Indyref 2 (2)

[vanderark14]

all the bitching between Alba and SNP supporters - Congrats to you all you are doing the unionists job for them

[King Of Paisley]

Poll out via Redfield and Wilton has yes in the lead by 4 points. Excluding DK's - Yes 49 No 45

[aaid]

1 minute ago, stocky said:

Last paragraph makes sense.

I do think the eu citz voted overwhelming NO last time, I believe this would be reversed. 

Don't know how many voters there are tho.300000, is a number I've seen quoted

So 200000 NO last time, (30/70)would be 200000 YES this time (70/30)

A net + of 100000 for the good guys

I tend to agree that they *should* be more supportive of indy but the truth is no-one knows, or if they do, it hasn’t been made public.

[aaid]

41 minutes ago, King Of Paisley said:

Poll out via Redfield and Wilton has yes in the lead by 4 points. Excluding DK's - Yes 49 No 45

Quite a bit of evidence that a number of DKs have shifted to Yes.   Majority for a ref next year as well.

Only one poll obviously, but encouraging nonetheless.

[King Of Paisley]

11 minutes ago, aaid said:

Quite a bit of evidence that a number of DKs have shifted to Yes.   Majority for a ref next year as well.

Only one poll obviously, but encouraging nonetheless.

Interestingly, a London-based pollster too

[Rich NATA]

5 hours ago, mcguffin said:

I remember that letter, just looked it up again: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/07/celebrities-open-letter-scotland-independence-full-text

Anyone got a definitive list of the businesses who were against it?

David Cameron had some of them in the back door at Downing Street, didn't he? Asked them to put something out about costs increases; put the sh*ts up the pensioners 'n' that.

Pretty sure M&S, John Lewis/Waitrose, Asda, B&Q, Co-Op were making such statements, which of course influences some people.

Pretty sure Morrisons and Tesco didn't take any side. 

[King Of Paisley]

Just now, Rich NATA said:

Anyone got a definitive list of the businesses who were against it?

David Cameron had some of them in the back door at Downing Street, didn't he? Asked them to put something out about costs increases; put the sh*ts up the pensioners 'n' that.

Pretty sure M&S, John Lewis/Waitrose, Asda, B&Q, Co-Op were making such statements, which of course influences some people.

Pretty sure Morrisons and Tesco didn't take any side. 

Baxters and Tunnocks were vehemently opposed to independence

[Clyde1998]

1 hour ago, King Of Paisley said:

Poll out via Redfield and Wilton has yes in the lead by 4 points. Excluding DK's - Yes 49 No 45

The SNP are on 41% for Westminster (excluding DKs):

• SNP 41% (-4)
• Lab 31% (+12)
• Con 16% (-9)
• LDm 8% (-2)
• Grn 2% (+1)
• RUK 2% (+2)
• Oth 1% (nc)

Labour are gaining more voters from other unionist parties than the SNP.

It's 46-43 in favour of a referendum within the next year.

[Hertsscot]

1 hour ago, vanderark14 said:

all the bitching between Alba and SNP supporters - Congrats to you all you are doing the unionists job for them

Unfortunately it's not just supporters, there's people higher up in both organisations who need to shut up and focus on the common aim of independence. Too many egos.

[exile]

Write up on latest polling from James Kelly

Readjusing after excluding don't knows

Yes 52% (+4) 

No 48% (-4)

Edited November 30, 2022 by exile

[Hertsscot]

6 hours ago, mcguffin said:

And Hertsscot, I don't expect you to 'give names' of course. But I'm totally intrigued as to who the 2 public figures are who you taught (and what you taught? My guess is that it's not bagpipe lessons?  ) Anyway, it makes you a 'proxy celebrity' in my view 

You're right it wasn't bagpipe lessons but they were in the same class at school. Haven't seen either of them for ten years but, although one gets some flack, I would say that both of them are decent human beings. I doubt think either would be particularly well informed on Scottish politics and I'm happy to accept they genuinely liked the idea of a United Kingdom, that might be true of most of those celebs. I don't attribute malice to them, just a naive ignorance laced with a measure of sentimentality.

[aaid]

1 hour ago, Rich NATA said:

Anyone got a definitive list of the businesses who were against it?

David Cameron had some of them in the back door at Downing Street, didn't he? Asked them to put something out about costs increases; put the sh*ts up the pensioners 'n' that.

Pretty sure M&S, John Lewis/Waitrose, Asda, B&Q, Co-Op were making such statements, which of course influences some people.

Pretty sure Morrisons and Tesco didn't take any side. 

John Lewis and Asda definitely did, I’ve hardly used them since.

[aaid]

49 minutes ago, Hertsscot said:

You're right it wasn't bagpipe lessons but they were in the same class at school. Haven't seen either of them for ten years but, although one gets some flack, I would say that both of them are decent human beings. I doubt think either would be particularly well informed on Scottish politics and I'm happy to accept they genuinely liked the idea of a United Kingdom, that might be true of most of those celebs. I don't attribute malice to them, just a naive ignorance laced with a measure of sentimentality.

Was one of them Ronnie Corbett?

[hampden_loon2878]

We can’t lose the western isles, very concerning 

[aaid]

7 hours ago, mcguffin said:

I remember that letter, just looked it up again: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/07/celebrities-open-letter-scotland-independence-full-text

I remember at the time wondering "who wrote the text? was it a PR firm? an anonymous journalist". It comes across as so 'crafted'.
So many names on that list are of people who I greatly admire. Of course, people are still free to hold whatever opinions they like, and express them in anyway they like, but I still to this day feel uneasy about celebrities, mostly based in one country sticking their noses into the affairs of another. They've slightly tarnished their reputations in my eyes.

And Hertsscot, I don't expect you to 'give names' of course. But I'm totally intrigued as to who the 2 public figures are who you taught (and what you taught? My guess is that it's not bagpipe lessons?  ) Anyway, it makes you a 'proxy celebrity' in my view 😉

AC Grayling has definitely changed his mind as he was the guest speaker at a London SNP branch meeting a few months ago,

[King Of Paisley]

5 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

We can’t lose the western isles, very concerning 

That has to be an outlier. There would need to be a HUGE swing for the likes of West Dunbartonshire to turn red again

[exile]

5 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

We can’t lose the western isles, very concerning 

Do you thinnk Alba have a chance of winning in their two seats?

[Clyde1998]

18 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

We can’t lose the western isles, very concerning 

If the next election is based on independence, I can't see Labour gaining that many seats in Glasgow, nor winning West Dunbartonshire or Inverclyde, on the vote shares in the poll.

[King Of Paisley]

Just now, Clyde1998 said:

If the next election is based on independence, I can't see Labour gaining that many seats in Glasgow, nor winning West Dunbartonshire or Inverclyde, on the vote shares in the poll.

For me, there would have to be a complete collapse in the SNP vote on the seats you have mentiones.

Labour winning that many seats would almost as inconceivable as the SNP having a near clean sweep as some polls in the past have predicted

[hampden_loon2878]

58 minutes ago, exile said:

Do you thinnk Alba have a chance of winning in their two seats?

No

[hampden_loon2878]

59 minutes ago, King Of Paisley said:

That has to be an outlier. There would need to be a HUGE swing for the likes of West Dunbartonshire to turn red again

Possibly, we actually don’t want the Tory vote to collapse completely as stupid as that sounds. I can say comfortable that the snp western isles will drop, maybe by 5% 

[stocky]

1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

We can’t lose the western isles, very concerning 

That map gees me the fear...

[aaid]

2 hours ago, King Of Paisley said:

That has to be an outlier. There would need to be a HUGE swing for the likes of West Dunbartonshire to turn red again

Martin Docherty Hughes polled 49.6% of the vote in 2019.   He outperformed the SNP across Scotland. The Labour candidate who was second got 28.5%.  Those actual votes and the changes since then in this poll don’t equate to him losing his seat.  

[scotlad]

5 hours ago, stocky said:

Last paragraph makes sense.

I do think the eu citz voted overwhelming NO last time, I believe this would be reversed. 

Don't know how many voters there are tho.300000, is a number I've seen quoted

So 200000 NO last time, (30/70)would be 200000 YES this time (70/30)

A net + of 100000 for the good guys

I'm swithering on which election would be best.

You do make a strong case for Westminster tho.

My issue with the WM option is I think a lot of soft-Yes voters, and even soft-No voters, will plump for the short term option of getting rid of the Tories and vote Labour.

The Redfield Wilton poll which came out this evening shows a reduction of the SNP vote and a significant increase in the Labour vote (albeit most of this appears to have come from the Tories).

[aaid]

The first thing to be aware of is that the percentage change figures in brackets are from the 2019 general election, they’re not over the last week or month but the last three years.   As we know, since then or more realistically in the last few months, Labour and the Tories have switched places, but Labour in Scotland, while showing an improved performance, it’s been a fraction of what’s happened in England. 

The other thing is that - consistently- over that three year period, the SNP have polled within the band of +-3% of the 45% they got in 2019.  This poll is just outside the bottom end of that range.  It may be an outlier, it may be the start of a trend, we just need to wait and see what happens next - I’ll be amazed if there aren’t polls from other companies out soon.  This. Support for the SNP being low doesn’t really compute with the rises in Indy questions either, so that raises a flag. 
 

Edit. Redfield Wilton don’t appear to have done a Scotland wide WM poll before, so that’s another reason to not jump to any conclusions. 

Edited November 30, 2022 by aaid