads for SNP. Most telling is that the Conservative polling has remained static from 2010, so the switch in support to SNP has been direct from Labour, I expect it's similar all over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 It's the right constituency. Labour are canvassing results of 50-50, with small leads for either party. SNP are claiming canvassing as 60-40 in their favour, but I was told 2 of their groups both returned results of 53-47 in Labours favour last weekend... The jovial mood within the Labour camp lasted 3 or 4 hours when later that day both groups canvassed similar leads for SNP. Most telling is that the Conservative polling has remained static from 2010, so the switch in support to SNP has been direct from Labour, I expect it's similar all over. How many Tories have got down that way? I could see a lot of them switching to Labour if it looks close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 How many Tories have got down that way? I could see a lot of them switching to Labour if it looks close. I don't have figures at hand but General Election results in 2010 were, Labour held roughly a 23,000 majority (memory only) over conservative : Labour Tory SNP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 How many Tories have got down that way? I could see a lot of them switching to Labour if it looks close. Given that the constituency contains Largs and Seamill I'd say loads! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I don't have figures at hand but General Election results in 2010 were, Labour held roughly a 23,000 majority (memory only) over conservative : Labour Tory SNP Actually that's wrong. SNP were 2nd in 2010 i think. Think I'm getting mixed up with 2005, I'll,look it up at lunch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 2010: Labour Katy Clark 21,860 47.4 +3.5 SNP Patricia Gibson 11,965 25.9 +8.0 Conservative Philip Lardner 7,212 15.6 -2.7 Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton 4,630 10.0 -6.4 Socialist Labour Louise McDaid 449 1.0 +0.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 2010: Labour Katy Clark 21,860 47.4 +3.5 SNP Patricia Gibson 11,965 25.9 +8.0 Conservative Philip Lardner 7,212 15.6 -2.7 Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton 4,630 10.0 -6.4 Socialist Labour Louise McDaid 449 1.0 +0.3 Early lunch? Cheers. This looks like one of the seats where tactical voting might come into play. Clearly the Tories aren't going to win so it could come down to whether they dislike the SNP more than Marxists. That's if they even know she is a Marxist? I predict Labour hold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 It's not looking good... But not 94% certain. I hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 It's not looking good... That depends on your point of view. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 That depends on your point of view. If anything is going to save Katy it will be her popularity in the area. She was well received at the anti TTIP meeting last night which she shared a platform with the SNP candidate. In contrast to a meeting a few miles over a few months ago where hapless Donohoe couldn't speak for being booed and heckled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antidote Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I can only see the polls getting worse for the red tories in Scotland as the blue tories will no doubt streak ahead in England. Couldn't happen to a better bunch of troughers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 2010: Labour Katy Clark 21,860 47.4 +3.5 SNP Patricia Gibson 11,965 25.9 +8.0 Conservative Philip Lardner 7,212 15.6 -2.7 Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton 4,630 10.0 -6.4 Socialist Labour Louise McDaid 449 1.0 +0.3 Ok lets go by roughly whats happening elsewhere... Conservatively 30% of Labour votes are going to SNP (37% elsewhere in Scotland.,) so 7000 off Katy and onto Patricia = 19,000 for SNP and 15.000 for Katy Say its 20% cos '' she is a well liked very sexy hard working MP'' ( Quotes by Mr S Cunnered ) it will be 4400, off Katy and onto Patricia = 17.600 Katy and 16,500 for Patricia Very close..... So I think thats where they are at Although where will the 4500 Lib votes go? Tory votes will go up a wee bit, they wont vote Labour, methinx , either Tory or Snp, Will Mr S Cunnered by happy or Sad come May 8th I am not a betting man but i think Katy will hold on ... I hope she doesnt as I want an SNP win.... Katy can come back as a minister in out first Independent Govt... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hunchy Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Given that the constituency contains Largs and Seamill I'd say loads! Don't worry I know plenty of SNP supporters in both largs (mostly younger folk) and seamill (across the board) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stapes Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 In the recent Midlothian by-election there were 100 Tory transfers. 75 went to the Labour Party, 25 to SNP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 (edited) Ah! But you're forgetting the 1/1000 SNP voters who will vote Katy Landslide Edited March 20, 2015 by Scunnered Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mariokempes56 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 In the recent Midlothian by-election there were 100 Tory transfers. 75 went to the Labour Party, 25 to SNP. You have similar figures for Labour to Tory / SNP as a split ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.