Holyrood Elections 2021

[exile]

3 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Is there any breakdown as to how many of those 66 are constituency and how many are regional seats?

I haven't seen one (analysis behind paywall) but I wouldn't be suprised if the sampling was too small to accurately model regional variations, local factors, etc etc. It's probably a bit of a thumb in the wind, but it's the first one, so gets most attention.

[aaid]

5 minutes ago, exile said:

I haven't seen one (analysis behind paywall) but I wouldn't be suprised if the sampling was too small to accurately model regional variations, local factors, etc etc. It's probably a bit of a thumb in the wind, but it's the first one, so gets most attention.

It's not the first poll, far from it.  It's only the first one this week.

Projection of 66 seats is all constituency, no list.

SNP to win all constituencies with the exception of Orkney, Shetland, NE Fife, Edinburgh Western, Eastwood, Galloway and West Dumfries, Ettrick, etc.

[exile]

1 hour ago, TDYER63 said:

Incidentally I am not a fan of artificially trying to even up the gender balance in politics. I absolutely agree with tackling issues that make it more difficult for women to enter politics, and that does need addressing,  but for me it should always be the best candidate irrespective of gender. Which quite often will be a woman, but I dont particularly like all female lists to achieve a balance. 
 

 

As an aside, how do we judge the 'best candidate irrespective of gender' if the playing field for judging 'best' is not level towards women in the first place?

I think there's often a fear of equality measures 'artifically' over-promoting underqualified women, when you could turn it around it and say that conventional procedures are failing to recognise and reward women of high potential, and so over-promote less capable men.

[exile]

16 minutes ago, aaid said:

It's not the first poll, far from it.  It's only the first one this week.

The poll gets attention because it is the first poll to include Alba.

Edited April 2, 2021 by exile

[aaid]

7 minutes ago, exile said:

The poll gets attention because it is the first poll to include Alba.

The poll gets attention because it has ALBA at 3%.

 

[scotlad]

20 minutes ago, aaid said:

It's not the first poll, far from it.  It's only the first one this week.

Projection of 66 seats is all constituency, no list.

SNP to win all constituencies with the exception of Orkney, Shetland, NE Fife, Edinburgh Western, Eastwood, Galloway and West Dumfries, Ettrick, etc.

That's disappointing about Edinburgh Western, I'd love it - love it! - if the odious Alex Cole-Hamilton got the boot.

[weekevie04]

8 minutes ago, scotlad said:

That's disappointing about Edinburgh Western, I'd love it - love it! - if the odious Alex Cole-Hamilton got the boot.

He really is. 

I'd even take Jackson Carlaw hanging on to his seat over ACH losing his.

[TDYER63]

1 minute ago, exile said:

As an aside, how do we judge the 'best candidate irrespective of gender' if the playing field for judging 'best' is not level towards women in the first place?

I think there's often a fear of equality measures 'artifically' over-promoting underqualified women, when you could turn it around it and say that conventional procedures are failing to recognise and reward women of high potential, and so over-promote less capable men.

This is the problem, politics has historically been seen more of a mans world and coupled with women being seen historically as the stay at ‘childcare’ it has been very difficult for women to break through. 
This balance has improved dramatically in recent years  though, a lot of work has been done,  there are now more women out working and men at home . I feel  a more natural balance will appear in politics  as men and women's positions in society become more equal. It should then be fairly easy to choose the best candidate  in the same way it would in any other job. 

Very simplistic I know but I think the obstacles to women entering politics are at a far more fundamental  level and that is where the work needs done. 

I know it seems unfair but I dont think the way to undo a wrong , ie conventional measures failing to recognise and reward women of high potential , is to fast track the balance by introducing things like all women short lists. 

[scotlad]

2 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

He really is. 

I'd even take Jackson Carlaw hanging on to his seat over ACH losing his.

Oh, definitely.

Aside from the Baroness, I don't think there's an MSP from this last parliament that I detest more.

[aaid]

28 minutes ago, scotlad said:

That's disappointing about Edinburgh Western, I'd love it - love it! - if the odious Alex Cole-Hamilton got the boot.

Might yet happen.  The LIb Dems are polling slighty ahead of their constituency vote in 2016 and the SNP slightly behind, so on that basis they are predicted to hold on to the four constituency seats they have.

However, for Edinburgh Western and NE Fife, they only hold those seats by virtue of serious tactical voting which won't be picked up in the polls.

In 2016, they picked up 30k votes in the constituencies in MS&F but only 20k on the list.   Willie Rennie alone got 15k to win NE Fife, which suggests that 10k of those who voted for him voted for another party on the list.  In Lothians they got 29k across all constituencies, with Cole Hamilton getting just under 17k himself, not much less than the 18.5k they got on the list.

Now either NE Fife and Edinburgh West are really concentrated areas of Lib Dem supporters who forget to vote on the list or its a concentrated keep the SNP out vote.

 

[exile]

29 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

This is the problem, politics has historically been seen more of a mans world and coupled with women being seen historically as the stay at ‘childcare’ it has been very difficult for women to break through. 
This balance has improved dramatically in recent years  though, a lot of work has been done,  there are now more women out working and men at home . I feel  a more natural balance will appear in politics  as men and women's positions in society become more equal. It should then be fairly easy to choose the best candidate  in the same way it would in any other job. 

Very simplistic I know but I think the obstacles to women entering politics are at a far more fundamental  level and that is where the work needs done. 

I know it seems unfair but I dont think the way to undo a wrong , ie conventional measures failing to recognise and reward women of high potential , is to fast track the balance by introducing things like all women short lists. 

This could be good to return to debate later. For now I just play the devil's advocate:

What if we just changed to all women shortlists, accepting it was 'unfair', but the best we could do for now.

Do you think there would then be pressure for faster change, to find a proper solution once and for all? 😉

[TDYER63]

35 minutes ago, exile said:

This could be good to return to debate later. For now I just play the devil's advocate:

What if we just changed to all women shortlists, accepting it was 'unfair', but the best we could do for now.

Do you think there would then be pressure for faster change, to find a proper solution once and for all? 😉

😂 first of all any ‘debate’ with me is likely to be very short lived. I can be talked round pretty easily with any reasonable suggestion as has been demonstrated with my ongoing indecision on the list vote. I like to call it being ‘open minded’ 😁

Sometimes the nuclear option does get results right enough 😊

[TDYER63]

20 hours ago, aaid said:

Poll just released by Survation, fieldword 29/30 March has Alba on 3 (three) percent.

Alex Salmond popularity of minus 71.

Is Alex Salmonds popularity rating broken down into pro indy / unionist at all ? Minus 71 looks bad but its more important to know what the pro indy rating is . 

[Orraloon]

1 hour ago, scotlad said:

That's disappointing about Edinburgh Western, I'd love it - love it! - if the odious Alex Cole-Hamilton got the boot.

Is he not top of the regional list? So if he lost his constituency would he not just get in on the regional list anyway?

[Lamia]

With all the fanfare and supposed big news Alba supporters were trumpeting their list of candidates is totally underwhelming. I am gobsmacked their trumpeters on Twitter can't seem to see it. 

 

[Lamia]

 

 

[aaid]

2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Is he not top of the regional list? So if he lost his constituency would he not just get in on the regional list anyway?

I think where the Lib Dems are in that region it would be likely that they would pick up a list seat if they lost that one but it would by no means be a certainty.  In 2016, when it came down to the last count, Greens, Labour and SNP were all within 1500 votes of them.

 

[aaid]

1 hour ago, Lamia said:

 

 

It's Denise Findlay from the, erm, bloggers.

Is she the one that wanted Nicoia Sturgeon's head on a spike?

[Lamia]

2 minutes ago, aaid said:

It's Denise Findlay from the, erm, bloggers.

Is she the one that wanted Nicoia Sturgeon's head on a spike?

That is her! 

[Lamia]

I am not sure who is worse Denise Findlay or Mel! 😳

[aaid]

2 minutes ago, Lamia said:

That is her! 

Quite the charmer - I blocked her yonks ago, the Zoomer's Zoomer.

[Orraloon]

18 minutes ago, aaid said:

I think where the Lib Dems are in that region it would be likely that they would pick up a list seat if they lost that one but it would by no means be a certainty.  In 2016, when it came down to the last count, Greens, Labour and SNP were all within 1500 votes of them.

 

Is that with accounting for Lib dem votes being halfed because they won a constituency or have you already taken that into account?

[aaid]

46 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Is that with accounting for Lib dem votes being halfed because they won a constituency or have you already taken that into account?

That's taking into account the situation if they hadn't won Edinburgh West.  The Lib Dems got 18.5k list votes in total and had they not won that constituency, that would've seen them win a seat at count 7 - the last count.  At that stage, the Greens - who picked up the seat - had 17.25k and the SNP and Labour both had 17k, so it could've been tight, a thousand more votes for the Greens and a thousand less for the Lib Dems and we could've been spare Alex Cole Hamilton being an MSP.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him back in Holyrood but by the same token wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't.

He's a pretty unpleasant character and I suspect his behaviour during the Salmond inquiry wouldn't have helped him.  

That's the sort of stuff that you might not like but be prepared to overlook if you're a LIb Dem yourself, it might make some tactical voters think twice though.

From what I understand it was a pretty nasty fight there in 2016.  It was off the back of Michelle Thompson having all sorts of accusations flung at her - she was the MP for the corresponding WM seat - and I think ACH personally was throwing a lot of lies and mud around.  I know she still hasn't forgotten that.

[aaid]

3 hours ago, TDYER63 said:

Is Alex Salmonds popularity rating broken down into pro indy / unionist at all ? Minus 71 looks bad but its more important to know what the pro indy rating is . 

The data doesn't seem to have been released yet, but at those levels you are unpopular with pretty much everyone.

There was a poll back in January which showed similar results.  In that, he was massively unpopular amongst Unionists, >90%.  

Amongst SNP voters, I think he was understandably more popular - or to be exact less unpopular by while something like 20% of SNP voters found him favourable, 70% found him unfavourable and that's the big problem.

I'd imagine that the picture would be broadly similar in this poll.

[TDYER63]

15 hours ago, aaid said:

The data doesn't seem to have been released yet, but at those levels you are unpopular with pretty much everyone.

There was a poll back in January which showed similar results.  In that, he was massively unpopular amongst Unionists, >90%.  

Amongst SNP voters, I think he was understandably more popular - or to be exact less unpopular by while something like 20% of SNP voters found him favourable, 70% found him unfavourable and that's the big problem.

I'd imagine that the picture would be broadly similar in this poll.

Thanks. 
 Dumb and lazy question , if the 20% favourable SNP voters all voted Alba on the list,  is there any way of knowing if that would convert into more seats ?