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31 minutes ago, teecee- said:

Europeans class us as part of UK therefore we could be banned from travelling abroad.  The Air Bridge could be doomed.

Yeah, I can't understand why anybody would an air bridge with the UK. Well, I can - £££££££££. 

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28 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

186 today down south. I can see them having to go into lockdown again. If only we could close the border now.

It'd be a joke if it wasn't so serious and believe me, if you live here its no laughing matter.

I was looking at the number of weekly deaths per million between Scotland and England&Wales as a comparison earlier.

In both countries deaths started at almost exactly the same time* - w/e 15 March and followed almost the same rate of increase and they then fell at the almost exactly the same rate.   For some reason I don't understand Scotland plateaued for a couple of weeks and the started to decline whereas E&W continued to increase, hit a sharp peak and then declined, they both declined at the same rate though.   So throughout this period, they followed pretty much the same trajectory.

This changed though in the middle of May, when Scotland continued to decline at the same rate, but in E&W it declined at a much slower rate and its continued at that lower rate pretty much since then.

In Scotland the rate has slowed down over the last couple of weeks, but that's a function of the relatively low numbers of deaths, In England it's going at a similar rate but the numbers are a lot higher.

For the last week there are comparable figures - 2 weeks ago - the E&W deaths per million was 19 - in Scotland it was 6.5.

In Scotland, its not far from being eradicated - not that you can do that without a vaccine of course - in England it looks line its pretty much flatlining at about a 1000 deaths a week.

Seriously guys - you need to think about closing the border.

*a narrative has developed that Scotland was around two weeks behind England but I'm not sure that's necessarily true.  That week was the first week in which COVID deaths were reported in England, and none were reported in Scotland.  However, its also the first week that there started to be an increase in excess deaths in Scotland, so I suspect there's unreported COVID deaths in there.  Unfortunately the ONS doesn't produce weekly excess deaths for E&W - or if it does I couldn't find them - so I'm not sure if that's also the case there.

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1 hour ago, aaid said:

It'd be a joke if it wasn't so serious and believe me, if you live here its no laughing matter.

I was looking at the number of weekly deaths per million between Scotland and England&Wales as a comparison earlier.

In both countries deaths started at almost exactly the same time* - w/e 15 March and followed almost the same rate of increase and they then fell at the almost exactly the same rate.   For some reason I don't understand Scotland plateaued for a couple of weeks and the started to decline whereas E&W continued to increase, hit a sharp peak and then declined, they both declined at the same rate though.   So throughout this period, they followed pretty much the same trajectory.

This changed though in the middle of May, when Scotland continued to decline at the same rate, but in E&W it declined at a much slower rate and its continued at that lower rate pretty much since then.

In Scotland the rate has slowed down over the last couple of weeks, but that's a function of the relatively low numbers of deaths, In England it's going at a similar rate but the numbers are a lot higher.

For the last week there are comparable figures - 2 weeks ago - the E&W deaths per million was 19 - in Scotland it was 6.5.

In Scotland, its not far from being eradicated - not that you can do that without a vaccine of course - in England it looks line its pretty much flatlining at about a 1000 deaths a week.

Seriously guys - you need to think about closing the border.

*a narrative has developed that Scotland was around two weeks behind England but I'm not sure that's necessarily true.  That week was the first week in which COVID deaths were reported in England, and none were reported in Scotland.  However, its also the first week that there started to be an increase in excess deaths in Scotland, so I suspect there's unreported COVID deaths in there.  Unfortunately the ONS doesn't produce weekly excess deaths for E&W - or if it does I couldn't find them - so I'm not sure if that's also the case there.

NRS report weekly figures for all deaths and "possible covid" deaths. I don't think they don't report figures as "excess deaths" but it's pretty easy to work that out. 

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3 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

NRS report weekly figures for all deaths and "possible covid" deaths. I don't think they don't report figures as "excess deaths" but it's pretty easy to work that out. 

Both NRS and ONS publish the stats in spreadsheets broken down by weeks.  I think there's a slight difference between what they define as a week, in England, I think they might do Monday to Sunday, Scotland its Saturday to Friday, that makes sense as I think that's why when the ONS numbers come out on a Tuesday they are for the week before last, whereas when the NRS ones come out on a Thursday, they are for last week.   That doesn't make any difference as far as week to week number go though.

Both organisations report "COVID " as cases where that's appeared on the death certificate, so those are completely comparable.
 
NRS gives you "all deaths", "COVID", "5 year average" and excess deaths - excess deaths you could work out yourself from the delta between all deaths and the average but they do that calculation for you.

The equivalent spreadsheet from ONS only gives you the "5 year average total"  and the "COVID" deaths, for some reason it doesn't give you the 2020 total.   I'm not suggesting that there's anything suspicious in that per-se as I think that data is reported but in another form elsewhere, but it does seem a bit odd  that they wouldn't put that in this the spreadsheet.   I was interested in trends rather than numbers so I don't think COVID only vs Excess would make that much of difference, just show higher numbers but the rates would probably be similar.  I'm not aware of any particular concerns of an apparent discrepancy in the level of excess deaths between the two countries. 

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14 minutes ago, phart said:

 

Theresa May getting a lot of criticism on the local Facebook pages for voting against this.   That's pretty much unheard of, even with all the rubbish she got up to as PM, I've never seen this level of criticism directed towards her.

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Westminster is just a points-scoring lunchtime debating society.   Government is done from the cabinet... oh wait a minute.

You cannot of course use the L word in parliament, but fairly recently if caught out, a PM would have to resign.   Now?

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4 hours ago, exile said:

Do you know what the actual rule is? Is the quarantine for "Britons" or is it about direct flights to/from UK?

Put another way could you get ferry to Northern Ireland and then cross into the Republic without being stopped?

Presumably they coudn't stop you at the NI/RoI border since there's no border there? and presumably not at the port as if you get on/off there you could just claim to be a Briton asserting your right to use the Queen's Highway in another part of the UK?

 

 

 

Currently, folk arriving in Ireland just have to fill out a form with their contact details saying where they'll be self-isolating for the 14 days. I don't think it's enforced. I doubt the polis are checking up on folk.

Re the ferry to NI, i imagine the NI government also ask folk to self-isolate? I dunno.

As for asserting your right to use the Queen's highway as soon as you get off the boat at Larne...  that would probably find a sympathetic ear! :lol: 

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48 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

Currently, folk arriving in Ireland just have to fill out a form with their contact details saying where they'll be self-isolating for the 14 days. I don't think it's enforced. I doubt the polis are checking up on folk.

Re the ferry to NI, i imagine the NI government also ask folk to self-isolate? I dunno.

As for asserting your right to use the Queen's highway as soon as you get off the boat at Larne...  that would probably find a sympathetic ear! :lol: 

I get the impression Larne is a bit mental when it comes to the old orange flute and all that.

I'm a member of a private genealogy group on Facebook, everyone has Ulster Scots ancestry in Antrim and lot of us are DNA matches.   There's a woman who is from Larne.  Every now and then something on the chat will come up about some history stuff to do with loyalists and the others on the group who are also from Northern Ireland are slagging her off, going "oh xxx, you'd know all about that" or "paramilitaries., do you know them". I don't think she's at all like that, in fact I know she isn't and I take its a general slagging of Larne more anything else.   Given the people doing the slagging are from Belfast and Ballymena, it makes me wonder how mad Larne must be.

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5 minutes ago, aaid said:

I get the impression Larne is a bit mental when it comes to the old orange flute and all that.

I'm a member of a private genealogy group on Facebook, everyone has Ulster Scots ancestry in Antrim and lot of us are DNA matches.   There's a woman who is from Larne.  Every now and then something on the chat will come up about some history stuff to do with loyalists and the others on the group who are also from Northern Ireland are slagging her off, going "oh xxx, you'd know all about that" or "paramilitaries., do you know them". I don't think she's at all like that, in fact I know she isn't and I take its a general slagging of Larne more anything else.   Given the people doing the slagging are from Belfast and Ballymena, it makes me wonder how mad Larne must be.

I remember when me and the Irish missus moved from Glasgow to Dublin. Got the boat over to Larne during marching season. At the first roundabout from the ferry terminal a loyalist flute band had pitched up, giving it big licks as the 'official' welcoming party to the boats from Scotland.

Kinda hard to remove a first impression like that. :lol:

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2 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

I remember when me and the Irish missus moved from Glasgow to Dublin. Got the boat over to Larne during marching season. At the first roundabout from the ferry terminal a loyalist flute band had pitched up, giving it big licks as the 'official' welcoming party to the boats from Scotland.

Kinda hard to remove a first impression like that. :lol:

Did you think it was especially for you and get upset when you found out it wasn't? 

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1 minute ago, aaid said:

Did you think it was especially for you and get upset when you found out it wasn't? 

What do you mean 'found out it wasn't for me'?

I got out the car, thanked the lads for their hospitality, and joined in. I'm a class act on the auld Lambeg, if i do say so myself! 

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US just reported almost 48k new cases which is more than the Brazilian increase. worldwide 200k new cases. There seems to have been a right way and a wrong way to go about things.

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1 hour ago, phart said:

US just reported almost 48k new cases which is more than the Brazilian increase. worldwide 200k new cases. There seems to have been a right way and a wrong way to go about things.

Well I suppose in the US, you have the added dimension of the president being more focussed on being re-elected than in dealing with the pandemic.

Not that the UKG have done a good job, far from it, but it doesn't bear thinking about what the situation would be if COVID had hit six months earlier when we were right in the middle of all the Brexit stuff going on in Westminster.

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Over 1000 new cases a day in the UK (which probably means over 10,000 in reality) and folk are behaving like everything is back to normal. Mental. It seems like they have gone back to the "herd immunity" plan. 

 

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31 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Over 1000 new cases a day in the UK (which probably means over 10,000 in reality) and folk are behaving like everything is back to normal. Mental. It seems like they have gone back to the "herd immunity" plan. 

 

Gone back? They never left it.

Slight change of plan to make sure ICU's weren't overrun, but the plan is still to "take it on the chin".

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11 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

Gone back? They never left it.

Slight change of plan to make sure ICU's weren't overrun, but the plan is still to "take it on the chin".

Aye, I think you're right.

I think they pretended that wasn't the plan for a while but I don't think the pretence is even there now. The worst bit, for me, is that they are going to start invading Scotland from 15th July and bringing their infection with them.

 

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

Over 1000 new cases a day in the UK (which probably means over 10,000 in reality) and folk are behaving like everything is back to normal. Mental. It seems like they have gone back to the "herd immunity" plan. 

 

There's slightly more anecdotal evidence herd immunity isn't even a thing with Covid in any coherent long term fashion.

In Sweden where this approach was tried is getting preliminary reports back that only 7% of the population has any sort of antibodies so as their total cases continue to go up it's still a fraction of what it needs to be to be effective.

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1 hour ago, phart said:

There's slightly more anecdotal evidence herd immunity isn't even a thing with Covid in any coherent long term fashion.

In Sweden where this approach was tried is getting preliminary reports back that only 7% of the population has any sort of antibodies so as their total cases continue to go up it's still a fraction of what it needs to be to be effective.

And they still don't know how much immunity (if any) people will have or for how long it will last.

 

 

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65,000 excess deaths in the UK up to 12th June according to ONS. That's 12,000 more than the number of deaths with COVD mentioned in the DC.

22,0000 more than positive COVID test deaths. 

Why are the media not demanding explanations for these discrepancies ?

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2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

65,000 excess deaths in the UK up to 12th June according to ONS. That's 12,000 more than the number of deaths with COVD mentioned in the DC.

22,0000 more than positive COVID test deaths. 

Why are the media not demanding explanations for these discrepancies ?

been asking the same question for months - the excess deaths figure is shocking (even the official figure is bad given 20000 was considered 'good'

still the media would rather concentrate on captain tom/Clapping on Thursdays etc but avoid serious comparisons with other countries and failing  to point out the ludicrous situation where greek people had to quarantine flying into the UK given their respective countries records on covid

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From telegraph

Nicola Sturgeon should examine introducing quarantine for English visitors to Scotland if the number of coronavirus cases south of the Border rises, one of her most trusted advisers has said.

Prof Devi Sridhar, who has played a key role in helping Ms Sturgeon formulate her Covid-19 strategy, said Scotland was trying to eliminate the virus but England's strategy was to "reopen as soon as possible" despite having up to 6,000 new daily cases.

She predicted Scotland could eliminate coronavirus by the end of the summer if the decline in new cases continues. There were no more deaths reported in Scotland on Sunday, for the third day running.

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1 hour ago, phart said:

From telegraph

Nicola Sturgeon should examine introducing quarantine for English visitors to Scotland if the number of coronavirus cases south of the Border rises, one of her most trusted advisers has said.

Prof Devi Sridhar, who has played a key role in helping Ms Sturgeon formulate her Covid-19 strategy, said Scotland was trying to eliminate the virus but England's strategy was to "reopen as soon as possible" despite having up to 6,000 new daily cases.

She predicted Scotland could eliminate coronavirus by the end of the summer if the decline in new cases continues. There were no more deaths reported in Scotland on Sunday, for the third day running.

Surprised  how depressing I found that to read and its a bit like if my aunty had balls.  

What''ll more likely happen is there'll be a massive spike following English holidays and then followed by loads of 'SNP Bad' with me teaching phonics again until Spring.  

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1 hour ago, phart said:

From telegraph

Nicola Sturgeon should examine introducing quarantine for English visitors to Scotland if the number of coronavirus cases south of the Border rises, one of her most trusted advisers has said.

Prof Devi Sridhar, who has played a key role in helping Ms Sturgeon formulate her Covid-19 strategy, said Scotland was trying to eliminate the virus but England's strategy was to "reopen as soon as possible" despite having up to 6,000 new daily cases.

She predicted Scotland could eliminate coronavirus by the end of the summer if the decline in new cases continues. There were no more deaths reported in Scotland on Sunday, for the third day running.

I was watching her being interviewed on Politics Scotland yesterday by Gordon Brewer and he was doing his absolute best to get her to criticise Nicola Sturgeon and wasn't very successful.

The next interview was with the outgoing Auditor General for Scotland and he tried the same track - albeit on different issues, was focusing on the fiscal framework and didn't get any further with her.

I completely get that a standard interviewer's technique is to play devil's advocate and put a contrary view and to test those arguments out - that's a perfectly acceptable approach, although one that seems to me to have become almost universal.   

Example, with the AG, talking about problems with the Fiscal Framework - her general view was that it had problems but that we know no a lot more about the underlying taxbase of Scotland and the framework is due to be reviewed in 2022 - Brewer's whole approach, rather than focusing on what needs to change - which you would think would be the obvious questions to ask - was "So John Swinney was stupid to sign up to this in the first place".

I think a lot of people confuse what is legitimate questioning from the Media as being SNPBad - this was as naked an example as I've seen.

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