Coronavirus

[phart]

 

Edited December 10, 2021 by phart

[thplinth]

A doubling period of 2.3 days implies the daily cases are rising exponentially at approximately 30%….per day.

It also means that every 2.3 days the new Omicrom cases will exceed the total of all cases before it. And that will repeat every 2.3 days…

[phart]

35%

it's ln(2)/ ln(1+0.35) = 2.309 days.

Online there are calculators that use the rule of 70 or 72 but those are approximations calibrated for slower growth.

doubling time = ln(2)/ln(1+(r/100))

[thplinth]

I am sticking with the Al Bartlett short cut method. Just divide the rate of growth into 70 to get the doubling period. (you can solve it for the % growth in this case)

This was posted on here a long time ago... coincidentally I started re-watching it the other day after stumbling on it again, hence my add on...

Humans don't understand the exponential function...

 

Edited December 10, 2021 by thplinth

[thplinth]

1min 47s.

2.3=70/?

2.3x?=70

?=70/2.3

30.4%=70/2.3

You sure 35% is right? sounds a bit high. I am only asking for Al. 

[thplinth]

I love that lecture.

The example of the bottle that has a single bacterium in it that doubles in size every minute (from 11am to 12pm) and is of a size such that in exactly one hour of doubling the bottle will be full....

So what time is the bottle half full?

11.59!

And what time does a bacterium realize it is running out space?

Time = % Full

11.54 = 1.6% 

11.55 = 3.1%

11.56 = 6.3%

11.57 = 12.5%

11.58 = 25%

11.59 = 50%

12.00 = 100%

Just 6 minutes before noon and only 6 doubles after only being 1.6% full it is full. It creeps up on you and then suddenly you are fucked.

As the man says exponential growth is the cornerstone of most economic strategies and it is madness.

Sorry for the seeming tangent but it is actually very relevant.

Edited December 10, 2021 by thplinth

[phart]

"Al" even has a slide showing the same equation method. Just rejigged with a couple of more variables.

doubling time = log(2) / log(1 + increase) , where: increase is the constant growth rate expressed as a percentage value, doubling time is the time needed for the quantity to double in value for a specified constant growth rate.

[thplinth]

Well it is a short cut but 35% still seems very high in comparison. You sure you've not made a cunt of it? I have shown my 'workings' what were yours?

[phart]

 

[phart]

I've wrote my workings out twice. Not sure why you can't recognise them

Here's an online calculator put in 2.3 and see what you get

https://www.omnicalculator.com/math/doubling-time

[thplinth]

online calculator! pfft watch the video instead and learn some bush arithmetic and interesting stuff instead of cheating. 😀

[phart]

So anyway 35% it is. Glad we cleared that up.

 

[thplinth]

As the man says in his lecture, nothing stays exponential for long... it can't. It either fills the bottle, depletes the resource or kills us all. So yeah 30% or 35% is not really worth arguing about is it. In both situations the bottle is still half full at 11.59am.

edit: you have not shown your workings just a crappy half assed website. clear forfeit. 😀

Edited December 10, 2021 by thplinth

[Toepoke]

38 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Well it is a short cut but 35% still seems very high in comparison. You sure you've not made a cunt of it?

A career on the Open University beckons..

 

[phart]

This debate is a function of your innumeracy not mine.

I've shown my working twice, the video you cite uses the formula i used as shown on the screenshot. You just can't recognise it cause it is going right over your head.

that is the doubling rate formula

set r/100 as 35

and you get ln(2)/l(1.35) which is 2.309...

therefore r = 35%

you can even look up tables if you can't work with logs. Oh Surprised there it is 35% is 2.31. That looks familiar.

Anyway. I think this is a good metaphor for what happens when youtube mathematicians meets university taught mathematician. The covid arguments writ small.

[phart]

Here's the Taylor series graphs on wolfram showing you how the error in calculations increases as x increases.

[thplinth]

2 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

A career on the Open University beckons..

They would be queuing up. 😀 This is gold. Workings and everything!

I am still sticking with Al. He knows his shit.

 

[thplinth]

The supposed 'correction' to 35% was worthless, it added nothing to the point, nor changed the point. Especially considering it is an acknowledged shortcut.

Did it change the point that is was 30% v 35%? You are so desperate to score a win over nothing that even when you do it is pointless and pathetic.

You talk about numeracy skills in scathing tones but what about not being nuts. 

 

 

 

 

 

[thplinth]

The mad thing is I was trying to compliment what your were saying... let's go back to ignoring each other, my mistake. 😀 Seriously I did not mean to start this up again.

[Lamia]

Can we not get back to defining what a party is? 🤨😁

[thplinth]

Its not here. 😀

[Lamia]

24 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Its not here. 😀

I can't remember what one looks like! 😬

[thplinth]

18 minutes ago, Lamia said:

I can't remember what one looks like! 😬

Who do you reckon would have the best house party of all tambers (past present or future).

And why. 😀 

Edited December 11, 2021 by thplinth

[thplinth]

A Brant Grebner-Pistonbroke co-host event could sell a few tickets. Just saying...

[phart]

1 hour ago, Lamia said:

Can we not get back to defining what a party is? 🤨😁

It's pretty wild. Loads of folk I know are determined to go out regardless. The growth rate is amazing, i'm sort of wondering how long I can go without catching it. Rather than hoping to avoid it. Saying that they reckon with booster efficacy for infection might be at 75%. I'm due to meet friends a week tomorrow, will be in a house though. Last meet was scuppered with 2 positives. Tories making sure everyone doesn't give a fuck and possible seeding event from COP26 not really reflecting well on the political classes.