Auld_Reekie Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Aye. My mum told me my uncle (SNP activist) phoned my other uncle (No campaigner) a couple of days before the vote to concede defeat. Had it on good authority from party insiders that the cause was lost... That would certainly tie in with events on the night. From 10pm, not one Yes supporter was on the TV that I seen. Instead we were treated to a conveyor belt of No politicians looking very smug. YouGov claiming 99% certainty was the clincher. Then there was Salmond cancelling his appearance at his count early on and then the awful photo of him on way to airport. Cameron called his 7am press conference after only 1 or 2 results indicating he was confident of outcome. The entire night was a car crash and I won't ever forget it. I don't necessarily buy the conspiracy theories but I will always struggle to understand the confidence with which the referendum was won by the No campaign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OLAS Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 They're shyting it. Anything for a bit of whataboutery. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-29425843 A group of four people were relieved of their duties at Highland Council's count in Dingwall on 18 September following complaints.It was understood some were seen giving the thumbs up and high-fiving each other when "Yes" votes were opened. It was claimed boos were heard when "No" votes were opened. Nice one, BBC! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giblet Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 That would certainly tie in with events on the night. From 10pm, not one Yes supporter was on the TV that I seen. Instead we were treated to a conveyor belt of No politicians looking very smug. YouGov claiming 99% certainty was the clincher. Then there was Salmond cancelling his appearance at his count early on and then the awful photo of him on way to airport. Cameron called his 7am press conference after only 1 or 2 results indicating he was confident of outcome. The entire night was a car crash and I won't ever forget it. I don't necessarily buy the conspiracy theories but I will always struggle to understand the confidence with which the referendum was won by the No campaign. Throughout the day at the polling station, I didnt get the feel of a mass move to YES. Admittedly I was in Edinburgh West but apart from the Council estates of Kirkliston and Ratho, got a definite vibe that something was going awry. Interestingly, we got called off around 4pm from door knocking to getting the vote out. We were told to head to polling stations to get as big a presence as possible, only problem was, vast majority of people by dinner time had already voted. Throughout the day at the polling station when I was there, YES were outnumbered which is crazy considering the size of our grassroots verses them. Just little things like only being given 2 A boards whilst the No crowd had 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Meanwhile from the other side... http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/highland-council-staff-celebrated-yes-votes-1-3558605 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Aye. My mum told me my uncle (SNP activist) phoned my other uncle (No campaigner) a couple of days before the vote to concede defeat. Had it on good authority from party insiders that the cause was lost... Based on postal votes. I was told that on the day, people who actually went to the polling booths, Yes was ahead slightly. About 52/48 or 53/47. But the postal votes were so heavily weighted in favour of no that it won them the vote. Postal votes were at least 60/40 no if not 70/30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintlyscot Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Throughout the day at the polling station, I didnt get the feel of a mass move to YES. Admittedly I was in Edinburgh West but apart from the Council estates of Kirkliston and Ratho, got a definite vibe that something was going awry. Interestingly, we got called off around 4pm from door knocking to getting the vote out. We were told to head to polling stations to get as big a presence as possible, only problem was, vast majority of people by dinner time had already voted. Throughout the day at the polling station when I was there, YES were outnumbered which is crazy considering the size of our grassroots verses them. Just little things like only being given 2 A boards whilst the No crowd had 5. This. The little things all add-up. The three or four polling stations I visited all had Fewer YES A boards than NO. We also locally had a shortage of rosettes, badges etc along with a very tight rota to cover the polling stations. I had a feeling midmorning that things were going awry. We need to get these things sorted for the general election. Also, activists need more detailed information and told who and what to target. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jailender Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 I think the Yes side began to believe their own hype, to the exclusion of thinking that they were actually not in as good a position as they had thought. In the part of the highlands I live, the number of No's was surprising to me, but I still thought that Yes would prevail, mainly based on the profile of the campaign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 I noticed in the south side of Glasgow, 100s of "No Thanks" signs were put up beside the roads on the night before the vote. Based on postal votes. I was told that on the day, people who actually went to the polling booths, Yes was ahead slightly. About 52/48 or 53/47. But the postal votes were so heavily weighted in favour of no that it won them the vote. Postal votes were at least 60/40 no if not 70/30. If Yes got 53% on the day, postal vote results would need to be in the region of 85% No! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShedTA Posted October 2, 2014 Author Share Posted October 2, 2014 I think the Yes side began to believe their own hype, to the exclusion of thinking that they were actually not in as good a position as they had thought. In the part of the highlands I live, the number of No's was surprising to me, but I still thought that Yes would prevail, mainly based on the profile of the campaign. maybe, but at the end of the day they only lost it by 200,000 votes across the whole piece. 5%. pretty close despite what the media tell us was a resounding No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glasgowmancity Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 maybe, but at the end of the day they only lost it by 200,000 votes across the whole piece. 5%. pretty close despite what the media tell us was a resounding No. I thought it was 400,000? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 I thought it was 400,000? Possibly talking in terms of swing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UPROAR Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 maybe, but at the end of the day they only lost it by 200,000 votes across the whole piece. 5%. pretty close despite what the media tell us was a resounding No. the finish line was 192,000 votes away for us. So the difference is twice that but basically we only had to persuade 192k more people to vote Yes instead of No this was heart-achingly close and I can assure you with 2-4 weeks to go we were ahead. It swung in the last 10 days or so... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jailender Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 How can you say " I can assure you" with confidence, unless you spoke to every individual who could vote, and then also take them at their word? I think Yes mis-read the situation, with the resulting consequence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Based on postal votes. I was told that on the day, people who actually went to the polling booths, Yes was ahead slightly. About 52/48 or 53/47. But the postal votes were so heavily weighted in favour of no that it won them the vote. Postal votes were at least 60/40 no if not 70/30. That is what I was told at a meeting where they had 'confidential data.' We only saw a breakdown of local area boxes but were told that was the picture for the nation as a whole. A narrow Yes win at the polling stations on the day but postal votes killed it. We had to hand it back in after and were warned about putting it online etc. (Sharing with TAMB is an exception) Might have been total rubbish stats mind! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 That is what I was told at a meeting where they had 'confidential data.' We only saw a breakdown of local area boxes but were told that was the picture for the nation as a whole. A narrow Yes win at the polling stations on the day but postal votes killed it. We had to hand it back in after and were warned about putting it online etc. (Sharing with TAMB is an exception) Might have been total rubbish stats mind! Doing some rough calcs giving Yes about the narrowest possible win (50.00001%), you're still needing 75% No from postals to reach the final result... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grim Jim Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 I still wonder that 20% of the votes were by post. What is the usual proportion at elections? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jailender Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 I was really surprised at the number of people I know who used postal votes, and for no obvious reason, other than it seemed easier ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 I still wonder that 20% of the votes were by post. What is the usual proportion at elections? I believe the last UK General Election saw around 19% of the vote being by postal vote. At the last Scottish Election, it was just over 20% I think. So on paper, the proportion looks about a similar level. The percentage actually returned was very high though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jailender Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 I would imagine that if you were motivated enough to ask for a postal vote, you would be very likely to use it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewelk Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 I believe the last UK General Election saw around 19% of the vote being by postal vote. At the last Scottish Election, it was just over 20% I think. So on paper, the proportion looks about a similar level. The percentage actually returned was very high though. Percentage 'returned' or percentage 'put in the bin'? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UPROAR Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 How can you say " I can assure you" with confidence, unless you spoke to every individual who could vote, and then also take them at their word? I think Yes mis-read the situation, with the resulting consequence. It's only a turn of phrase expressing my confidence we were ahead. We were ahead amongst decides in my view at that point. We saw lots of evidence of undecideds turning to No in the last 10 days something we had not seen before..... I think Yes made some mistakes of course - not persuading the middle class professionals of the enormous opportunity they would have had was one example..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 When I saw this thread title my first thought was "What has that count Alistair Darling been claiming for now?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maq Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Looks like the police are investgating Ruth's comments http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29489288 Doubt anything will be done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Looks like the police are investgating Ruth's comments http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29489288 Doubt anything will be done I wonder why it has taken a whole week for them to come to that decision? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OLAS Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 I wonder why it has taken a whole week for them to come to that decision? Lodge meeting was last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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