Coronavirus

[ThistleWhistle]

11 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

It's just Germany so far who have said they want to see more data before they give it to over 65s.

It also worth remembering that although the EU are moaning like weans about shortage of supplies, they only actually approved it for use today. 

Up until a couple of days ago, over 90% of the doses administered in Scotland were of the PfizerBNT variety. It's only now we are starting to use the AZ one in much larger numbers. More data will come from England before us, as they have been using a higher percentage of the AZ vaccine so far. 

If I was over 65 (or any age really) I would be happy to get any of the vaccines currently approved.

 

Cheers mate - saw in terms of the data there was a massive variable/variant in terms of 'confidence' in timescales of measurement.  Any idea what that's about?  

[Orraloon]

9 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

Cheers mate - saw in terms of the data there was a massive variable/variant in terms of 'confidence' in timescales of measurement.  Any idea what that's about?  

Sorry, that bit doesn't really mean much to me. If you can point me in the direction of where it came from it might make more sense? I'm not promising anything though. Most of the statistical calculations are beyond me.

I haven't read much about the German regulators decision. But, I think it's to do with the numbers used in the phase 3 trials. In the Pfizer trials they had about 20% of the participants over 65. I think the Oxford trials only had about 10%? I also think the Oxford trials used less people overall. The results of the Oxford trials are quite difficult to read because of the way they have reported the results. They have data for sub trials in different countries and also the famous "half dose" trial. They then combine the data together to give headline figures. That doesn't mean the data isn't good, it just makes it difficult to follow. I also don't think Oxford have published all their information yet, but the regulators have access to all the data.

[Dave78]

2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

 

Some notes on specific countries:

Ireland uses confirmed + suspected deaths in their total, whereas all the other countries use confirmed only deaths (as far as I am aware). This makes Ireland’s death count look worse than it really is. 

The UK test total is made up of all antigen ‘processed’ tests (pillar 1 & 2). It doesn’t include ‘sent out’ tests, antibody tests (pillar 3), or surveillance tests (pillar 4). These are included in the total the UK gov puts out, which is why my number here is lower. You can see more about the types of tests here.

 

Hmm, i'm not sure that bit is accurate. I watch both countries closely, and since Christmas Ireland has had a higher prevalence of the virus than Scotland (on very similar daily test numbers), yet Ireland's death numbers have tracked below Scotland's.

I'm thinking either Irish hospitals are better able to keep critically ill patients alive, or there's some kind of difference in how deaths are recorded.

[Orraloon]

6 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

Hmm, i'm not sure that bit is accurate. I watch both countries closely, and since Christmas Ireland has had a higher prevalence of the virus than Scotland (on very similar daily test numbers), yet Ireland's death numbers have tracked below Scotland's.

I'm thinking either Irish hospitals are better able to keep critically ill patients alive, or there's some kind of difference in how deaths are recorded.

I think that's what he means. If Ireland counted it the same way that we do, the numbers in Ireland would be lower. I don't know for sure though. I didn't write that bit. It's a quote from his website. 

[Dave78]

24 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I think that's what he means. If Ireland counted it the same way that we do, the numbers in Ireland would be lower. I don't know for sure though. I didn't write that bit. It's a quote from his website. 

Yeah, i'm thinking it was accurate when he wrote it (at the beginning of the pandemic), but isn't now. I think the UK revised how they counted deaths, and that led to an increase. I remember the UK added a lot of deaths in one go, hence that big spike on the graph on April 29th:

 

 

[Orraloon]

More good news on vaccines. The more we have the better.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55857530

[Lamia]

3 hours ago, Orraloon said:

 

Up until a couple of days ago, over 90% of the doses administered in Scotland were of the PfizerBNT variety. It's only now we are starting to use the AZ one in much larger numbers. More data will come from England before us, as they have been using a higher percentage of the AZ vaccine so far. 

 

 

Oh I didn't realise that. Would that be why we have been increasing at a much slower rate that the other UK nations?

[Lamia]

On 1/25/2021 at 11:30 PM, irnbruman said:

I had all the covid symptoms last March before the lockdown. Never got tested just self isolated for 10 days

14 days then surely!

[Lamia]

Reckon I am going to end up with the shitty Johnson and Johnson vaccine!

The thing I don't get about the AstraZeneca one is why when Covid disproportionately adversely affects older people did the not really include older people in trials. Seems an odd thing to do.

[phart]

I think AZ was the one my gran got. The literature they left with her said it was.

[Lamia]

1 hour ago, phart said:

I think AZ was the one my gran got. The literature they left with her said it was.

Did it have a fuck off Union flag all over it?

[phart]

3 minutes ago, Lamia said:

Did it have a fuck off Union flag all over it?

haha, no just a bog standard medicine paper you see with all medicines.

 

[Grim Jim]

2 hours ago, Lamia said:

Reckon I am going to end up with the shitty Johnson and Johnson vaccine!

The thing I don't get about the AstraZeneca one is why when Covid disproportionately adversely affects older people did the not really include older people in trials. Seems an odd thing to do.

If you want my uneducated guess, I'd say testing on young'n's first was less risky.   If you don't then ask Dr Orraloon 😷

[bonzo]

I think older people are more likely to be on different medications which might react with vaccines under trial. Just my thinking, probably wrong.

[Orraloon]

3 hours ago, Lamia said:

Reckon I am going to end up with the shitty Johnson and Johnson vaccine!

The thing I don't get about the AstraZeneca one is why when Covid disproportionately adversely affects older people did the not really include older people in trials. Seems an odd thing to do.

The Janssen (J&J) one might turn out to be the best of the lot.

[Lamia]

22 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

The Janssen (J&J) one might turn out to be the best of the lot.

Well it might but it looks pretty shit on the trial data 

[Lamia]

1 hour ago, Grim Jim said:

If you want my uneducated guess, I'd say testing on young'n's first was less risky.   If you don't then ask Dr Orraloon 😷

But other vaccines have data on the older age groups 

[Orraloon]

16 hours ago, Lamia said:

Reckon I am going to end up with the shitty Johnson and Johnson vaccine!

The thing I don't get about the AstraZeneca one is why when Covid disproportionately adversely affects older people did the not really include older people in trials. Seems an odd thing to do.

9% of the UK participants were over 70.

I deliberately call them the "Oxford" trials because AZ weren't involved at the time the trials were set up. AZ have publically and very diplomatically distanced themselves from the trials when they said something like "If we had been doing the trials, we would have done them differently". That was more to do with the half dose issue though. 

 

[biffer]

The EU still desperately trying to deflect attention from the fact they seem to have made a horlicks of vaccine procurement. Took too long, quibbled about costs, didn’t order enough across the piece to enable themselves to ensure they could run up to speed quickly, then threw the toys out of the pram when things didn’t go exactly as they wanted.

The UK government, who have buggered up the response to most things in this pandemic with waffle, delay and concentrating on what looks best, and who I loathe with a passion, have done the vaccine procurement very well, fair play to them. Good spread of suppliers to ensure that whatever succeeded in trials and was available quickly would be available to the NHS, didn’t quibble over costs, invested in getting suppliers in the position to scale up, assisted where they could when problems arose and didn’t bitch about it when volumes were reduced in the delivery programme. 
 

Edit - also, in the medium term, the UK will end up making a lot of friends through this. Already committed money to Covax to purchase vaccines for developing countries, and the UK will have a surplus which, if we have any sense, will direct the surplus into Covax to increase their supply.

Edited January 30, 2021 by biffer

[phart]

3 minutes ago, biffer said:

The EU still desperately trying to deflect attention from the fact they seem to have made a horlicks of vaccine procurement. Took too long, quibbled about costs, didn’t order enough across the piece to enable themselves to ensure they could run up to speed quickly, then threw the toys out of the pram when things didn’t go exactly as they wanted.

The UK government, who have buggered up the response to most things in this pandemic with waffle, delay and concentrating on what looks best, and who I loathe with a passion, have done the vaccine procurement very well, fair play to them. Good spread of suppliers to ensure that whatever succeeded in trials and was available quickly would be available to the NHS, didn’t quibble over costs, invested in getting suppliers in the position to scale up, assisted where they could when problems arose and didn’t bitch about it when volumes were reduced in the delivery programme. 

I agree with this assessment.

The one thing we haven't fucked up is the vaccine procurement. Went in heavy with loads of different manafacturers financed it early and in large amounts.

[slasher]

My cousin tested positive for Covid on Monday. He's 55 doesn't drink much, never smoked and other than carrying a little middle age timber pretty fit and healthy. 

On Thursday night he was rushed into hospital with O2 level dangerously low. He's been unconscious and on a ventilator ever since and docs say the next 24 hours will be crucial. 

Not looking for sympathy, I merely post to make people aware if any of you, like me, have been guilty of dropping your guard lately. Keep following the guidance troops! 

[Toepoke]

1 hour ago, phart said:

I agree with this assessment.

The one thing we haven't fucked up is the vaccine procurement. Went in heavy with loads of different manafacturers financed it early and in large amounts.

Possibly out of fear of how much more difficult it would have become after Brexit?

 

[Orraloon]

39 minutes ago, slasher said:

My cousin tested positive for Covid on Monday. He's 55 doesn't drink much, never smoked and other than carrying a little middle age timber pretty fit and healthy. 

On Thursday night he was rushed into hospital with O2 level dangerously low. He's been unconscious and on a ventilator ever since and docs say the next 24 hours will be crucial. 

Not looking for sympathy, I merely post to make people aware if any of you, like me, have been guilty of dropping your guard lately. Keep following the guidance troops! 

Aye, too many folk getting complacent. Far too many people can't seem to get their head round how bad it is, until it happens to themselves or somebody close to them.

[Lamia]

19 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Aye, too many folk getting complacent. Far too many people can't seem to get their head round how bad it is, until it happens to themselves or somebody close to them.

I am honestly utterly baffled by this. I luckily haven't been directly affected but I am acutely aware of the dangers and must be one of the few that hasn't once dropped their guard mainly because I have become obsessive compulsive and agoraphobic 🤨 I honestly can't see how I am ever going to be comfortable in close company again 😪

[biffer]

1 hour ago, Toepoke said:

Possibly out of fear of how much more difficult it would have become after Brexit?

 

Nah, don’t think so. Regardless of Brexit this was a sooner the better scenario, so trying to find an excuse to criticise them for something they’ve actually done well isn’t necessary. They’re a big enough shower of cunts that it’s not going to make a difference to my opinion.