dohadeer Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: Trying to provoke an argument? Mate, I'm not arguing about it. That's my opinion. The end. Please can you explain where you get the specific probability of 1 in 10,000 from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 Just now, dohadeer said: Please can you explain where you get the specific probability of 1 in 10,000 from? No. You claimed that I'm being provocative to start an argument. I'm doing no such thing. I really couldn't care less if no one replies to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terry Munro Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 1 hour ago, magicTs said: Might be in the minority but with home advantage I think Norway might well beat Serbia. I do too. If we're drawn away in the final then I'm actually going to book Edinburgh to Oslo on Friday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: No. You claimed that I'm being provocative to start an argument. I'm doing no such thing. I really couldn't care less if no one replies to it. Sorry, I think you've misunderstood me! That wasn't what I meant/said. I said it looks like that from the number you quoted (1 in 10,000), but I assumed you would have an explanation for it, which would show that it wasn't just a made up number. Sorry for the confusion, we're all Scotland fans, I'm not here to argue with other Scotland fans! Please can you clarify where you got the number from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 Just now, dohadeer said: Sorry, I think you've misunderstood me! That wasn't what I meant/said. I said it looks like that from the number you quoted (1 in 10,000), but I assumed you would have an explanation for it, which would show that it wasn't just a made up number. Sorry for the confusion, we're all Scotland fans, I'm not here to argue with other Scotland fans! Please can you clarify where you got the number from? If you really want a reason why i came up with the number, fine, I'll give it a shot. It's a classic example of Munchhausen's Trilemma: either the reason is predicated on a series of sub-reasons, leading to an infinite regression; or it tracks back to arbitrary axiomatic statements; or it's ultimately circular: i.e., Scotland have 0.001% chance of qualifying because Scotland have a 0.001% chance of qualifying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: If you really want a reason why i came up with the number, fine, I'll give it a shot. It's a classic example of Munchhausen's Trilemma: either the reason is predicated on a series of sub-reasons, leading to an infinite regression; or it tracks back to arbitrary axiomatic statements; or it's ultimately circular: i.e., Scotland have 0.001% chance of qualifying because Scotland have a 0.001% chance of qualifying. It’s not circular at all. Why be sarcastic with me, when I’m just asking a fair question?! I don’t get that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texas Pete Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 26 minutes ago, dohadeer said: We'd surely be 80/20 favourites to qualify against Israel, but we'd need to be over 60/40 favourites to qualify in the final, to make us 40% overall. You've already said that that's not the case. So I think that puts us at somewhere in the high-30% mark to qualify, EVEN WITH OUR MOST FAVOURABLE DRAW. Our least favourable draw would probably put us well under 20%. Yeah I did say 50% was a bit optimistic but I’m the eternal optimist. What can I say? The main point is we are nowhere near as low as TDK suggests. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, dohadeer said: It’s not circular at all. Why be sarcastic with me, when I’m just asking a fair question?! I don’t get that. I wasnt being sarcastic. Ok. I'll try another way. Scotland is at it's lowest ebbe, the players are dropping like flies, pulling out of squads and retiring, etc. We have two goalkeepers who play in league one in England. Zero center back worth a damn. No right back. Zero strikers with any semblance of talent. We have zero chance of qualifying. Technically, that's not the case, as the playoffs are still to be played, but for all intents and purposes, we're making up the numbers. If you want a number, fine. Find out the smallest percentage known to human beings. That's our chances. Edited November 18, 2019 by The_Dark_Knight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrniaboc Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 1 minute ago, The_Dark_Knight said: If you want a number, fine. Find out the smallest percentage known to human beings. That's our chances. 0.002% ammonium ferric citrate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 Just now, mrniaboc said: 0.002% ammonium ferric citrate. That. That's our chances of qualifying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 19, 2019 Author Share Posted November 19, 2019 (edited) 21 minutes ago, dohadeer said: It’s not circular at all. Why be sarcastic with me, when I’m just asking a fair question?! I don’t get that. I get what you're asking me. I suppose I am plucking a number out of thin air. There's no algorithm or math workings behind it. I truly think there's more chance of a UFO landing on the roof of my nearest RBS branch than Scotland qualifying via the playoffs. If people don't like it? Fine. Don't reply. Put me on ignore. Make a Voodoo doll of me and do horrible things to it, etc. Edited November 19, 2019 by The_Dark_Knight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrniaboc Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 24 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: If you really want a reason why i came up with the number, fine, I'll give it a shot. It's a classic example of Munchhausen's Trilemma: either the reason is predicated on a series of sub-reasons, leading to an infinite regression; or it tracks back to arbitrary axiomatic statements; or it's ultimately circular: i.e., Scotland have 0.001% chance of qualifying because Scotland have a 0.001% chance of qualifying. Awesome to see Munchausen's Trilemma make an appearance on the TAMB! You've slightly misused it here though, as Scotland having a 0.001% chance of qualifying isn't a ground truth, and has no underlying mathematical proof. But forget that. I get what you're saying. In your view our chances of qualifying are extremely slim. I think you're right about that. But I still think we've got a great chance at getting to the playoff final. Then it's a cup game. Anything can happen! Please don't give it a miss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: I wasnt being sarcastic. Ok. I'll try another way. Scotland is at it's lowest ebbe, the players are dropping like flies, pulling out of squads and retiring, etc. We have two goalkeepers who play in league one in England. Zero center back worth a damn. No right back. Zero strikers with any semblance of talent. We have zero chance of qualifying. Technically, that's not the case, as the playoffs are still to be played, but for all intents and purposes, we're making up the numbers. If you want a number, fine. Find out the smallest percentage known to human beings. That's our chances. All your points about our team are spot on. I totally agree with your analysis of how bad we are. We are a total mess, with many players who are nowhere near the usual level required to qualify for a major finals. However, you are misunderstanding something about statistics/percentages/football/the Nations League play-off system. Your 0.01% claim, is saying that we have a 1 in 100 chance of progressing through the first leg and another 1 in 100 chance of progressing through the second leg. Look at any football competition/league in the world. Even the worst team you could imagine - which we are nowhere near - would progress through way more than 1 in 100 home knockout ties. If those sort of percentages were correct, then that team would quickly cease to exist, because it wouldn’t be worth their while turning up! Even someone like San Marino, who I believe are the lowest-ranked side in Europe, would have significantly higher qualification chances than the ones which you quoted. I don’t think that there isn’t any team anywhere who have lost 100 home games in a row. Those are the odds you have stated. We are bad but not that bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 19, 2019 Author Share Posted November 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, mrniaboc said: Awesome to see Munchausen's Trilemma make an appearance on the TAMB! You've slightly misused it here though, as Scotland having a 0.001% chance of qualifying isn't a ground truth, and has no underlying mathematical proof. But forget that. I get what you're saying. In your view our chances of qualifying are extremely slim. I think you're right about that. But I still think we've got a great chance at getting to the playoff final. Then it's a cup game. Anything can happen! Please don't give it a miss. I try to turn the ol' noodle on from time to time... Even if some clever clogs goes ahead and proves me wrong. It's actually creating yet another chance for us to screw things up. Sometimes i really think the Universe is out to get Scotland, both in sport and in politics. I honestly don't myself being enthused when the matches come up. These matches are coming up, nothing we can do to avoid it, so I say that we promote as many players from the younger teams as we can... Assuming that they're ready. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 19, 2019 Author Share Posted November 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, dohadeer said: All your points about our team are spot on. I totally agree with your analysis of how bad we are. We are a total mess, with many players who are nowhere near the usual level required to qualify for a major finals. However, you are misunderstanding something about statistics/percentages/football/the Nations League play-off system. Your 0.01% claim, is saying that we have a 1 in 100 chance of progressing through the first leg and another 1 in 100 chance of progressing through the second leg. Look at any football competition/league in the world. Even the worst team you could imagine - which we are nowhere near - would progress through way more than 1 in 100 home knockout ties. If those sort of percentages were correct, then that team would quickly cease to exist, because it wouldn’t be worth their while turning up! Even someone like San Marino, who I believe are the lowest-ranked side in Europe, would have significantly higher qualification chances than the ones which you quoted. I don’t think that there isn’t any team anywhere who have lost 100 home games in a row. Those are the odds you have stated. We are bad but not that bad. I get it. I do. Mathematically my predictions arent accurate. Of course they aren't. Realistically, we do have more than a 0.002% chance. But football isn't played on chalkboards and on mathematic equations. It's played on grass. And for that reason, and for the reasons I have given, I'd actually rather see us pull out of the playoffs and focus on the World Cup qualifiers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 (edited) 9 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: I get it. I do. Mathematically my predictions arent accurate. Of course they aren't. Realistically, we do have more than a 0.002% chance. But football isn't played on chalkboards and on mathematic equations. It's played on grass. And for that reason, and for the reasons I have given, I'd actually rather see us pull out of the playoffs and focus on the World Cup qualifiers. Please don’t deliberately write such blatantly incorrect statements in future then. We’re all Scotland fans, please treat other posters with respect. Deliberately writing hugely inaccurate statements is only going to cause arguments and waste other people’s time and energy. That isn’t a very nice way to behave. Edited November 19, 2019 by dohadeer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 19, 2019 Author Share Posted November 19, 2019 39 minutes ago, dohadeer said: Please don’t deliberately write such blatantly incorrect statements in future then. We’re all Scotland fans, please treat other posters with respect. Deliberately writing hugely inaccurate statements is only going to cause arguments and waste other people’s time and energy. That isn’t a very nice way to behave. I'm saying, without reservation, we will not qualify for Euro 2020. The maths and facts and figures are irrelevant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 1 minute ago, The_Dark_Knight said: I'm saying, without reservation, we will not qualify for Euro 2020. The maths and facts and figures are irrelevant. You’ve admitted to posting deliberately incorrect statements less than 24 hours ago, and you’re clearly doing so again. We are unlikely to qualify. It isn’t a definite fact that we won’t qualify, you know that as well as everyone else on here, you’ve admitted that, and are now contradicting yourself. The ‘maths and facts and figures’ are clearly very relevant, given that there are now only two knockout ties, at least one of which is at home, between us and qualification. The sad thing here is that I support Scotland like you do. I also agree with your analysis of how bad we are as a team. I also agree with you that we are unlikely to qualify and in believing that we won’t qualify. However, your blatant and continued exaggerations and deliberate lies are no way to conduct yourself and no way to try and get your point across. Please be fair and write with honesty and respect for others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 19, 2019 Author Share Posted November 19, 2019 Just now, dohadeer said: You’ve admitted to posting deliberately incorrect statements less than 24 hours ago, and you’re clearly doing so again. We are unlikely to qualify. It isn’t a definite fact that we won’t qualify, you know that as well as everyone else on here, you’ve admitted that, and are now contradicting yourself. The ‘maths and facts and figures’ are clearly very relevant, given that there are now only two knockout ties, at least one of which is at home, between us and qualification. The sad thing here is that I support Scotland like you do. I also agree with your analysis of how bad we are as a team. I also agree with you that we are unlikely to qualify and in believing that we won’t qualify. However, your blatant and continued exaggerations and deliberate lies are no way to conduct yourself and no way to try and get your point across. Please be fair and write with honesty and respect for others. I'm conveying my opinion. I may be exaggerating a tad, but there's a gargantuan difference between exaggerating and lying. If i say that we won't qualify, that's not a lie, simply because it hasnt happened yet. However, in my opinion, we won't qualify. It's akin to my saying that our chances of qualifying are 0.002%, it's not fact, but it's not really a lie, either. It's an exaggeration that's based on my opinion. An opinion, whichevervway you want to look at it, cannot be a lie. If someone did take my 0.002% to be a solid fact, I have some "magic beans" available... Is this playoff a distraction? Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: I'm conveying my opinion. I may be exaggerating a tad, but there's a gargantuan difference between exaggerating and lying. If i say that we won't qualify, that's not a lie, simply because it hasnt happened yet. However, in my opinion, we won't qualify. It's akin to my saying that our chances of qualifying are 0.002%, it's not fact, but it's not really a lie, either. It's an exaggeration that's based on my opinion. An opinion, whichevervway you want to look at it, cannot be a lie. If someone did take my 0.002% to be a solid fact, I have some "magic beans" available... Is this playoff a distraction? Yes. You said that you believed our chances of qualifying to be 0.01% and later admitted that that wasn’t true. That is lying. Whether you are said to be lying or exaggerating, neither of those behaviours are constructive to a discussion, are they? Those aren’t fair, honest or respectful ways to try and make your point. If you have to resort to those behaviours, then it makes your point look flimsy, and means people have no way of knowing whether any of what you say is genuine or not. Just be truthful, it’s a lot easier. Life’s too short for us to be trying to second-guess other Scotland fans, and have to wade through lies and exaggerations to get to the real facts! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 19, 2019 Author Share Posted November 19, 2019 Just now, dohadeer said: You said that you believed our chances of qualifying to be 0.01% and later admitted that that wasn’t true. That is lying. Whether you are said to be lying or exaggerating, neither of those behaviours are constructive to a discussion, are they? Those aren’t fair, honest or respectful ways to try and make your point. If you have to resort to those behaviours, then it makes your point look flimsy, and means people have no way of knowing whether any of what you say is genuine or not. Just be truthful, it’s a lot easier. Life’s too short for us to be trying to second-guess other Scotland fans, and have to wade through lies and exaggerations to get to the real facts! Nah. I wasn't really trying to sell a "point". It's not based on fact. Not once did I sell it as fact, in fairness to me. Honestly, you're saying that I'm being disrespectful to people here, but in actual fact, by suggesting that I'm "lying" on here, you're pretty much saying that there are people here who would believe my "0.002%" thing, therefore, you're saying that there are truly some stupid people here. Try not to be so literal. I mean, if i said that i was "so hungry, i could eat a horse", would you call the RSPCA? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 (edited) 30 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: Nah. I wasn't really trying to sell a "point". It's not based on fact. Not once did I sell it as fact, in fairness to me. Honestly, you're saying that I'm being disrespectful to people here, but in actual fact, by suggesting that I'm "lying" on here, you're pretty much saying that there are people here who would believe my "0.002%" thing, therefore, you're saying that there are truly some stupid people here. Try not to be so literal. I mean, if i said that i was "so hungry, i could eat a horse", would you call the RSPCA? When you state a probability, that is very much something to be taken literally. That isn’t a metaphor or a figure of speech, that’s the statistical chance of something happening, based on evidence. You can’t backtrack and wriggle out of that by claiming your comments shouldn’t be taken seriously. We are in a discussion thread about where we will finish in the playoffs. I would assume that all sane people on here would like to hear people’s real opinions on that topic, rather than lies or exaggerations. ’Give us your best lies and exaggerations about how we will do in the playoffs’ would be a pretty boring and pointless thread. Come to think of it, asking people to lie and exaggerate on any topic is a waste of time. I’m interested in your honest and accurate analysis here, without any exaggeration. If we draw Israel in the playoff semi-final, what do you think are our chances of progressing through that round and into the playoff final? Edited November 19, 2019 by dohadeer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vanderark14 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 8 hours ago, Texas Pete said: Yeah I did say 50% was a bit optimistic but I’m the eternal optimist. What can I say? The main point is we are nowhere near as low as TDK suggests. Never mind percentages, its blind optimism that makes football fun 🤣 if we win tonight there will be an exciting build up to the playoffs. Maybe not the same level of excitement in the run up to the Italy match at hampden in 07 or the playoff v the dutch but we would be two matches away from a tournament. I don't care how low people think we have sunken, its two matches, one of which will be at home. bring it on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vanderark14 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 8 hours ago, mrniaboc said: Awesome to see Munchausen's Trilemma make an appearance on the TAMB! You've slightly misused it here though, as Scotland having a 0.001% chance of qualifying isn't a ground truth, and has no underlying mathematical proof. But forget that. I get what you're saying. In your view our chances of qualifying are extremely slim. I think you're right about that. But I still think we've got a great chance at getting to the playoff final. Then it's a cup game. Anything can happen! Please don't give it a miss. you and I have different opinions on what constitutes awesome 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParisInAKilt Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 (edited) 7 hours ago, The_Dark_Knight said: Is this playoff a distraction? Yes. How so? Edited November 19, 2019 by ParisInAKilt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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