Coronavirus

[Orraloon]

We should maybe also think about shutting down pig farms as well? Because that is where swine flu started. That might have been in Mexico or maybe the USA. Although some folk try to blame the Chinese for that as well. There might be good reasons why some cultures don't eat pigs.

And camels, might as well exterminate all them. And civets.

During the cultural revolution attempts were made to exterminate entire wild bird populations to try to prevent the spread of various diseases. A step too far for me.

[Orraloon]

It looks like the EU president has changed tack a wee bit. Now accepting that the EU is responsible for the problems with the vaccine rollout instead of just balming the vaccine producers. She is still pointing the finger a wee bit but I'm guessing they have realised that blaming the vaccine companies, maybe isn't in the best interests of the EU. IMO, the vaccine companies have done a fantastic job, so far, and I think that most ordinary folk would agree with me.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_21_505

[Diamond Scot]

1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

We should maybe also think about shutting down pig farms as well? Because that is where swine flu started. That might have been in Mexico or maybe the USA. Although some folk try to blame the Chinese for that as well. There might be good reasons why some cultures don't eat pigs.

And camels, might as well exterminate all them. And civets.

During the cultural revolution attempts were made to exterminate entire wild bird populations to try to prevent the spread of various diseases. A step too far for me.

Should attempts not be made to make something safer after any outbreak?

[Orraloon]

19 minutes ago, Diamond Scot said:

Should attempts not be made to make something safer after any outbreak?

Yes.

[ParisInAKilt]

Is it too soon to re watch the movie outbreak?

[Orraloon]

WHO are now backing the use of the AZ vaccine for the SA variant. Also saying it's OK for over 65s.

And, extending the time between doses makes it more effective. 

I haven't read any of the studies which they have used to back up these recommendations but it all sounds like good news. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56011981

[Orraloon]

It looks like Scotland are catching up with England in the vaccine race. Not that it's a competition, like. I fully expect the the tap on the supply pipeline to be closed quite soon.

 

[Och Aye]

4 hours ago, Orraloon said:

It looks like Scotland are catching up with England in the vaccine race. Not that it's a competition, like. I fully expect the the tap on the supply pipeline to be closed quite soon.

 

And as if by magic...... 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56027662

[Och Aye]

14 minutes ago, Och Aye said:

And as if by magic...... 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56027662

Oh and avoid looking at hys comments. Unless you like being pissed off. 

Sorry for sharing BBC report. 

 

[biffer]

So, good news first. 

Deaths in care homes last week down 41% since early Jan. Compared to all deaths down 4%. Suggests vaccine is starting to have the desired effect. 

That desired effect BTW, is stopping people dieing or being hospitalised. If you still get a mild flu, not great but no big societal impact. 

 

Other good news - cases being reported globally have dropped by about 30-40% over the last month. This is the first time cases have declined globally since the start of the outbreak. 

 

Now, vaccines. The only data on AZ vs the safer variant is that a small study says its less effective at preventing mild illness. It's likely it still prevents a significant majority of hospitalisations and deaths (which is the important thing, see above). 

WHO has said the UK approach of spreading the AZ doses out is correct and produces a better immune response, a bit over 80% effective in preventing illness, pretty much 100% in preventing hospitalisation or death. This is based on the data from the US trial. They have also said its effective in over 65s. AZ will likely publish the study data soon. 

The real world data on the Pfizer vaccine looks like its not quite as effective as originally though - roughly the same as the AZ, mid 80s percentage wise. Still very effective and the same no hospitalisations / deaths. 

[phart]

30 minutes ago, biffer said:

So, good news first. 

Deaths in care homes last week down 41% since early Jan. Compared to all deaths down 4%. Suggests vaccine is starting to have the desired effect. 

That desired effect BTW, is stopping people dieing or being hospitalised. If you still get a mild flu, not great but no big societal impact. 

 

Other good news - cases being reported globally have dropped by about 30-40% over the last month. This is the first time cases have declined globally since the start of the outbreak. 

 

Now, vaccines. The only data on AZ vs the safer variant is that a small study says its less effective at preventing mild illness. It's likely it still prevents a significant majority of hospitalisations and deaths (which is the important thing, see above). 

WHO has said the UK approach of spreading the AZ doses out is correct and produces a better immune response, a bit over 80% effective in preventing illness, pretty much 100% in preventing hospitalisation or death. This is based on the data from the US trial. They have also said its effective in over 65s. AZ will likely publish the study data soon. 

The real world data on the Pfizer vaccine looks like its not quite as effective as originally though - roughly the same as the AZ, mid 80s percentage wise. Still very effective and the same no hospitalisations / deaths. 

 

[Lamia]

5 minutes ago, biffer said:

 

That desired effect BTW, is stopping people dieing or being hospitalised. If you still get a mild flu, not great but no big societal impact. 

 

If Covid was like flu that might be ok but it isn't and even mild decease seems to lead to organ damage and other issues in some people 

[biffer]

1 hour ago, Lamia said:

If Covid was like flu that might be ok but it isn't and even mild decease seems to lead to organ damage and other issues in some people 

Sorry, you've misunderstood (my fault for not explaining). 

The vaccine stops serious illness like you describe. Pretty much 100%.

Vaccines can be effective in different ways. They can

1. Stop you getting ill at all

2. Stop you getting seriously ill

3. Stop you dieing. 

Obviously if it does 1, it also does 2 & 3.

All of the percentages that have been in the headlines are for 1. But the percentages for 2&3 are nearly 100% for all the vaccines. 

So with a vaccine you can sometimes still get ill, but it is only a mild case. 

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by biffer

[Lamia]

4 minutes ago, biffer said:

Sorry, you've misunderstood (my fault for not explaining). 

The vaccine stops serious illness like you describe. Pretty much 100%.

 

But does it? I thought they were meaning hospitalisation rather than milder Covid which can still result in long term health issues? I haven't seen a definition of what they mean by serious illness. Have they specifically said  it protects against Long Covid?

[biffer]

2 minutes ago, Lamia said:

But does it? I thought they were meaning hospitalisation rather than milder Covid which can still result in long term health issues? I haven't seen a definition of what they mean by serious illness. Have they specifically said  it protects against Long Covid?

Organ damage is pretty definitely serious illness. 

Obviously they can't say what happens a year from now, as we can't run trials for that long. 

[biffer]

To help with definitions, see the first part of this, from the Oxford vaccine group. 

Organ failure, neurological damage etc is classified as critical disease 

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/covid-19-vaccines

[Lamia]

3 minutes ago, biffer said:

Organ damage is pretty definitely serious illness. 

Obviously they can't say what happens a year from now, as we can't run trials for that long. 

I have seen reports of people who didn't get bad symptoms thought they had recovered then relapsed and were checked only to find heart, lung or kidney damage. I don't know how common that is but these people had been no where close to going to hospital when they had Covid. i think this scares me the most.

[Och Aye]

36 minutes ago, Lamia said:

I have seen reports of people who didn't get bad symptoms thought they had recovered then relapsed and were checked only to find heart, lung or kidney damage. I don't know how common that is but these people had been no where close to going to hospital when they had Covid. i think this scares me the most.

Great that's made my night. I tested positive 1st November, only had no taste or sense of smell (still hasn't returned), fine otherwise. Last couple of weeks had stomach pains. 😕

[ThistleWhistle]

On 2/8/2021 at 2:25 PM, Lamia said:

I know I am the ultimate pessimist but I am a bit concerned that some areas Covid cases now seem to be increasing.

 

Argyll and Bute have kept numbers relatively low over the period of large increases elsewhere but is now ticking up. Falkirk and Clackmannanshire also seem to be on the rise! 

With the prospect of the phasing of return of schools this concerns me. Yes numbers are declining but not fast and we know how quickly they can start to rise!

Dunna worry – Alister Jack has been on radio this morning to reassure the locals:

 

 

GOOD MORNING CAMPBELTOWN!

 

Weather today is cold as hell – even more frigid than round the Murrell’s house. 

 

News just in – SNP pass ‘Motorway Beautification Bill’ making it illegal for Willie Rennie and Ruth Davidson to ride in a convertible with the top down.    

 

Following a slight rise in Covid activity in the Dumfries vector the brave 100 partook in covert operation ‘Haggis Shagger’ last night where Krankie Company airdropped into Stranraer in the early hours and heroically vaccinated half the town whilst they peacefully slept in their drink and drug based stupor.  Three of our brave soldiers unfortunately suffered severe pelvic based injuries when they met heavy resistance around big Senga’s house and will be airlifted home for physical, and mental, rehabilitation.

 

Unfortunately for ‘Shortbread Muncher’ Squadron the residence of Girvan had been forewarned of the operation and were ready waiting with pitchforks and homemade Molotov cocktails mixed from the highly volatile combination of their own Moon Shine and Fruit Punch Sunny Delight.  A tense standoff ensued and despite our best efforts the language barrier proved insurmountable so Apache air support was called in to napalm the entire town resulting in £100k worth of cultural regeneration the area had been waiting on since the 1980’s.        

 

 

Onward rode the one hundred!  Well ninety seven – three of them will be lucky if they ever walk again!      

[ThistleWhistle]

On 2/10/2021 at 2:09 PM, Orraloon said:

We should maybe also think about shutting down pig farms as well? Because that is where swine flu started. That might have been in Mexico or maybe the USA. Although some folk try to blame the Chinese for that as well. There might be good reasons why some cultures don't eat pigs.

And camels, might as well exterminate all them. And civets.

During the cultural revolution attempts were made to exterminate entire wild bird populations to try to prevent the spread of various diseases. A step too far for me.

Or shutting Kent too by the look of it!  Be interesting to see what the reaction is if the new prevalent variant around the world stems from our government being fucking incompetent. 'Sorry you're back in lockdown- Erm any chance of a trade deal?'  

[Orraloon]

14 hours ago, biffer said:

 

The real world data on the Pfizer vaccine looks like its not quite as effective as originally though - roughly the same as the AZ, mid 80s percentage wise. Still very effective and the same no hospitalisations / deaths. 

Where did you see that bit, biffer? It's fairly normal for the real world effectiveness of a vaccine to be lower (sometimes quite a bit lower) than the efficacy measured in phase 3 clinical trials. But I haven't seen that bit reported yet. Got any links to that?

[biffer]

28 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Where did you see that bit, biffer? It's fairly normal for the real world effectiveness of a vaccine to be lower (sometimes quite a bit lower) than the efficacy measured in phase 3 clinical trials. But I haven't seen that bit reported yet. Got any links to that?

Various reports, here’s one

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/pfizer-vaccine-effective-israel-101347501.html

 

nothing to be concerned about, it’s still high eighty something percent.

[Orraloon]

5 minutes ago, biffer said:

Various reports, here’s one

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/pfizer-vaccine-effective-israel-101347501.html

 

nothing to be concerned about, it’s still high eighty something percent.

Sorry, I can't see anything in there that backs up that it is less effective that originally thought. It wouldn't surprise me if that is what happens. In fact I would be more surprised if it doesn't. But that report doesn't say anything that backs that up. The israeli 33% figure doesn't back it up because they measured something totally different. The 89% figure mentioned is based on one dose.

[biffer]

12 hours ago, Lamia said:

I have seen reports of people who didn't get bad symptoms thought they had recovered then relapsed and were checked only to find heart, lung or kidney damage. I don't know how common that is but these people had been no where close to going to hospital when they had Covid. i think this scares me the most.

There have been four million confirmed cases in the UK, so probably double that in actual infections. If there have been a few hundred cases of severe organ damage then your odds are low of it happening to you. There’s a psychological effect in play here which is to do with our reaction to risk, and how that changes with publicity.

For example, the number of people flying always goes down after a plane crash. But the risk of flying is no different the day after the crash than it was before - people aren’t changing behaviour because of risk, but because of the publicity around that risk. 

similarly there are many viruses around that will do you a lot more harm than Covid. But no one worries about them . 
 

For example, measles, which most of us over a certain age have had, can fuck up your immune system for years. But most of us have a habit of ‘measles, pah’

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2222038-measles-has-a-devastating-and-long-term-effect-on-your-immune-system/

It can also cause organ damage, hepatitis, neurological damage and a whole host of other conditions

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/measles/complications/

The measles vaccines is about 95% effective. Measles has an R number of 18 btw.

Mumps can similarly cause neurological damage, encephalitis, meningitis. It’s 86% effective. 
 

But we don’t worry about the rare effects of a disease which is massively subdued by a vaccine, because they become very, very rare. Covid will go the same way. 
 

‘But mutations’ is the next question. Measles doesn’t really mutate for some kind of reason to do with the way it’s structured (mutations make it less effective). Flu mutates massively, again because of the way the virus is built, it makes it very easy. Coronaviruses are somewhere in the middle. BUT, the big thing about Coronaviruses is to look at their history. As they become endemic, they become less aggressive. The four older endemic human coronaviruses are all grouped in with the common cold as nothing much to worry about, for most people. The likelihood is that over time, Covid will go the same way. 

[biffer]

14 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Sorry, I can't see anything in there that backs up that it is less effective that originally thought. It wouldn't surprise me if that is what happens. In fact I would be more surprised if it doesn't. But that report doesn't say anything that backs that up. The israeli 33% figure doesn't back it up because they measured something totally different. The 89% figure mentioned is based on one dose.

The Israeli 33% figure compares to a 52% figure in the trials

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n217

Obviously needs further confirmation over time.

Edited February 12, 2021 by biffer