Dream Qualification scenario... 12th September 2023

[Bzzzz]

Sept 8th                                     Sept 12th
Georgia v Spain                         Norway v Georgia
Cyprus v Scotland                    Cyprus v Spain
                                                  (Scotland v England)

IF Spain beat Georgia and we beat Cyprus (likely) that would put us 11pts ahead of both Norway and Georgia. (us on 15, them both on 4pts with 4 games to go)

They play eachother the same time that we play England on the 12th Sept, if they were to draw that game we'd qualify that night as they'd both be left 10pts behind us with 3 games to go...

Could be an interesting evening at the world's oldest international fitba stadium... 


 

[Texas Pete]

It would be lovely if that happened but I’m not too bothered if it takes a bit longer. For once we don’t actually need other results to go our way for us to qualify. 

Beat Cyprus and Georgia and we’ll be going to Germany regardless of what happens elsewhere. As long as we beat Cyprus then a draw in Georgia will more than likely be enough as well. Of course taking something in Spain certainly wouldn’t hurt our chances. 

One scenario I don’t think I have seen anyone mention is if Spain win the rest of their games, which is very possible, then two points from our last 4 games would be enough. Even 1 might be enough with our (current) superior goal difference. Not that I want to rely on other results going our way but even if we make an arse of the rest of the campaign we’d need to be pretty unlucky not to still qualify. 

[Ally Bongo]

1 hour ago, Texas Pete said:

It would be lovely if that happened but I’m not too bothered if it takes a bit longer. For once we don’t actually need other results to go our way for us to qualify. 

Beat Cyprus and Georgia and we’ll be going to Germany regardless of what happens elsewhere. As long as we beat Cyprus then a draw in Georgia will more than likely be enough as well. Of course taking something in Spain certainly wouldn’t hurt our chances. 

 

Disagree

Cyprus away is critical - we should pick up 3 points and must because after that it is entirely possible the wheels could come off and we go into our last game against Norway possibly needing to win

Georgia are a completely different beast at home as we know to our cost -  and barring injury or suspension they will have the best attacking player on the park - there is no guarantee we will get anything from that game especially if Cyprus hold us to a draw or worse.

It is also highly unlikely we will get anything from Spain away so best to just accept that now

Edited June 22, 2023 by Ally Bongo

[Texas Pete]

13 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Disagree

Cyprus away is critical - we should pick up 3 points and must because after that it is entirely possible the wheels could come off and we go into our last game against Norway possibly needing to win

Georgia are a completely different beast at home as we know to our cost -  and barring injury or suspension they will have the best attacking player on the park - there is no guarantee we will get anything from that game especially if Cyprus hold us to a draw or worse.

It is also highly unlikely we will get anything from Spain away so best to just accept that now

You disagree with what exactly? Most of what I stated was factual information.

My main point was qualification is in our hands. If we beat Cyprus and Georgia then we qualify regardless of other results.

I don’t think we will get anything in Spain either but it would be nice if we did. 

[ParisInAKilt]

We should be aiming to win the group from this stage. 

[Texas Pete]

12 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

We should be aiming to win the group from this stage. 

Absolutely but that will be tough.

I suspect Spain will probably win the rest of their games so we would probably need to win our other 3 games and only lose by 1 goal in Spain. I doubt we’ll get any more than 5 or 6 points in our last 4 games which will be more than enough for second place. Who knows though? We could win all 4 games and romp the group or Spain could drop more points. 

Nothing would surprise me after the way the first half of the campaign has gone. 

[Caledonian Craig]

I have not looked at it but I am pretty sure by the time the Spain game comes around there could be such a scenario that a point for each of us sees us both qualify? Could make for a boring but relaxing 0-0. Unlikely I know but still.

Edited June 22, 2023 by Caledonian Craig

[Caledonian Craig]

45 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I have not looked at it but I am pretty sure by the time the Spain game comes around there could be such a scenario that a point for each of us sees us both qualify? Could make for a boring but relaxing 0-0. Unlikely I know but still.

Scrap that scenario. That is not possible.

[todd]

8 hours ago, Texas Pete said:

Absolutely but that will be tough.

I suspect Spain will probably win the rest of their games so we would probably need to win our other 3 games and only lose by 1 goal in Spain. I doubt we’ll get any more than 5 or 6 points in our last 4 games which will be more than enough for second place. Who knows though? We could win all 4 games and romp the group or Spain could drop more points. 

Nothing would surprise me after the way the first half of the campaign has gone. 

Weird to think we could finish on 16 points and fail to qualify (highly unlikely I know) yet we could lose our remaining 4 games but still qualify on 12 points 

[Caledonian Craig]

2 minutes ago, todd said:

Weird to think we could finish on 16 points and fail to qualify (highly unlikely I know) yet we could lose our remaining 4 games but still qualify on 12 points 

It is not possible now for us to finish on 16 points and not qualify (if Spain win all remaining games). As that would mean the maximum points Norway can finish on is 13 points and most Georgia would end up on is 10 points.

[todd]

1 minute ago, Caledonian Craig said:

It is not possible now for us to finish on 16 points and not qualify (if Spain win all remaining games). As that would mean the maximum points Norway can finish on is 13 points and most Georgia would end up on is 10 points.

Although it's not too outlandish to suggest that Norway can beat Spain in Norway? 🤔

[Texas Pete]

5 minutes ago, todd said:

Weird to think we could finish on 16 points and fail to qualify (highly unlikely I know) yet we could lose our remaining 4 games but still qualify on 12 points 

Yeah it is strange but that‘s probably always going to be the case for teams who win their first 4 matches in a 5 team group. It’s just we’ve never been in this position so haven’t thought about it. 

Both scenarios are very unlikely but you just never know what’s going to happen. I certainly can’t see us losing in Cyprus and I think we’ll get at least a point in Georgia. That really ought to be enough to qualify unless Spain drop more points. 

[Caledonian Craig]

5 minutes ago, todd said:

Although it's not too outlandish to suggest that Norway can beat Spain in Norway? 🤔

I cannot see it. Their defence is really poor - even Jan Aage Fjortoft realises that. Even Cyprus managed to score in Oslo.

[Judith]

We should remember that Spain dropping points now isnt just bad for our qualification hopes, it would put them under enormous pressure to qualify, and there is no certainty that they will react to that pressure positively.

We have given ourselves the best possible chance of qualification in the first 4 games and all the other teams will now be cutting each others throats, regardless of which way the results go.

I reckon if we beat Cyprus we are qualifying. It would take a freak set of results to stop us from there. Its just our mental conditioning as Scotland fans over the years that stops us from wanting to be so confident!

Of course a point in Georgia seals it. So lets just do that as well! 😆😆😆

[Texas Pete]

12 minutes ago, Judith said:

We should remember that Spain dropping points now isnt just bad for our qualification hopes, it would put them under enormous pressure to qualify, and there is no certainty that they will react to that pressure positively.

We have given ourselves the best possible chance of qualification in the first 4 games and all the other teams will now be cutting each others throats, regardless of which way the results go.

I reckon if we beat Cyprus we are qualifying. It would take a freak set of results to stop us from there. Its just our mental conditioning as Scotland fans over the years that stops us from wanting to be so confident!

Of course a point in Georgia seals it. So lets just do that as well! 😆😆😆

The real danger would come from Norway beating Spain. If that happens then Norway could finish on 16 points and Spain could finish on 18 points (if they both win their remaining games) and that would leave us needing to beat Cyprus and Georgia to ensure we qualify.

If we want to win the group then we would want Norway to beat Spain. 

I think we’d all take second place right now (we certainly would have before a ball is kicked) but we just really need to focus on beating Cyprus and giving it our all in the other games and what will be will be. 

[Judith]

15 minutes ago, Texas Pete said:

The real danger would come from Norway beating Spain. If that happens then Norway could finish on 16 points and Spain could finish on 18 points (if they both win their remaining games) and that would leave us needing to beat Cyprus and Georgia to ensure we qualify.

If we want to win the group then we would want Norway to beat Spain. 

I think we’d all take second place right now (we certainly would have before a ball is kicked) but we just really need to focus on beating Cyprus and giving it our all in the other games and what will be will be. 

I would have taken 2nd place before a ball was kicked, and in truth, would be happy enough if thats where we end up. But Im feeling a little greedy and wouldnt shake hands on it now! 

If we go into the last game against Norway needing to win to top the group, we would have all bitten your hand off for that before a ball was kicked as well.

As you said earlier, its just nice that its in our own hands for a change, regardless of how the other games pan out.

Beat Cyprus and we have 3 shots at qualification!

Unbelievable!

[Stockholm 1980]

For what its worth, i think Spain will drop points. 

Norway have the fixtures to think they can get back into things.

Norway v Georgia

Norway v Spain

Spain v Georgia 

Georgia v Spain

we could do with a load of draws

[Marky]

1 hour ago, Stockholm 1980 said:

For what its worth, i think Spain will drop points. 

Norway have the fixtures to think they can get back into things.

Norway v Georgia

Norway v Spain

Spain v Georgia 

Georgia v Spain

we could do with a load of draws

Yup. I was going to say, I've seen nothing in Spain's first two games to suggest they are likely to take maximum points in their remaining games.

[csinclair]

Everyone seems to be taking it as given that we'll lose in Spain. With the way we've played so far and given that this Spain side isn't one of their best, I can see us getting a point there and to be honest with the mentality of our team right now maybe even a win. It'll be tough sure but not impossible

[Texas Pete]

3 minutes ago, csinclair said:

Everyone seems to be taking it as given that we'll lose in Spain. With the way we've played so far and given that this Spain side isn't one of their best, I can see us getting a point there and to be honest with the mentality of our team right now maybe even a win. It'll be tough sure but not impossible

You know they’ve just won the Nations League don’t you? OK so they were hardly fantastic in either game but neither Italy or Croatia could beat them at a neutral venue so I would say our chances of taking anything from them in Spain are pretty slim. Not impossible but given they will be out for revenge I’d say they will be well up for the game. 

[csinclair]

1 minute ago, Texas Pete said:

You know they’ve just won the Nations League don’t you? OK so they were hardly fantastic in either game but neither Italy or Croatia could beat them at a neutral venue so I would say our chances of taking anything from them in Spain are pretty slim. Not impossible but given they will be out for revenge I’d say they will be well up for the game. 

Granted I didn't watch the Italy game but I didn't think Spain looked like much against Croatia and with some better finishing Croatia would have won. I think that win has papered over the cracks a bit for them. They're still a very good side don't get me wrong but we've faced tougher top seeds in recent years I believe

[Texas Pete]

1 hour ago, csinclair said:

Granted I didn't watch the Italy game but I didn't think Spain looked like much against Croatia and with some better finishing Croatia would have won. I think that win has papered over the cracks a bit for them. They're still a very good side don't get me wrong but we've faced tougher top seeds in recent years I believe

Yeah I would agree with that but we haven’t taken any points against the top seeds away from home since we beat Croatia in 2012 (as far as I remember anyway). 

That doesn’t mean we can’t take anything in Spain but it will be very difficult and my gut feeling is we will lose narrowly. 

If we beat Cyprus (and hopefully England) then we will be going to Spain on a real high so I wouldn’t rule anything out but it will be a very tough shift in Seville. 

[bigfingers]

Do you think Spain will be slightly worried? If they lose to Norway they are certainly in a battle.

[todd]

7 minutes ago, bigfingers said:

Do you think Spain will be slightly worried? If they lose to Norway they are certainly in a battle.

If they lose to Norway, I'll be slightly worried, especially if Norway have won their previous games!

Edited June 22, 2023 by todd

[Gala Tartan Army (Borders)]

Still think Spain will come out on top of group - they rested/rotated a few guys against us and won’t take any further chances with their line up. They will be right up for it against us.