Projected Pots Euro 2024 Finals

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

I put this on another thread. But it deserves it's own thread.

 

Follow the Link below for some Excellent Analysis on Scotland's Probability of Qualifying, Finishing 1st in our Group, Finishing 2nd in our Group, Being in Pot 1 for the Finals Draw, Being in Pot 2.

1st Table: Current Ranking of all Teams to be in Pot 1, Pot 2, etc.

2nd Table: Projected Probability of finishing spot in our current Group. (From We Global Football)

3rd Table: Projected Probability of a Pot 1 / Pot 2 Seeding. (From We Global Football)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sPAM6KBimzCIqsRICuLOUT0R_UQsWzcWiv1rEnHS4DE/edit?usp=sharing

It goes without saying. The %'s left over is the % Probability of Disaster for Scotland!  😬

 

Tie Breakers for the SEEDING POTS for the Finals:

1. Position in the group; (i.e A 2nd Placed Team will always be Ranked LOWER than a Group WINNER, Regardless of Points)
2. Higher number of points;
3. Superior goal difference;
4. Higher number of goals scored;
5. Higher number of goals scored away from home;
6. Higher number of wins;
7. Higher number of wins away from home;
8. Fair play conduct (1 point for a single yellow card, 3 points for a red card as a consequence of two yellow cards, 3 points for a direct red card, 4 points for a yellow card followed by a direct red card);
9. Position in the UEFA Nations League overall ranking.

 

Current Group Tie-Breakers are:

1. Higher number of points obtained in the matches played among the teams in question;
2. Superior goal difference in matches played among the teams in question;
3. Higher number of goals scored in the matches played among the teams in question;
4. If, after having applied criteria 1 to 3, teams still have an equal ranking, criteria 1 to 3 are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the teams in question to determine their final rankings.^[a] If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria 5 to 11 apply;
5. Superior goal difference in all group matches;
6. Higher number of goals scored in all group matches;
7. Higher number of away goals scored in all group matches;
8. Higher number of wins in all group matches;
9. Higher number of away wins in all group matches;
10. Fair play conduct in all group matches (1 point for a single yellow card, 3 points for a red card as a consequence of two yellow cards, 3 points for a direct red card, 4 points for a yellow card followed by a direct red card);
11. Position in the UEFA Nations League overall ranking.

[immcinto]

Scotland have a 63.5% chance of winning the group? Really?

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

Probably because:

- We have an easier run in, Norway at Home, versus Spain playing them Away

- 1 less game

- Spain having to beat us by 2 clear goals to only level the head to head.

 

I deffo put our chances of winning it above 50%. We go to Spain with the hope we don't lose by 2. The way we are playing, that is very achievable.

 

 

[mccaughey85]

1 hour ago, immcinto said:

Scotland have a 63.5% chance of winning the group? Really?

We probably only need to win in Georgia and draw against Norway to win this group. A pretty realistic chance that happens.

Actually after having another look at the table Spain can still go top if they win their remaining games. They might drop points against us or Norway though.

Edited September 13, 2023 by mccaughey85

[Texas Pete]

2 hours ago, immcinto said:

Scotland have a 63.5% chance of winning the group? Really?

Not a chance. Spain are heavy favourites to win the group with every bookie in the UK. 

[Caledonian Craig]

1 hour ago, Texas Pete said:

Not a chance. Spain are heavy favourites to win the group with every bookie in the UK. 

Suits me as that also means we are certain to qualify then. Spain guaranteed to win the group would mean they take something from Norway which knocks Norway out and sends us through.

[Orraloon]

6 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Suits me as that also means we are certain to qualify then. Spain guaranteed to win the group would mean they take something from Norway which knocks Norway out and sends us through.

Spain could lose to Norway and still win the group.

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

 

The main chance of Scotland NOT winning the Group (filtering out the less likely scenario's are)

Spain to Beat Scotland by 2 Clear Goals + Spain to beat Norway AWAY from Home.

 

If you have the chances of the 2 things above happening, Spain are FAVS. If you do not think BOTH these things will happen, Scotland are FAVS.

 

Other Large Factors (but no where near as big as above) are:

Scotland not beating Norway at HOME

Scotland not beating Georgia AWAY

 

And everything after that is on a sliding scale of probability.

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

I will add, Scotland being a POT 2 Team is not wholly dependent on winning the Group.

[Orraloon]

7 minutes ago, Craig Fae Hamilton said:

I will add, Scotland being a POT 2 Team is not wholly dependent on winning the Group.

I think we have more chance of winning the group than being the best runner up. My calculator tells me it's 63% more chance. 

[immcinto]

33 minutes ago, Craig Fae Hamilton said:

I will add, Scotland being a POT 2 Team is not wholly dependent on winning the Group.

The 63.5% odds are specifically to come 1st in the group. WGF are usually pretty good at this stuff, but I reckon they have a typo in their spreadsheet somewhere

[Texas Pete]

15 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Suits me as that also means we are certain to qualify then. Spain guaranteed to win the group would mean they take something from Norway which knocks Norway out and sends us through.

Indeed although we will be wanting Norway to beat Spain if we can take something in Seville. 

I wouldn’t say Spain are guaranteed to win the group but they are favourites to do so simply because they will likely win the rest of their games comfortably which will suit us from a qualification point but will make it hard for us to win the group.

I would be surprised if Spain didn’t win the rest of their games and finish on 21 points which will probably win them the group. Even if they draw with Norway they will still have a good chance to top the group with 19 points.

Our best hope is to limit Spain to a one goal victory and to beat Georgia and Norway which is a big ask but doable.

 

[ceudmilefailte]

3 hours ago, immcinto said:

The 63.5% odds are specifically to come 1st in the group. WGF are usually pretty good at this stuff, but I reckon they have a typo in their spreadsheet somewhere

11/4 with our friends at SkyBet to win the group.

Still get 1/12 on us qualifying which is a bit of a worry.

[immcinto]

18 hours ago, ceudmilefailte said:

11/4 with our friends at SkyBet to win the group.

Still get 1/12 on us qualifying which is a bit of a worry.

I suspect that 99.4% chance you hear bandied about is generated from the same dodgy spreadsheet

[immcinto]

I reckon these are the odds for each game. Worked them out from historical odds on oddsportal. I swapped Norway/Scotland - So for Norway-Spain I used the Scotland-Spain odds

 

[ceudmilefailte]

12 minutes ago, immcinto said:

I reckon these are the odds for each game. Worked them out from historical odds on oddsportal. I swapped Norway/Scotland - So for Norway-Spain I used the Scotland-Spain odds

 

So Norway are about 40/1 to win all three games or 2.5%

 

[todd]

1 hour ago, immcinto said:

I reckon these are the odds for each game. Worked them out from historical odds on oddsportal. I swapped Norway/Scotland - So for Norway-Spain I used the Scotland-Spain odds

 

I'm clearly an idiot but that graphic's given me more questions than answers 😁

[ParisInAKilt]

Has any team failed to qualify automatically after winning their first 5 or similar amount of games?

[immcinto]

Norway would have to win all three games and Scotland would have to lose against Spain and not beat Georgia. Odds on that is 0.88%. So we have at least 99.12% chance of qualifying. Grab that 12/1 on offer at Skybet!

[ceudmilefailte]

9 minutes ago, immcinto said:

Norway would have to win all three games and Scotland would have to lose against Spain and not beat Georgia. Odds on that is 0.88%. So we have at least 99.12% chance of qualifying. Grab that 12/1 on offer at Skybet!

And even if all that happens we've got a play off to fall back on.

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

Yip, the last few Calculations on Qualification are spot on in my humble opinion!

[immcinto]

Using those odds I also calculate that Scotland have a 48% chance of winning the group.

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

4 hours ago, ceudmilefailte said:

And even if all that happens we've got a play off to fall back on.

Specifically on the Betting aspect of it. I checked Paddy Power an their odds are 1/12 for Scotland to finish in the Top 2 in the Group. So, if they finished 3rd and qualified via the play-off, you'd still lose. Which is quite interesting.

But, for qualification purposes, you are bang on the money! And to be honest, I don't really Gamble so that's 100% the important bit!

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

14 minutes ago, immcinto said:

Using those odds I also calculate that Scotland have a 48% chance of winning the group.

And the chances of Scotland NOT winning the Group but finishing 2nd and taking the last 2nd Seed Spot are way above 2%.

So by those calculations, Scotland have well above a 50% Chance of being a Pot 1 or Pot 2 Seed for the Finals.

WOW!

Just a note, I also checked BetFair, and the 1/12 are for a Top 2 Group finish as well. Not solely to qualify.

[immcinto]

>>So we have at least 99.12% chance of qualifying

 

This number didn;t take into account that Norway have to win by 2 clear goals if Scotland draw with Georgia

Taking this into accounts pushes Scotland's chance of qualifying up to 99.46%