Polls - Page 42 - Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere - Tartan Army Message Board Jump to content

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Sorry should have quoted what I was replying to. It was Kent as a reply to the chap who said the folk nocking his door for labour had English accents and I was just pointing out that it is not just Scots who vote SNP and support indy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Read the Wikipedia article on the 1992 election where poll after opinion poll had Kinnock in the lead, and we all know how that panned out.

That said, Kinnock didn't have such big leads such as the SNP have been enjoying. Still niggles away a wee bit that the same scenario could happen here. Maybe a wee bit of last minute jitters as Thursday looms? Who knows.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Read the Wikipedia article on the 1992 election where poll after opinion poll had Kinnock in the lead, and we all know how that panned out.

Kinnock had a big triumphalist rally a week before the election in front of 10,000 Labour members where they introduced the shadow cabinet as future ministers for this & that

There is some debate to whether that made such a difference to the polls or whether the pollster tricksters were at work

I think nowadays it wouldnt be worth it for pollsters to get it so badly wrong ...but yes im still nervous

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Having hit 59 seat poll, there is now no chance of the SNP exceeding media expectation on election night. Anything less than 45% of the vote will be seen as a 'collapse' and anything short of 30 seats will be seen as 'disappointing'. Every 'Labour Hold' will be hailed as a brave rearguard victory by Murphy; every seat by the Tories or Lib Dems will be a triumph, a doughty blow against a one-party state.

But still,... all to play for.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm now seeing long term suspected Tory no voting traditional 'British' well educated middle class university types on facebook hint that they're voting SNP. I think the pigs have actually now taken off and are in full flight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm now seeing long term suspected Tory no voting traditional 'British' well educated middle class university types on facebook hint that they're voting SNP. I think the pigs have actually now taken off and are in full flight.

That might not actually be as far fetched as you think

There actually was a Conservatives for Independence group

The Wealthy Nation group led by historian Michael Fry supported Independence

Also East Renfrewshire was previously a Tory seat and they may do the opposite & vote SNP to stop Murphy winning despite polls suggesting otherwise

Obviously the angle of stopping Labour getting an outright majority by voting SNP and costing Labour seats wont apply and never has in Scotland

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Exit polls have been fairly accurate in recent elections

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They have, but they're only polling very few Scottish seats. They could be completely wrong about the Scotland result.

true

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think Sturgeon has made her stance on the Tories crystal clear

Anyway i still think the Tories will make a mockery of the polling down south

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm now seeing long term suspected Tory no voting traditional 'British' well educated middle class university types on facebook hint that they're voting SNP. I think the pigs have actually now taken off and are in full flight.

Doesn't surprise me in the slightest. In WM elections I think there's a fair chance that a lot of Scottish Tories vote SNP. AS I've mentioned with a decent SNP candidate in my area, that is precisely what I would have done (as I have done in the past)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...



×
×
  • Create New...