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Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15


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3 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Decided to have a look at the 2017 manifesto to see what exactly they said on independence and boy was it one shit read (generally). The SNP do seem to be going down the whole identity politics route. Good luck with that. Plus very easy to see why every right leaning voter who may have supported them deserted them at this election. Seems like they are more anti tory than having any kind of clear vision for themselves. It is all 'supporting' 'protecting' and 'safeguarding'. Plus a bunch of virtue signalling pish most of it without any real substance. Reminds of the democrats in the US right now. Lack of leadership coming through and lack of real message anymore. Independence has left a void that cannot be replaced. NS has definitely taken the party in the wrong direction IMHO. We are starting to see the dividends of it and I expect it will accelerate now (and I welcome it). 

Agree with a lot of that.

Someone wrote on here recently that the SNP have attracted socialists as opposed to creating nationalists and that could be pretty close to the truth.

The centre right electorate is far larger in Scotland than many believe - a fair chunk of those would sympathetic to independence.

Ultimately, Yes voters from 2014 need to ask themselves which would the they prefer to live in - an independent Scotland with Ruth Davidson as PM or a UK led by Jeremy Corbyn. Only when the majority would prefer the former is independence a certainty.

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3 minutes ago, thplinth said:

The 2017 Manifesto hardly mentions independence and when it does it is only in reference to the referendum, there is zero attempt to make the case for it, none that I noticed.

The 2011 one on the page entitled 'Independence' has the opening paragraph...

Independence is about making Scotland more successful. At its
most basic, it is the ability to take our own decisions, in the
same way as other countries. Scotland is a society and a nation.
No one cares more about Scotland’s success than the people
who live here and that, ultimately, is why independence is the
best choice for our future.

Now even then this was near the end on page 28. FFS what is that all about...

This needs to be on page 1 as the SNP's core goal now and forfhuckingever. A vote for the SNP is primarily a vote in support of this goal, make it loud and clear. No apologies, no fhucking about and a big fhuck off to any khunt who does not like it. Start arguing the case for self determination, get away from this EU return argument which is actually an argument against self determination. You are not going to fool people with that argument and it was very grating seeing the SNP and the anti YES opposition essentially switch argumentative hats during the Brexit campaigns. It was borderline bizarre.

Jim Fairlie was right in a lot of the things he was saying on here years ago. Independence is not just a meaningless banner it actually has to deliver the reins to us not move them from Westminster to Brussels. 

See what our true support is and then take it from there building from a real foundation this time. It is a long way away sadly as I think the SNP are going in the opposite direction.

Independence in the EU is the biggest crock of shite, and I'll admit to saying that in 2014. 

Talk to the vast majority of SNP / independence voters and they'll mention austerity, why then you'd want to be in the EU. Guess that's something that politicians and the media don't talk about much, if at all. 

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3 hours ago, thplinth said:

:lol: He seems to be have gone into tit overdrive after his party ruined the country. Combined income, no mortgage, 4 bedrooms... oh reeeally. FFS what a clown. Just surprised he managed to avoid the hilarious staccato sentences that in no way make him look like a berk. Seems absolutely delighted at the tories failure for some reason... wonder what it could be. :lol:

Personally I am really looking forward to the next London riots... then we will get to see the full savagery of the tory cuts on the police and fire service. Would'nt want to be living there when it inevitably kicks off again. 

If having a 4 bedroom house is a moral black eye, Alan must be drenched in sin every time he looks to his string pullers.

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37 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Nicely put...

If you compare the 2011 Manifesto and the 2017 the gulf in quality is very evident. Whoever produced that 2017 one need the boot as it is shocking in comparison, unfocused, waffly, repetitive with a blah blah feeling after page 1 and generally piss poor (ok may have been at short notice but still...). It lost a lot of common sense structure v 2011 and it feels chaotic. Even the pictures adorning it feel 'diversity' tick box formulaic. The whole anti tory stuff running all the way through the 2017 one must have gifted them a large amount of votes, totally stupid defining yourself as the protector against another party, just asking for it. Thankfully most folk don't read them but I think it reveals a loss of quality in the SNP decision making IMHO. 

2017

2011

edit: I mean FFS it does not even have a table of contents, trying to be too clever and instead ending up with a dogs dinner which is all over the place.

Are you comparing a Westminster general election manifesto with a Holyrood election manifesto?

 

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It's the same electorate mostly. Same folk you're addressing, what parliament is pretty irrelevant. Your manifesto talks to the people not the parliament and in both cases they remain vastly the same folk.

Edited by phart
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7 minutes ago, phart said:

It's the same electorate mostly. Same folk you're addressing, what parliament is pretty irrelevant. Your manifesto talks to the people not the parliament and in both cases they remain vastly the same folk.

Yes, but there will be a different emphasis on independence. 

 

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15 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Oh gee another great Orraloon point.

2015 was a s bad as 2017 but they could have probably written any old guff and still ended up with 56 seats. 

 

I was just wondering if you had done it deliberately or got the dates mixed up. I haven't read them, obviously. As you said, not many folk do.

I wasn't intending to have a go at you. I was just interested in why you hadn't compared two general election manifestos.

 

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24 minutes ago, phart said:

It's the same electorate mostly. Same folk you're addressing, what parliament is pretty irrelevant. Your manifesto talks to the people not the parliament and in both cases they remain vastly the same folk.

Yes, but the issues you fight the election on are different in each case because of the different legislative competencies of each parliament and so the content of the manifestos are naturally different.  

That is unless you fight a Westminster election primarily on devolved issues like the Tories and Labour just did in Scotland. 

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28 minutes ago, aaid said:

Yes, but the issues you fight the election on are different in each case because of the different legislative competencies of each parliament and so the content of the manifestos are naturally different.  

That is unless you fight a Westminster election primarily on devolved issues like the Tories and Labour just did in Scotland. 

The issues are picked. As you demonstrate yourself. 

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Things have changed in that time though. Pre-the last referendum there was a build up of a big push for independence because the referendum was the goal. After the no vote there was nothing because we had our chance and blew it basically. Everywhere it was thought it had been put to bed with no more indyrefs anywhere on the horizon until last year's surprise result in the Brexit vote suddenly changed things again. That is how I see it anyway. All calls for independence had to be tempered after the deflating defeat somewhat and it was.

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Has anyone seen the scottish survation sub sample results for uk voting intentions? ? I know its a sub sample but having the torys on 42% to the snp's 29% yes it will nit be to accurate but still sub samples can be an indication 

Edited by hampden_loon2878
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2 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Has anyone seen the scottish survation sub sample results for uk voting intentions? ? I know its a sub sample but having the torys on 42% to the snp's 29% yes it will nit be to accurate but still sub samples can be an indication 

One of the questions they always ask is how did you vote at the last election, ie three weeks ago.  That sample has way more people who voted Tory in it than actually voted Tory, so it's skewed.

There was another poll out today that had a subsample that showed SNP on  38%, Lab on 28% and Tories on 27%.

You'll notice that the UK wide polls are still all over the place. 

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The SNP haven't done nearly enough whilst in power to be untouchable.

I've voted  SNP all my days and I'm even disappointed with them. They've taken votes for granted, same way that Labour did for years.

There's a massive % of SNP voters from 2015/2017 who are soft voters. They can and will change on a whim. The slump in education is one factor.

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35 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said:

The SNP haven't done nearly enough whilst in power to be untouchable.

I've voted  SNP all my days and I'm even disappointed with them. They've taken votes for granted, same way that Labour did for years.

There's a massive % of SNP voters from 2015/2017 who are soft voters. They can and will change on a whim. The slump in education is one factor.

You do know that any Scottish Government is limited to what it can actually do ?

And this education "slump" is a convenient stick to beat the SNP based on one widely criticised method of assessing and comparing performance

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44 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

You do know that any Scottish Government is limited to what it can actually do ?

 

Yes, but thanks for informing me.

44 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

 

And this education "slump" is a convenient stick to beat the SNP based on one widely criticised method of assessing and comparing performance

Stick your head in the sand all you want, it's been over exaggerated but it's a problem. Unfortunately stuff like this loses votes.

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1 hour ago, Squirrelhumper said:

Yes, but thanks for informing me.

 

Lets hear some of the things then (within reason) you would like them to do that would satisfy you

Edited by Ally Bongo
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6 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Another you gov sub sample have Labour ut ahead in Scotland,, very grim and worrying,, can labour really mount a serious comeback in Scotland?  

With Corbyn as leader maybe. Safe to say any upsurge in support isn't down to ScottIsh Labour.

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17 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

With Corbyn as leader maybe. Safe to say any upsurge in support isn't down to ScottIsh Labour.

It would be interesting to see if there is much difference between Westminster to holyrood voting intentions,, i dare say it will settle out snp 35 labour 30 and tory 25,,, those labour voters who went tory will no doubt find yheir way "home"

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12 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

It would be interesting to see if there is much difference between Westminster to holyrood voting intentions,, i dare say it will settle out snp 35 labour 30 and tory 25,,, those labour voters who went tory will no doubt find yheir way "home"

I'd say a lot of those ex Labour voters won't vote for the "IRA supporter Corbyn".

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Colonel Ruth is obviously rattled.  Made a big deal about going off on holiday for two weeks and comes out today with a 36 tweet thread ranting about Douglas Chapman (SNP MP) asking a commons question about her being made honorary Colonel.   Must have touched a raw nerve there. 

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22 hours ago, Squirrelhumper said:

The SNP haven't done nearly enough whilst in power to be untouchable.

I've voted  SNP all my days and I'm even disappointed with them. They've taken votes for granted, same way that Labour did for years.

There's a massive % of SNP voters from 2015/2017 who are soft voters. They can and will change on a whim. The slump in education is one factor.

There is no slump in education. It's a heap of nonsense.

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