The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, dohadeer said: Why not bet on us failing to qualify, you are getting around a 10-15% return on an investment which is 99.998% guaranteed? I probably will, to be honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: Ummm... God? Because the mind of a few, or one, can sometimes better the minds of the many. What levels of research/analysis have you done that would put you ahead of the bookies levels of expertise? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, The_Dark_Knight said: I probably will, to be honest. Could you upload the evidence on here when you do please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, dohadeer said: What levels of research/analysis have you done that would put you ahead of the bookies levels of expertise? 30+ years of supporting Scotland. Plus I'm a medium... Not a fortune teller... A medium size... That tends to give me an insight into such matters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, dohadeer said: Could you upload the evidence on here when you do please? Nah. I don't think I'll be doing that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 minute ago, The_Dark_Knight said: 30+ years of supporting Scotland. Plus I'm a medium... Not a fortune teller... A medium size... That tends to give me an insight into such matters. I have a similar amount of time supporting Scotland, but that fact certainly doesn't put either of us anywhere near the levels of expertise that the bookies have. As I keep saying, they put millions of pounds on the line every time they make a probability calculation, so they have to put enough research and analysis into it to get the prediction down to a small margin of error. They have never been as wrong before as you are claiming they are here. If they were, they would now be out of business. It simply isn't possible for the bookies to have incorrectly calculated a percentage, by a factor of ten thousand, as you claim. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: Nah. I don't think I'll be doing that. No, neither did I. Presumably neither did anyone else on here, if people would wish to confirm/deny that belief. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, dohadeer said: I have a similar amount of time supporting Scotland, but that fact certainly doesn't put either of us anywhere near the levels of expertise that the bookies have. As I keep saying, they put millions of pounds on the line every time they make a probability calculation, so they have to put enough research and analysis into it to get the prediction down to a small margin of error. They have never been as wrong before as you are claiming they are here. If they were, they would now be out of business. It simply isn't possible for the bookies to have incorrectly calculated a percentage, by a factor of ten thousand, as you claim. You seem to be taking this rather to heart. It's nothing personal, I can assure you. Are you a bookie or something? No. The bookies have it wrong. Trust me. If you've ever trusted me in your life, trust me on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 minute ago, The_Dark_Knight said: You seem to be taking this rather to heart. It's nothing personal, I can assure you. Are you a bookie or something? No. The bookies have it wrong. Trust me. If you've ever trusted me in your life, trust me on this one. Taking what to heart? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 minute ago, dohadeer said: No, neither did I. Presumably neither did anyone else on here, if people would wish to confirm/deny that belief. Not because I won't place a bet, because as i said, I probably will. The reason I won't upload evidence is that I'm a private personal and i don't go nuts with the social media, etc. I don't advertise my life online, not even on a one-on-one basis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, dohadeer said: Taking what to heart? Either, my thinking that Scotland won't qualify or my insistence that, in this case, the bookies are wrong. Edited November 20, 2019 by The_Dark_Knight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: Not because I won't place a bet, because as i said, I probably will. The reason I won't upload evidence is that I'm a private personal and i don't go nuts with the social media, etc. I don't advertise my life online, not even on a one-on-one basis. In fact, come to think of it...... The bookies made us favourites to beat Cyprus at the weekend. We did. You predicted that we would lose 2-0. The bookies made us strong favourites to beat Kazakhstan tonight. We did, by two goals. You predicted that we would lose 2-0. The evidence so far, is pointing to the bookies having a greater level of expertise on the subject than you. Maybe you have evidence to help prove otherwise, but so far, your claims look to be false. Edited November 20, 2019 by dohadeer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 (edited) 12 minutes ago, dohadeer said: In fact, come to think of it...... The bookies made us favourites to beat Cyprus at the weekend. We did. You predicted that we would lose 2-0. The bookies made us strong favourites to beat Kazakhstan tonight. We did by two goals. You predicted that we would lose 2-0. The evidence so far, is pointing to the bookies having a greater level of expertise on the subject than you. Maybe you have evidence to help prove otherwise, but so far, your claims look to be false. Last night Latvia (143 in the world) played Austria (25 in the world). Austria were strong favourites to win, at odds of 1.16, meanwhile, Latvia were strong outsiders at a whopping 21.00. Latvia won 1:0 If I looked deeper we could find more instances were the bookies got it wrong. How about Tennis? Tsitsipas beat Federer in the ATP Tour semi-final. Federer was strong favourite at 1.30. How about Djokovic getting beat at the hands of Federer, when Djokovic was the favourite at 1.36? There are hundreds and thousands of instances where the bookies are wrong, on a weekly basis. Edited November 20, 2019 by The_Dark_Knight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: Last night Latvia (143 in the world) played Austria (25 in the world). Austria were strong favourites to win, at odds of 1.16, meanwhile, Latvia were strong outsiders at a whopping 21.00. Latvia won 1:0 If I looked deeper we coud find more instances were the bookies got it wrong. How about Tennis? Tsitsipas beat Federer in the ATP Tour semi-final. Federer was strong favourite at 1.30. How about Djokovic getting by at the hands of Federer, when Djokovic was the favourite at 1.36? There are hundreds and thousands of instances were the bookies are wrong, on a weekly basis. That doesn't mean the bookies got it wrong. From the odds you quoted, the bookies gave Latvia around a 3% chance of winning, and Austria around an 80% chance. That means just that. They think that Austria win the fixture 80% of the time, and Latvia win the fixture 3% of the time. It doesn't mean Austria's percentage is way higher, so Austria are guaranteed to win. Otherwise they wouldn't offer any odds. Tonight was one of the 3% of times that Latvia win. There's no mistake there by the bookies, just a rare win by an underdog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 minute ago, dohadeer said: That doesn't mean the bookies got it wrong. From the odds you quoted, the bookies gave Latvia around a 3% chance of winning, and Austria around an 80% chance. That means just that. They think that Austria win the fixture 80% of the time, and Latvia win the fixture 3% of the time. It doesn't mean Austria's percentage is way higher, so Austria are guaranteed to win. Otherwise they wouldn't offer any odds. Tonight was one of the 3% of times that Latvia win. There's no mistake there by the bookies, just a rare win by an underdog. And if you look at the predictions for the two matches against Russia and one against Belgium, i wasn't all that far off. I predicted three defeats, that we'd let in 10 goals and score none. The only thing i got wrong was our one goal: https://www.tamb.net/forum/index.php?/topic/14047-predictions-for-the-next-three-matches/&do=findComment&comment=536476 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: And if you look at the predictions for the two matches against Russia and one against Belgium, i wasn't all that far off. I predicted three defeats, that we'd let in 10 goals and score none. The only thing i got wrong was our one goal: https://www.tamb.net/forum/index.php?/topic/14047-predictions-for-the-next-three-matches/&do=findComment&comment=536476 Thanks, I didn't know that you had also made those predictions. I'll add those to my evidence. Obviously, at this stage the evidence is totally pointing to your numbers being wrong and the bookies numbers, which are similar to several posters on here, being correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 minute ago, dohadeer said: Thanks, I didn't know that you had also made those predictions. I'll add those to my evidence. Obviously, at this stage the evidence is totally pointing to your numbers being wrong and the bookies numbers, which are similar to several posters on here, being correct. Thank you. I think you'll find that it's quite obvious that i know more than most people, and yes, even the bookies. Hell, there where people in that thread predicting that we'd beat Russia and Belgium. The odds of us conceding exactly 10 and scoring 0-1 must've been astronomical. So, you see, there's little wriggle room to suggest that our chances of qualifying are more than what I declared (0.002%). No wriggle room, in fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: Thank you. I think you'll find that it's quite obvious that i know more than most people, and yes, even the bookies. Hell, there where people in that thread predicting that we'd beat Russia and Belgium. The odds of us conceding exactly 10 and scoring 0-1 must've been astronomical. So, you see, there's little wriggle room to suggest that our chances of qualifying are more than what I declared (0.002%). No wriggle room, in fact. Why would the odds of that have been 'astronomical?' Also, how would football or any other competitive sport be of any interest to anyone if we knew the outcomes of individual matches before they were played to a probability of 99.5%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 I mean, I suppose the weight would shift if the teams we played in the semi and in the final all came down with food poisoning on the night of the matches... But really, what are the odds of that happening? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: I mean, I suppose the weight would shift if the teams we played in the semi and in the final all came down with food poisoning on the night of the matches... But really, what are the odds of that happening? Your predictions for Saturday and last night show that you massively underestimate Scotland's abilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 minute ago, dohadeer said: Why would the odds of that have been 'astronomical?' Also, how would football or any other competitive sport be of any interest to anyone if we knew the outcomes of individual matches before they were played to a probability of 99.5%? The odds of all that happening would've been "astronomical" because it was over a prediction over the course of 270 minutes. I'm not sure what the odds actually were, for those amounts of goals to be scored, but i can guess and say quite large. Unless you know. If you do know, please share. Also, show your work. Exactly. Which is why (aside of making this thread) i have zero interest in the playoffs... Oh wait... I suppose my interest is 0.002%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, dohadeer said: Your predictions for Saturday and last night show that you massively underestimate Scotland's abilities. Predictions aside, we let in two goals against Cyprus and Kazakhstan. If you honestly think we'll be able to beat Norway or Serbia then, either you're nuts or you just don't know anything about football. By debating with me so long, essentially, you're saying that we might qualify. Yes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, The_Dark_Knight said: Predictions aside, we let in two goals against Cyprus and Kazakhstan. If you honestly think we'll be able to beat Norway or Serbia then, either you're nuts or you just don't know anything about football. By debating with me so long, essentially, you're saying that we might qualify. Yes? I've told you already that I don't think we'll progress past Norway or Serbia, if we get that far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, dohadeer said: I've told you already that I don't think we'll progress past Norway or Serbia, if we get that far. Yes, i know that you told me, but i want you to give me your prediction in the form of a percent. In your opinion, if we get to the final, what percent would you give us winning? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 minute ago, The_Dark_Knight said: Yes, i know that you told me, but i want you to give me your prediction in the form of a percent. In your opinion, if we get to the final, what percent would you give us winning? How do I calculate the percentage chance of one football team progressing over another? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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