Indyref 2 (2)

[Toepoke]

9 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Moyes still won a European trophy and will probably be favourite with press to be the next Scotland manager.

True, Humza may also go on to win the Conference.

[Caledonian Craig]

Whilst others would win F all.

[exile]

Greens and Alba courted indy voters in 2021 for a stronger pro-indy parliament. Not sure how voting to bring down the pro-indy government would help that, or help garner more votes from pro-indy supporters in future. 

[Ally Bongo]

Almost certain Humza will resign before the two votes of No Confidence

Why the fuck did he send letters to Unionists ?

He only needed to ask the Greens and Ash Regan

Since 2014 it's been obvious that Unionists are only there to undermine Holyrood - what the fuck did he expect or was it a case of "look at me - i'm a good wee grown up parliamentarian"  ?

Despite Kate Forbes giving her support it is almost certain that not every SNP MSP will back him - it only takes one (looking at you Fergus)

Humza Yousaf has written to Scotland’s opposition parties asking them to find “common ground” ahead of confidence votes in his leadership.

The first minister is facing a serious challenge at Holyrood following the collapse of the SNP government’s power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens.

But his appeal was immediately rejected by the Scottish Conservatives as "humiliating and embarrassing" while Scottish Labour said it was an "act of desperation".

[Orraloon]

Fergus was one of the main people wanting him to ditch the greens. He will back Humza. Assuming a vote happens, that is.

Edited April 27 by Orraloon

[hampden_loon2878]

On 4/26/2024 at 10:45 PM, Toepoke said:

True, Humza may also go on to win the Conference.

Going by by-elections, he’s not Won a game all season, got a few thumping as well 

[DoonTheSlope]

12 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Going by by-elections, he’s not Won a game all season, got a few thumping as well 

It’s relegation form. His jackets on a shoogley.

The training camp in Doha, Qatar hasn’t had the effect he hoped it would

Or maybe it has considering those big fees to Iran and Hamas ☕️ 🐸 

[Malcolm]

Humza out, greens away back to obscurity…. Could it get any better!?

[Ally Bongo]

27 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

Humza out,

Not yet - fuckers like Leaky Liz Lloyd and Stewart McDonald are trying to claim back the narrative and prop him up - by attacking Alex Salmond and Alba

[Orraloon]

22 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Not yet - fuckers like Leaky Liz Lloyd and Stewart McDonald are trying to claim back the narrative and prop him up - by attacking Alex Salmond and Alba

I'm not sure how that is going to help their cause? Unless they think they can still persuade at least one of the Greens to bail him out?

[Ally Bongo]

16 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I'm not sure how that is going to help their cause? Unless they think they can still persuade at least one of the Greens to bail him out?

I'm starting to believe that the SNP are deliberately trying to make Alba being seen as the party that brought down the SNP Government

It is absolutely fucking madness

It is going to get to the point that most folk that desperately want Independence are going to come round to the idea of burning down the whole SNP, Government and Party is the only option

Edited April 28 by Ally Bongo

[Orraloon]

1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said:

I'm starting to believe that the SNP are deliberately trying to make Alba being seen as the party that brought down the SNP Government

It is absolutely fucking madness

It is going to get to the point that most folk that desperately want Independence are going to come round to the idea of burning down the whole SNP, Government and Party is the only option

Divide and rule. The number one ploy of the British establishment playbook.

[Malcolm]

This all started with Sturgeon and her stooges trying to get SAlmond stuck in jail.  Hopefully she might end up in the clink.

[Ally Bongo]

1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

Divide and rule. The number one ploy of the British establishment playbook.

Stewart McDonald is most definitely an MI5/MI6 plant along with Lloyd .... Wishart too probably although his motivation is keeping on the devolution gravy train

They are the most vocal anti Alba from within the SNP

 

[exile]

3 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

I'm starting to believe that the SNP are deliberately trying to make Alba being seen as the party that brought down the SNP Government

It is absolutely fucking madness

It is going to get to the point that most folk that desperately want Independence are going to come round to the idea of burning down the whole SNP, Government and Party is the only option

If an Alba MSP were to be the casting vote - or even just part of the vote - that brought down the SNP government, then  yes they would be seen as bringing down the SNP government.

Surely Alba themselves would see that, and so it's not at all certain they would actually do that, deal or no deal.

[exile]

It kind of works, but why?

The original ad was trying to stop people voting for the guy in the pocket, for fear they'd get the big bad bogey man. But that's not going to happen any time soon, is it?

[dipped flake]

3 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

I'm starting to believe that the SNP are deliberately trying to make Alba being seen as the party that brought down the SNP Government

It is absolutely fucking madness

It is going to get to the point that most folk that desperately want Independence are going to come round to the idea of burning down the whole SNP, Government and Party is the only option

Alba have been fighting against the SG from day one. They are a unionists dream. A party run by a rent a gob sex pest, paid by Russia. 

[Malcolm]

24 minutes ago, dipped flake said:

Alba have been fighting against the SG from day one. They are a unionists dream. A party run by a rent a gob sex pest, paid by Russia. 

As opposed to the snp who are promoting the policies of deviants.

[exile]

9 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

As opposed to the snp who are promoting the policies of deviants.

Who are you calling 'deviants'?

[Malcolm]

1 minute ago, exile said:

Who are you calling 'deviants'?

the greens

[exile]

1 minute ago, Malcolm said:

the greens

In what way are they deviants?

[dipped flake]

18 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

As opposed to the snp who are promoting the policies of deviants.

Ah, so you're a transphobic bigot. That explains a lot

[Ally Bongo]

58 minutes ago, dipped flake said:

Alba have been fighting against the SG from day one. They are a unionists dream. A party run by a rent a gob sex pest, paid by Russia. 

Read this 18 tweet drivel from "Councillor Graham Campbell" (the grifting boyfriend of SNP MP Anne McGlaughlin) then tell me that the SNP does not need burned to the ground. 

If you still doubt it's madness read Neil Mackay's expose of the Scottish Green Party that pushed the SNP into no return on the GRA, HPMA & the deposit scheme and claim they got fuck all out of the BHA

https://archive.ph/XhCI5

 

[Ally Bongo]

https://wingsoverscotland.com/marking-time/

We’re going to rule out Yousaf being smart enough to take our sensible advice from that article and trigger a general election immediately. That being so, these are the remaining options for what can unfold next week:

SCENARIO A

Humza Yousaf resigns before the votes of confidence (which will most likely be on Wednesday or Thursday) can take place.

What happens then?

Nothing much changes. The Tory vote of confidence in Yousaf will be cancelled, but the Labour one in the entire government will still go ahead and will be supported by the three Unionist parties.

Since Alba won’t have been able to secure any concessions that would justify them supporting the government, they will logically have to either back the motion or abstain, which has the same effect.

The same applies to the Greens: since they won’t know who the new FM will be* – it could be Kate Forbes, eek! – they can’t risk letting the government off the hook and will have to support the motion too.

RESULT: The government falls.

The government falling does not automatically trigger a general election. However, it would be effectively impossible to form a replacement government in 28 days, because neither the government nor the opposition can command any sort of working majority. So an election WOULD follow.

(Fun fact! Under the Scotland Act, an election this year would have no impact on the normal schedule of Holyrood elections, ie any government elected would only last until 2026, when we’d have to have another election.)

SCENARIO B

Humza Yousaf does NOT resign, and loses the Tory vote but survives the Labour one. (We’re not sure HOW he would, but it’s theoretically possible.)

What happens then?

Yousaf would come under intense pressure to resign, but under the law he doesn’t HAVE to. He can tell the SNP “Look, if I go the government collapses and you all lose your jobs”, and he can tell everyone else “Nyah nyah nyah I don’t care what you think, you all hate me anyway so who cares?”

RESULT: Business as usual. The government staggers on as a minority, with great difficulty, because the Greens won’t work with Yousaf and he’ll have to beg Labour and the Tories for votes to pass anything.

The reality of Scenario B is that unless Yousaf had somehow succeeded in winning back the Greens, another confidence vote would be called sooner rather than later and the whole mess of the last week would be repeated ad infinitum until one succeeded and an election was triggered. Nobody wants that, and the public would probably burn Holyrood to the ground.

SCENARIO C

Yousaf doesn’t resign, and WINS both votes.

What happens then?

Pigs fly, Hell freezes over, everyone marries a monkey’s auntie.

RESULT: See above – business as usual.

The only even theoretically plausible route to that outcome is if Yousaf makes some big concessions to Alba and somehow doesn’t trigger a rebellion in his own ranks by doing so (remember, a revolt of even one SNP MSP failing to back the government very likely causes its defeat), or if he makes no concessions but Alba then bottle out of bringing down an SNP government and back him anyway, AND no SNP MSPs fail to vote for the government for any reason.

SCENARIO D

Yousaf doesn’t resign, and loses both votes.

What happens then?

The entire Scottish Government has to resign, and as with Scenario A it’s highly unlikely that a new government could be formed within 28 days, so there’s an election and we don’t get to have a summer holiday.

All manner of zany capers both within and independent of these situations could and probably will transpire between now and Wednesday, but ultimately one of the four outcomes above will materialise. Wings’ view is that Scenario D is most likely, closely followed by A and then very distantly followed by B and C.

.

*Here’s a pertinent detail: outside of Parliamentary shenanigans it’s actually quite hard for the SNP to remove a leader except at annual conference, which is currently scheduled for 30 August-1 September. If Yousaf really decides to dig his heels in it could be October or November before the party has a new leader.

[Ally Bongo]

Addresses all the Independence parties acting like dicks whilst the Better Together machine is in full flow