DAVIDB46 Posted August 7, 2021 Share Posted August 7, 2021 4 hours ago, King Of Paisley said: R number below 1 for the first time in Scotland since May according to the BBC Well that is good news hopefully end of masks soon as well , not holding out hope though. i sometimes feel we look into the science of this too deeply in Scotland which is I assume is to justify a lot of the weird and wacky SG rules . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted August 7, 2021 Share Posted August 7, 2021 5 hours ago, King Of Paisley said: R number below 1 for the first time in Scotland since May according to the BBC Cases and positivity percentage are slowly going back up again. They dropped like a stone after we got put out the EURO's and then were ever decreasingly dropping till a few days ago. We got under 5% positivity rate for a couple of days but it's back over 6% now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted August 7, 2021 Share Posted August 7, 2021 2 hours ago, phart said: Cases and positivity percentage are slowly going back up again. They dropped like a stone after we got put out the EURO's and then were ever decreasingly dropping till a few days ago. We got under 5% positivity rate for a couple of days but it's back over 6% now. Only going to go up from now with schools going back and the onset of autumn/winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tartandon Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 On 8/7/2021 at 5:38 PM, Lamia said: Only going to go up from now with schools going back and the onset of autumn/winter I agree. With restrictions easing further tomorrow, and the schools and universities returning, Case numbers and R will inevitably rise once more. While it is great that 16 and 17 year olds starting getting vaccinated at the weekend, the 8-week dosing interval means it will be late October at the earliest before they are protected. I'm surprised that the English daily case numbers haven't seen a marked increase since their so-called freedom day. I fear that our case numbers will rise following tomorrow's easing of restrictions because, unlike down south, we don't have any requirement in place to show proof of vaccination when entering large scale events Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 1 hour ago, tartandon said: I agree. With restrictions easing further tomorrow, and the schools and universities returning, Case numbers and R will inevitably rise once more. While it is great that 16 and 17 year olds starting getting vaccinated at the weekend, the 8-week dosing interval means it will be late October at the earliest before they are protected. I'm surprised that the English daily case numbers haven't seen a marked increase since their so-called freedom day. I fear that our case numbers will rise following tomorrow's easing of restrictions because, unlike down south, we don't have any requirement in place to show proof of vaccination when entering large scale events England isn't looking too great either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 I think they went heavy on the pfizer one. Middle of summer and it is coming back strong... worse for them than this time last year! We are fucked. lol. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morrisandmoo Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 45 minutes ago, thplinth said: I think they went heavy on the pfizer one. Middle of summer and it is coming back strong... worse for them than this time last year! We are fucked. lol. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/ Nah, I don't think anybody should conclude from those numbers that we are fucked. This time last year they had much stricter lockdown rules in place, so not really comparable. And deaths are still low and well below previous peaks. What should be obvious to folk is that Covid is going to be an ongoing cause of death for 10,20,30,000+ people per year in the UK (depending on the effectiveness of any vaccine against the latest variant) and we should plan accordingly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 1 hour ago, thplinth said: I think they went heavy on the pfizer one. Middle of summer and it is coming back strong... worse for them than this time last year! We are fucked. lol. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/ Are we supposed to be surprised that 85-90% of those in hospital are fully vaccinated when 95% of people have been vaccinate 🤔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 15 minutes ago, Lamia said: Are we supposed to be surprised that 85-90% of those in hospital are fully vaccinated when 95% of people have been vaccinate 🤔 I would not know because no one said 95% of Israel had been vaccinated that I saw. Where did you pluck that little statement from? He is talking about patients and hospitalizations from what I can see from the twitter post (but it is being translated so you have to be a little cautious). This from the Telegraph yesterday. It is behind a paywall so see it here. https://archive.is/PYKkJ Israel, one of the world's front-runners in Covid-19 vaccinations, is reinstating restrictions and warning of a fresh lockdown as the number of serious cases rises to its highest in four months. Nearly 5.4 million of Israel’s 9.3 million population have had both vaccines, according to health ministry data. But despite the high vaccination rates, Israel brought back its "green pass" system on Sunday as the country struggles to contain the delta variant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, thplinth said: I would not know because no one said 95% of Israel had been vaccinated that I saw. Where did you pluck that little statement from? Misread, apologies! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 No worries. I would like to know how many were vaccinated in Israel this time last year when it started to spike then. And why is it spiking again worse now. And why so many hospitalized now (based on this doctors experience) are vaccinated versus the general population (but maybe the doctor means just one jab when he says vaccinated and maybe that % is much higher in the general population... who knows and it is not that important to be honest. Anyway the point I am making here is Israel is one of the most heavily vaccinated countries in the world and they are going back into lockdown. That is why I think we are fucked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirrelhumper Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Looking forward to s few pints after work tonight and actually being allowed to stand at a bar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 (edited) The Ministry of Health in Israel published the data and it was 265 severe patients- and 64 were unvaccinated. so 201 vaccinated or partially vaccinated so it's 76% of them vaccinated not 95%. Also that's totally to be expecte as well Bayes theorem explains why so many vaccinated. Israel had 326 hospitalisations last count their peak was 2000. They re-introduced masks and their green pass for indoor stuff. Edited August 9, 2021 by phart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morrisandmoo Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 1 hour ago, thplinth said: No worries. I would like to know how many were vaccinated in Israel this time last year when it started to spike then. And why is it spiking again worse now. And why so many hospitalized now (based on this doctors experience) are vaccinated versus the general population (but maybe the doctor means just one jab when he says vaccinated and maybe that % is much higher in the general population... who knows and it is not that important to be honest. Anyway the point I am making here is Israel is one of the most heavily vaccinated countries in the world and they are going back into lockdown. That is why I think we are fucked. Except that there are not many people hospitalised and they are are no plans for any lockdown? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Morrisandmoo said: Except that there are not many people hospitalised and they are are no plans for any lockdown? The source is just a bad actor for instance they retweeted 2 days ago this However They think the vaccines are causing the increase in deaths, hence the leading questions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 On 7/21/2021 at 9:07 AM, chaff said: A customer of mine and her son both had covid last year and now both have type 1 diabetes. It might be a coincidence it might not. She's Polish and had to go back to Poland to find out what was wrong with them as no one at the doctors surgery here would see them. I meant to reply to this. That is very odd as someone told me a very similar thing. Been trying to remember who but... Also not surprised at the having to go back to Poland. Again similar experiences. The NHS seems to have reduced services drastically now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 48 minutes ago, thplinth said: I meant to reply to this. That is very odd as someone told me a very similar thing. Been trying to remember who but... Also not surprised at the having to go back to Poland. Again similar experiences. The NHS seems to have reduced services drastically now. The Polish women at my work routinely went back to Poland for all their dental and medical requirements pre-pandemic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Iceland interesting figures as well, all covered in this thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 I see the "do your own research" anti-vaxxers held a protest against the BBC but turned up to the wrong adress. What were the odds that they didn't have the correct information... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 18 minutes ago, phart said: I see the "do your own research" anti-vaxxers held a protest against the BBC but turned up to the wrong adress. What were the odds that they didn't have the correct information... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirrelhumper Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 2 hours ago, phart said: I see the "do your own research" anti-vaxxers held a protest against the BBC but turned up to the wrong adress. What were the odds that they didn't have the correct information... Ha, saw that. Morons. Absolutely nailed on that majority of them will rattle gear most weekends too. Brain donors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirrelhumper Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Was in a couple of pubs in the town last night, felt good standing chatting in a pub with some mates. I know why some may feel apprehensive but past few days been so good seeing mates down in Dumfries for a proper away day then actually standing at a bar last night just doing normal stuff you took for granted. . Hopefully there is no going back now as it'll mean the vaccinations are doing their job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 (edited) Are we seeing this already? Joe Rogan claiming (not sure when) he is getting sent this paper by qualified people frightened to speak out for fear of being labelled anti-vaxers. Pretty ironic if the vaccinations ended up killing far more than they saved and it was effectively the 'pro-vaxers' who killed the 'anti-vaxers'. It is so hard keeping up with these labels... https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002198 Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens Author Summary There is a theoretical expectation that some types of vaccines could prompt the evolution of more virulent (“hotter”) pathogens. This idea follows from the notion that natural selection removes pathogen strains that are so “hot” that they kill their hosts and, therefore, themselves. Vaccines that let the hosts survive but do not prevent the spread of the pathogen relax this selection, allowing the evolution of hotter pathogens to occur. This type of vaccine is often called a leaky vaccine. When vaccines prevent transmission, as is the case for nearly all vaccines used in humans, this type of evolution towards increased virulence is blocked. But when vaccines leak, allowing at least some pathogen transmission, they could create the ecological conditions that would allow hot strains to emerge and persist. This theory proved highly controversial when it was first proposed over a decade ago, but here we report experiments with Marek’s disease virus in poultry that show that modern commercial leaky vaccines can have precisely this effect: they allow the onward transmission of strains otherwise too lethal to persist. Thus, the use of leaky vaccines can facilitate the evolution of pathogen strains that put unvaccinated hosts at greater risk of severe disease. The future challenge is to identify whether there are other types of vaccines used in animals and humans that might also generate these evolutionary risks. Edited August 10, 2021 by thplinth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirrelhumper Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 1 minute ago, thplinth said: Are we seeing this already? Joe Rogan claiming he is getting sent this paper by qualified people frightened to speak out for fear of being labelled anti-vaxers. Pretty ironic if the vaccinations ended up killing far more than they saved and it was effectively the 'pro-vaxers' who killed the 'anti-vaxers'. It is so hard keeping up with these labels... https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002198 Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens Author Summary There is a theoretical expectation that some types of vaccines could prompt the evolution of more virulent (“hotter”) pathogens. This idea follows from the notion that natural selection removes pathogen strains that are so “hot” that they kill their hosts and, therefore, themselves. Vaccines that let the hosts survive but do not prevent the spread of the pathogen relax this selection, allowing the evolution of hotter pathogens to occur. This type of vaccine is often called a leaky vaccine. When vaccines prevent transmission, as is the case for nearly all vaccines used in humans, this type of evolution towards increased virulence is blocked. But when vaccines leak, allowing at least some pathogen transmission, they could create the ecological conditions that would allow hot strains to emerge and persist. This theory proved highly controversial when it was first proposed over a decade ago, but here we report experiments with Marek’s disease virus in poultry that show that modern commercial leaky vaccines can have precisely this effect: they allow the onward transmission of strains otherwise too lethal to persist. Thus, the use of leaky vaccines can facilitate the evolution of pathogen strains that put unvaccinated hosts at greater risk of severe disease. The future challenge is to identify whether there are other types of vaccines used in animals and humans that might also generate these evolutionary risks. I'd file that in the bin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 (edited) I quite fancied the Russian Sputnik V one when it first came out. Read an article about it at the time and the institute that developed it and why it was first on the market. They had developed a very similar one I think and they were able to make small modifications to adapt it to covid19. So that meant they could short cut a lot of the testing and know (with a higher degree of certainty) that it would work and also crucially be safe. So I quite fancied it. But then at the height of the pandemic in Europe when folk were dropping like flies the west politicized it and blocked it for months and months and even still now in most countries... And then they are lecturing you about the importance of getting vaccinated. The hypocrisy and profiteering in all of it does induce the dry boak at times. So now I am in the huff. Looks like they will be forcing everyone (cant work, cant travel, cant go to shops etc) so if so which one of these pishy western ones available in the west is the least shite then? Anyone had any bad experiences with certain ones? Was thinking pfizer but it is looking a bit weak now. J&J is the one jab but it may give you blood clots. (Ironically they only recommend that to the over 60's I think as only then is the risk of not taking the J&J vaccine judged greater than getting a blood clot.) So thinking fuck the J&J one. What about Moderna? What does it do to you if things go tits up? Edited August 10, 2021 by thplinth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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