tartanpar Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 (edited) It looks like if we win on Saturday it will be enough to secure pot 2 for the WC draw, however, i thought i would show what other countries we are fighting with to get into pot 2. If we beat Ireland we will have 861 ranking points, if we draw we will have 774 and if we lose we will have 731. There are 9 countries in each pot so we need to be in the top 18 (excluding Russia) in UEFA to secure pot 2. There are 14 teams that we cannot overtake whatever the results are at the weekend - Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal, France, Spain, Switzerland, Romania, Italy, England, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Croatia & Wales. Austria - the only way we can finish above them is if we beat Ireland and they lose to Russia. Denmark if they lose to Serbia they will be on 761 points, a draw 799, a win 876. It is in Denmark's hands to finish above us. Greece - they have two games, a qualifier v the Faroes and a friendly v Poland. If they win both the most they can get is 793. So a win v Ireland will guarantee us finishing above them. If they beat Faroes and draw with Poland they can only get 752 points so a draw v Ireland would put us above them. Bosnia & Herzegovina - If they beat Israel they will be on 819 so again a win v Ireland guarantees us to finish above them. A draw would put them on 720 so even a defeat to Ireland would put us ahead of them if they draw. Poland - they have two games, a qualifier v Georgia and a friendly v Greece. If they win both then they will be on 818 so again a win v Ireland means we finish above them. If they beat Georgia and draw with Greece then they will be on 769 so again a draw for us v Ireland would be enough to finish above them. Ukraine - they have a qualifier v Luxembourg. Can't really see any other result than a Ukraine win. That would put them on 791 so only way for us to beat that is a win v Ireland. Iceland - they play a home game v Czech Republic. If they win then they will be on 877, 1 more point than we can get if we beat Ireland. However, if they draw they will be on 786 so again we would need to win to beat that total. If they lose they will be on 740 so a draw v Ireland would be enough to be above them. Sweden - they play Montenegro. If they win they will be on 752 so we would need a draw to finish above them. If they draw or lose then we will be above them even with a defeat to Ireland. Israel - If they beat BiH they will be on 828 so we would need a win to better that. A draw would have them on 689 so a even a defeat to Ireland would have us above them. The best result for us in that game is definately a draw as we would finish above them both even with a defeat v Ireland. Hungary - They play Finland and a win would put them on 763. Any other result would mean they couldnt finish above us. Northern Ireland - They play at home to Romania. A win would put them on 838 so we would need to win to stay above them. Any other result for them would mean they couldnt finish ahead of us. Serbia play Denmark and a win would put them on 821 so we would need to beat Ireland to better that. Any other result would mean they cant finish above us. The best result for us in this game is definately a draw. Slovenia - If they beat England they would be on 791, Any other result would mean they cant finish above us. No one else can finish ahead of us. So in summary if we win we dont need to worry about anything else we are in pot 2. If we dont win then these are the results we need to be looking out for. Debmark v Serbia - It doesnt really matter as whatever the result is 1 of them will finish above us. Faroes v Greece/ Poland v Greece - Anything other than 2 Greece wins is enough for us as long as we get a point in Ireland. BiH v Israel - 100% draw would mean we finish above both even with a win. Poland v Georgia & Greece - Anything other than 2 Poland wins would be good enough for us even with a draw v Ireland Ukraine v Lux - Anything other than a Ukriane win would be good for us. Iceland v Czech - A Czech win please Sweden v Montenegro - Anything other than a Sweden win is good. Finland v Hungary - Anything other than a Hungary win NI v Romania - Anything other than a home win. Slovenia v England - Mon the English (or a draw). So even if we dont beat Ireland there is still a chance that with some results going our way we could sneak into pot 2. Edited June 11, 2015 by tartanpar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ak91 Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Brilliant post, thanks for that. I'd need to take a day off work to assemble this post lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASTA Mick Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 I looked at this earlier in the week and deleted what I wrote after I realised that the results needed were unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Of Paisley Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Iceland's rise has been meteoric under Lars Lagerback. Not that long ago they were a pot 5 team and were generally classed as makeweights. I'm utterly grateful that we now have Strachan, but you sometimes wonder what might have been had we gone for Lagerback instead of Levein. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radian_13 Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Some good teams in Pot 3 so could be s hard group no matter what pot we in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalgety Bay TA Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Excellent post, very informative, least we now know who to shout on in the next few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairbairn Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Excellent post however come Saturday there's no way I'll remember all the different combinations of what's required! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASTA Mick Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Some good teams in Pot 3 so could be s hard group no matter what pot we in Its true but getting France as a pot 2 team would be a kick in the balls that we know would almost certainly come our way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairbairn Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Its true but getting France as a pot 2 team would be a kick in the balls that we know would almost certainly come our way. Are France not likely to be a Pot 1 team? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalgety Bay TA Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Are France not likely to be a Pot 1 team? Nope, they have no chance of being a pot 1 team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tartanpar Posted June 12, 2015 Author Share Posted June 12, 2015 Italy also have a chance of being in pot 2. The nightmare scenario would be we end up in pot 3 and get say the Germans/Netherlands in pot 1 and Italy/France in pot 2. However, imagine getting pot 2 and then drawing Wales as pot 1 (if they beat Belgium tonight then they are guaranteed pot 1). What a difference!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tartanpar Posted June 12, 2015 Author Share Posted June 12, 2015 Are France not likely to be a Pot 1 team? France are disadvantaged as they have been playing friendlies since the WC so are not able to pick up the exta points the others do in qualifying games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbers Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Wales are our bogie team! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairbairn Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Italy also have a chance of being in pot 2. The nightmare scenario would be we end up in pot 3 and get say the Germans/Netherlands in pot 1 and Italy/France in pot 2. However, imagine getting pot 2 and then drawing Wales as pot 1 (if they beat Belgium tonight then they are guaranteed pot 1). What a difference!! Or we could get pot 3 and get Wales from 1 and Norn Iron from 2!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrystarfish Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Wales are our bogie team! I'd rather they were our Pot 1 bogie team rather than our Pot 6 bogie team like last time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tartanpar Posted June 12, 2015 Author Share Posted June 12, 2015 Or we could get pot 3 and get Wales from 1 and Norn Iron from 2!! Good point! That would be acceptable :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chesney Hawkes TA Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 I looked at this earlier in the week and deleted what I wrote after I realised that the results needed were unlikely. Shame. That analysis could have only benefited from being put in a preferred formation and formatted accordingly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dublin Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 I find it a bit strange that Wales, a country that haven't been in a tournament for 57 years have a really good chance of being in pot 1, and Iceland who have never qualified, being in pot 2. Nothing against Wales, who have obviously made big improvements in qualifying results in recent years, and deserve to move up, but pot 1 after more than half a century of not qualifying? This happened some years ago when Norway who hadn't qualified for more than 20 years, I think based a lot on friendly results, were put in pot 1 and finished well down their group. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonny78 Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 are England pot 1? hope so, i wanna draw them when we are pot 2, (or even pot 3) Easy pot 1 team IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonny78 Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 (edited) points . Why are friendly games included in seeding?? - Ya cud just play whoever ya like . Why are we drawing a new group when we haven't finished the old one yet? - Seeding should be taken from a full campaign Fifa fannying aboot with the baws Edited June 12, 2015 by bonny78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 (edited) are England pot 1? hope so, i wanna draw them when we are pot 2, (or even pot 3) Easy pot 1 team IMO Not at the moment they're not. 100% record in qualifiers so far... Edited June 12, 2015 by Toepoke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tartanpar Posted June 12, 2015 Author Share Posted June 12, 2015 points . Why are friendly games included in seeding?? - Ya cud just play whoever ya like . Why are we drawing a new group when we haven't finished the old one yet? - Seeding should be taken from a full campaign Fifa fannying aboot with the baws The 2016 world cup qualifying has already started for many countries. They want to stage the draw for the other confederations together. You can play anyone in a friendly but the points are dependent on the standard of opposition. England are not guaranteed pot 1 but are very likely to get it. They fully deserve pot 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonny78 Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 ideally we'd like to be pot 2 and England our pot 1 team. Then the fun really starts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 If Wales win tonight and England fail to win on Sunday - then Wales are above England in the World Rankings. Going back to the OP - do we just need to beat Ireland to be in Pot 2? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASTA Mick Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 If Wales win tonight and England fail to win on Sunday - then Wales are above England in the World Rankings. Going back to the OP - do we just need to beat Ireland to be in Pot 2? Yes. A win is enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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