Indyref 2 (2)

[Malcolm]

6 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Sorry but can you name me any SNP leader including the Messiah Salmond or Surgeon that has got polls of 60% yes for independence? There isn't one so it is unfair to attempt to beat Humza with that stick. The polls have remainedaround the same levels and support for Yes has not fallen away since Humza came in so he cannot be portrayed as the disaster that people are determind to paint him as.

wait and see how the snp get on at the general election 

[StirlingEgg]

8 hours ago, Malcolm said:

I know… but I’m not sure if they will be standing a Reform candidate in my constituency.

It's funny when folk have a go at SNP finances but talk about voting for a Private Company rather than a political party. 

[TDYER63]

14 hours ago, Northern Light said:

Whether we like it or not personality politics is here to stay and even allowing for the fact that he inherited a shambolic situation, Humza Yousaf does not have it in him to inspire the "middle 20%" to move decisively towards the constant 60/40 split required that would force Westminster's hand. You could just about get away without him being inspirational if he had the ability to run a highly competent Government but looking back over the last ten years or so of his career there is little evidence he has that ability either. With him we would be stuck in the never-ending groundhog day of 52/48, 50/50, 48/52 opinion polls which will allow Westminster to sit back smoking a big fat cigar ignoring any calls for another referendum.

For sure it would be disastrous for the Independence movement if the SNP lost the 2026 Holyrood election, but I honestly think it would be beneficial to take a step back in order to make overall progress and by that I mean have a poor 2024 Westminster election that forces a leadership change that would include ditching the Greens, which has been the source of so much that has gone wrong in the last few years. 

For me, someone like Kate Forbes has the potential to be a more inspirational leader that has shown a good degree of competence in what she has done so far. Making a change after the next General Election would then give her a good year and a half or so ahead of the Scottish Parliament election, which should be more than enough time to see off Labour comfortably before really focusing on moving the dial on the YES vote via a combination of addressing the thorny issues like currency etc as well as changing the focus of day-to-day Goverment back to NHS/Education/Jobs away from gender recognition/anti oil and gas policies/obsession with centralising everything(the care reforms is the next disaster coming down the line).

Thank you for putting some meat on the bones of the ‘reset’.

I dont disagree with you regarding Humza. I have made that clear on here numerous times. The one single thing that almost made me resign my membership was the leadership election and how Humza was given such an open backing from so many in the party when,  for me, Kate Forbes was clearly heads above him in ability. 

 However I disagree with your take on how long it would take to turn thinhgs around if the SNP were to get battered in the WM election, I do not think 18 months would be enough to change opinion. I bet SLAB  thought the same all those years ago and look how that turned out. 
Yes, it would maybe bring back voters who have left the party but has any thought or accountability been given to the number it would lose by Kate Forbes replacing him? The SNP get a fair bit of support through their ‘partnership’ with the Greens. It will achieve nothing to gain one set of voters and lose another.
The timing is awful. That is why I was so annoyed at the leadership election as I feel we would have moved in a better direction by now if KF was in charge.

If there was perhaps a 2-3 yr gap between WM and Holyrood elections I could probably see your idea working. But there is no way Kate Forbes or anyone else is going to have any magic suggestions about, for example ,  currency in 18 mths. She has been in the party for years and to my knowledge hasn’t produced anything much different to what has already been discussed so why would another 18 mths change things ? Tbh I personally think the currency thing is being made to seem far more difficult than it really is. Numerous countries have changed currency becoming independent and seem to manage perfectly fine. My job is foreign exchange and I have absolutely no qualms about the currency. 

I don’t really have a problem with the SG on oil and gas. Moving to renewables whilst using fossil fuels to tide us over seems pretty sensible to me. Far more so than the WM ‘lets just grab everything we can and to hell with the future ‘  attitude. 

If there was longer between elections to turn things around I would be absolutely open to your thinking. As it is I think its a massive gamble that would not pay off. In Scotland it’s not just 2 main parties vying for power. Its the SNP versus everyone else and the union onslaught to wipe out the SNP should not be underestimated. 
 

 

 

[TDYER63]

15 hours ago, StirlingEgg said:

👍From where I'm sitting too. @TDYER63you always write considered and articulate posts that are hard to disagree with and remain diplomatic too 😋

I'm finding more recently that I'm feeling a bit more sympathetic towards the SNP. If we're all scunnered with the situation then imagine what it must be like working within it. Against a never-ending tide of shit from all sides.

Everything twisted or blown out of proportion so it's impossible to make an informed judgement on policies and debatable issues. How many damaging or iffy bills are sneaked through the UK parliament? You only find out about some concerns via the likes of the Good Law Project for example or when it's too late to address consequences. Scottish bills seem to get everybody's bit in. 

Thank you StirlingEgg , that must be the first time anyone has described me as diplomatic 😁

Its really difficult to  overcome objections without sounding like an SNP sheep at times .  To use Freedom’s words , I am beholden to no political party , I only want our country to look after itself and all the decisions that affect us to be made here, however to make that remotely possible you need to put your support behind a body  that can realistically achieve this. 
Ideally this would be a cross party agreement but  there is too much arrogance amongst some of the people who have the ability to make that happen . And not just in the SNP. A bloody nose may be the only way to open eyes but I genuinely fear by then it will be too late for independence.
 

[TDYER63]

6 hours ago, vanderark14 said:

If you think the matching pink is an issue.........wait till you see Angela rayner and her tartan boots when she visited scotland yesterday. 😕 

I think I'll head out today dressed as a Knight or I'll pop on a Morris dancers outfit so I fit in with the locals. 😆 

😂 

[Northern Light]

2 hours ago, TDYER63 said:

Thank you for putting some meat on the bones of the ‘reset’.

I dont disagree with you regarding Humza. I have made that clear on here numerous times. The one single thing that almost made me resign my membership was the leadership election and how Humza was given such an open backing from so many in the party when,  for me, Kate Forbes was clearly heads above him in ability. 

 However I disagree with your take on how long it would take to turn thinhgs around if the SNP were to get battered in the WM election, I do not think 18 months would be enough to change opinion. I bet SLAB  thought the same all those years ago and look how that turned out. 
Yes, it would maybe bring back voters who have left the party but has any thought or accountability been given to the number it would lose by Kate Forbes replacing him? The SNP get a fair bit of support through their ‘partnership’ with the Greens. It will achieve nothing to gain one set of voters and lose another.
The timing is awful. That is why I was so annoyed at the leadership election as I feel we would have moved in a better direction by now if KF was in charge.

If there was perhaps a 2-3 yr gap between WM and Holyrood elections I could probably see your idea working. But there is no way Kate Forbes or anyone else is going to have any magic suggestions about, for example ,  currency in 18 mths. She has been in the party for years and to my knowledge hasn’t produced anything much different to what has already been discussed so why would another 18 mths change things ? Tbh I personally think the currency thing is being made to seem far more difficult than it really is. Numerous countries have changed currency becoming independent and seem to manage perfectly fine. My job is foreign exchange and I have absolutely no qualms about the currency. 

I don’t really have a problem with the SG on oil and gas. Moving to renewables whilst using fossil fuels to tide us over seems pretty sensible to me. Far more so than the WM ‘lets just grab everything we can and to hell with the future ‘  attitude. 

If there was longer between elections to turn things around I would be absolutely open to your thinking. As it is I think its a massive gamble that would not pay off. In Scotland it’s not just 2 main parties vying for power. Its the SNP versus everyone else and the union onslaught to wipe out the SNP should not be underestimated. 
 

 

 

You may be right on what happens post a GE and maybe its wishful thinking on my part but there are a few straws that I clutch to assuming Kate is the new leader

1. The story around the 2024 GE will be all around getting rid of the Tories and whether we like it or not Independence will be a sideshow and people will vote accordingly (so switch to Labour or just not bother to vote). Whereas the story around the 2025 HR election will have Independence front and centre and again I expect  people to vote accordingly (so switch back to SNP or come out to vote again),
2. 2025 is a more favourable electorate with 16/17 year olds voting as well as European nationals living in Scotland.
3. People will be much less inclined to vote Green with their list vote as SNP will be much less definite FPTP seat winners
4. Despite SNP's best/worst endeavours to shoot themselves in the foot Independence is still holding at around 50% so the core SNP vote is still there - despite what anybody says there is absolutely no other route to Independence that doesn't flow through the SNP
5. Labour in WM with a majority will be a huge disappointment in what they don't deliver/change as they will inherit a terrible situation wherever you look with a leader who just let's himself be blown by whatever direction the wind is blowing. 
6. Anas would compare unfavourably to Kate when they go head to head

I should have been clearer in my post on timing of how I think Kate should approach things. I think her priorities for the 18 months leading up to HR elections should be twofold. Firstly would be to convince all YES voters that the SNP are fully focused on delivering independence  (there are so many people I speak to think that the current SNP are far more interested in being and staying on the gravy train than in delivering independence). Secondly to persuade as many as possible of the soft NO voters that the SNP are once again a competent governing party focused on what the majority of voters are interested in (as was the case in the Salmond years) and are not a Government only interested on fringe issues that the majority of voters have way down their list of priorities. I would NOT even begin to address the challenging independence issues like currency until after another five year term is secured as I don't think that's what will win or lose an election in 2025, it's NOT what the majority of voters have as a high priority when deciding who to vote for. It IS what will be necessary in the subsequent five years to move the soft NO's into being soft YES's.

This post is already too long (sorry about that) but one final thought on oil and gas. What you describe as moving to renewables whilst continuing to use fossil fuels is eminently sensible but that's not what the Scottish electorate hear from the SNP/Green Government - they hear Rosebank BAD, Cambo BAD = Oil and Gas BAD. All at the same time as the opinion poll earlier this week which said that Scottish voters were in favour of new licences by a very large 73/27 split (once don't knows removed). We all know that we need to move away from oil and gas over time but the SNP need to tone down the anti-oil and gas rhetoric as like it or not, that's not what the Scottish voters want to hear at this current time. I won't get into it here but my own view is that this entire debate on the climate is focused far too much on the production of energy where if we really want to make a step change we should be paying much more attention on how can we reduce consumption of both energy and the by-products produced from oil and gas

[StirlingEgg]

Thought this was an intriguing paragraph in the reporting of Michelle O'Neill become NI First Minister...

 

"But to sustain support – and to show voters in the Irish republic it can be trusted with power – it must focus on improving Northern Ireland’s economy, public services and infrastructure. To show, in other words, that the state it wants to abolish works."

[TDYER63]

42 minutes ago, Northern Light said:

You may be right on what happens post a GE and maybe its wishful thinking on my part but there are a few straws that I clutch to assuming Kate is the new leader

1. The story around the 2024 GE will be all around getting rid of the Tories and whether we like it or not Independence will be a sideshow and people will vote accordingly (so switch to Labour or just not bother to vote). Whereas the story around the 2025 HR election will have Independence front and centre and again I expect  people to vote accordingly (so switch back to SNP or come out to vote again),
2. 2025 is a more favourable electorate with 16/17 year olds voting as well as European nationals living in Scotland.
3. People will be much less inclined to vote Green with their list vote as SNP will be much less definite FPTP seat winners
4. Despite SNP's best/worst endeavours to shoot themselves in the foot Independence is still holding at around 50% so the core SNP vote is still there - despite what anybody says there is absolutely no other route to Independence that doesn't flow through the SNP
5. Labour in WM with a majority will be a huge disappointment in what they don't deliver/change as they will inherit a terrible situation wherever you look with a leader who just let's himself be blown by whatever direction the wind is blowing. 
6. Anas would compare unfavourably to Kate when they go head to head

I should have been clearer in my post on timing of how I think Kate should approach things. I think her priorities for the 18 months leading up to HR elections should be twofold. Firstly would be to convince all YES voters that the SNP are fully focused on delivering independence  (there are so many people I speak to think that the current SNP are far more interested in being and staying on the gravy train than in delivering independence). Secondly to persuade as many as possible of the soft NO voters that the SNP are once again a competent governing party focused on what the majority of voters are interested in (as was the case in the Salmond years) and are not a Government only interested on fringe issues that the majority of voters have way down their list of priorities. I would NOT even begin to address the challenging independence issues like currency until after another five year term is secured as I don't think that's what will win or lose an election in 2025, it's NOT what the majority of voters have as a high priority when deciding who to vote for. It IS what will be necessary in the subsequent five years to move the soft NO's into being soft YES's.

This post is already too long (sorry about that) but one final thought on oil and gas. What you describe as moving to renewables whilst continuing to use fossil fuels is eminently sensible but that's not what the Scottish electorate hear from the SNP/Green Government - they hear Rosebank BAD, Cambo BAD = Oil and Gas BAD. All at the same time as the opinion poll earlier this week which said that Scottish voters were in favour of new licences by a very large 73/27 split (once don't knows removed). We all know that we need to move away from oil and gas over time but the SNP need to tone down the anti-oil and gas rhetoric as like it or not, that's not what the Scottish voters want to hear at this current time. I won't get into it here but my own view is that this entire debate on the climate is focused far too much on the production of energy where if we really want to make a step change we should be paying much more attention on how can we reduce consumption of both energy and the by-products produced from oil and gas

That is a good post.

I agree with all your points  1-6’, although with points 5 and 6 the Scottish media will do absolutely everything to distract from Labours failings and as StirlingEgg pointed out in another post Labour will just blame the SNP for ever and a day.  But that aside I do agree with you as I truly believe Labour are going to be a huge disappointment. 

If the independence support was to  hold up despite the media battering that will ensue if there is a SNP slaughter at the WM elections then your second paragraph is possible. My concern though is that apathy sets in and people feel it just isn’t worth the hassle. 
Another thing to consider is will Humza actually get pushed and even if he did what guarantee is there that Kate Forbes wins or even puts herself forward again? 

Either way I think there is a very real chance of this scenario being put to the test if the polling is to be believed , only time will tell whether I am right or wrong on the outcome . I hope to god I am wrong and you are correct . 

On the oil and gas. I only saw the Redfield and Witon poll but that was 2 or 3 weeks ago. (Screenshots below) In that poll a large percentage of people knew nothing about the licenses which made the results a bit questionable . I am not sure how people can go from knowing nothing to having a view in order to provide an answer for a poll.. 
What poll were you looking at how educated were the respondents? 

I do agree with you that more focus should be put on reducing consumption rather than production of energy and there is little to be won by attacking energy policies that hold a degree of support by the public. 

 

 

[Northern Light]

47 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

That is a good post.

I agree with all your points  1-6’, although with points 5 and 6 the Scottish media will do absolutely everything to distract from Labours failings and as StirlingEgg pointed out in another post Labour will just blame the SNP for ever and a day.  But that aside I do agree with you as I truly believe Labour are going to be a huge disappointment. 

If the independence support was to  hold up despite the media battering that will ensue if there is a SNP slaughter at the WM elections then your second paragraph is possible. My concern though is that apathy sets in and people feel it just isn’t worth the hassle. 
Another thing to consider is will Humza actually get pushed and even if he did what guarantee is there that Kate Forbes wins or even puts herself forward again? 

Either way I think there is a very real chance of this scenario being put to the test if the polling is to be believed , only time will tell whether I am right or wrong on the outcome . I hope to god I am wrong and you are correct . 

On the oil and gas. I only saw the Redfield and Witon poll but that was 2 or 3 weeks ago. (Screenshots below) In that poll a large percentage of people knew nothing about the licenses which made the results a bit questionable . I am not sure how people can go from knowing nothing to having a view in order to provide an answer for a poll.. 
What poll were you looking at how educated were the respondents? 

I do agree with you that more focus should be put on reducing consumption rather than production of energy and there is little to be won by attacking energy policies that hold a degree of support by the public. 

 

 

I do share your concern that Humza will try to cling on post the GE unless there is a real meltdown in the SNP vote share that is not yet showing in opinion polls. Any sort of tight outcome with Labour won't cause him to quit and I'm not sure what the mechanism would be for him to be pushed out given the control of the National Executive that Sturgeon put in place.

Even if he is forced out or quits I'm sure the Sturgeon supporters will look to put another loyalist in place, whether it is an Angus Robertson (if he wants to stand this time) or a Mairi McAllan or someone else (the choice of quality candidates from that wing of the party is incredibly thin). I would imagine Kate will stand again. I would also imagine that Stephen Flynn will have a good hard look at how he can get into the race. I think the other wildcard in all of this is whether Operation Branchform ever comes to a conclusion and if so whether anyone from the Sturgeon wing is charged with a crime. If that happens then I think that kills off any challenger from that wing of the Party.

The oil and gas opinion poll I was reading about (it's actually an opinion poll about a variety of Scottish issues including politics) was by Survation for True North. I have no idea if it is reliable or not I'm afraid

[hampden_loon2878]

11 minutes ago, Northern Light said:

I do share your concern that Humza will try to cling on post the GE unless there is a real meltdown in the SNP vote share that is not yet showing in opinion polls. Any sort of tight outcome with Labour won't cause him to quit and I'm not sure what the mechanism would be for him to be pushed out given the control of the National Executive that Sturgeon put in place.

Even if he is forced out or quits I'm sure the Sturgeon supporters will look to put another loyalist in place, whether it is an Angus Robertson (if he wants to stand this time) or a Mairi McAllan or someone else (the choice of quality candidates from that wing of the party is incredibly thin). I would imagine Kate will stand again. I would also imagine that Stephen Flynn will have a good hard look at how he can get into the race. I think the other wildcard in all of this is whether Operation Branchform ever comes to a conclusion and if so whether anyone from the Sturgeon wing is charged with a crime. If that happens then I think that kills off any challenger from that wing of the Party.

The oil and gas opinion poll I was reading about (it's actually an opinion poll about a variety of Scottish issues including politics) was by Survation for True North. I have no idea if it is reliable or not I'm afraid

The general election result in Scotland will shock the life out of some,, 

[Dave78]

Like many others on here, i've become scunnered with the current SNP and the mistakes the Sturgeon era of the party has made.

However, watching the British media attempt to gaslight us all over Sturgeon's handling of Covid has been fucking galling. So much so that i'm now almost certain i'll be voting SNP at the next GE, when i had been considering sitting this one out.

At the risk of coming over all Hampden Loon and reading too much into my own political bubble, I doubt i'm alone. Expect a 3 to 5 percent bump in the SNP's vote share in the next set of polls.

BTW, @Northern Light welcome to the board and thanks for your great contributions to the thread

[Northern Light]

54 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

Like many others on here, i've become scunnered with the current SNP and the mistakes the Sturgeon era of the party has made.

However, watching the British media attempt to gaslight us all over Sturgeon's handling of Covid has been fucking galling. So much so that i'm now almost certain i'll be voting SNP at the next GE, when i had been considering sitting this one out.

At the risk of coming over all Hampden Loon and reading too much into my own political bubble, I doubt i'm alone. Expect a 3 to 5 percent bump in the SNP's vote share in the next set of polls.

BTW, @Northern Light welcome to the board and thanks for your great contributions to the thread

Thanks @Dave78. Long time lurker but given so much happening in both the football and political world this year I thought I should finally take the plunge!!

[TDYER63]

14 hours ago, Dave78 said:

Like many others on here, i've become scunnered with the current SNP and the mistakes the Sturgeon era of the party has made.

However, watching the British media attempt to gaslight us all over Sturgeon's handling of Covid has been fucking galling. So much so that i'm now almost certain i'll be voting SNP at the next GE, when i had been considering sitting this one out.

At the risk of coming over all Hampden Loon and reading too much into my own political bubble, I doubt i'm alone. Expect a 3 to 5 percent bump in the SNP's vote share in the next set of polls.

BTW, @Northern Light welcome to the board and thanks for your great contributions to the thread

Its bloody frustrating when you are in a position where there is a bigger picture to consider which means giving a political party your vote even when you are not completely happy about it. 
We could do with introducing a ‘half vote ‘ option, which on the ballot slip says ‘ SNP - but I am only doing it as I have to ya bassas’ 
 

14 hours ago, Dave78 said:

 

BTW, @Northern Light welcome to the board and thanks for your great contributions to the thread

👍

[Hertsscot]

1 hour ago, TDYER63 said:

Its bloody frustrating when you are in a position where there is a bigger picture to consider which means giving a political party your vote even when you are not completely happy about it. 

👍

It was apparently Democracy Week last week at school. I taught a couple of lessons. Made the point that if you vote, the people you vote for won't necessarily win. Even if they do, they won't always do (or be able to do) what you want. But if you don't vote, then you may well get who you definitely don't want!

[StirlingEgg]

6 hours ago, Hertsscot said:

It was apparently Democracy Week last week at school. I taught a couple of lessons. Made the point that if you vote, the people you vote for won't necessarily win. Even if they do, they won't always do (or be able to do) what you want. But if you don't vote, then you may well get who you definitely don't want!

What age are the kids you teach and were they quite interested? 

[Hertsscot]

1 hour ago, StirlingEgg said:

What age are the kids you teach and were they quite interested? 

These guys were S2. Only had two lessons. First lesson they were bit negative, second lesson they were more engaged. None of that necessarily surprised me, politics is old people discussing stuff that affects old people - until you point out just how it affects young people as well!

[StirlingEgg]

29 minutes ago, Hertsscot said:

These guys were S2. Only had two lessons. First lesson they were bit negative, second lesson they were more engaged. None of that necessarily surprised me, politics is old people discussing stuff that affects old people - until you point out just how it affects young people as well!

Tricky to balance them being engaged with depressing the hell out of them when spelling out how badly run and unfair it all is! I remember doing the pros and cons of selling council houses in Modern Studies but I don't think lack of affordable housing came up as one of the consequences at that point...

Edited February 4 by StirlingEgg

[vanderark14]

If in doubt make stuff up and smear a young activist 

 

[Alibi]

On 2/3/2024 at 9:14 PM, Dave78 said:

Like many others on here, i've become scunnered with the current SNP and the mistakes the Sturgeon era of the party has made.

However, watching the British media attempt to gaslight us all over Sturgeon's handling of Covid has been fucking galling. So much so that i'm now almost certain i'll be voting SNP at the next GE, when i had been considering sitting this one out.

At the risk of coming over all Hampden Loon and reading too much into my own political bubble, I doubt i'm alone. Expect a 3 to 5 percent bump in the SNP's vote share in the next set of polls.

BTW, @Northern Light welcome to the board and thanks for your great contributions to the thread

I think the contract between the treatment of Nicola Sturgeon and Alister Jack (and also the soft treatment of most of the Tory cabinet mob) has opened people's eyes this past week or so.  Sturgeon being attached quite viciously by the MSM including BBC Scotland, while Jack says he deleted all his messages and it's "Oh right, OK no problem".  The woman who called it a witchhunt on QT got it, and so have many many others.  The penny has dropped.

Once Labour's actual policies on Brexit , freedom of movement etc. are publicised, Sarwar should be hounded relentlessly.  Ian Murray couldn't answer a question on QT because of the polar opposite of what Starmer said about Gaza and what Sarwar said.  In an election campaign, the wheels will come off millionaire Sarwar pretty quickly.

[Toepoke]

3 hours ago, vanderark14 said:

If in doubt make stuff up and smear a young activist 

 

Shanks used to teach one of my kids before he won that by-election, hope he didn't pick on the class like that.

 

[Malcolm]

Good to see there is still some financial literacy in the snp with Kate Forbes speaking out against the recent tax rate increases by the loony left who currently govern….

 

Continually increasing taxes is ultimately ­counter-productive over the long term, even if you agree with it i­deologically, because it ultimately reduces public revenue. The forecasts for what the Scottish Government will raise through its latest changes to the top tax bands is just over £80 million. That isn’t to be sniffed at. But the forecasts also suggest that they’ll lose £118 million that they could have raised because of behavioural change – ­people leaving or reducing their hours or treating their income differently. That illustrates that we need to invest in people, in job creation, and in better wages. That way the tax take will increase. I’m constantly going on about the tax base. What I am really talking about is people. Calling for a bigger population, through inward migration and retaining our people, is exactly the same thing as wanting to see the tax base increase.’

[hampden_loon2878]

Forbes is the only snp politician i can see who will recapture the center ground 

[scotlad]

On 2/3/2024 at 6:11 PM, StirlingEgg said:

Thought this was an intriguing paragraph in the reporting of Michelle O'Neill become NI First Minister...

 

"But to sustain support – and to show voters in the Irish republic it can be trusted with power – it must focus on improving Northern Ireland’s economy, public services and infrastructure. To show, in other words, that the state it wants to abolish works."

Aye, it is a bit of a paradox. Then again, Sinn Fein didn't win the election by accident. Clearly there is strong support for them as a party - whether that's because they're now attracting support from outside their traditional base or whether it's demographic changes beginning to register I'm not sure.

What I do find interesting is the apparent lack of panic in the British media and in government about the election of a nationalist FM in NI, compared to when the SNP first came to power in Scotland and especially when they won their majority in 2011.

Sunak has publicly poured cold water on the idea of a border poll - as you would expect - but I suspect they or any subsequent British government will be privately relieved if Irish reunification happens. Northern Ireland was worth something to the British treasury 100 years ago but it's more of a hinderance now. The same can't be said if Scotland ever voted for independence though - we're too valuable to them.

[scotlad]

On 2/3/2024 at 8:43 PM, Northern Light said:

I do share your concern that Humza will try to cling on post the GE unless there is a real meltdown in the SNP vote share that is not yet showing in opinion polls. Any sort of tight outcome with Labour won't cause him to quit and I'm not sure what the mechanism would be for him to be pushed out given the control of the National Executive that Sturgeon put in place.

Even if he is forced out or quits I'm sure the Sturgeon supporters will look to put another loyalist in place, whether it is an Angus Robertson (if he wants to stand this time) or a Mairi McAllan or someone else (the choice of quality candidates from that wing of the party is incredibly thin). I would imagine Kate will stand again. I would also imagine that Stephen Flynn will have a good hard look at how he can get into the race. I think the other wildcard in all of this is whether Operation Branchform ever comes to a conclusion and if so whether anyone from the Sturgeon wing is charged with a crime. If that happens then I think that kills off any challenger from that wing of the Party.

The oil and gas opinion poll I was reading about (it's actually an opinion poll about a variety of Scottish issues including politics) was by Survation for True North. I have no idea if it is reliable or not I'm afraid

The last poll I saw had the SNP winning around 30 seats at WM - I think he'd be over the moon with that and it would almost certainly save his job.

If it didn't so well though and he was forced out (I could be wrong but I don't think the SNP have won a single byelection at any level since Humza took over) there is a dearth of viable replacements as leader outwith Forbes and Flynn (who is hamstrung by the fact he doesn't sit in Holyrood). I've heard rumours that Jenny Gilruth is rated amongst the Sturgeonite wing of the party.  😑

[Hertsscot]

13 minutes ago, scotlad said:

Sunak has publicly poured cold water on the idea of a border poll - as you would expect - but I suspect they or any subsequent British government will be privately relieved if Irish reunification happens. Northern Ireland was worth something to the British treasury 100 years ago but it's more of a hinderance now. The same can't be said if Scotland ever voted for independence though - we're too valuable to them.

Some really interesting thoughts, that may well be the English reaction but I wonder what the Loyalist reaction would be in the face of such a sell out by any UK Government.

Edited February 5 by Hertsscot