Bbc Exit Poll

[wheres the pies]

Just seen another poll with the Tories on 280 and Labour on 274. Maybe a twist or two to come yet.

Hope your correct what poll was that ?

[redstevie007]

Hope your correct what poll was that ?

Electoral Calculus. No idea how accurate it is though, sorry

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Edited May 7, 2015 by redstevie007

[Dave78]

Based on that exit poll, i hope the SNP actually concede some seats to Labour, as it's the only way we'd have any influence in who forms the government.

In a rare moment of clarity through my celebratory alcohol induced haze, i realised that my post above was invalid absolute pish.

[saintlyscot]

In a rare moment of clarity through my celebratory alcohol induced haze, i realised that my post above was invalid absolute pish.

Understandable!

[Orraloon]

In a rare moment of clarity through my celebratory alcohol induced haze, i realised that my post above was invalid absolute pish.

I hope you appreciate the fact that we didn't rip the pish out of because of it. Mind you, I think that was because we didn't have a fukin clue whit you were on aboot.

[Dave78]

I hope you appreciate the fact that we didn't rip the pish out of because of it. Mind you, I think that was because we didn't have a fukin clue whit you were on aboot.

[Parklife]

What a shite exit poll.

Only predicted 58 seats for the SNP. Useless bastards.

[saintlyscot]

My God. How did that hapen? ? No wonder he hot elected a decent guy!!

[Guest flumax]

Snp utter failure tonight. Didn't hit the exit poll

[exile]

Just catching up. Has anyone seen any explanation of how the polls got it so wrong?

- while the exit poll was so right? (it being the same pollsters)?

Were there shy SNP voters too?

[DonnyTJS]

Just catching up. Has anyone seen any explanation of how the polls got it so wrong?

- while the exit poll was so right? (it being the same pollsters)?

Were there shy SNP voters too?

There's this, but it's still early days.

I suppose an exit poll is a very different methodology - and that underestimated the Conservative total by 15 seats.

[Ally Bongo]

To be fair, as i have said about 3 times now, the postal vote rumours suggested the exact same thing nearly 2 weeks ago

It forecasted the Labour vote in England had collapsed and that Labour was still 50/50 in 20 Scottish seats

What that didnt take into account was the likely on the day SNP surge which wiped out the postal vote equality in those seats

Labour in England was never going to have that

[exile]

To be fair, as i have said about 3 times now, the postal vote rumours suggested the exact same thing nearly 2 weeks ago

It forecasted the Labour vote in England had collapsed and that Labour was still 50/50 in 20 Scottish seats

What that didnt take into account was the likely on the day SNP surge which wiped out the postal vote equality in those seats

Labour in England was never going to have that

Ok so maybe the question is, if pollsters/pundits knew that about postl vote rumours, why was word not being spread around? Or was it just that people ignored them as rumours (like from Labour Uncut website)?

[exile]

There's this, but it's still early days.

I suppose an exit poll is a very different methodology - and that underestimated the Conservative total by 15 seats.

Thanks.

By the way did Paddy Ashdown eat his hat yet?

[Ally Bongo]

Ok so maybe the question is, if pollsters/pundits knew that about postl vote rumours, why was word not being spread around? Or was it just that people ignored them as rumours (like from Labour Uncut website)?

it's a good question

At 1 minute past 10 the exit polls suggested the normal polls were way off - yet still YouGov and the likes said that they were right

It was the same as the referendum - Shortly after 10pm the pollsters announced Yes had won by a bigger margin than the latest polls had suggested (but agreed with the polls 3-4 weeks beforehand)

Normally you could look at the bookies odds but they were off as well and mirrored the Yougov forecast

Id like to know the answer too

[Bristolhibby]

it's a good question

At 1 minute past 10 the exit polls suggested the normal polls were way off - yet still YouGov and the likes said that they were right

It was the same as the referendum - Shortly after 10pm the pollsters announced Yes had won by a bigger margin than the latest polls had suggested (but agreed with the polls 3-4 weeks beforehand)

Normally you could look at the bookies odds but they were off as well and mirrored the Yougov forecast

Id like to know the answer too

It's simple. People lie to pollsters. Especially if they are embarrassed or shamed by their choice.

Happened in 92, in the refrendum and yesterday.

Not wanting to be decisive, but it's easy to wring your hands and say "I'm all right Jack, I'll stick with the devil I know", on your own in the Polling booth.

Quite another thing to admit it to somebody on the phone or online. It's basically admitting you are a selfish non risk taker. And there's nothing to crow about being that.

Shy-Torys (1992 & 2015)

Silent No's 2014

Essentially the same people.

J

[Ally Bongo]

It's a good theory BH if the questions the pollsters ask is only a straight out who are you voting for

But they dont

They ask other questions to try and get a better idea of who someone is likely to vote for

But i dare say a good part of the anomoly is fibbers

Edited May 8, 2015 by Ally Bongo

[DonnyTJS]

Aye, it's not that simple. If it were, why are exit polls that much more accurate when, as I understand it, people are asked how they just voted face to face? It may be a contributory factor, but I suspect there are systemic issues that are at least as significant - the nature of the questions as AB says, but also the web- and phone-based nature of the collection.

[Dave78]

Aye, it's not that simple. If it were, why are exit polls that much more accurate when, as I understand it, people are asked how they just voted face to face? It may be a contributory factor, but I suspect there are systemic issues that are at least as significant - the nature of the questions as AB says, but also the web- and phone-based nature of the collection.

Peter Kellner explained how they do the exit polls on the BBC coverage last night. Voters are given a similar ballot paper (with the same candidates as the real one) which they complete after placing their real vote. They can do it anonymously, so the exit poll negates the 'shy Tory' factor.

[Orraloon]

Peter Kellner explained how they do the exit polls on the BBC coverage last night. Voters are given a similar ballot paper (with the same candidates as the real one) which they complete after placing their real vote. They can do it anonymously, so the exit poll negates the 'shy Tory' factor.

If I was asked, I would lie.I would have thought that most normal folk would.

[DonnyTJS]

Peter Kellner explained how they do the exit polls on the BBC coverage last night. Voters are given a similar ballot paper (with the same candidates as the real one) which they complete after placing their real vote. They can do it anonymously, so the exit poll negates the 'shy Tory' factor.

Ok. Still doesn't make sense to me though. Aren't those questioned in opinion polls generally volunteers? Why would they put themselves forward if they're embarrassed by their voting intentions?

Edit: Anyroad, I clearly know nowt about this - where's Clyde1998?

Edited May 8, 2015 by DonnyTJS

[Ally Bongo]

As Donny says

Why would someone who lies doing an anonymous phone poll tell the truth when asked in question after they have voted ?

There is more to this

Edited May 8, 2015 by Ally Bongo

[exile]

I see Janet Daley thinks there could be (in effect) shy SNP votes ashamed to admit being on same side as the 'thuggish intimidation' of their protestors

[aaid]

Presumably with exit polls they don't do any form of weighting, or if they do it's less impactful.

After all, someone is telling you exactly how they voted you don't have to try and predict how likely they are to vote.

I think this might explain why the polls in Scotland were pretty much on the button compared to the actual results, SNP getting 50% of the vote but in England they were further off.

In Scotland you would have had the benefit of being able to weight both on referendum vote and recalled 2011 Holyrood vote.

In England you only had the 2010 vote to weight on and UKIP was a completely different proposition then.

[brant grebner]

By the way did Paddy Ashdown eat his hat yet?

No.

And to justify the license fee, it should be prime time Saturday night viewing for his head ware munching and the hat should be made entirely of AIDS.

Double sub Saharan AIDS