Holyrood Elections 2021

[aaid]

Just now, Orraloon said:

ALBA National Candidate Launch Event next week.

It's on April 1st. 

Day after the nominations close so I suppose they had no option, but ripe for headline writers.

The timing of this puzzles me, if this had been planned for a while, why not give yourself a longer run in to build up some momentum.  I wouldn't be surprised if there hadn't been conversations happening for a while but this does all look to me like its being cobbled together at short notice.

You have to wonder what it was that happened - or more likely what didn't happen - that has spawned this.  There's only one possible thing it could be and it's got fuck all to do with a supermajority or any bollocks like that.

You could draw parallels to the Brexit Party and the 2019 election where they had a disruptive impact, but they'd been in existence for a lot longer - and were to all intents and purposes UKIP.  They were also well funded and had the party apparatus behind them.

There isn't any evidence so far of any of that.

[Orraloon]

8 minutes ago, aaid said:

Day after the nominations close so I suppose they had no option, but ripe for headline writers.

The timing of this puzzles me, if this had been planned for a while, why not give yourself a longer run in to build up some momentum.  I wouldn't be surprised if there hadn't been conversations happening for a while but this does all look to me like its being cobbled together at short notice.

You have to wonder what it was that happened - or more likely what didn't happen - that has spawned this.  There's only one possible thing it could be and it's got fuck all to do with a supermajority or any bollocks like that.

You could draw parallels to the Brexit Party and the 2019 election where they had a disruptive impact, but they'd been in existence for a lot longer - and were to all intents and purposes UKIP.  They were also well funded and had the party apparatus behind them.

There isn't any evidence so far of any of that.

It would be interesting to know who has got helping out in the background. With it being such short notice, some of his old buddies might be too busy to get involved.

 

[aaid]

7 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

It would be interesting to know who has got helping out in the background. With it being such short notice, some of his old buddies might be too busy to get involved.

 

Well you would think Tasmina would be involved somewhere along the line, that could be the fourth party she's been a member of, although maybe someone needs to keep the RT show warm.

I think "old" is the operative word here.  I'll be amazed if any of the candidates are younger than 40, I suspect most will be in their 50s and 60s.

[Caledonian Craig]

1 hour ago, aaid said:

Day after the nominations close so I suppose they had no option, but ripe for headline writers.

The timing of this puzzles me, if this had been planned for a while, why not give yourself a longer run in to build up some momentum.  I wouldn't be surprised if there hadn't been conversations happening for a while but this does all look to me like its being cobbled together at short notice.

You have to wonder what it was that happened - or more likely what didn't happen - that has spawned this.  There's only one possible thing it could be and it's got fuck all to do with a supermajority or any bollocks like that.

You could draw parallels to the Brexit Party and the 2019 election where they had a disruptive impact, but they'd been in existence for a lot longer - and were to all intents and purposes UKIP.  They were also well funded and had the party apparatus behind them.

There isn't any evidence so far of any of that.

Well I'd say it has certainly been in the planning stages for a few months. 

I say that is it would now perfectly explain why Salmond held fire during the recent hearing when asked if he thought Sturgeon should resign. Obviously, by then this party was already well into the planning stage and he knew they could not burn bridges completely with the SNP.

[aaid]

24 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Well I'd say it has certainly been in the planning stages for a few months. 

I say that is it would now perfectly explain why Salmond held fire during the recent hearing when asked if he thought Sturgeon should resign. Obviously, by then this party was already well into the planning stage and he knew they could not burn bridges completely with the SNP.

I'll spell it out for you.

I don't doubt that there's been conversations going on behind the scenes for several months between the various people involved, however the fact that some of the candidates already had recently been elected to positions within the SNP, either as candidates for the upcoming elections or internal party positions makes it pretty obvious that they haven't been planning a breakaway party or that if they had it was very much a "plan B".

You can add to that, the AFI announcing their candidates on Friday morning only to have to stand them down on Friday evening.

So far every person involved has a pretty obvious and major problem with Nicola Sturgeon, for some that's personal, for other's it policy, for a lot, it seems to be both.

It's pretty clear to me that their expectation was that as a result of the various inquiries she would have been forced to resign this week and that one of their cabal would be able to replace her as leader - any leadership election would have to be after the election - I suspect the expectation would be that that would be Salmond himself - although quite how that would work or even be considered as a possibility is beyond my ken.

So you have an attempted putsch that failed and not only failed but made the incumbent stronger and so the only option is to jump before you're pushed.

I can't see any other logical explanation.

[aaid]

In an election where digital campaigning will be more important than ever, looks like Alba need to seriously up their game - thread.
 

 

[AlfieMoon]

Full Alba list

I see Tasmina has managed to get yet another political party. Top of the list as well indeed. 
 

 

 

[scotlad]

23 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

Full Alba list

I see Tasmina has managed to get yet another political party. Top of the list as well indeed. 
 

 

 

Probably the least surprising news this year.

That lassie has been in mair parties than Paris Hilton.

[aaid]

21 minutes ago, scotlad said:

Probably the least surprising news this year.

That lassie has been in mair parties than Paris Hilton.

So essentially it's all Salmond's mates.

[Alibi]

Still got that ex-boxer on the list. That's not a good look.

[Toepoke]

5 minutes ago, Alibi said:

Still got that ex-boxer on the list. That's not a good look.

Especially for the two folk below him on the list, what a beemur. 

 

[aaid]

Poll just released by Survation, fieldword 29/30 March has Alba on 3 (three) percent.

Alex Salmond popularity of minus 71.

[scotlad]

23 hours ago, aaid said:

So essentially it's all Salmond's mates.

It's certainly a strange brew; a mixture of left-wingers, like George Kerevan and the Common Wheal group guy from the SNP, a couple of businessy types, a few cooncillors, a few disgruntled former SNP NEC board members, a couple of Salmond's mates, and a boxer.

I see, though, that they propose seeking EEA/EFTA membership (rather than going for EU membership straight away) with a referendum on possible EU membership at a later date.  That could square the circle for pro-EU and Eurosceptics within the Yes support.

Edited April 1, 2021 by scotlad
.

[exile]

10 minutes ago, aaid said:

Poll just released by Survation, fieldword 29/30 March has Alba on 3 (three) percent.

Alex Salmond popularity of minus 71.

I see the P&J say ‘It’s all over for Salmond’ and that Alba are 'doomed'

But I thought 3% was quite a good start, enough to get momentum going

However for now I see "Polling experts have said the figures translate to a narrow majority for the SNP on 66 MSPs, with Labour in second on 24, Tories on 21, Greens on 11 and Lib Dems on 7"

If I've done my sums right, that's a SNP majority of 3, and pro-indy majority of 25.

Edited April 1, 2021 by exile

[TDYER63]

6 minutes ago, scotlad said:

It's certainly a strange brew; a mixture of left-wingers, like George Kerevan and the Common Wheal group guy from the SNP, a couple of businessy types, a few cooncillors, a few disgruntled former SNP NEC board members, a couple of Salmond's mates, and a boxer.

 

😂

To be fair its probably more representative of the Scottish voting public than any of the current political parties . 

[aaid]

1 minute ago, exile said:

I see the P&J say ‘It’s all over for Salmond’ and that Alba are 'doomed'

But I thought 3% was quite a good start, enough to get momentum going

Come on.  Given the amount of "free" coverage they've had over the last week, they would've been expecting a much better showing than this.   

I would've thought the first few polls would have them around 8-10% just purely on the basis of the novelty of a new party.

The full data hasn't been released yet but from what has been trailed it looks like their fundamental problem is that they aren't cutting through to SNP 2019 voters in any sort of numbers.

Still its only one poll so need to see a few more to get some sort of sense.   The problem though is that for people to buy into their strategy such that it is, they need to actually look like they are going to pick up seats.  

[scotlad]

9 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

😂

To be fair its probably more representative of the Scottish voting public than any of the current political parties . 

Right enough.

[scotlad]

20 minutes ago, exile said:

I see the P&J say ‘It’s all over for Salmond’ and that Alba are 'doomed'

But I thought 3% was quite a good start, enough to get momentum going

However for now I see "Polling experts have said the figures translate to a narrow majority for the SNP on 66 MSPs, with Labour in second on 24, Tories on 21, Greens on 11 and Lib Dems on 7"

If I've done my sums right, that's a SNP majority of 3, and pro-indy majority of 25.

I think it's 65 seats you need to have a majority, so it'd be an SNP majority of 1.

Still, throw in the 11 Greens and it's starting to look a lot like an indy supermajority. 

[exile]

13 minutes ago, aaid said:

Come on.  Given the amount of "free" coverage they've had over the last week, they would've been expecting a much better showing than this.   

I would've thought the first few polls would have them around 8-10% just purely on the basis of the novelty of a new party.

The full data hasn't been released yet but from what has been trailed it looks like their fundamental problem is that they aren't cutting through to SNP 2019 voters in any sort of numbers.

Still its only one poll so need to see a few more to get some sort of sense.   The problem though is that for people to buy into their strategy such that it is, they need to actually look like they are going to pick up seats.  

Well, it's half full, half empty, surely? The ISP and All for Indy (or whatever it was called) have been around for months and barely registered in the polls. Alba has been around less than a week and already at 3%. That could be just enough to get a foothold, I think it's too early to call it 'over' (as some commentators have done).

But I agree it's about perception - is there a perception building that Salmond is already struggling - was that the point of the poll (get in early - the firledwork must have been done over just a few days) - as they say, to shape opinion?

[exile]

12 minutes ago, scotlad said:

I think it's 65 seats you need to have a majority, so it'd be an SNP majority of 1.

Still, throw in the 11 Greens and it's starting to look a lot like an indy supermajority. 

Yes, 65 is a majority of 1. But when you add them up (66 v 63), don't you get majority of 3? 🤔

Almost missed that Labour are in clear 2nd, and Greens accelerating away from the Libdems.

Edited April 1, 2021 by exile

[aaid]

39 minutes ago, exile said:

Well, it's half full, half empty, surely? The ISP and All for Indy (or whatever it was called) have been around for months and barely registered in the polls. Alba has been around less than a week and already at 3%. That could be just enough to get a foothold, I think it's too early to call it 'over' (as some commentators have done).

But I agree it's about perception - is there a perception building that Salmond is already struggling - was that the point of the poll (get in early - the firledwork must have been done over just a few days) - as they say, to shape opinion?

I wouldn't say that it's all over, but the big USP with Alba is - or is supposed to be - the leader himself, so comparisons against ISP aren't reasonable.  The fieldwork was done on 29/30 March which isn't an unusual timeframe.  With 5 weeks to go to the election, polls will be coming in thick and fast, I suspect that this was just the first to be released including them.  There'll be plenty over the next days and weeks to compare with, don't you worry about that.

 

[Orraloon]

13 hours ago, TDYER63 said:

😂

To be fair its probably more representative of the Scottish voting public than any of the current political parties . 

18 of the 32 are women as well, who'd have thunk it?

[Orraloon]

13 hours ago, exile said:

Yes, 65 is a majority of 1. But when you add them up (66 v 63), don't you get majority of 3? 🤔

 

Aye, that's correct. 

I still don't think SNP will get a majority. I don't think they would have got it without ALBA being on the scene either. I would be very happy if I was proved wrong though. 

 

[Orraloon]

14 hours ago, exile said:

I see the P&J say ‘It’s all over for Salmond’ and that Alba are 'doomed'

But I thought 3% was quite a good start, enough to get momentum going

However for now I see "Polling experts have said the figures translate to a narrow majority for the SNP on 66 MSPs, with Labour in second on 24, Tories on 21, Greens on 11 and Lib Dems on 7"

If I've done my sums right, that's a SNP majority of 3, and pro-indy majority of 25.

Is there any breakdown as to how many of those 66 are constituency and how many are regional seats?

[TDYER63]

2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

18 of the 32 are women as well, who'd have thunk it?

Perhaps so, but if 50+ % of the pro indy female voting public vote for Alba I will eat my polling card. 

Incidentally I am not a fan of artificially trying to even up the gender balance in politics. I absolutely agree with tackling issues that make it more difficult for women to enter politics, and that does need addressing,  but for me it should always be the best candidate irrespective of gender. Which quite often will be a woman, but I dont particularly like all female lists to achieve a balance.