ErsatzThistle Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Thought this was interesting. A pollster predicts each individual seat in England, Scotland and Wales that he thinks will change hands in the General Election. He predicts the SNP to gain 12 seats and hold the six they currently have. FPTP will stop us getting 30+ seats even though the vote will probably go up greatly. 18 seats wouldn't be too bad for now at least.http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/these-are-the-92-seats-that-will-change-hands-at-the-general-election--eJ4vf04bje Of course this doesn't necessarily mean he's right or that I agree with him, it's still interesting nonetheless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Can't see map great on my phone but it looks like some of the Scottish constituency gains have an astrix beside them. What's this for? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErsatzThistle Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 (edited) That's a good question. It doesn't say on the page what they are for. Some of the English seats have them too. Edited January 18, 2015 by ErsatzThistle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northernscum Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Could it possibly be where the current incumbent is not standing for re-election? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biffer Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 That's a good question. It doesn't say on the page what they are for. Some of the English seats have them too. Are they seats which have had a by election since 2010? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonnyTJS Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Could it possibly be where the current incumbent is not standing for re-election? Correct. Source Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Correct. Source "I’ve made the predictions as scientific as I can make them on the evidence I have available to me. In the end you also have to sniff the political wind and rely on your own political instinct." I know what he is saying, that just jumps out . Removing "smell political wind" as one of your variables would make it a bit more scientific. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
min Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'd like to know how he figures Labour will gain West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine??? There's zero chance of that happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'll never forgive Cove Sheep if his rabid horde replace Katy Clark with Patricia Gibson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
one t in scotland Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 East Dunbartonshire LD --> Lab predicted, however the SNP are the current bookies favourites. If they win that seat they'll get at least 40 MPs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Thought this was interesting. A pollster predicts each individual seat in England, Scotland and Wales that he thinks will change hands in the General Election. He predicts the SNP to gain 12 seats and hold the six they currently have. FPTP will stop us getting 30+ seats even though the vote will probably go up greatly. 18 seats wouldn't be too bad for now at least. http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/these-are-the-92-seats-that-will-change-hands-at-the-general-election--eJ4vf04bje Of course this doesn't necessarily mean he's right or that I agree with him, it's still interesting nonetheless. I think that could be pretty accurate for Scotland.. although cannae see Labour getting Aberdeenshire one. The tories will prob get another seat tho. poss 2. This could be the election where the SNP come second in 40- 50 seats , some places by only a few 100 votes...Labour and SNP could have very close %ages of total votes..BUT FPTP is the main stumbling block here., and 40% will be the turning point..... SNP below 40= 15-20 seats ( an excellent result) and very close seconds over 40% and labour seats will fall like goals thro a Killie defence..... and 30+ will be the reward.. that will be like a 2011 seismic event So get out and ensure ALL your YES voting pals support the SNP...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FuNsTeR Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I think that could be pretty accurate for Scotland.. although cannae see Labour getting Aberdeenshire one. The tories will prob get another seat tho. poss 2. This could be the election where the SNP come second in 40- 50 seats , some places by only a few 100 votes...Labour and SNP could have very close %ages of total votes..BUT FPTP is the main stumbling block here., and 40% will be the turning point..... SNP below 40= 15-20 seats ( an excellent result) and very close seconds over 40% and labour seats will fall like goals thro a Killie defence..... and 30+ will be the reward.. that will be like a 2011 seismic event So get out and ensure ALL your YES voting pals support the SNP...... here less of the cheek ya bam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacobite Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'd like to know how he figures Labour will gain West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine??? There's zero chance of that happening. Thats a bizarre one. Thats the constituency I stay in and there is no chance Labour will win here.More likely to be SNP with a small chance of the Tories taking the seat back. The Lib Dems have more chance of holding the seat than Labour have of winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Thats a bizarre one. Thats the constituency I stay in and there is no chance Labour will win here.More likely to be SNP with a small chance of the Tories taking the seat back. The Lib Dems have more chance of holding the seat than Labour have of winning. http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html#AberdeenshireWestandKincardinePredicting a Nat gain, possible conservative, then ld, then lab with 0.1% so can't see labour getting Aberdeenshire West Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deecie Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Aberdeenshire West will stay Lib Dem. They've had the same MP for ~20 years. He's a local lad and in all honesty, a nae bad apple. Pretty sure his Dad was the local MP before him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Danny Alexander due to keep his seat on that prediction, how depressing. I don't even live in that constituency but he is probably the person I would like to see lose his seat the most. Him and Jim Murphy...maybe Douglas Alexander as well...and Margaret Curran and Ian Davidson...too many to keep going here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holty Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Danny Alexander due to keep his seat on that prediction, how depressing. I don't even live in that constituency but he is probably the person I would like to see lose his seat the most. Him and Jim Murphy...maybe Douglas Alexander as well...and Margaret Curran and Ian Davidson...too many to keep going here. I live in Alexander's constuency and support the SNP. It will be tough to oust him but he has lost a lot of support with his cosying up to the Tories. A majority voted Yes in Inverness and one thing that united all yes voters was an utter hatred of Alexander. The key will be getting those who voted Yes to vote SNP, do that & Alexander will be a goner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kumnio Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Some bloke called Ian Dale has predicted the election results. UKIP still massively over represented in the media, hope they get less than 5 seats. Would love to see Danny Alexander get the boot, as well as every other political prostitute for Lib Dem. Labour will be a disaster if they win, Miliband couldnt run a grocery shop let alone a country, would like to see his party get obliterated nation wide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Danny Alexander due to keep his seat on that prediction, how depressing. I don't even live in that constituency but he is probably the person I would like to see lose his seat the most. Him and Jim Murphy...maybe Douglas Alexander as well...and Margaret Curran and Ian Davidson...too many to keep going here. I live in Alexander's constuency and support the SNP. It will be tough to oust him but he has lost a lot of support with his cosying up to the Tories. A majority voted Yes in Inverness and one thing that united all yes voters was an utter hatred of Alexander. The key will be getting those who voted Yes to vote SNP, do that & Alexander will be a goner. Something to give you some hope : http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html#InvernessNairnBadenochandStrathspey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Endell Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Some bloke called Ian Dale has predicted the election results. UKIP still massively over represented in the media, hope they get less than 5 seats. Would love to see Danny Alexander get the boot, as well as every other political prostitute for Lib Dem. Labour will be a disaster if they win, Miliband couldnt run a grocery shop let alone a country, would like to see his party get obliterated nation wide. Miliband as PM is a truly frightening prospect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Miliband as PM is a truly frightening prospect. I like him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I like him Seriously... Scunnered you are never off here spouting left wing this and left wing that (which is fine) ... and u like Milliband. How do those two things marry up..... Milliband and Socialism... ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html#AberdeenshireWestandKincardine Predicting a Nat gain, possible conservative, then ld, then lab with 0.1% so can't see labour getting Aberdeenshire West http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/SNP_seat_gains.html Predicting 84% chance of an SNP gain. http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/current_vote_by_seat.html Predicts: SNP - 41% (+25%) CON - 21% (-9%) LIB - 17% (-21%) LAB - 15% (+1%) Seems to be a very odd prediction then... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewelk Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I live in Alexander's constuency and support the SNP. It will be tough to oust him but he has lost a lot of support with his cosying up to the Tories. A majority voted Yes in Inverness and one thing that united all yes voters was an utter hatred of Alexander. The key will be getting those who voted Yes to vote SNP, do that & Alexander will be a goner. I kind of worry that the artsy fashionable yes voters are going to go green. That kind of splitting of the yes vote could end up being labour's saviour. Well, it'll stop them getting utterly obliterated. Maybe just obliterated instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Seriously... Scunnered you are never off here spouting left wing this and left wing that (which is fine) ... and u like Milliband. How do those two things marry up..... Milliband and Socialism... ? I feel sorry for him. As well as being barely human, he's under attack from all sides. From a right wing compliant media and also from the Blairite element of his own party. I used to scoff at his every move, but once I took a step back and took him for what he is, a moron who has found himself as leader of the opposition and is out of his depth... But Labour would be far worse without him. He's far from a Bennite, but equally far from a Blairite and I appreciate that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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