Holyrood Elections 2021

[exile]

4 minutes ago, Newryrep said:

Overview folks  ?

Right now, SNP on 37 seats, with 3 gains.  However, some of those gains could be offset by losses on the list. Conventional wisdom would say one of the 3 could be an actual net gain - Angus Robertson in Ed Central, taking over the  post deserted by the Baroness. 

The main thing seems to be unionist tactical voting to protect incumbent unionists.

So far looks as if Alba not doing well and Alex Salmond not confident of a breakthrough. 

A lot still to play for.

[AlfieMoon]

11 minutes ago, aaid said:

Massive amount of tactical voting by the Unionists going on in constituency seats which the SNP are targeting.

SNP probably on a net +1 right now, so likely to get 64-66 seats so its a toin coss whether or not they get an overall majority on their own.

Could all come down to Dumbarton where there is a recount with the margin rumoured to be in the low double figures.

*should* be a bigger pro-Indy majority with the Greens expected to better their tally.

Alba look like they'll do nothing.
 

Aaid, is there any likelihood of SNP picking up new list votes. Thinking of regions that they got none but didn’t have a clean sweep of seats. 

Lothian? 
Mid & Fife? 
 

I imagine they’ve been pushing the both votes SNP message strong in these places but not sure how far off they were. 

 

[hampden_loon2878]

Alba have got no seats,, i am sure there are the usual unpleasant folk on here who will be delighted, unfortunately we are going to need that other independence party, its a shame that foresight is missing here,,

 

[hampden_loon2878]

3 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

Aaid, is there any likelihood of SNP picking up new list votes. Thinking of regions that they got none but didn’t have a clean sweep of seats. 

Lothian? 
Mid & Fife? 
 

I imagine they’ve been pushing the both votes SNP message strong in these places but not sure how far off they were. 

 

No

[kumnio]

Baillie wins on the recount apparently 

[King Of Paisley]

16 minutes ago, Broath Boy said:

Please God be true.

The fat slug had a recount rejected. Apparently very downbeat. 

Sad thing is, she is No 1 on the list 😡😡😡

[AlfieMoon]

Dumbarton nowhere near as close as rumoured. Just shows how much shite flying about. 

[aaid]

5 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

Aaid, is there any likelihood of SNP picking up new list votes. Thinking of regions that they got none but didn’t have a clean sweep of seats. 

Lothian? 
Mid & Fife? 
 

I imagine they’ve been pushing the both votes SNP message strong in these places but not sure how far off they were. 

 

Hard to see it.

1500 majority for Baillie.  I suspect that blows the majority.

[hampden_loon2878]

Just now, aaid said:

Hard to see it.

1500 majority for Baillie.  I suspect that blows the majority.

Of course it does, lets not sugar coat this. List votes for the snp will returned 1 list seat,, shocking considering unionist tactical voting 

[AlfieMoon]

1 minute ago, aaid said:

Hard to see it.

1500 majority for Baillie.  I suspect that blows the majority.

Yeah, you’d think so.  Got to be a chance of a few more slipping away tomorrow with the level of tactical voting going on. 

[aaid]

2 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

Yeah, you’d think so.  Got to be a chance of a few more slipping away tomorrow with the level of tactical voting going on. 

There's only really two constituencies in play, Aberdeenshire West and Galloway and West Dumfries.

[TDYER63]

3 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Alba have got no seats,, i am sure there are the usual unpleasant folk on here who will be delighted, unfortunately we are going to need that other independence party, its a shame that foresight is missing here,,

 

If that is correct, the bigger loss for me is that he will disappear completely from politics . 

[Toepoke]

There should still be a strong pro independence majority. 

The SNP are polling below 50% so for them not to have a majority is the sign of a fair electoral system.

 

[King Of Paisley]

2 minutes ago, aaid said:

There's only really two constituencies in play, Aberdeenshire West and Galloway and West Dumfries.

Think you can forget those two, given the big swings to the Tories in the North East especially.

[hampden_loon2878]

2 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

If that is correct, the bigger loss for me is that he will disappear completely from politics . 

Its true 

[aaid]

3 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Of course it does, lets not sugar coat this. List votes for the snp will returned 1 list seat,, shocking considering unionist tactical voting 

Sorry, not really sure what your point is here.   You didn't want an SNP majority, the only thing that pisses you off is that the pro-Indy majority - which will likely be bigger - is with the Greens.

How long have people been saying "the SNP won't win all the constituencies, they'll need list seats to make up the numbers", but no, people with their cunning plans think they know better.

I take no pleasure out of the state of Alba, I think it's been a complete and total distraction and has caused damage - some of it irreparable - to the Indy movement although probably not the SNP in terms of electoral success.  

 

[hampden_loon2878]

3 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

There should still be a strong pro independence majority. 

The SNP are polling below 50% so for them not to have a majority is the sign of a fair electoral system.

 

Strong pro indy majority? The greens care more about a man being able to identify as a woman than gaining independence,, 

[aaid]

4 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

If that is correct, the bigger loss for me is that he will disappear completely from politics . 

The Alex Salmond who was a giant of Scottish Politics is long gone - probably should've stepped back and retired in 2014.

The Alex Salmond of today is a shadow of that, the smart person knows when the game is up and when to depart the field.

[aaid]

2 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Strong pro indy majority? The greens care more about a man being able to identify as a woman than gaining independence,, 

And you could say the same thing about Alba.

[hampden_loon2878]

1 minute ago, aaid said:

Sorry, not really sure what your point is here.   You didn't want an SNP majority, the only thing that pisses you off is that the pro-Indy majority - which will likely be bigger - is with the Greens.

How long have people been saying "the SNP won't win all the constituencies, they'll need list seats to make up the numbers", but no, people with their cunning plans think they know better.

I take no pleasure out of the state of Alba, I think it's been a complete and total distraction and has caused damage - some of it irreparable - to the Indy movement although probably not the SNP in terms of electoral success.  

 

Alba were a list party and would have done zero damage to the snp,, some of the shit said on here has been a disgrace,, internal polling for the alba party was sitting at 3.5% so it no shock to anyone in the party they never got any seats, folk were out giving their own time for independence and somehow some here find pleasure in them not managing to help the independence cause,, there will be some serious stuff that comes out from the snp,i just hope that we have independence by then

[AlfieMoon]

3 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Strong pro indy majority? The greens care more about a man being able to identify as a woman than gaining independence,, 

FFS. I get the fact that you’re disappointed about Alba and they were your chosen horse rather than the Greens - but if you’re serious about Indy, the Greens have clearly stated support for Indy and have been the ones who will be successful in seeing the SNP over the line.  

[aaid]

6 minutes ago, King Of Paisley said:

Think you can forget those two, given the big swings to the Tories in the North East especially.

I think it will be very difficult.

I think it will be a major shock if the SNP were to lose any of the remaining constituencies.   The only real question is what happens to the list in H&I and whether or not they retain the 1 list seat there and whether they lose 1 or 2 list seats in the South off the back of the constituency gains.

I suspect they'll end up with 64 - one short.

[TDYER63]

4 minutes ago, aaid said:

The Alex Salmond who was a giant of Scottish Politics is long gone - probably should've stepped back and retired in 2014.

The Alex Salmond of today is a shadow of that, the smart person knows when the game is up and when to depart the field.

In terms of his presence and influence you are probably right. But IMO his experience and dedication to independence will be missed , I dont think we can afford to lose politicians of his calibre entirely. 

[hampden_loon2878]

2 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

FFS. I get the fact that you’re disappointed about Alba and they were your chosen horse rather than the Greens - but if you’re serious about Indy, the Greens have clearly stated support for Indy and have been the ones who will be successful in seeing the SNP over the line.  

I am disappointed in indy supporters naiveté in not embracing tactical voting like the unionists have

[King Of Paisley]

2 minutes ago, aaid said:

I think it will be very difficult.

I think it will be a major shock if the SNP were to lose any of the remaining constituencies.   The only real question is what happens to the list in H&I and whether or not they retain the 1 list seat there and whether they lose 1 or 2 list seats in the South off the back of the constituency gains.

I suspect they'll end up with 64 - one short.

That sounds about right. Still made gains today and with a strong showing by the Greens in the list we will still be ok Indy majority wise.

64 seats is still a good result