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We are fucked if these vaccines don't hold. 

Albeit, I think the likelihood is that even with the vaccines it won't be enough to avoid a catastrophic Christmas period for the NHS. Unless we can go back in time: do a virtual COP26, have proper testing of international travel and immediately start social distancing measures on discovery of the variant. 

What kind of red buttons do we have that we can press to help the NHS? Nurses out of retirement again, re-purposing to maximise ICU etc? I am worried about whether the doctors and nurses can cope, given their resilience is probably at an all time low (as per the stats you shared on mental health Phart).

 

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5 minutes ago, Morrisandmoo said:

We are fucked if these vaccines don't hold. 

Albeit, I think the likelihood is that even with the vaccines it won't be enough to avoid a catastrophic Christmas period for the NHS. Unless we can go back in time: do a virtual COP26, have proper testing of international travel and immediately start social distancing measures on discovery of the variant. 

What kind of red buttons do we have that we can press to help the NHS? Nurses out of retirement again, re-purposing to maximise ICU etc? I am worried about whether the doctors and nurses can cope, given their resilience is probably at an all time low (as per the stats you shared on mental health Phart).

 

South Africa had significant "decoupling" from cases with hospitilisation and deaths in comparison to the previous 3 waves, due to high previous infection rates with Delta.

Scotland has the best booster rollout of the 4 nations, but at the same time is a week further along the exponential curve. Which is 3 doubling times eek.

The main problem is whatever the percentage is of cases that translate to hospital admission the very shape of the cases curve means that approximately 30% of the wave total occurs in 1 week (30% of the total area under the curve occurs in a timeframe of 1 week) .

I think the vaccines are going to hold up well against serious outcomes especially if triple jagged. I am worried though about the amount of cases near the peak, as even a small number multipled by a very large number becomes a large number.

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2 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

They should take the patent and make it open source it's gone on too long. Too much money being made from protectionism.

I was reading one of the advanatges of the mRNA vaccine technology is how quickly it can be adapated and redeployed once you get a new sequence. It's really quite remarkable. In the same way WWII revolutioned atomic physics, rocketry etc this pandemic is potentially going to do the same for immunology.

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2 minutes ago, phart said:

They should take the patent and make it open source it's gone on too long. Too much money being made from protectionism.

I was reading one of the advanatges of the mRNA vaccine technology is how quickly it can be adapated and redeployed once you get a new sequence. It's really quite remarkable. In the same way WWII revolutioned atomic physics, rocketry etc this pandemic is potentially going to do the same for immunology.

Aye, you're right, it is an amazing breakthrough in technology and in the future it will change the way we treat lots of diseases. Not just viral infections. 

I am quite happy for "Big Pharma" to make a decent return on their investments. But I should declare a financial interest here in that my livelihood depends on Big Pharma. 😉 😁

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A Harvard study of 68 nations and 2,947 counties in the United States published in the European Journal of Epidemiology is shattering the argument that the mRNA therapeutic drugs being marketed as “vaccines” do anything significantly to stop the spread of Covid-19.

Increases in COVID 19 Are Unrelated To Levels of Vaccination Across 68 Countries and 2947 Counties in The United States

Findings

At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days (Fig. 1). In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people. Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days. The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplified, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal. Both countries have over 75% of their population fully vaccinated and have moreCOVID-19 cases per 1 million people than countries such as Vietnam and South Africa that have around 10% of their population fully vaccinated.

https://www.scribd.com/document/545827611/Increases-in-COVID-19-are-unrelated-to-levels-of-vaccination-across-68-countries-and-2947-counties-in-the-United-States#from_embed

...marginally positive association... FFS. 😀

 

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The vaccine “doesn’t stop you from getting [COVID] at all,” claimed Daniel Horowitz, a senior editor at the Blaze, in a tweet promoting a column he wrote trumpeting the research. The headline: “Harvard researcher finds absolutely no correlation between vax rates and COVID cases globally.” Supporters of Horowitz’s perspective tweeted the piece and posted it on Facebook, where it received more than 4,000 interactions, including 2,600 shares, according to data from CrowdTangle, the Facebook-owned analytics company. 

“That conclusion is misleading…This paper supports vaccination.” S.V. Subramanian (lead author of study)

Alas, there’s just one problem for Horowitz and company: S.V. Subramanian, the Harvard professor of population health and geography behind the paper, says the vaccine doubters are completely wrong.

“That conclusion is misleading and inaccurate,” Subramanian told me of Horowitz’s Blaze column over email. “This paper supports vaccination as an important strategy for reducing infection and transmission, along with hand-washing, mask-wearing, and physical distancing.”
 
 
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BoJo with a press conference, giving a covid update, excuse me, sorry a new deflection to hide his fuck ups tonight at 8PM. Wrongly or more wrongly, most people will ignore whatever shit he says, he has blood on his hands and coffins on his desk, as a direct result of being a useless inept two faced fucking cunt of epic proportions.

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17 minutes ago, kumnio said:

BoJo with a press conference, giving a covid update, excuse me, sorry a new deflection to hide his fuck ups tonight at 8PM. Wrongly or more wrongly, most people will ignore whatever shit he says, he has blood on his hands and coffins on his desk, as a direct result of being a useless inept two faced fucking cunt of epic proportions.

A fair analysis.

This Christmas party shite and all the furor around it destroyed the last hope of having any sort of co-operation on Covid by huge swathes of folk. I wonder how many of them ironically voted for him in the first place or Tories anyway.

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19 minutes ago, kumnio said:

BoJo with a press conference, giving a covid update, excuse me, sorry a new deflection to hide his fuck ups tonight at 8PM. Wrongly or more wrongly, most people will ignore whatever shit he says, he has blood on his hands and coffins on his desk, as a direct result of being a useless inept two faced fucking cunt of epic proportions.

The clues here I suspect it's just took off in London

 

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