Euro 2020 Playoffs (The REAL poll)

[dohadeer]

1 minute ago, mrniaboc said:

I think that's even doing Scotland a disservice! We very rarely lose to teams below pot 1 and 2 at Hampden. 

What do you mean by pot 1 and 2?

[The_Dark_Knight]

5 minutes ago, dohadeer said:

Can we just break this down a bit further please, because I'm really confused.

Supposing we get drawn against - worst case scenario - Romania, in our home semi-final. This is a one-off home tie, which includes extra time and penalties. What do you think the percentage chances of Scotland progressing are, compared to Romania progressing?

I would have that as 60/40 in Romania's favour.

What percentage do you make it?

Honestly, I'm not going to look into it as much as others will. It's a waste of time.

Suffice to say, bring on the WC qualifiers.

[Texas Pete]

19 minutes ago, dohadeer said:

I'll give you some credit and say that your percentages are nowhere near as incorrect as Mr '0.01%.'

However, you've gone way too far the other way.

Even our most favourable draw puts us nowhere near 50%, and our toughest possible draw would put us well below 25%.

We’ll probably be favourites in the first match and if we are at home in the second match we won’t be much longer than evens to win it. Maybe 2/1 against if it’s Serbia. 

Granted, the bookies odds are stingier than the actual chances of something happening but we have a decent chance of qualifying, regardless of how negative people choose to be.

50% might be a wee bit optimistic but not by much (if we get a home draw for the final). 

Edited November 18, 2019 by Texas Pete

[mrniaboc]

Just now, dohadeer said:

What do you mean by pot 1 and 2?

Like the pots that would be used to seed European teams for things like the Euros and Nations League etc. We're in pot 3 just now. 

[The_Dark_Knight]

7 minutes ago, mrniaboc said:

Haha yeah, it's as close as you'll get from the lad. In the last hour he has had a giant argument with Texas Pete because he can't admit he made a simple typo, and essentially told me I'm lucky he even got close to spelling my handle correctly, even though we have talked to each other almost daily for over a year 😂😂😂. 

This was the post that Pete replied to:

"I'm not surprised, to be honest. I knew a fair chunk of people would vote that we'd qualify... Didn't know that it was would so much, though. 

86.48% think we'll be in the final.

Cripes..."

Where's the typo?

[mrniaboc]

4 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

When did i make a typo?

Hahaha you crack me up. 

[The_Dark_Knight]

Just now, mrniaboc said:

Hahaha you crack me up. 

I know you like to always put the blame on me, but in this case, spot my mistake.

[mrniaboc]

1 minute ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

This was the post that Pete replied to:

"I'm not surprised, to be honest. I knew a fair chunk of people would vote that we'd qualify... Didn't know that it was would so much, though. 

86.48% think we'll be in the final.

Cripes..."

Where's the typo?

Are you serious? This is amazing. Try speaking it out load or something? 

[dohadeer]

2 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

Honestly, I'm not going to look into it as much as others will. It's a waste of time.

Suffice to say, bring on the WC qualifiers.

Come on, be fair please. You've quoted a percentage, which looks to be way off. Please clarify how you arrived at that percentage, because it looks like you plucked it out of thin air, to try and provoke an argument.

I think that even San Marino would have a better than 1 in 10,000 chance of coming through two knockout ties, at least one of which is at home. Anyone with the tiniest knowledge of football knows that upsets happen, particularly in one-off knockout ties. It's not a one in ten thousand sort of occurrence!

[mrniaboc]

1 minute ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

I know you like to always put the blame on me, but in this case, spot my mistake.

Not trying to blame you, it's silly that you and TP got into the argument you did. But I find it funny you're missing your mistake. 

[The_Dark_Knight]

Just now, mrniaboc said:

Are you serious? This is amazing. Try speaking it out load or something? 

Ok. Spotted it.

But does the typo really make the sentence imposible to follow? He was being a bore.

[mrniaboc]

Just now, The_Dark_Knight said:

Ok. Spotted it.

But does the typo really make the sentence imposible to follow? He was being a bore.

Finally!

No, it's absolutely clear what you were trying to say. That's why it wasn't important! By why oh why oh why oh why did you spend three pages of a thread claiming you hadn't made a mistake, rather than just reading your message and admitting it? 

[The_Dark_Knight]

1 minute ago, mrniaboc said:

Not trying to blame you, it's silly that you and TP got into the argument you did. But I find it funny you're missing your mistake. 

No. I got it. Been bone-tired all day. I'd be astonished if it my only grammatically mistake.

Yeah, well, i got bored of his "It must be nice being able to look into the future" schtick. Twice he's said it to me, never once have i claimed to be able to look into the future.

[The_Dark_Knight]

1 minute ago, mrniaboc said:

Finally!

No, it's absolutely clear what you were trying to say. That's why it wasn't important! By why oh why oh why oh why did you spend three pages of a thread claiming you hadn't made a mistake, rather than just reading your message and admitting it? 

That isnt even what the argument was about. It was more about my saying that we have pretty much zero percent chance of qualifying.

As for the typo, would've been nice if he told me.

[Texas Pete]

15 minutes ago, mrniaboc said:

Haha yeah, it's as close as you'll get from the lad. In the last hour he has had a giant argument with Texas Pete because he can't admit he made a simple typo, and essentially told me I'm lucky he even got close to spelling my handle correctly, even though we have talked to each other almost daily for over a year 😂😂😂. 

I wouldn’t  say it was a giant argument. 

I once had an argument with TDK (or it may have been Chripper) that lasted about 6 hours with about 100 posts. That was fun. 

[The_Dark_Knight]

6 minutes ago, dohadeer said:

Come on, be fair please. You've quoted a percentage, which looks to be way off. Please clarify how you arrived at that percentage, because it looks like you plucked it out of thin air, to try and provoke an argument.

I think that even San Marino would have a better than 1 in 10,000 chance of coming through two knockout ties, at least one of which is at home. Anyone with the tiniest knowledge of football knows that upsets happen, particularly in one-off knockout ties. It's not a one in ten thousand sort of occurrence!

Trying to provoke an argument?

Mate, I'm not arguing about it. That's my opinion. The end.

[dohadeer]

6 minutes ago, mrniaboc said:

Like the pots that would be used to seed European teams for things like the Euros and Nations League etc. We're in pot 3 just now. 

Different pots for different tournaments, so it's a bit of a vague statement. Romania are currently the 17th-ranked team in Europe, from the FIFA world rankings, we're 29th.

Depending on what size of pots you're referring to, that would make us roughly a pot 3-4 team, and Romania a pot 2 team.

 

Also, there isn't any previous data that I can think off for one-off knockout ties like this, between European national teams, where one team has home advantage. It's a completely new format. Not only do we have to not lose, we have to come out on top, whether it be in 90 minutes, extra time, or penalties.

You'd hope we could do that against a team of Israel's level, and perhaps Bulgaria, but all the other potential opponents, we'd be pretty much 50/50 against, at home, and perhaps 35/65 dogs away.

[Texas Pete]

3 minutes ago, mrniaboc said:

Finally!

No, it's absolutely clear what you were trying to say. That's why it wasn't important! By why oh why oh why oh why did you spend three pages of a thread claiming you hadn't made a mistake, rather than just reading your message and admitting it? 

I’m not normally a grammar Nazi.

The only reason I pointed out his mistake was he quoted it back at me in his unpleasant style asking “what part of this did you not read” or something similar. 

[mrniaboc]

2 minutes ago, Texas Pete said:

I’m not normally a grammar Nazi.

The only reason I pointed out his mistake was he quoted it back at me in his unpleasant style asking “what part of this did you not read” or something similar. 

Yeah, I think it was the point where he started running both of your messages through online grammar checkers that he made his bed on this one hahaha. A very small hill to die on though. 

[Tartan Chris]

23 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

Because:

1. We have no chance of winning the playoffs.

2. Blooding a handful of players from the various youth teams, as soon as possible, will be beneficial on the long term.

I genuinely cannot wait till the playoffs are over and we can focus on the World Cup qualifers.

I agree on  the youth players but you'd have to very optmistic to think Gilmour, Johnson, Hornby and whoever else of the next crop is going to mature so quickly it's capable of at least second in the world cup group.

More realistic in that situation would be 2026 and perhaps more nations league play offs...

If everyone is fit in March, they are capable of beating Bulgaria if it's them and giving Serbia or Norway a decent game (less so if it's away).

[dohadeer]

16 minutes ago, Texas Pete said:

We’ll be favourites in the first match and if we are at home in the second match we won’t be much longer than evens to win it. Maybe 2/1 against if it’s Serbia. 

Granted, the bookies odds are stingier than the actual chances of something happening but we have a decent chance of qualifying, regardless of how negative people choose to be.

50% might be a wee bit optimistic but not by much (if we get a home draw for the final). 

We'd surely be 80/20 favourites to qualify against Israel, but we'd need to be over 60/40 favourites to qualify in the final, to make us 40% overall. You've already said that that's not the case. So I think that puts us at somewhere in the high-30% mark to qualify, EVEN WITH OUR MOST FAVOURABLE DRAW. Our least favourable draw would probably put us well under 20%.

[The_Dark_Knight]

Just now, Tartan Chris said:

I agree on  the youth players but you'd have to very optmistic to think Gilmour, Johnson, Hornby and whoever else of the next crop is going to mature so quickly it's capable of at least second in the world cup group.

More realistic in that situation would be 2026 and perhaps more nations league play offs...

If everyone is fit in March, they are capable of beating Bulgaria if it's them and giving Serbia or Norway a decent game (less so if it's away).

It's a fair point, but it's either promote the kids, from u17/19/21 level, or continue soldiering on with players that have failed so badly in this campaign. I'd rather lose, and experiment, than lose with the same lot of players.

I'm deadly serious when i say that, as a collective and individually, the u17s and u19s are technically far superior to the seniors.

[Orraloon]

2 hours ago, romanticscot said:

I could be wrong but I think it will be Bulgaria due to the fact that Finland auto qualified - Norway or Serbia cannot auto qualify so the next best placed team in League C is Bulgaria.  If they did it, A down to C it would be different.  

You're jist taking the fukin pish noo. 

[Tartan Chris]

No idea if this forum was going in 2003 but wonder what the percentage odds would've been on qualifying after the first leg play off v Holland. As we saw with the complete pasting in Amsterdam that might aswell have been a 0.0000001% chance.

Certainly more chance of getting through this play off.

[mrniaboc]

7 minutes ago, dohadeer said:

Different pots for different tournaments, so it's a bit of a vague statement. Romania are currently the 17th-ranked team in Europe, from the FIFA world rankings, we're 29th.

Depending on what size of pots you're referring to, that would make us roughly a pot 3-4 team, and Romania a pot 2 team.

 

Also, there isn't any previous data that I can think off for one-off knockout ties like this, between European national teams, where one team has home advantage. It's a completely new format. Not only do we have to not lose, we have to come out on top, whether it be in 90 minutes, extra time, or penalties.

You'd hope we could do that against a team of Israel's level, and perhaps Bulgaria, but all the other potential opponents, we'd be pretty much 50/50 against, at home, and perhaps 35/65 dogs away.

Fair point! I genuinely didn't realise Romania were now ranked that much higher than us. Only know they were a Group C Nations League team and didn't win their league, so assumed they would be pot three for qualifiers etc.