deecie Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Aberdeen should return to being the Capital regardless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kumnio Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Yes, it should go to the city with the highest yes percentage. Dundee Capital of Scotland 2016. Scary thought. We would need an airport expansion first though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 East Dunbartonshire YES ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giblet Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Looking at the figures, think Glasgow might give Yes a 30k to 40k advantage, not as big as I thought before seeing the figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotlad Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 East Dunbartonshire YES ??? That was my reaction too. Maybe the OP has his Dunbartonshires mixed up. That said, I was up in Milngavie recently and I saw a few cars with Yes stickers, so you never know. I really hope Edinburgh votes Yes. Well, I hope everywhere does, but if we can win the central belt convincingly then I think we might just do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stapes Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Midlothian is going to be yes for sure yes. You know, I jump back and forth. After I speak to the oldies on a Saturday morning I get a bit depressed, and I live in a strong No part of the county. But in the estates - solid Yes, one mining village notwithstanding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giblet Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Edinburgh will be no, think around 45/55. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitre Posted September 2, 2014 Author Share Posted September 2, 2014 That was my reaction too. Maybe the OP has his Dunbartonshires mixed up. That said, I was up in Milngavie recently and I saw a few cars with Yes stickers, so you never know. I really hope Edinburgh votes Yes. Well, I hope everywhere does, but if we can win the central belt convincingly then I think we might just do it. No error. Although there is some geographical overlap, both MSPs for this area are SNP. Assuming the SNP vote holds for the referendum plus a % of Labour voters then it is winnable. West Dumbartonshire is Labour central. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brooky Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I think Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire are both going to be No - really hope I am wrong! I work in the Oil industry and so many people that I speak to are scared of change because they either already have lots of money or earn enough to pay for their lifestyle, they are scared of any change that could affect that. Especially the self employed contractors. As for Aberdeenshire, seeing more Yes banners than No Thanks ones but most of the No's seem to be from the Farmers, im guessing most of them will be voting No if they are farmers that get large subsidies - turkeys don't vote for xmas. Guess that could apply to a lot of areas in Scotland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WibbleWobble Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 This may help. The following table shows, the time of declaration from the 1997 referendum (add a bit on to get the estimated time for this month's vote due to the higher turnout), name of authority, size of electorate (from 2011) and (importantly) the percentage required to secure a Yes 50.1% vote based on a weighting from the 1997 referendum and the 2011 Holyrood election. So Yes should be aiming for over 55% in Glasgow but 35% in Dumfries and Galloway is still within range for Yes to secure a nationwide Yes vote. So assuming that Clackmannanshire and South Lanarkshire are first to declare, we should be looking at around 53% Yes from those two authorities to put Yes on track for victory. My understanding is that the vote will be announced by each local authority as the votes are counted so no need to wait until the entire country has been counted before we find out the result. We should have a good idea of the winner by around 3.00am I think. 00:41 Clackmannanshire 38,825 54.1 00:50 South Lanarkshire 249,127 52.1 01:49 West Lothian 131,107 55.4 01:54 Orkney 16,950 39.5 01:59 Renfrewshire 130,992 47.6 02:11 Na h-Eileanan Siar 22,274 62.5 02:15 Moray 69,747 53.6 02:20 Dundee 106,775 58.5 02:27 East Renfrewshire 69,447 41.6 02:31 South Ayrshire 90,843 44.9 02:37 East Lothian 78,179 48.6 02:44 Dumfries and G 117,617 35.2 02:53 Falkirk 116,495 56.9 02:57 Stirling 66,483 49.7 03:02 Perth and Kinross 112,324 49.0 03:05 Edinburgh 344,852 44.3 03:09 Midlothian 65,024 52.1 03:13 Shetland 17,845 41.6 03:17 W Dunbartonshire 68,501 53.1 03:21 Inverclyde 61,605 50.4 03:27 Angus 87,428 51.0 03:32 Glasgow 472,545 55.8 03:36 Fife 283,429 48.1 03:40 Scottish Borders 90,422 38.6 03:46 East Ayrshire 96,330 56.0 03:50 North Ayrshire 109,330 54.1 04:07 North Lanarkshire 255,865 54.9 04:13 Aberdeen 167,544 46.4 04:16 East Dunbartonshire 82,032 46.8 04:20 Aberdeenshire 193,636 46.9 04:27 Argyll and Bute 68,586 49.3 05:44 Highland 181,047 50.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armchair Bob Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 You know, I jump back and forth. After I speak to the oldies on a Saturday morning I get a bit depressed, and I live in a strong No part of the county. But in the estates - solid Yes, one mining village notwithstanding. Bonnyrigg is so yes it is already experimenting with electing the likes of the Greens. Can't speak for the rest of Midlothian. Is the intractable area Gorebridge? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armchair Bob Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 No error. Although there is some geographical overlap, both MSPs for this area are SNP. Assuming the SNP vote holds for the referendum plus a % of Labour voters then it is winnable. West Dumbartonshire is Labour central. West Dumbarton around the Vale may have been Labour since Moses was a boy but it has come surprisingly close to electing an SNP representative several times, and Clydebank in the eastern part of the council area has one now. I don't think it will take many Labour supporters to go yes for that council area to return a majority. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 By the sounds of it No could win every single area bar Dundee and still lose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave78 Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 This may help. The following table shows, the time of declaration from the 1997 referendum (add a bit on to get the estimated time for this month's vote due to the higher turnout), name of authority, size of electorate (from 2011) and (importantly) the percentage required to secure a Yes 50.1% vote based on a weighting from the 1997 referendum and the 2011 Holyrood election. So Yes should be aiming for over 55% in Glasgow but 35% in Dumfries and Galloway is still within range for Yes to secure a nationwide Yes vote. So assuming that Clackmannanshire and South Lanarkshire are first to declare, we should be looking at around 53% Yes from those two authorities to put Yes on track for victory. My understanding is that the vote will be announced by each local authority as the votes are counted so no need to wait until the entire country has been counted before we find out the result. We should have a good idea of the winner by around 3.00am I think. 00:41 Clackmannanshire 38,825 54.1 00:50 South Lanarkshire 249,127 52.1 01:49 West Lothian 131,107 55.4 01:54 Orkney 16,950 39.5 01:59 Renfrewshire 130,992 47.6 02:11 Na h-Eileanan Siar 22,274 62.5 02:15 Moray 69,747 53.6 02:20 Dundee 106,775 58.5 02:27 East Renfrewshire 69,447 41.6 02:31 South Ayrshire 90,843 44.9 02:37 East Lothian 78,179 48.6 02:44 Dumfries and G 117,617 35.2 02:53 Falkirk 116,495 56.9 02:57 Stirling 66,483 49.7 03:02 Perth and Kinross 112,324 49.0 03:05 Edinburgh 344,852 44.3 03:09 Midlothian 65,024 52.1 03:13 Shetland 17,845 41.6 03:17 W Dunbartonshire 68,501 53.1 03:21 Inverclyde 61,605 50.4 03:27 Angus 87,428 51.0 03:32 Glasgow 472,545 55.8 03:36 Fife 283,429 48.1 03:40 Scottish Borders 90,422 38.6 03:46 East Ayrshire 96,330 56.0 03:50 North Ayrshire 109,330 54.1 04:07 North Lanarkshire 255,865 54.9 04:13 Aberdeen 167,544 46.4 04:16 East Dunbartonshire 82,032 46.8 04:20 Aberdeenshire 193,636 46.9 04:27 Argyll and Bute 68,586 49.3 05:44 Highland 181,047 50.8 Excellent info, thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snoopyhill Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Scary thought. We would need an airport expansion first though Leuchars would be available after a Yes vote! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khana Lagur Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Edinburgh will be no, think around 45/55. Hope you're wrong. I'd have had Edinburgh down as a No at the outset but I'm astonished at some of the support for Yes I've seen across the city. Areas such as Craigleith, Craigentinny, Orchard and even some parts of Blackhall are peppered with Yes posters. I'm also astonished at some of the archetypal Morningside ladies that are Yes voters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hunchy Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Changed a couple, a fair few I don't know enough on to predict. From canvassing that I've seen I reckon Aberdeenshire will be Yes while the city is No. North Ayrshire is a stick on for Yes I reckon. from talking to my folks in west kilbride there seems to be a mixed vote. the council scheme is mostly no (mostly hard core rangers fans) but lots of yes from there age group. wanderer might be able to give a better view of the rest of the wk voting mix. dad was saying there are loads of no flags/banners on the shore road between west kilbride and ardrossan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littleboyblue Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 STV talking about 32 individual declarations. Think I like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UPROAR Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Edinburgh will be no, think around 45/55. I agree but I don't think we're 10 points behind. Question is how far behind the national average should we be in Edinburgh ? I was laughing at the 60/40 scotland wide polls - we would be further behind than that in Edinburgh and we certainly are not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giblet Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 (edited) BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM! Voting size based on a 80% turnout, with additional 250k registered from Aprils register. Edited September 3, 2014 by giblet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitre Posted September 11, 2014 Author Share Posted September 11, 2014 BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM! Voting size based on a 80% turnout, with additional 250k registered from Aprils register. Could you send me a copy of this via email? Will PM you my address. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
albathebrave Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Am predicting 61% yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Am predicting 61% yes I love your unrelenting optomism Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TA Torr Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 bump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giblet Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 ones to watch? Fife and the two Lanarkshires for me along with Aberdeen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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