scoobydoo Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The 700 sample gave a large Yes lead. Are you talking about the Ipsos Mori poll released two weeks before the election? It did accurately predict what share of the vote the SNP would get for the constituency and regional list votes, however it also predicted Labour would do better than they actually did, in particular their prediction for Labour share of the vote in the regional list was significantly higher than what they ended up getting (32% vs 26%). It's worth looking back at the final poll released on the eve of the 2011 election. YouGov predicted: SNP 42/35 LAB 35/32 CON 11/13 LIB 8/7 The final scores were: SNP 45/44 LAB 32/26 CON 14/12 LIB 8/5 So they underestimated the SNP's regional vote by 9%! They overestimated the Labour vote by similar amounts. I hope and pray that the pollsters are somehow vastly underestimating the Yes vote in the same way! I don't know anymore, i'm reading so much at the moment it's hard to remember. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Bollox to the polls n'all. Sense the fear! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 8 polls between now and Thursday am. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlfieMoon Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 TNS poll @ 5pm is about rUK attitudes to Scottish independence. Whatever the feck that means. Assume it's not taking a sample of Yes vs No from Scotland. Survation due at 22.30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roscoe Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Just had Ipsos MORI pollsters on the phone. Registered with them that I am a YES voter. Said their poll will be on STV at 6pm on Wednesday. Won't be long now. Yes Yes Yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 16, 2014 Author Share Posted September 16, 2014 TNS poll @ 5pm is about rUK attitudes to Scottish independence. Whatever the feck that means. Assume it's not taking a sample of Yes vs No from Scotland. It's an England and Wales poll. It doesn't affect the referendum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 FFS given the difficulties in polling for this one would it not make sense to up the sample from a thousand? Every time it is the same 1000 or thereabouts. I'd like to see a 10,000 sample. (Get that bloke from Stage coach to pay.) There will be a sample of about 4.3 million in a couple of days. jist have patience min. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redstevie007 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 There will be a sample of about 4.3 million in a couple of days. jist have patience min. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) Nae idea how, who, whatm they are and what method they used, https://twitter.com/twittprognosis/status/511512034476052481 Yes 51% No 49% by Prognosis? Sample was over 1,500 people. Edited September 16, 2014 by weekevie04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 16, 2014 Author Share Posted September 16, 2014 Nae idea how, who, whatm they are and what method they used, https://twitter.com/twittprognosis/status/511512034476052481 Yes 51% No 49% by Prognosis? Sample was over 1,500 people. I've asked them for data tables. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I've asked them for data tables. Nice one. Been interesting to see how they conducted this sample. I've never heard of them before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 They have an updated tweet from that Clyde. 55% Yes. Wish it was true, though sounds like horrlicks to me :-( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
perthTam Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 They have an updated tweet from that Clyde. 55% Yes. Wish it was true, though sounds like horrlicks to me :-( Wow! Not sure I believe it though...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Wow! Not sure I believe it though...... No, I wouldnt. No idea who they are, what they do, or how they do it. Pick a number between 45 and 55 and tweet it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 They have an updated tweet from that Clyde. 55% Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 16, 2014 Author Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) ICM - 21:00 Survation - 22:30 Edited September 16, 2014 by Clyde1998 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hannibal smith Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 ICM - 21:00 Survation - 22:30 Tonight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 16, 2014 Author Share Posted September 16, 2014 Tonight? Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 16, 2014 Author Share Posted September 16, 2014 Today – 9pm: ICM poll for The Guardian Today – 10:30pm: Survation poll for the Scottish Daily Mail Wednesday 17th – 6pm: Ipsos MORI poll for STV News Wednesday 17th – Expected well before midnight: YouGov poll Wednesday 17th – No time yet stated: Opinium poll for The Telegraph Thursday 18th – No time yet stated, early afternoon expected: Ipsos MORI poll for theEvening Standard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hannibal smith Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Ian Jones @ian_a_jones 2mA new TNS poll suggests 63% of adults in England & Wales are against Scottish independence - but only 55% care about the #indyref result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Everyone of those commissioning a poll is deeply anti yes. He who pays the band picks the music. Any pro yes folk commissioning one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 16, 2014 Author Share Posted September 16, 2014 Everyone of those commissioning a poll is deeply anti yes. He who pays the band picks the music. Any pro yes folk commissioning one? Doesn't seem like it, but I'd be surprised if we didn't see another Panelbase poll... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redz Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 There's a poll at my uni (Norwich UEA) that has 77% saying that Scotland should not be an independent country. Whether that's down to capability or that they'll 'miss us' I have nae feckin idea........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giblet Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Same poll has 55% of English think Scotland has too many powers already! Dont see that getting reported. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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