Indyref 2 (2)

[Caledonian Craig]

I did hear unionist media touting a poll putting Labour level with the SNP in Scotland.

If people want to vote Labour (who truly support independence) they'll be in for a shock. FFS years ago even Ken Livingstone on Election Night was adamant Scottish Labour had to split from the Westminster branch to be more appealing to Scottish voters. Nothing, absolutely nothing, has changed with Scottish Labour since then. A vote for Scottish Labour will be seen as a guaranteed support for the union. And Scottish Labour will do as they are telt by Keir Starmer.

[TDYER63]

The SNP are throwing everything at this seat they have been requesting help from all areas for canvassing and leaflet drop. 

What is it people on here are hoping for? A Labour win which , yes, may clear out the SNP, but could also backfire and set up a permanent return for unionist control in Scotland  . 
Or , an SNP win by the skin of their teeth and the hope that they realise that an SNP government is most certainly not a given.  

Sometimes you need to be careful what you wish for. 

 

[hampden_loon2878]

42 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

The SNP are throwing everything at this seat they have been requesting help from all areas for canvassing and leaflet drop. 

What is it people on here are hoping for? A Labour win which , yes, may clear out the SNP, but could also backfire and set up a permanent return for unionist control in Scotland  . 
Or , an SNP win by the skin of their teeth and the hope that they realise that an SNP government is most certainly not a given.  

Sometimes you need to be careful what you wish for. 

 

I want the SNP back, not green,new labour saltire mash up,, I want the snp that looked out for the interests of scotland and chased policies most likely to win over voters to the independence cause. 

[TDYER63]

3 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I want the SNP back, not green,new labour saltire mash up,, I want the snp that looked out for the interests of scotland and chased policies most likely to win over voters to the independence cause. 

I want that too but its probably going to come at a cost and may take a helluva long time to recover, if at all. I am not as confident as you that a clear out is going to change things massively. There needs to be people to step in. Who is that going to be? 

And just  so long as the people who are wanting this actually do  something constructive to help rather than just expect it all to happen. IMO there are too many people who think that just saying they want independence is enough and make no effort at all to progress it. 

[scotlad]

2 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I did hear unionist media touting a poll putting Labour level with the SNP in Scotland.

If people want to vote Labour (who truly support independence) they'll be in for a shock. FFS years ago even Ken Livingstone on Election Night was adamant Scottish Labour had to split from the Westminster branch to be more appealing to Scottish voters. Nothing, absolutely nothing, has changed with Scottish Labour since then. A vote for Scottish Labour will be seen as a guaranteed support for the union. And Scottish Labour will do as they are telt by Keir Starmer.

Aye, there was a poll by Survation which came out the other day showing them neck and neck for HR.  Survation tend to poll well for Labour (so much so that it's become a meme on social media) but even so, at the turn of the year even the most optimistic Labour supporter wouldn't have thought they'd be polling as well by now. 

The sad thing is, Labour's improvement in the polls hasn't come as a consequence of them appointing a charismatic, visionary new leader, or adopting an exciting new policy programme, it's come about as a result of the SNP scoring more own goals than Olivier Tebily on steroids.

The dilemma we face though is that although the SNP are in desperate need of a reality check and a clear-out of the careerists, yes-men (and women) and posers who inhabit the upper reaches of the party, a Labour renaissance will be used as an excuse to make independence even harder to achieve; "look, look, Scotland has gone home to Labour!  They don't want separatism after all, let's give them what they voted for...".

The current iteration of the SNP is crap but people should not underestimate how difficult the party's ascendency over the past decade and a half has been for the British political establishment, and for anyone in a position of power who has a vested interest in Scotland remaining in the UK. 

Edited August 25, 2023 by scotlad

[aaid]

24 minutes ago, scotlad said:

Aye, there was a poll by Survation which came out the other day showing them neck and neck for HR.  Survation tend to poll well for Labour (so much so that it's become a meme on social media) but even so, at the turn of the year even the most optimistic Labour supporter wouldn't have thought they'd be polling as well by now. 

The sad thing is, Labour's improvement in the polls hasn't come as a consequence of them appointing a charismatic, visionary new leader, or adopting an exciting new policy programme, it's come about as a result of the SNP scoring more own goals than Olivier Tebily on steroids.

The dilemma we face though is that although the SNP are in desperate need of a reality check and a clear-out of the careerists, yes-men (and women) and posers who inhabit the upper reaches of the party, a Labour renaissance will be used as an excuse to make independence even harder to achieve; "look, look, Scotland has gone home to Labour!  They don't want separatism after all, let's give them what they voted for...".

The current iteration of the SNP is crap but people should not underestimate how difficult the party's ascendency over the past decade and a half has been for the British political establishment, and for anyone in a position of power who has a vested interest in Scotland remaining in the UK. 

That same poll also asked about support for the SNP green pact - it was commissioned by the Fergus Mutch/Geoff Aberdein group who are pro-fossil fuel.

It showed - from memory - amongst 2021 SNP voters, that there was majority support of something like 56% for the pact, opposition was something like 22% and the remainder didn’t have an opinion either way.  So quite the difference in attitudes amongst the electorate than those clamouring for the deal to be scrapped would claim.  

[Ally Bongo]

10 minutes ago, aaid said:

That same poll also asked about support for the SNP green pact - it was commissioned by the Fergus Mutch/Geoff Aberdein group who are pro-fossil fuel.

It showed - from memory - amongst 2021 SNP voters, that there was majority support of something like 56% for the pact, opposition was something like 22% and the remainder didn’t have an opinion either way.  So quite the difference in attitudes amongst the electorate than those clamouring for the deal to be scrapped would claim.  

That was 2021 and it's more than likely that the same 56% voted for Humza as leader

The problem is that those 56% are probably the vast bulk of what is left of the membership

[PapofGlencoe]

1 hour ago, scotlad said:

The dilemma we face though is that although the SNP are in desperate need of a reality check and a clear-out of the careerists, yes-men (and women) and posers who inhabit the upper reaches of the party, a Labour renaissance will be used as an excuse to make independence even harder to achieve; "look, look, Scotland has gone home to Labour!  They don't want separatism after all, let's give them what they voted for...".

 

i agree wuth you but i'm less worried about certain aspects, they'll harp on like that but everyone and their granny knows Scots are split down the middle on the big question.  if they try to portray it any other way, we're big enough and ugly enough nowadays to know it's not true.  We're not the Scotland of the 1990s anymore.

You never know what can happen though.  the pro-independence parties in Catalonia have been savaged in the last election but hold the balance of power!  would be funny if the SNP lost half their seats but Labour needed their help to form a government.

[PapofGlencoe]

56 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

That was 2021 and it's more than likely that the same 56% voted for Humza as leader

The problem is that those 56% are probably the vast bulk of what is left of the membership

There are plenty people who support the Green agenda by the way and quite like Patrick Harvie.  My wife included!  Despite the noise, the greens are a growing party and a significant part of the independence future.  The strategy in the here and now has been led up a jaggy, boggy hill and poorly managed... but if there's anything London fear, it's the demographic shift occurring.  The Greens are part of that.  

Also see those that think we can't have a Bottle return scheme and whinge about heat pumps; honestly, they're being played.  These are reasonable policies I expect any green party to put forward (and glad the SNP agreed too).

It's such a waste of hot energy attacking the greens, in my view.  

[duncan II]

3 hours ago, TDYER63 said:

IMO there are too many people who think that just saying they want independence is enough and make no effort at all to progress it. 

That's me. I want independence with all my heart, have all my adult life, will continue to do so. Referendum knocked the stuffing out of me. Current shenanigans not helping reinvigorate my enthusiasm. Meh, the people weren't interested in 2014, well, not enough of them. Struggling to see, even if I could find the enthusiasm, what could be done to get more doubters on board. We won the argument last time and it wasn't enough.

[TDYER63]

1 hour ago, duncan II said:

That's me. I want independence with all my heart, have all my adult life, will continue to do so. Referendum knocked the stuffing out of me. Current shenanigans not helping reinvigorate my enthusiasm. Meh, the people weren't interested in 2014, well, not enough of them. Struggling to see, even if I could find the enthusiasm, what could be done to get more doubters on board. We won the argument last time and it wasn't enough.

You might not put much effort in but neither do you moan your head off blaming everyone else whilst at the same time making no effort. 

The current situation understandably wears people down, I for one do not have the energy I had a few years ago. But I try to keep positive and when I get despondent and think ‘fuck,  this is just a waste of time ‘ , I  then think of all the people who were in the SNP for decades when they were a wee diddy party getting laughed at and independence was a pipe dream, and how they continued to fight for it. 

We are are a million miles closer now no matter how grim some people try to paint things, and I am not prepared to let all that hard work come to nothing , whether it be those folk from the early days, or the effort that went in by the diverse movement leading up to Indyref. 
Despite all the shite and mud slinging thats been thrown at the SNP, some warranted some not, almost half the country still support independence. That is a massive headache for the unionist parties. 

I would honestly be the worst politician in history but I am trying to do what I can to influence things in any small way , like speaking out about things that are unpopular , wherever possible , by going to branch meetings and attending wider SNP / independence meetings. One person will make little difference but a large number could change things. 

It takes a bit of effort though and its much easier just to sit on social media greetin about it and pointing fingers of blame . 

 

 

[Ally Bongo]

Radio 4 Any Questions 8pm from Peterhead

Stephen Flynn SNP

Rachael Hamilton Tory

Daniel Johnson Red Tory

And

Alex Salmond ALBA

[hampden_loon2878]

6 hours ago, aaid said:

That same poll also asked about support for the SNP green pact - it was commissioned by the Fergus Mutch/Geoff Aberdein group who are pro-fossil fuel.

It showed - from memory - amongst 2021 SNP voters, that there was majority support of something like 56% for the pact, opposition was something like 22% and the remainder didn’t have an opinion either way.  So quite the difference in attitudes amongst the electorate than those clamouring for the deal to be scrapped would claim.  

the question should be asked, would those in support of the pact still support the snp if it ended, thats the question that needs asked as i can bet my house on it that less "snp" supporters would turn their back on the snp if the pact was ended as opposed to snp voters that will turn their back on them as things stand

[Dave78]

1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

the question should be asked, would those in support of the pact still support the snp if it ended, thats the question that needs asked as i can bet my house on it that less "snp" supporters would turn their back on the snp if the pact was ended as opposed to snp voters that will turn their back on them as things stand

Further to the point you make above, you have to think about where those 'lost' voters go.

Those that would leave the SNP upon ending the pact would transfer to the Greens. Those that are lost by continuation of the pact go where? The only logical assumption is to one of the unionist parties.

[Caledonian Craig]

7 hours ago, PapofGlencoe said:

i agree wuth you but i'm less worried about certain aspects, they'll harp on like that but everyone and their granny knows Scots are split down the middle on the big question.  if they try to portray it any other way, we're big enough and ugly enough nowadays to know it's not true.  We're not the Scotland of the 1990s anymore.

You never know what can happen though.  the pro-independence parties in Catalonia have been savaged in the last election but hold the balance of power!  would be funny if the SNP lost half their seats but Labour needed their help to form a government.

Guaranteed a Labour majority in Scotland and the UK media would take that as a solid enough reason to say Scots do not want independence. It is what they and unionists parties have always done. 

At the last election they excused away SNP success by claiming not all SNP voters support independemce but are adamant all Tory, Labour and LibDem voters in Scotland support the union. Sadly, it seems, independence supporters who vote for those parties are either too daft or do not care that they are being portrayed as unionists. Any call for an IndyRef will hold no grounds for debate either since the majority of voters in Scotland will be painted as union-backers. 

Edited August 25, 2023 by Caledonian Craig

[hampden_loon2878]

39 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

Further to the point you make above, you have to think about where those 'lost' voters go.

Those that would leave the SNP upon ending the pact would transfer to the Greens. Those that are lost by continuation of the pact go where? The only logical assumption is to one of the unionist parties.

yup, i agree 100%

[Dave78]

10 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Any call for an IndyRef will hold no grounds for debate either since the majority of voters in Scotland will be painted as union-backers. 

At this stage in the game, any calls for Indyref2 are dead in the water. It's really going to be a 'generation' before the next one.

I'm leaning towards thinking the SNP probably need to spend some time in opposition.

1 minute ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

yup, i agree 100%

The pact with the Greens made sense when securing a pro-independence majority in Holyrood strengthened the case for indyref2. Now that's constitutionally and politically dead, what purpose does the pact actually serve for the SNP?

[aaid]

24 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

At this stage in the game, any calls for Indyref2 are dead in the water. It's really going to be a 'generation' before the next one.

I'm leaning towards thinking the SNP probably need to spend some time in opposition.

 

That reminds me very much of someone I know who voted for Boris Johnson in 2019.  He didn’t vote for Brexit, didn’t particularly support Johnson, knew exactly what he was like but just wanted “Brexit to be over”. He gets very ratty when you remind him of that and tell him that he voted for all this chaos. 

[Dave78]

8 minutes ago, aaid said:

That reminds me very much of someone I know who voted for Boris Johnson in 2019.  He didn’t vote for Brexit, didn’t particularly support Johnson, knew exactly what he was like but just wanted “Brexit to be over”. He gets very ratty when you remind him of that and tell him that he voted for all this chaos. 

Difference being, "chaos" (in the form of Starmer's tory-lite rule) is what i think is required to refocus the Yes movement.

I can see where you're coming from with the comparison though. Voters are quite willing to support flawed candidates if they think doing so will achieve their main objective. The SNP are right to be worried about Alba, if only that they might be the tail that wags the SNP dog.

 

[Hertsscot]

36 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

At this stage in the game, any calls for Indyref2 are dead in the water. It's really going to be a 'generation' before the next one.

I'm leaning towards thinking the SNP probably need to spend some time in opposition.

Be careful what you wish for. A lot of damage could be done if someone else is in power in Holyrood and it will take decades to undo. As far as the GE is concerned any decline in votes for SNP (or Greens if they can come to some agreement) will be seized upon by Unionists, red or blue. 

In the meantime there are things we can do, the Business in Scotland march and rally Saturday week, the Chain of Freedom event in October. It's easy to write off these events but every bit counts. I'm new to chapping doors but I've done a bit just recently and I'm not sure (where I am at least) that there's been much change in voter intentions. What there is, is a lot of disillusionment with politics and politicians of all stripes. We've got a few important months ahead of us and we need to make sure as indy supporters that we're not creating some sort of self-fulfilling prophecy where we think the Unionist parties will win and so we don't do what we can.

 

[Hertsscot]

Talking of Labour ..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-66543735

[Dave78]

1 minute ago, Hertsscot said:

Be careful what you wish for. A lot of damage could be done if someone else is in power in Holyrood and it will take decades to undo. As far as the GE is concerned any decline in votes for SNP (or Greens if they can come to some agreement) will be seized upon by Unionists, red or blue. 

I get all that. 

But from my objective ivory tower in the wealthy former British colony of the budget-surplus-making-sovereign-wealth-fund-rich Emerald Isle, that's exactly what i think is required to move the tide of independence up the shore.

 

1 minute ago, Hertsscot said:

In the meantime there are things we can do, the Business in Scotland march and rally Saturday week, the Chain of Freedom event in October. It's easy to write off these events but every bit counts. I'm new to chapping doors but I've done a bit just recently and I'm not sure (where I am at least) that there's been much change in voter intentions. What there is, is a lot of disillusionment with politics and politicians of all stripes. We've got a few important months ahead of us and we need to make sure as indy supporters that we're not creating some sort of self-fulfilling prophecy where we think the Unionist parties will win and so we don't do what we can.

 

Yes, keeping independence alive and visible will be more important than ever during the time of the nationalists being out of power. And i've no doubt that will happen 

[Och Aye]

9 minutes ago, Hertsscot said:

Be careful what you wish for. A lot of damage could be done if someone else is in power in Holyrood and it will take decades to undo. As far as the GE is concerned any decline in votes for SNP (or Greens if they can come to some agreement) will be seized upon by Unionists, red or blue. 

In the meantime there are things we can do, the Business in Scotland march and rally Saturday week, the Chain of Freedom event in October. It's easy to write off these events but every bit counts. I'm new to chapping doors but I've done a bit just recently and I'm not sure (where I am at least) that there's been much change in voter intentions. What there is, is a lot of disillusionment with politics and politicians of all stripes. We've got a few important months ahead of us and we need to make sure as indy supporters that we're not creating some sort of self-fulfilling prophecy where we think the Unionist parties will win and so we don't do what we can.

 

Well said👍

[Dave78]

2 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

 

 

Yes, keeping independence alive and visible will be more important than ever during the time of the nationalists being out of power. And i've no doubt that will happen 

Reading this back, i should clarify that i'm sure indy will be kept alive, not that pro-indy parties will necessarily lose control of Holyrood.

[Kirk]

9 hours ago, duncan II said:

That's me. I want independence with all my heart, have all my adult life, will continue to do so. Referendum knocked the stuffing out of me. Current shenanigans not helping reinvigorate my enthusiasm. Meh, the people weren't interested in 2014, well, not enough of them. Struggling to see, even if I could find the enthusiasm, what could be done to get more doubters on board. We won the argument last time and it wasn't enough.

Basically feel the same totally scunnered with it all. Got told I was a unionist on FB the other night as I said the SNP was a shambles. Some folk just canny see sense or reason. They're falling apart and as someone else said there's no chance of a second Indyref anytime soon