mariokempes56 Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Ipsos called me last week. Oddest question was " you know who this guy scunnered" is ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wheres the pies Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Ipsos called me last week. Oddest question was " you know who this guy scunnered" is ? Surely no Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maq Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Love this poll: @GrayInGlasgow: New poll: "If Miliband rules UK with Sturgeon, should England break away from Scotland?" Yes 44%, No 31%, Unsure 25%. #GE15 via @Survation Hopefully the good old Nigel's will vote Independence upon us, seeing as we're too feart! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bannannan Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Love this poll: @GrayInGlasgow: New poll: "If Miliband rules UK with Sturgeon, should England break away from Scotland?" Yes 44%, No 31%, Unsure 25%. #GE15 via @Survation Hopefully the good old Nigel's will vote Independence upon us, seeing as we're too feart! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FuNsTeR Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 New PanelBase poll for the Times SNP 48% +3 LAB 27% -2 CON 16% LD 4% http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/article1548937.ece Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 SNP down in one of the Guardian polls and one of Curtice's in Scotland on Sunday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotlad Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 SNP down in one of the Guardian polls and one of Curtice's in Scotland on Sunday By how much? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 By how much? Scotland on Sunday has SNP down 1% votes leading to drop of 4 seats to 47: SNP 47 Lab 8 LD 3 Con 1 Across UK Guardian has SNP on 53 seats, down 2 from last week, but level with their baseline date of March 28. Over the same period Labour gained 4 across UK, and Tories down 5. Current prediction Labour 273 Conservative 272 SNP 53 LibDem 27 http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-poll-projection "If no party secures a majority, an alliance of more than 322 MPs could probably survive a confidence vote" - only Lab+SNP combination would do this. Even if they tried COn+LD+UKIP+DUP it wouldn't be enough. On current polling showings. However remember as always to factor in: - Margin of error - Undecideds - The silent majority - Shy Tories - Shy LibDems - Shy Labour - Cybernats signing up multiple accounts to polling agencies (alleged) - Incumbent MP local factor advantage - Tactical voting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted April 26, 2015 Author Share Posted April 26, 2015 From ScotGoesPop: Rolfe mentioned on the previous thread that she had been approached at a street stall by someone who said they work for a polling company, and who claimed that a poll showing a further increase in the SNP lead was being sat on until the start of the week. The person mentioned that it was in Carlops (Scottish Borders, near the Midlothian border) - Ipsos Mori's call centre is in Edinburgh. This could mean it's the Ipsos Mori/STV poll (or it could be the well overdue Survation/Record poll). The person hinted at a 2 point gain in the SNP lead - if it's Ipsos Mori, then the SNP would have a 30% lead over Labour; if it's Survation, then the SNP would have a 23% lead over Labour. Assuming the information he's been told is correct... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted April 26, 2015 Author Share Posted April 26, 2015 Scotland on Sunday has SNP down 1% votes leading to drop of 4 seats to 47: SNP 47 Lab 8 LD 3 Con 1 Scotland on Sunday were only using Sub-sample data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Scotland on Sunday were only using Sub-sample data. OK, we are relying on experts to alert us to these things! Meanwhile the Guardian one says "Our model takes in all published constituency-level polls, UK-wide polls and polling conducted in the nations, and projects the result in each of the 650 Westminster constituencies using an adjusted average." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted April 26, 2015 Author Share Posted April 26, 2015 OK, we are relying on experts to alert us to these things! Meanwhile the Guardian one says "Our model takes in all published constituency-level polls, UK-wide polls and polling conducted in the nations, and projects the result in each of the 650 Westminster constituencies using an adjusted average." The Guardian model looks pretty accurate. SoS are getting desperate, if they're taking averages of sub-samples to say that the SNP are collapsing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irnbruman Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 wtf is a sub-sample? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 The Guardian model looks pretty accurate. SoS are getting desperate, if they're taking averages of sub-samples to say that the SNP are collapsing... SoS main editorial channelling Gordon Brown and his crafty use of YouTube clips to catch out Mhairi Black, and latching on to the George Square supporters' signing of a declaration of unilateral independence. In the second editorial slot, they had something about championing the bagpipes against attack from Boris Johnston. To be honest I stopped reading at that point. People talk of shortbread-tin nationalism, but it seems cultural nationalism and patriotism is OK for the SoS (and what's wrong with shortbread tins, after all?) - just anything other than actual political nationalism. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted April 26, 2015 Author Share Posted April 26, 2015 (edited) wtf is a sub-sample? In UK polling - companies put a column to show how people in Scotland said they would vote - usually around 100 people. However, it's not weighted for Scotland - so it sometimes isn't very accurate. Full-scale (1,000+ people asked) for Scotland are the most accurate. Edited April 26, 2015 by Clyde1998 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irnbruman Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Cheers Clyde - scuse my ignorance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShedTA Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Got a mail off a boy in the Neil hay campaign - says there is a lot more behind the dirt that was dug up on him but they are just letting it go just to get on with the campaign, but are pretty pissed off about it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotlad Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Scotland on Sunday has SNP down 1% votes leading to drop of 4 seats to 47: SNP 47 Lab 8 LD 3 Con 1 Across UK Guardian has SNP on 53 seats, down 2 from last week, but level with their baseline date of March 28. Over the same period Labour gained 4 across UK, and Tories down 5. Current prediction Labour 273 Conservative 272 SNP 53 LibDem 27 http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-poll-projection "If no party secures a majority, an alliance of more than 322 MPs could probably survive a confidence vote" - only Lab+SNP combination would do this. Even if they tried COn+LD+UKIP+DUP it wouldn't be enough. On current polling showings. However remember as always to factor in: - Margin of error - Undecideds - The silent majority - Shy Tories - Shy LibDems - Shy Labour - Cybernats signing up multiple accounts to polling agencies (alleged) - Incumbent MP local factor advantage - Tactical voting Cheers for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Not a poll, but interesting none the less... Only the conservatives have received more in donations from those on the Sunday Times Rich List than Scotland's anti establishment party. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dillinger Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Fair enough where Brian Souter is concerned but that'll be from the Weirs mostly. Hardly the "establishment" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 (edited) Not a poll, but interesting none the less... Only the conservatives have received more in donations from those on the Sunday Times Rich List than Scotland's anti establishment party. I wonder if that includes the YES campaign Money... and they have lumped it into the SNP... I am not aware of any large donations to the snp , xcept the 1 from the Weir's there is of course 110,000 members contributing around £2 a month Edited April 26, 2015 by stocky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 I wonder if that includes the YES campaign Money... and they have lumped it into the SNP... I am not aware of any large donations to the snp , xcept the 1 from the Weir's there is of course 110,000 members contributing around £2 a month As Dillinger said above, much of it will be the Weirs. It won't include membership fees, it includes only money received from those included in the 2015 Sunday Times Rich list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 As Dillinger said above, much of it will be the Weirs. It won't include membership fees, it includes only money received from those included in the 2015 Sunday Times Rich list. So in reality it's not at all interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 So in reality it's not at all interesting. I found it interesting... Reaffirms my position that the SNP are a party for the wealthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dillinger Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Wonder how wealthy Weir was when he first joined the SNP. Probably lucky if he had two brass buttons to rub together at the time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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